Frandsen's 1st article on pace handicapping

[jasperson]

The following statement was from their article about what the Sartin group was looking for. "They are looking for variables that would place the winner of the race in the top 4 horses for that particular variable 67% of the time." Maybe I am reading that wrong but if the winner of the race is not one of my top 4 picks 67% of the time I would quit handicapping.:D

[DJofSD]

That statement is misleading, to say the least.

As I recall from the middle and late days or PIRCO, the programs did not evolve like that. The programs were written to explore and exploit different ideas and insights into how the races ran, in part, based upon the match up. Sometimes the winner was in the top 4 of a particular factor while it was not when looking at other factors. With multiple factors coming from every program that was generated, you could not make a blanket statement like the aforementioned.

The various discussions, articles, presentations, etc., when races were handicapped using different programs, the winners were found in the top 4 of some factor 67% of the time. Make a model of that track using that factor and you have a good starting point to handicap todays card.

[Light]

I believe the top 4 betting choices win around 75% of the time without handicapping so getting 67% winners from handicapping software is weak.

It seems that the FPS method would get 75% winners in the top 4 and with better mutuels than the public but I have no proof. Do you know what method the Sartin group was using for the 67% return?

[benzer]

Out of all the Sartin material I've read I don't remember reading anything about 67% winners in the top four. Maybe I missed that part.

The way I understand it the goal was to have the winner in your top 4 or 5 90% + of the time and you should be cashing in on the winner 65 - 67% + of the time betting 2 horses to win over a 20 race cycle.

[jasperson]

The funny part about that statement is that the Sartin group were west coast based and when I was out there in1972,1985 and 1986 the top 4 picks would cover over half the field in most cases at sa,and hol.

[benzer]

West coast based yes, but the methodology was and is being used successfully nationwide, and overall there were a lot more full fields back then than there is today.

[Buzz]

Where can I find this article? I would like to read it.

Buzz

[davew]

it sounds like they are trying to find many variables to put into a multivariate formula to calculate probablities for the race


simple stuff like - average earnings per race - which probably would rank them so the top 4 horses won 67%

or top beyer speed in last 2 races - which probably would rank them so the top 4 horses won 67%


stuff by themselves would lose longterm, but with enough combined could come up with a strong probability line


ps - I did not read article

[pondman]

At GG, 68% of the winner of 3/4 mile races pass the 1/2 point in the top 4 positions (at least this was the case when I last checked.) You have to do a lot of additional work to make money with that.

[dansan]

still have to make the right bet ! if it were that easy everyone would be playing

[benzer]

it sounds like they are trying to find many variables to put into a multivariate formula to calculate probablities for the race


simple stuff like - average earnings per race - which probably would rank them so the top 4 horses won 67%

or top beyer speed in last 2 races - which probably would rank them so the top 4 horses won 67%


stuff by themselves would lose longterm, but with enough combined could come up with a strong probability line


ps - I did not read article
Of course the Sartin Methodology is all about the simple stuff. LOL

I thought I already dispelled the 67% top 4. Read the above posts for explanation.

The article in question amounts to little more than one software provider trying to one up any other provider in order to make sales.

[Tom]

As I understand the history....
When the Doc took over the class of truck drivers, the goal was to find factors that had the winner in the top 4 67% of the time. They studied factor after factor - win%, weight off, finish position, speed, you name it. They kept factors that meet the criteria and threw out those that did not.
Pace factors were among those that made the cut. This was all just the study phase before the "methodology" was born. Had nothing to do with the betting part of at this stage.

[jasperson]

Out of all the Sartin material I've read I don't remember reading anything about 67% winners in the top four. Maybe I missed that part.

The way I understand it the goal was to have the winner in your top 4 or 5 90% + of the time and you should be cashing in on the winner 65 - 67% + of the time betting 2 horses to win over a 20 race cycle.
Brohamer says about the same thing in his book on page 110.