Belmont 7-15-11 with Comments.

[KidCapper]

At Belmont today for the picks. As always we'll play $20WP on top pick and roll the pick3's when available. (3X3X3=$27 for $1). The picks are made early with fast n firm conditions(will update after scratches). Here we go..

Race -1 1 Mile 1/4 on the inner turf for OC35kn1X. I've landed on the :7: in here for Tagg with Ramon up. Troubled trip as the beaten fav. last out (Tagg 28% next out winner) when caught behind a group at the turn. Worked 4 times since last for this. :7: :3: :6:

Race -2 1 Mile on the main for 10000b claimers. My numbers point to the :6: . Back in with friends today after the failed Alw try on the turf( Rice 16% Turf to dirt move). Returns to the dist of Maiden breaker and get her picture taken today. :6: :7: :3:

Race -3 6F back on the Inner weeds for Alw50k runners. All signs point to the :7: at 12-1 ML sitting on a big effort. Has enough speed to stay close and can fire from off the pace. Nice Work Jul10 for this. :7: :2: :6:

Race -4 1 Mile on the Widener course for Alw16k. I love the :1: in here at 8-1 on the ML. Legit wire-to-wire threat ran a race fast enough to handle these when finishing 2nd last out.Makes 3rd start off the layoff for Brown(22%move). Catch if catch can!! :1: :2: :4:

Race -5 1 Mile back on the main track for OC25n2X field of 7. I've landed on the :3: .Castellano who was aboard for the victory takes the mount today. Stretches out for 15% trainer sprint to route today. Very nice workout Jul09 at 5F. Lots to like. :3: :7: :4:

Race -6 6F 2 yr old MSW on the inner turf. Field of 7 with some 1sters. We're going with the :2: based on experience alone for Pletcher. Beware the :6: 1st timer for Shuman. Bred for the green and working well. :2: :6: :7:

Race -7 7F on the Widener turf course Hcp16k. I like the :7: Prx shipper takes a big drop for Shuman (18%shipper) and tries the turf here for the 1st time. Ramon for the ride is interesting as well. Mild upset chance. :7: :2: :6:

Race -8 7F 60k Stakes on the main track. We're taking a shot with the :1: . Another Prx shipper making her start start off the shelf(15% trainer move). Has been working lights out at Fai for this. Should get a fair price at 5-1 on the ML. :1: :2: :5:

Race -9 1 Mile 16k Maiden claimer to send us home on the Widener turf course. We're going home with the :4: . Looks like a fire sale for Rice in here. Average races against better for this MD bred. Now or never time for this one. :4: :11: :7:

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper!!!

[PhantomOnTour]

I really like #4 Much Fanfare at 12-1 ML.
Should get an ideal pace set up, loves Bel turf, can finish well when ready.

Gonna try to beat your #1 here KidCap, but I like your 2nd and 3rd choices in the race: #2 and #4.

[Goofyscott]

GO crush'em today Kid. Love your writeups!!

[KidCapper]

We lost a couple to the scratch board today here are the changes for those races.

Race -5 We lost the :4: in here as our third choice for the pick 3's. New Selection for this race :3: :7: :2:


Race -8 Out top selection :1: scratched out of the field. Here's a new selection. 7F 60k Stakes on the main track. The :2: dropping in from the Grade 3 Acorn for Pletcher. Cuts back from a route to a sprint, a 28% move for Pletcher should win this at a low price. :2: :5: :4:

Race -9 The :11: is scratched. Here's the write-up with the new choices.
1 Mile 16k Maiden claimer to send us home on the Widener turf course. We're going home with the :4: . Looks like a fire sale for Rice in here. Average races against better for this MD bred. Now or never time for this one. :4: :7: :10:

[Canarsie]

Mind if I join you kid? We're on a lot of the same horses.Best of luck to you and all those playing. I don't have the scratches yet will change a selction if they don't reach the gate.

Top 2 picks rolling P3 and exactas two on top with 3 underneath. Mythological $2 wagers on the exacta and $1 P3’s let’s see how I do.

