Capper Al
07-17-2011, 08:38 AM
I'm finally zeroing in on how to wager. I've been all over the place trying different methods until recently. Been the straight win bettor, been the wheel, played the believed value horse, never realizing what I really only knew was that my top pick was likely to win about 25 to 30 percent or hit the board about 60 to 70 percent. My second and third picks would hit the board less than my top pick. Here's how it's working now:
Value comes to me. I don't go after value. (This is bigger than it sounds.)
My handicapping has been focused on picking winners not place or show horses. My second choice is more likely to win if my top pick doesn't go for the win, but is likely to place if another horse dominates.
I need an action bet because, first and foremost, I'm there to play.
Some examples: (top pick A, second pick B, third C, stay away from D. )
Also note for a place and/or exacta the horse must be ranked third or higher on the tote-board.
Field Size (FS) = 10, A 2/1, B 10/1, C 3/1. Action always $2 win on A. (Statistically, this doesn't make money. The range is between 70 to 125 percent return with an average around 90 percent ROI.) B is getting good odds, place bet. C is a skip.
FS = 8, A 4/1, B 4/1, C 2/1. Action A to win and place $2.00. Skip B and C.
FS = 6, A 6/1, B 6/1, C 3/1 One unit to Win/Place on A. Exacta box (A,B,C). Place on B. Skip C.
One last lesson learned, when you are a head it is not the tracks money. It is your money. Don't go crazy. Stay with the plan.
Value comes to me. I don't go after value. (This is bigger than it sounds.)
My handicapping has been focused on picking winners not place or show horses. My second choice is more likely to win if my top pick doesn't go for the win, but is likely to place if another horse dominates.
I need an action bet because, first and foremost, I'm there to play.
Some examples: (top pick A, second pick B, third C, stay away from D. )
Also note for a place and/or exacta the horse must be ranked third or higher on the tote-board.
Field Size (FS) = 10, A 2/1, B 10/1, C 3/1. Action always $2 win on A. (Statistically, this doesn't make money. The range is between 70 to 125 percent return with an average around 90 percent ROI.) B is getting good odds, place bet. C is a skip.
FS = 8, A 4/1, B 4/1, C 2/1. Action A to win and place $2.00. Skip B and C.
FS = 6, A 6/1, B 6/1, C 3/1 One unit to Win/Place on A. Exacta box (A,B,C). Place on B. Skip C.
One last lesson learned, when you are a head it is not the tracks money. It is your money. Don't go crazy. Stay with the plan.