NY Hunting

[Suff]

Race 1

The 0 for 12 will help the Price... But I'm only mildly concerned about that because that 12 only include 4 at the Distance. And in the 12 they are talking about is the GRD3 Gotham, 78K whirl away and most of the others are 3 times what this one is.

Also... I don't care for the FAV's. Papers tough to ignore... But I watch all those efforts. And I'm not having a hard time betting against them

I like the 8.. Bianco's appeal. 10-1 might be a little greedy...But I have a shot at getting it..



r2

Funny race for me...
I land on the 6. But Just like phony Fav's.. There are Phony Long shots... The 6 will bet down with first blinks and the weight break. I'm going away from my head and going with my GUT. The wild card for me is the 4. Teet Jr. A watch horse for me. I know the Gelding fairly well. Enough Patterns point North and I think he'll be ignored to the same range as Bianco's Appeal. Looking for 10-1 ish. #1 Global Link will be in a few exacta plays for me...and I'll Box the 4-1 for a Fat Perfecta if it pops.


r3

Trading Hours.

r4.

I start this race on the premise I can beat the 4/5 unbeatable FAV.

I come up with strange horses in an orthodox fashion. I land on #9 Emerald Green with lots of pimples and blemish's. I can somehow see this one doing something at a HUGE number. And I see speed in her arsenal believe it or not.

Here's how I land on this one.

Only seen one FAST DIRT ROUTE in her career. And it was her TOP dirt number. And a damn near TRIPLE her sloppy tack number the previous dirt try. I'm just tossing what the Numbers actually are for now... I'm just looking at Patterns. And the Pattern here is 3 straight Rising Beyers on DIRT.. With a High Beyer at Today’s Surface and Distance. That’s good.


She comes into to this race with the 3rd highest last out number. How many times you see a HIGH BEYER in the field from last race as a playable angle? Many. People love that angle. I like it too... and I'm not afraid to go 2 or 3 or even 4 deep to come up with a "trending up"---"competitive Number" animal. So 3rd highest number exiting last is ALSO GOOD.

Now I have Prado up at 15% for a Sneaky Good trainer. So either you have to believe Prado's doing him a Favor or he's on the animal for real. So I get Edgar. That’s another Good.

And Pregman has her out for 2 dirt works in a week, following a TURF MILE that might have tuned her up for a nice effort here..

Pregmans 30% on 2nd off layoff, 30% 30-45 days off. And He's 15% Turf to Dirt. Sweet FAT numbers across his Banner.
That’s another good.

And that’s a lot of Good for an animal that will be unspeakable money

[Suff]

Reading my own post ..couple or erros. Its race 5 not 4. I'm passing 4. I know what I am talking about but for those looking at Lifetime PP's Like I do...and that are looking at the Patterns I mentioned. I should have said.. only one FAST mile and an 1/8th route. She's seen 3 FAST track routes. 2 miles and and 1 mile and 1/8th I metion.

She did see a SLOPPY mile and 1/8 at Saratoga in a Toughre mix than this where they bet her to 8-1. She could be 80-1 here.

Any Who. If You strip out the FAST routes you'll see the Pattern.

The numbers are not the issue.. although I can live with the Numbers. Because the way I see this shaking out... if I get 2 that run below thier number... Mine will run 4 better than they think and that puts me on the ticket in a 9 horse field.

[Suff]

Also.. If You really want to work up the Filly the way I did..

Use the Beyer Graph to get some numbers that trends and boosts.


2002 Beyer..#1 in the field.

Last race #3 in the field.

At the Distance (all surfaces) #2 in the field.

Last 3 .. #5 in the field.

Off Going #3 in the field. ( been in handful of OFF Turf and Soft Turf)

Turf Number (for strength of field Purposes) #2 in the field.

Lifetime number #2 in the field.


Thats alot of 1's 2's and 3's .....with a 5 I have to squint at,,to make it pretty.

[Trijack]

Suff

Good explanation on #9 Emerald Green in the 5th. I will also add another positive.Her turn time is +40 over any other horse.

But that favorite #7 looks tough. Her Bris Prime Power is 12.7 better than any other horse in here. Good luck on that pick.

Jack

[WINMANWIN]

Originally posted by Trijack
Suff

Good explanation on #9 Emerald Green in the 5th. I will also add another positive.Her turn time is +40 over any other horse.

But that favorite #7 looks tough. Her Bris Prime Power is 12.7 better than any other horse in here. Good luck on that pick.

Jack
THE #7 HAS RUN 3 TIMES, and they were all on the turf, This race is on the DIRT, and is a N.Y. statebred race, :rolleyes: So the Pletcher steed may be over bet here.The #6 JULES AT FOUR I find myself interested in hoping for a quick pace though, and that may not happen. #3 Pocahaba COMES BACK on 3 days rest with blinkers ON, and probably will try to WIRE them, Suff's steed Emerald, also needs to come from way out of it, but has run almost Evenly with the Race Fave the #7 on the Weeds, and may take to THE Aqueduct oval :confused:

[JustRalph]

I like the 3 Pocahaba to improve and I think was tuned up in the last one. The fractions were faster than two back, and lets hope she built some wind. I would have liked to have seen at least a week off though. she may quit at the half or so........But the trainer is 37% in 8 routes in my database at Aqu

I like Suff's 9 just on the jock taking the ride. she spotted them 23 on the break last time according to my PP. If that is so ....it was probably a galloping workout after that. She might be ready, so up goes Prado. Makes sense.

Best E2+Late hits the board in this Distance Category at Aqu about 60% of the time in the last 700+ starts. That makes it a race between 3-6-7-4........the unknown factor of course is what is really up with the 9. The trainer is 0 for 8 with longshots at Aqu in my Database (goes back about 2 years) but 16% on the board with Medium odds. Longshot odds are 10-1 or > and medium is 3-1 to 9-1 and Low odds are 2-1 or less. He is a 66% winner with 2-1 or less. The 9 has good pedigree ratings in Distance, Mud, surface.........Maidens....don't you love em.....I like the works on the 9 too..........very interesting race.......

[Suff]

The thing I get with the 3 Ralph...and this is Just me..

She reached the top of her Form Cycle that Last race of Sept. and now she is hopelessly out of form. She should of beat Scicilian Princess three back at $1.85. She missed. Now she runs two poor efforts with declining numbers. Gone Longer than a Mile 3 times... and none of the efforts make me think she can go Mile and 1/8th.

Of course if she runs back to Sept form.. Your right Ralph. The others are in trouble. With nothing on the AM strip to make me think they're ready with this one..and a Price that will be less than 4-1 in a bunch-0-bums field... I can't bet her. But You Know I love anyone that takes a Posistion on an Animal. I Hope I win.. But If I don't. I hope you do. I am pretty sure I'll be unable to watch it... But I may be able to sneak over around the 6th race. If so I'll come back in with a Late Double. Good luck Jack and Ralph. I'm off to see the wizard.

[cj]

I'll be keeping a close eye on #4 Maggie Mooster. Horses improve by leaps and bounds when they leave the Campo barn...if you don't believe me, check out Cajun Beat's PPs ;)

[Trijack]

No racing today at Aqu due to high winds. There goes all of our hard work. Just gives me another day to stay alive in Aqu showdown.

[JustRalph]

I have to participate in this more often. I get mucho experience out of this........ I usually don't play NY....and this helps.

Looks like the 3 is going to get that week off..........

[cj]

My bad, Campo didn't train Cajun Beat, it was Cam Gambolati....but Campo still sux...BAD!