Bel 1: Senada finished a game third to Hungry Island who came back and won a minor stake by 3 on July 2. Dominquez stays on and is 88% in the money with Tagg. :6: :7: / :4: :6: :7:

Bel 2: My Snookies Pal I’m going to use the Linda Rice Spa angle. The last couple of weeks at Belmont she puts her lower class horses in the bargain bin hoping they’ll be claimed. They can’t go upstate and she can’t be in two places at once. :6: :7: / :5: :6: :7:

Bel 3: Madrilina was bumped at the start, raced gamely in her first start of the year and held for second. :4: :6: / :4: :6: :7:

Bel 4: Decennial think the race sets up well for her and wasn’t taxed that hard on July 1. Comes back in two weeks for Martin who is winning at a 32% clip. :2: :5: / :1: :2: :5:

Bel 5. Star of New York the Rice fire sale continues. :3: :7: / :1: :3: :7:

Bel 6: Half Wed I like horses who train on the Oklahoma and this one ships down with a turf work also. :5: :6: / :2: :5: :6:

Bel 7: Going to take a stab with Heritage Hall at 20/1 ML. Shuman has only raced at Belmont 6 times this meet and has two in today. Dominque rides my guess is could have selected others. The horse has raced against much better his last 2. :4: :6: / :2: :4: :6:

Bel 8: Savvy Supreme faced much tougher in the Acorn and folded. Won in a spot like this at 3/10 odds. :4: :5: / :2: :4: :5:


Bel 9: Stella Di Sicilia has had trouble her last 3. Finished second in her only start at this distance. :4: :5: / :4: :5: :7:

[KidCapper]

Nice to have ya along Canarsie!! Good Luck!!!

[Canarsie]

Had to make some changes it wouldn't let me edit my post but well before post time.

Top 2 picks rolling P3 and exactas two on top with 3 underneath. Mythological $2 wagers on the exacta and $1 P3’s let’s see how I do. The money doesn't matter just the ROI if there is any.

Exacta investment $72 P3 investment $56 Total investment $128




Bel 1: Senada finished a game third to Hungry Island who came back and won a minor stake by 3 on July 2. Dominquez stays on and is 88% in the money with Tagg. :6: :7: / :4: :6: :7:

Bel 2: My Snookies Pal I’m going to use the Linda Rice Spa angle. The last couple of weeks at Belmont she puts her lower class horses in the bargain bin hoping they’ll be claimed. They can’t go upstate and she can’t be in two places at once. :6: :7: / :4: :6: :7:

Bel 3: Madrilina was bumped at the start, raced gamely in her first start of the year and held for second. :4: :6: / :4: :6: :7:

Bel 4: Decennial think the race sets up well for her and wasn’t taxed that hard on July 1. Comes back in two weeks for Martin who is winning at a 32% clip. :2: :5: / :1: :2: :5:

Bel 5. Star of New York the Rice fire sale continues. :3: :7: / :1: :3: :7:

Bel 6: Half Wed I like horses who train on the Oklahoma and this one ships down with a turf work also. :5: :6: / :2: :5: :6:

Bel 7: Going to take a stab with Heritage Hall at 20/1 ML. Shuman has only raced at Belmont 6 times this meet and has two in today. Dominque rides my guess is could have selected others. The horse has raced against much better his last 2. :4: :6: / :2: :4: :6:

Bel 8: Savvy Supreme faced much tougher in the Acorn and folded. Won in a spot like this at 3/10 odds. :2: :5: / :2: :4: :5:


Bel 9: Stella Di Sicilia has had trouble her last 3. Finished second in her only start at this distance. :4: :5: / :4: :5: :7:

[oddsmaven]

Kid,

Good writeup...have a couple of questions:

In the 4th, Australis Princess does look like formful speed at a price, but i thought Shezaheartbreaker is going to put a lot of pressure on her...do you think yours is just faster and will clear or gets an edge to do so by post position?

