System plays and setting a minimum bar

[Capper Al]

Many paper and pencil systems set a minimum bar. A minimum bar is an automatic elimination. Some that I know of are as follows:

Average of best two speed figures out of the last three races. Eliminate bottom half.
Two seconds below top speed last race. Eliminate any horse that didn't race up to par last race.
Adding the jockey's and trainer's win percentage together and eliminate the bottom half.
Days since last raced. Pick a number 30, 45, 60, or 90 days whatever you like and eliminate.
These are four that come to my mind. Anymore? Any experiences using them? Generally, i find these a good guide if used with common sense.

[bob60566]

Many paper and pencil systems set a minimum bar. A minimum bar is an automatic elimination. Some that I know of are as follows:

Average of best two speed figures out of the last three races. Eliminate bottom half.
Two seconds below top speed last race. Eliminate any horse that didn't race up to par last race.
Adding the jockey's and trainer's win percentage together and eliminate the bottom half.
Days since last raced. Pick a number 30, 45, 60, or 90 days whatever you like and eliminate.
These are four that come to my mind. Anymore? Any experiences using them? Generally, i find these a good guide if used with common sense.
Al
Everybody and there brother has these and me incuded great starting point.
Mac:) :) :)

[thaskalos]

Don't bet any winning claimer to repeat...if it's coming off a 30+ day layoff.

The best last-race Beyer figure is NOT a good indicator of a horse's form and ability. If the horse is a FRONT runner, pick the best Beyer of his last 3. If the horse is NOT a front runner, select the best Beyer of his last 2.

Avoid horses who dropped in class last out...but ran a WORSE Beyer figure than the two races prior to that.

In fields of lightly raced maidens, look at ONLY their first lifetime start...and bet the horse with the best Beyer figure therein.

Beware of horses who have been pulled-up in their most recent race...if they return to action in 18 days or less.

[therussmeister]

One and a half of your list of five are my favorite betting angles.

I like betting horses that pull up and then return quickly. I also like betting class droppers that showed no improvement, but I don't look at Beyer's, just beaten lengths. Also, I play tris and supers and almost exclusively use them underneath, not to win.

[Capper Al]

Here another one.

Take the second highest EPS and eliminate any horse that doesn't have an EPS of at least 80% of the second horse.

[jasperson]

Al, I have one rule only and that is I don't have any hard and fast rules. That being said I like to eliminate any horse that hasn't run within 3 points of the speed par for the race. Sometimes I eliminate the whole field which is good because it becomes a no bet race.

[JustRalph]

Average of best two speed figures out of the last three races. Eliminate bottom half.
and end up with the 1st or 2nd choice every race?

Two seconds below top speed last race. Eliminate any horse that didn't race up to par last race.
I would have to say this ignores race shape and "todays field" completely. Each race is individual in nature....this "angle" also completely ignores form cycle

Adding the jockey's and trainer's win percentage together and eliminate the bottom half.
Back to the 1st or 2nd choice again, often anyway

Days since last raced. Pick a number 30, 45, 60, or 90 days whatever you like and eliminate.
Ignores the connections completely and that's the main thing to consider on long layoffs. It also means ignoring a few other factors that can pay off if you have the data

Al, I have one rule only and that is I don't have any hard and fast rules. That being said I like to eliminate any horse that hasn't run within 3 points of the speed par for the race. Sometimes I eliminate the whole field which is good because it becomes a no bet race.

completely ignores race shape and the horses chances against the field "today" back to every race being different.

btw, who has time to calculate all this stuff ?

[wonatthewire1]

I usually will sit out a race that has a favorite at even or less > they are tough to beat and I'll probably get better opportunities later in the day.

[Capper Al]

Ralph,

I am not claiming that I use these. They are just ones I have come across over the years. There is some merit to some of these if applied with common sense.




Average of best two speed figures out of the last three races. Eliminate bottom half.
and end up with the 1st or 2nd choice every race?

Two seconds below top speed last race. Eliminate any horse that didn't race up to par last race.
I would have to say this ignores race shape and "todays field" completely. Each race is individual in nature....this "angle" also completely ignores form cycle

Adding the jockey's and trainer's win percentage together and eliminate the bottom half.
Back to the 1st or 2nd choice again, often anyway

Days since last raced. Pick a number 30, 45, 60, or 90 days whatever you like and eliminate.
Ignores the connections completely and that's the main thing to consider on long layoffs. It also means ignoring a few other factors that can pay off if you have the data



completely ignores race shape and the horses chances against the field "today" back to every race being different.

btw, who has time to calculate all this stuff ?

