Hollywood Gold cup

[toussaud]

why do people keep wagering Twirling candy down in 10F races? I don't get it.

[Spalding No!]

why do people keep wagering Twirling candy down in 10F races? I don't get it.

He's one of those horses that cleans up in all the lesser stakes leading up to the marquee event, then is a no-show on the big day.

Reminds me of Private Terms. Except he's slower.

[Stillriledup]

Gimme the mare and the weight break.

Does anyone know why this grade 1 race isnt 126 lbs for all runners and a 4 lb weight break for the mare?
Talamo better starve himself, i'm expecting to come close to that 110.

[cj]

Gimme the mare and the weight break.

Does anyone know why this grade 1 race isnt 126 lbs for all runners and a 4 lb weight break for the mare?
Talamo better starve himself, i'm expecting to come close to that 110.

Come on, you can't post this much and not realize why the weights fall as they do. I'm not saying I agree with the weights, but you have to know the answer.

[FenceBored]

Gimme the mare and the weight break.

Does anyone know why this grade 1 race isnt 126 lbs for all runners and a 4 lb weight break for the mare?
Talamo better starve himself, i'm expecting to come close to that 110.

Cause even the people toussaud was talking about in the original post wouldn't bet Twirling Candy carrying 126 for 10f.

[toussaud]

this is basically the hollywood "okay guys twirling candy really needs a 2 turn grade 1 win" cup

[JeremyJet]

why do people keep wagering Twirling candy down in 10F races? I don't get it.

I think he's a 5/1 shot in here ... along with four others. Anything over 5/1, on any of the Fab5, and I think your getting value.


TWIRLING CANDY 5
MISS MATCH 15
SETSUKO 5
GAME ON DUDE 5
AWESOME GEM 5
SOUL CANDY 15
FIRST DUDE 5
DARK COVE 15

[precocity]

FIRST DUDE GATE TO WIRE!!!!!! :cool:

[andymays]

DRF race of the day free PP's for this race. Scroll down and they're near the bottom on the right side.

http://www.drf.com/

[GaryG]

Does anyone know why this grade 1 race isnt 126 lbs for all runners and a 4 lb weight break for the mare?The race is a handicap. I like Game On Dude on the front end.

[toussaud]

I really like first dude here. First dude is a different horse under baffert. You have to basically toss his entire 3YO form

[cj]

I really like first dude here. First dude is a different horse under baffert. You have to basically toss his entire 3YO form

I agree, but in the opposite direction. I don't think he is as good now as he was then. I guess we shall see.

[PhantomOnTour]

I also think First Dude is gonna be tough, but my key horse is Setsuko, provided i get something close to his 8-1 ML odds.
He is a synth horse and likes HOL (got his only win there).
He should get his pace behind First Dude and Twirling Candy, who may hook up. Reliable late runner probably won't run 'em all down, but he's my underneath key and should get a piece. Just need my price.

[Reezy]

I also like first dude but don't think he will go gate to wire.. he's been winning from off the pace.. why change it?

[JeremyJet]

I agree, but in the opposite direction. I don't think he is as good now as he was then. I guess we shall see.

Well, at least Baffert is finding the winners circle with FIRST DUDE this year.

[cj]

Well, at least Baffert is finding the winners circle with FIRST DUDE this year.

I agree, but I think it is an illusion. I doubt the owner was looking for an allowance and a G3 win with this horse after his 3yo season. He may improve, but I think he has lost his zip.

[toussaud]

are you are going to make the argument that after beating a 2 time grade 1 winner giant oak, multiple grade 1 winner awesome gem, not to mention caracatado, regal ransom, Demarcation who actually won the Clark last year but was DQ'ed, wise dan who came back and won the grade 2 firecracker last week.



that the horse is actually worse then he was last year...

i admit, his class level last year was sneaky good. Morning line turned out to be a runner, afleet express had talent, but you can't honestly say he's WORST than last year

[JimG]

I'm playing Awesome Gem to upset.

[toussaud]

defiantly worse then last year

i will take that thank you very much.


TC is so damn overrated


chantel rode the best rac ein the race. shame she had to lose

[Reezy]

Best race of the year.. awesome call too

[smartybadger]

Martin is such a good jockey.

[Reezy]

Baffert is the man.. this horse is a diff animal than last year

[toussaud]

great call vic.. remembrances of that great fountain of youth call back in the day.

