Roi based on daily play

[teddy]

Recently I graphed my play based on how much I wagered per day and found that there was a strong relationship to how much I play during the day as to my overall roi. This backs up the age old sages that say to pick your spots. I dont mind sharing it because im a rebate player and pushing more thru the windows is th e goal. Actually the inverse is in effect here which many could argue has nothing to do with dollars wagered as it does with volume of wagers. Slowing down the wagering and picking your spots has a huge effect on my wagers. Rebate play has more to do with icing on the cake than something to shoot for.

$0 to $1000 roi 1.1
$1000 to $2000 roi 1.08
$2000 to $3000 roi was.85

$3000 and up .9

Limiting bets below 2k or slowing down the wagers has a huge effect on playing 5 tracks at once and ending up with 4k bet. Also putting a stop loss in at $200 a day keeps away the effects of chasing. (very hard to walk away though when you are down)

My conclusion is it would be very difficult to play 1 mill a year and survive. Jcapper once wrote he bet his money like it was his last 2.00. I can see how that would apply here. Making less than 10 bets a day for $200 each.

[lamboguy]

Recently I graphed my play based on how much I wagered per day and found that there was a strong relationship to how much I play during the day as to my overall roi. This backs up the age old sages that say to pick your spots. I dont mind sharing it because im a rebate player and pushing more thru the windows is th e goal. Actually the inverse is in effect here which many could argue has nothing to do with dollars wagered as it does with volume of wagers. Slowing down the wagering and picking your spots has a huge effect on my wagers. Rebate play has more to do with icing on the cake than something to shoot for.

$0 to $1000 roi 1.1
$1000 to $2000 roi 1.08
$2000 to $3000 roi was.85

$3000 and up .9

Limiting bets below 2k or slowing down the wagers has a huge effect on playing 5 tracks at once and ending up with 4k bet. Also putting a stop loss in at $200 a day keeps away the effects of chasing. (very hard to walk away though when you are down)

My conclusion is it would be very difficult to play 1 mill a year and survive. Jcapper once wrote he bet his money like it was his last 2.00. I can see how that would apply here. Making less than 10 bets a day for $200 each.if you play less than a million a year you are basically a recreational player. there are computer outfits that claim they bet $40 million a year. i find that very tough to do in today's world. 10 years ago i bet more all by myself and won.i was betting all of the larger tracks, today i only play smaller ones and the handles have decreased by as much as half of what it was 10 years ago. so i find it hard to bet more than $40 to win on smaller tracks.

[Charli125]

$0 to $1000 roi 1.1
$1000 to $2000 roi 1.08
$2000 to $3000 roi was.85

$3000 and up .9

Limiting bets below 2k or slowing down the wagers has a huge effect on playing 5 tracks at once and ending up with 4k bet. Also putting a stop loss in at $200 a day keeps away the effects of chasing. (very hard to walk away though when you are down)


That's interesting because I found the exact same type of results. I found it at slightly lower thresholds than you, but once I got over a certain amount my ROI went down very quickly.

I really think it has to do with playing too many tracks and not putting enough focus on each race. I find that when I stick with 2-3 tracks running at a time, and keep my betting under about $1,500 a day, I have my best ROI. When I get up to 4+ tracks at the same time, and am betting over 2K I get a steep drop.

Another interesting result I found last time I went through my results was that I don't play very well when I'm only playing 1 track. It's like I get too bogged down in the card since I have all the time in the world.

[classhandicapper]

Years ago when I was still a break even player with alternating winning and losing years, a gambling buddy of mine suggested I review all my bets by odds category.

I found that I had profits every year on horses at odds of 3-1 and higher and losses in most years on horses at 2-1 or less (even though I thought they were overlays at the time I made the play).

I'm not suggesting that will be true of everyone, but it eventually taught me that all my profits were being accumulated on a very small percentage of all my plays and that I was just spinning my wheels on a lot of the rest of them. That much I think is true for everyone. Gamblers love action, but IMO most bets are a total waste of time or actually costing them money.

Rebates certainly change the calculations, but I think most people still play WAY TOO MANY races.

[thaskalos]

Years ago when I was still a break even player with alternating winning and losing years, a gambling buddy of mine suggested I review all my bets by odds category.

I found that I had profits every year on horses at odds of 3-1 and higher and losses in most years on horses at 2-1 or less (even though I thought they were overlays at the time I made the play).