Your thoughts?

In the 7th, I was looking at the same horse (heritage hall)...the hardest thing for me is dealing with a surface switch though...any insights on when you are willing to take a horse changing surfaces...in this case, there's a class edge, so maybe that's when you don't mind it?

[KidCapper]

Kid,

Good writeup...have a couple of questions:

In the 4th, Australis Princess does look like formful speed at a price, but i thought Shezaheartbreaker is going to put a lot of pressure on her...do you think yours is just faster and will clear or gets an edge to do so by post position?

Your thoughts?

In the 7th, I was looking at the same horse (heritage hall)...the hardest thing for me is dealing with a surface switch though...any insights on when you are willing to take a horse changing surfaces...in this case, there's a class edge, so maybe that's when you don't mind it?

4th- There is a chance for a speed duel but I don't think the outside horse is as fast as the :1: . Meaning I will get the shortest way around the track. I also think that maybe this horse is rateable which would give Maragh a couple options.

7th- I like the class edge on the :7: and I think he is bred well for the green. Been working well on the Tapeta at FairHill. Think he may even improve on the grass and Ramon picking up the mount signals confidence I think.

Hope that gives you some insight on my thought process.

Good Luck!!

[oddsmaven]

4th- There is a chance for a speed duel but I don't think the outside horse is as fast as the :1: . Meaning I will get the shortest way around the track. I also think that maybe this horse is rateable which would give Maragh a couple options.

7th- I like the class edge on the :7: and I think he is bred well for the green. Been working well on the Tapeta at FairHill. Think he may even improve on the grass and Ramon picking up the mount signals confidence I think.

Hope that gives you some insight on my thought process.

Good Luck!!thanks for the quick reply, as i appreciate what you think...best of luck to you too.

[KidCapper]

Our top pick ran 2nd so we pretty much broke even on the WP but blew out of the opening pick 3. Straight bet Totals(will update pick3's later).

Bet $40

Ret $39

Net-$01


Total of 7 pick3's at $27 each. Total Bet $189

Next!!

[KidCapper]

Bombs away in race 2 as we were no where near that winner. Thru 2 races.

Bet $80

Ret $39

Net-$41

[oddsmaven]

great call in the 3rd! - $21.20

[KidCapper]

Boom!! There's the one we needed to get started!! $21.20 $8.70 winner straight up and the start of a pick 3. Results thru 3 races

Bet $120

Ret $338

NET +$218

Rollin!!!

Next!!

[Canarsie]

Nice call Kid.


1st 7 MYRTLE'S GRAY $21.20 $8.70 $4.00

[KidCapper]

great call in the 3rd! - $21.20

Thank you.. Needed it cause I'm swinging and missing on the Ellis thread so far :bang: :)

[KidCapper]

hmm Our top pick was no where to be found. Thru 4

Bet $160

Ret $338


NET +$178

[Canarsie]

Not redboarding because I didn't play it or lay it out that way. My three picks (I only put two on top)in races 2-4 paid $648.50 for a buck in the P3.

But the truth is I didn't play it that way sometimes I feel like a :bang:

[KidCapper]

He's swings....and whiffs...... ran 3rd. Totals thru 5

Bet $200

Ret $338

Net +$138

Pick3's Bet $189 Ret $00

Next!!!

[KidCapper]

Back on track with a low priced winner. $5.20 $3.20 and starting off a new pick 3. Results thru 6

Bet $240

Ret $422

NET +$182

Pick3 are still empty...Net -$189

Next

[KidCapper]

Race 7..our top selection failed to fire but we hit the 2nd leg of this pick3 and the start of another with the :6: A $25.00 horse. We'll take it..Finally off the 3rd leg of a pick 3 with nice payouts maybe.

Bet $280

Ret $422

Net +$142

Next!!

[Canarsie]

Drawing blanks on the P3's zero for everything.

2 exactas so far

R4: $2 EX (5/2) paid $23.40
R7: $2 EX (6/2) paid $110.00