[Some_One]

TC is a horse that needs lots of rest inbetween, isn't he now like 0 for 4 on =<5 weeks rest?

[precocity]

FIRST DUDE GATE TO WIRE!!!!!! :cool:
heyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy no red bording not gate to wire but way off the pace wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooohooooooooo oooooooooooooooooo.....big money to win and place :cool: :cool: :cool:

[cj]

great call vic.. remembrances of that great fountain of youth call back in the day.

Well, except the part about telling us how well the 1 horse was rating.

[cj]

are you are going to make the argument that after beating a 2 time grade 1 winner giant oak, multiple grade 1 winner awesome gem, not to mention caracatado, regal ransom, Demarcation who actually won the Clark last year but was DQ'ed, wise dan who came back and won the grade 2 firecracker last week.



that the horse is actually worse then he was last year...

i admit, his class level last year was sneaky good. Morning line turned out to be a runner, afleet express had talent, but you can't honestly say he's WORST than last year

I said he has lost a little zip. I still think it, I just think those horses in SoCal are really bad. It also probably helped him on synthetics. I could be wrong, time will tell.

[Spalding No!]

I still think it, I just think those horses in SoCal are really bad.

Since winning the Santa Anita Handicap, Game On Dude has decisively lost races at Lone Star and Charles Town, now suddenly finds winning form again (nearly) today at Hollywood Park. So I'd tend to agree with you. Of course, maybe it's just Chantel that he needs.

[OTM Al]

Since winning the Santa Anita Handicap, Game On Dude has decisively lost races at Lone Star and Charles Town, now suddenly finds winning form again (nearly) today at Hollywood Park. So I'd tend to agree with you. Of course, maybe it's just Chantel that he needs.

Me too. I wanted to bet against Twirling Candy but couldn't find a single horse in the field I wanted to put money on. Just plain bad.

[toussaud]

Since winning the Santa Anita Handicap, Game On Dude has decisively lost races at Lone Star and Charles Town, now suddenly finds winning form again (nearly) today at Hollywood Park. So I'd tend to agree with you. Of course, maybe it's just Chantel that he needs.
it could very well be chantel joking aside. 1 for 2 and a nose from being undefeated in 2 grade 1's. they put Jose Val up on him at charles town and the horse didn't run a jump.


You can't say well he needs santa anita, he won the lone star derby last year, going away at that. He didn't run Bad in the Belmont either that was just a tad bit too far for him. He's one of the very few horses in the country that has won a race on the east coast, a race in the mid west and a race on the west coast. he's a good horse. But I think chantel rides him better than anyone else does.

[JeremyJet]

I said he has lost a little zip. I still think it, I just think those horses in SoCal are really bad. It also probably helped him on synthetics. I could be wrong, time will tell.

The Beyer should come back somewhat mediocre. I guess you could say it's par for the race since they installed synth. I'm thinkin' something in the 106 range. Nothing to write home about.

[Spalding No!]

it could very well be chantel joking aside. 1 for 2 and a nose from being undefeated in 2 grade 1's. they put Jose Val up on him at charles town and the horse didn't run a jump.


You can't say well he needs santa anita, he won the lone star derby last year, going away at that. He didn't run Bad in the Belmont either that was just a tad bit too far for him. He's one of the very few horses in the country that has won a race on the east coast, a race in the mid west and a race on the west coast. he's a good horse. But I think chantel rides him better than anyone else does.

I think he's a Grade 3 horse at best.

[v j stauffer]

great call vic.. remembrances of that great fountain of youth call back in the day.

Thanks. Funny how great races help with making the calls.

[v j stauffer]

Well, except the part about telling us how well the 1 horse was rating.

What was wrong with that? Didn't you think he settled MUCH better today?

[classhandicapper]

Since winning the Santa Anita Handicap, Game On Dude has decisively lost races at Lone Star and Charles Town, now suddenly finds winning form again (nearly) today at Hollywood Park. So I'd tend to agree with you. Of course, maybe it's just Chantel that he needs.

He may just be a tad better on synthetic.

IMO he ran a very good race from way outside in the Charles Town Classic anyway. That race was much better than a Grade 3 quality race (despite the slow Beyer). It was more like a very deep Grade 2 race. A few good horses got totally buried in there.

I thought his last was a little disappointing.

[classhandicapper]

Regarding First Dude, IMO, the rail was not the place to be on the day of the SA Handicap and he was inside. He came back with two wins since then. The Alysheba was another race that came up with a slow Beyer, but IMO it wasn't that bad of a field.

