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View Full Version : APX Race 5 7/16/2011


JimG
07-16-2011, 07:08 PM
Check out the huge odds drop during the running of the 5th race at Arlington today on #6 Kip Berries. At the quarter pole with a 3 length lead his odds dropped from 14-1 to 9-1. In my experience, usually low odds horses drop with late money.

I suspect someone was being allowed to bet while the races were going on. Check it out on the replay if you get a chance as the odds dropped as they headed to the turn. The odds on the other horses in the money behind him did not change.

Arlington gets lots of handle on a Saturday and that would have taken a sizeable bet or bets to affect the tote that much.

I would love to know if there was one big late bet from somewhere and when it was keyed in. Is this something HANA feels is worth looking into?

Thanks for your time,

Jim

lamboguy
07-16-2011, 07:24 PM
i think you will find that if you called arlington park, they will tell you that is the late simulcast money, i mean the real late simulcast money, and simulcast bettors are always smarter than those innocent people sitting in the stands over at arlington park

personally i have been watching and playing the power packed scarborough downs card this after noon

Striker
07-18-2011, 06:48 PM
Check out the huge odds drop during the running of the 5th race at Arlington today on #6 Kip Berries. At the quarter pole with a 3 length lead his odds dropped from 14-1 to 9-1. In my experience, usually low odds horses drop with late money.

I suspect someone was being allowed to bet while the races were going on. Check it out on the replay if you get a chance as the odds dropped as they headed to the turn. The odds on the other horses in the money behind him did not change.

Arlington gets lots of handle on a Saturday and that would have taken a sizeable bet or bets to affect the tote that much.

I would love to know if there was one big late bet from somewhere and when it was keyed in. Is this something HANA feels is worth looking into?

Thanks for your time,

Jim
I would call it closer to 10-1 than 9-1 as she paid 9.80-1. The only odds change that i could see was the #7 went from 5-1 to 6-1 during the race. So, I would want to know how much it would take to drop from 14-1 to about 10-1 on a horse?

DeanT
07-19-2011, 09:45 AM
Looks like 9-1 was about right, but the weird spike was weird. Here are the intervals.

BombsAway Bob
07-21-2011, 01:00 AM
Looks like 9-1 was about right, but the weird spike was weird. Here are the intervals.
what's kinda odd is that last flash of odds changes only bumped the pool
around $8,000, & the winner was the only "Market Mover"
Looks like a past-poster to these virgin eyes...

DeanT
07-21-2011, 09:58 AM
what's kinda odd is that last flash of odds changes only bumped the pool
around $8,000, & the winner was the only "Market Mover"
Looks like a past-poster to these virgin eyes...

Might be. But if a horse is betweek 5 and 9-1 for the whole betting cycle and you see 14-1 while loading, wouldn't it be possible that the 14-1 was an outlier, and value bettors just knocked him back down to fair?