FORMULA'S TOTE BOARD ANALYSIS JULY 16

[formula_2002]

some comments
The only race conditions I consider is, is the favorite, in my estimation, sufficiently over bet by the public, allowing for betting opportunities on the remaining part of the field.
Example: yesterday 07-15-2011 there were 25 plays, 9 winners, $1146 bet, $765 returned.
based on my odds line, there should have been at least 11 winners, returning more than $1146 . the average return should have been >=$104, it was actually $85.

the previous day, there were 18 plays, 9 winners, $792 bet, $861 returned.
based on my odds line, there should have been at least 8 winners, returning more than $792, the average return should have been >=$88, it was $96.

In a perfect environment. the number of winners should be at least bet size/100 , the average return should be at least $100.
and all results should be within a "statistically significant" expected range.

[formula_2002]

"SAF Clairwood
Race
6

Post
8:14

MTP
3


PGNO BET SIZE INDEX
1 0
2 13 0.6710
3 15 1.3227
4 28 0.8294
5 12 1.3355
6 9 1.1288
7 4 0.8054
8 13 1.3923
9 7 1.2277
10 0

[formula_2002]

"UK Newmarket
Race
1

Post
9:00

MTP
3


PGNO BET SIZE INDEX
1 46 0.9701
2 15 1.0275
3 19 1.0509
4 9 1.0141
5 11 0.9966
6 0

[formula_2002]

"SAF Clairwood
Race
6

Post
8:14

MTP
3


PGNO BET SIZE INDEX
1 0
2 13 0.6710
3 15 1.3227
4 28 0.8294
5 12 1.3355
6 9 1.1288
7 4 0.8054
8 13 1.3923
9 7 1.2277
10 0
SAF Clairwood - Race 6
# Win Place Show
2 $9.20 $3.20 $0.00
$57 bet $59.80 returned

[formula_2002]

"Monmouth
Race
2

Post
1:21

MTP
3


PGNO BET SIZE INDEX
1 10 0.9103
2 25 0.9083
3 8 0.9894
4 9 0.8401
5 0
6 11 0.8517
7 18 1.3460
8 18 1.1856
9 0

keep the 7

[formula_2002]

"Monmouth
Race
2

Post
1:21

MTP
3


PGNO BET SIZE INDEX
1 10 0.9103
2 25 0.9083
3 8 0.9894
4 9 0.8401
5 0
6 11 0.8517
7 18 1.3460
8 18 1.1856
9 0

keep the 7

Monmouth Park - Race 2
# Win Place Show
1 $18.80 $7.40 $4.80

$57 bet $94 ret

[formula_2002]

"Belmont
Race
5

Post
3:08

MTP
2


PGNO BET SIZE INDEX
1 4 1.6111
2 2 1.3287
3 48 0.8482
4 11 1.0735
5 9 1.5414
6 2 0.9670
7 4 1.3230
8 3 1.1148
9 16 1.1260
10 2 0.9424

[formula_2002]

"Belmont
Race
8

Post
4:44

MTP
2

$
PGNO BET SIZE INDEX
1 4 1.0415
2 3 1.0928
3 15 0.9599
4 29 1.1746
5 2 0.7155
6 0
7 1 0.7515
8 12 0.9801
9 28 0.9759
10 6 0.7799


and 6 on #13

[formula_2002]

"Belmont
Race
8

Post
4:44

MTP
2

$
PGNO BET SIZE INDEX
1 4 1.0415
2 3 1.0928
3 15 0.9599
4 29 1.1746
5 2 0.7155
6 0
7 1 0.7515
8 12 0.9801
9 28 0.9759
10 6 0.7799


and 6 on #13


Belmont - Race 8
# Win Place Show
8 $13.80 $6.20 $3.70
bet $48 ret $82.8

[formula_2002]

"Penn National
Race
6

Post
8:07

MTP
2


PGNO BET SIZE INDEX n20
1 19 0.9081 0.21
2 14 1.0353 0.14
3 11 0.8267 0.14
4 4 1.0251 0.04
5 4 1.2036 0.04
6 5 1.2292 0.04
7 7 0.7764 0.09
8 13 1.1770 0.11
9 13 1.0796 0.12
10 9 1.1558 0.08

[formula_2002]

"Hollywood
Race
9

Post
8:15

MTP
2


PGNO BET SIZE INDEX
1 3 1.2086
2 6 1.1797
3 15 1.2261
4 20 1.0600
5 14 1.1070
6 11 0.7981
7 5 0.8350
8 17 0.9330
9 11 0.8683
10 0

[formula_2002]

"Penn National
Race
6

Post
8:07

MTP
2


PGNO BET SIZE INDEX n20
1 19 0.9081 0.21
2 14 1.0353 0.14
3 11 0.8267 0.14
4 4 1.0251 0.04
5 4 1.2036 0.04
6 5 1.2292 0.04
7 7 0.7764 0.09
8 13 1.1770 0.11
9 13 1.0796 0.12
10 9 1.1558 0.08


Penn National - Race 6
# Win Place Show
3 $18.80 $6.60 $3.60
bet $67 ret $103.4

[formula_2002]

"Hollywood
Race
9

Post
8:15

MTP
2


PGNO BET SIZE INDEX
1 3 1.2086
2 6 1.1797
3 15 1.2261
4 20 1.0600
5 14 1.1070
6 11 0.7981
7 5 0.8350
8 17 0.9330
9 11 0.8683
10 0


Hollywood Park - Race 9
# Win Place Show
5 $12.00 $5.60 $3.60
bet $63 ret $84

nothing beats the odds like winning!!