[Capper Al]

I usually will sit out a race that has a favorite at even or less > they are tough to beat and I'll probably get better opportunities later in the day.

I use this one.

[Producer]

One of my favorite angles is trainer switches in which a horse is leaving a bad trainer. Doesn't even have to be going to a high percentage trainer necessarily. This is especially dangerous in cheap claiming races.

Another of mine is a horse in good form that has never ran on the grass, entered in a turf sprint. They are often overlooked because of the lack of turf experience but I find that in sprints, grass breeding/experience doesn't mean nearly as much as in routes.

Betting against high-priced yearlings/2yo's entered first out in Mdn-clm races is another.

Betting against horses that are dropping from allowance to claiming without a workout or only a lackluster workout since last race.

[Capper Al]

Thaskalos,

You're one of the few that get this topic -- setting a minimum bar. These are general rules for elimination and narrowing down the field to contenders. You make some excellent points.


Don't bet any winning claimer to repeat...if it's coming off a 30+ day layoff.

The best last-race Beyer figure is NOT a good indicator of a horse's form and ability. If the horse is a FRONT runner, pick the best Beyer of his last 3. If the horse is NOT a front runner, select the best Beyer of his last 2.

Avoid horses who dropped in class last out...but ran a WORSE Beyer figure than the two races prior to that.

In fields of lightly raced maidens, look at ONLY their first lifetime start...and bet the horse with the best Beyer figure therein.

Beware of horses who have been pulled-up in their most recent race...if they return to action in 18 days or less.

[salty]

I feel like most of the ideas in The Handicapper's Condition Book by James Quinn set very clear bars depending on the class of the race.

example:
in a maiden claimg race eliminate all horses that have already ran a maiden claimer of any level. (however if the horse last raced in a very high claiming race such as a 40 or 50 and today is in a 12500, or if the horse ran a good first race in a maiden claimer I still leave them in.)

[Capper Al]

I feel like most of the ideas in The Handicapper's Condition Book by James Quinn set very clear bars depending on the class of the race.

example:
in a maiden claimg race eliminate all horses that have already ran a maiden claimer of any level. (however if the horse last raced in a very high claiming race such as a 40 or 50 and today is in a 12500, or if the horse ran a good first race in a maiden claimer I still leave them in.)

I recommend Quinn, but he writes at the college level. Great stuff just need to read and re-read. Not for beginners.

[jasperson]

Average of best two speed figures out of the last three races. Eliminate bottom half.
and end up with the 1st or 2nd choice every race?

Two seconds below top speed last race. Eliminate any horse that didn't race up to par last race.
I would have to say this ignores race shape and "todays field" completely. Each race is individual in nature....this "angle" also completely ignores form cycle

Adding the jockey's and trainer's win percentage together and eliminate the bottom half.
Back to the 1st or 2nd choice again, often anyway

Days since last raced. Pick a number 30, 45, 60, or 90 days whatever you like and eliminate.
Ignores the connections completely and that's the main thing to consider on long layoffs. It also means ignoring a few other factors that can pay off if you have the data



completely ignores race shape and the horses chances against the field "today" back to every race being different.

btw, who has time to calculate all this stuff ?

I love this post. I now understand why JustRalph is a disgruntled horseplayer.:D

[Capper Al]

I love this post. I now understand why JustRalph is a disgruntled horseplayer.:D

That could be why he posts mostly political stuff.

[JustRalph]

That could be why he posts mostly political stuff.


yep, I never post anything horse racing related.......never any selections or anything at all......... they oughta throw my ass out of here

[Capper Al]

yep, I never post anything horse racing related.......never any selections or anything at all......... they oughta throw my ass out of here

I know you're a good capper.

[pondman]

Don't play Baffert's horses, unless they:

Have a published work in the last 5-7 days.

Have broken the 1 furlong in 12 sec barrier in a work in the last 60 days.

[Robert Goren]

I remember my dad sent off for book on picking winners in the late 60s. The horse its system picked always seemed logical and was always at short odds and usually lost. I think you might be creating the modern day equivalent of that here.

[Capper Al]

Eliminate any horse whose morning line is 15/1 or greater. (I don't do this one.)