I'm not suggesting that will be true of everyone, but it eventually taught me that all my profits were being accumulated on a very small percentage of all my plays and that I was just spinning my wheels on a lot of the rest of them. That much I think is true for everyone. Gamblers love action, but IMO most bets are a total waste of time or actually costing them money.

Rebates certainly change the calculations, but I think most people still play WAY TOO MANY races.
The 80/20 principle at work...80% of the results coming from 20% of the plays.

I have seen it in MY play too.

[teddy]

The 80/20 principle at work...80% of the results coming from 20% of the plays.

I have seen it in MY play too.

I see the highest return in show,place and for some strange reason the daily double break even on win exacta ...


Lambo. I only know one guy that bet 40 mil and won and he did it on tri and super combos and 17% rebate. I think the term SKILL is at hand in all these bets. He was extremely skilled at boxing or part wheeling them. I am very skilled at predicting show wagers. After many years of doing that you get a real feel for race setups and trainer intentions. I will disagree on betting 2k a day being recreational. It comes out to $200 profit a day or forgive me for extrapolating but $70k a year. Even if its $50k a year thats pretax and very nice income for most of us. Probably those that bet professionally are betting 10mil easy. Working on a very thin margin. Most adw have about 1 of those players each. The ones i know anyway.

[teddy]

Oh and another huge thing is to make your FIRST bet a winning one. Does something to your mind set that you are relaxed more in your wagers. Playing from behind is bad news for me.


I agree also 2 to 3 tracks a day should be a max... 10 wagers for me is ideal. Also give yourself at least 10 min before post to handicap. I said it before but if the track handicapper agrees with your selection then FIRE away. They study one track every day.

[thaskalos]

Oh and another huge thing is to make your FIRST bet a winning one. Does something to your mind set that you are relaxed more in your wagers. Playing from behind is bad news for me.



IMO...it is while "playing from behind" when the "expert" player distinguishes himself from the crowd.

That's the TRUE test of a player's discipline and self-control.

Playing well when you are "ahead" is much easier...

[davew]

can you figure ROI by day of the week?


I have basically stopped betting Mondays and Tuesdays

[lamboguy]

just to give you an example of why you can't bet big these day's, in the sixth at deleware i bet a $200 exacta box at the end and watched a $49 exacta pay $33.

i am going to take it easy for now and wait for the spa, i got the right tools there for the big money. i am hoping that my races come up on saturdays. i got about 10 rocket ships for that place

[mannyberrios]

just to give you an example of why you can't bet big these day's, in the sixth at deleware i bet a $200 exacta box at the end and watched a $49 exacta pay $33.

i am going to take it easy for now and wait for the spa, i got the right tools there for the big money. i am hoping that my races come up on saturdays. i got about 10 rocket ships for that place
Good luck Lambo! And by the way, what are rocket ships?

[teddy]

can you figure ROI by day of the week?


I have basically stopped betting Mondays and Tuesdays
yes easily sat and sun are my worst days.. too much opportunity... My behind play sucks so im just a novice still after 30 years...

[Edward DeVere]

Oh and another huge thing is to make your FIRST bet a winning one.

Damn! I've read ALL the books - Ainslie, Beyer, Cramer, Davidowitz - and none of them ever told me THAT.

Bastards!!! Kept the really solid information for themselves.

[therussmeister]

IMO...it is while "playing from behind" when the "expert" player distinguishes himself from the crowd.

That's the TRUE test of a player's discipline and self-control.

Playing well when you are "ahead" is much easier...

I have a little mental trick so I never feel I'm playing from behind. It involves having a big enough bankroll so I don't feel there is a danger of going broke, and not thinking of my bankroll as my money.

I have a bigger problem playing well when ahead. When I get ahead a certain amount for the day I get sloppy and/or bored. It is a terrible thing to be bored because you're winning too much.

[teddy]

Damn! I've read ALL the books - Ainslie, Beyer, Cramer, Davidowitz - and none of them ever told me THAT.

Bastards!!! Kept the really solid information for themselves.



See good info is free on PACE! Means making your first bet on something you are really solid on.

[Exotic1]

just to give you an example of why you can't bet big these day's, in the sixth at deleware i bet a $200 exacta box at the end and watched a $49 exacta pay $33.

i am going to take it easy for now and wait for the spa, i got the right tools there for the big money. i am hoping that my races come up on saturdays. i got about 10 rocket ships for that place

Without your $400 bet, the $2 exacta would have returned $36.40 or something very close to that - I was using a 19% takeout rate on a pool of $49,036.