I like the idea of rating him (at least on synthetic). He's always been a fast horse with a decent amount of stamina. Now he's relaxing and using his speed late instead of early. He could continue to be force out there with this style.

I think it's time for the connections of Twirling Candy to realize he's a good MILER that can stretch a bit, but 10F is NOT his game. He's not going to get a softer trip to get 10F than he got today, but he didn't have near the finish this time he had last time (when he was impressive visually and via the clock). In a more competitive set of circumstances at 10F, he's off the board. There's no disgrace in just being a very good miler. He might be better on dirt also.

[Some_One]

What was wrong with that? Didn't you think he settled MUCH better today?

Totally agreed, TC didn't show any of his usual nutcase antics, maybe they called in a horse shrink.

[Spalding No!]

Totally agreed, TC didn't show any of his usual nutcase antics, maybe they called in a horse shrink.

Nutcase antics? The horse simply wants to run on the lead. The rides he was getting in his previous routes were similar to the ridiculous ones the 3yo Bind was getting in those route allowances earlier this year.

Seeing how Twirling Candy still lost, I'm not sure it will end being a good thing if they've succeeded in dulling his early zip.

[Tom]

When is the HGC anyway?

[JeremyJet]

The Beyer should come back somewhat mediocre. I guess you could say it's par for the race since they installed synth. I'm thinkin' something in the 106 range. Nothing to write home about.

They gave the winner a 107 BSF.

[toussaud]

107F puts game on dude and first dude smack dab at the top of the handicap division for 10F races.

I don't think there is another horse in the country that is capable of running that fast that far. Well I can think of one but he won't get the chance.

[keithw84]

I don't think there is another horse in the country that is capable of running that fast that far. Well I can think of one but he won't get the chance.

And that would be...?

[JeremyJet]

107F puts game on dude and first dude smack dab at the top of the handicap division for 10F races.

I don't think there is another horse in the country that is capable of running that fast that far. Well I can think of one but he won't get the chance.

Five horses that ran in the Hollywood Gold Cup are capable of running that fast.

[toussaud]

Five horses that ran in the Hollywood Gold Cup are capable of running that fast.
not at 10F


there honestly might be....6, if that, horse in the country that can break a 100 BSF at 10F.

[JeremyJet]

not at 10F

The top three, in the 10f Gold Cup, all ran that fast. SETSUKO and AWESOME GEM are capable.

[Spalding No!]

107F puts game on dude and first dude smack dab at the top of the handicap division for 10F races.

I don't think there is another horse in the country that is capable of running that fast that far. Well I can think of one but he won't get the chance.

Those two really hardly separated themselves from the division at 10f with yesterday's performance. The sheer fact that it was a blanket finish points that out.

Tizway got a 103 the only time he went 10f, Rail Trip owns a 111 and a 105, Haynesfield earned a 107 for last year's JCGC, Flat Out earned a 113 going 9f--it's not reaching to think he'll handle 10f.

[cj]

The top three, in the 10f Gold Cup, all ran that fast. SETSUKO and AWESOME GEM are capable.

Twirling Candy ran a 108 in a sprint, never a route. His best route was a 102.

Setsuko had a career best of 100.

Game on Dude had a career best of 100.

Awesome Gem, the 8 yo, had a career high of 106, FOUR years ago. He hasn't topped a 102 since 2009 in 23 starts.

Soul Candy has a top of 101.

First Dude had a career best of 103.

You really believe this group was suddenly capable of a 107 in a tight finish going 10f? I find that VERY hard to believe.

[toussaud]

Those two really hardly separated themselves from the division at 10f with yesterday's performance. The sheer fact that it was a blanket finish points that out.

Tizway got a 103 the only time he went 10f, Rail Trip owns a 111 and a 105, Haynesfield earned a 107 for last year's JCGC, Flat Out earned a 113 going 9f--it's not reaching to think he'll handle 10f.


1. 9F is not 10F. i.e look at twirling candy in the Californian/del mar derby and look at him yesterday and the sanit Anita handicap

2. haynesfield has not shown he is the same horse as he was last year

3. I will give you rail trip.


you guys are putting way to[o much stock in the blanket finish theory, first this isn't dirt, secondly, sidney's candy and game on dude aren't crappy horses. it was just a damn good horse race.

[cj]

1. 9F is not 10F. i.e look at twirling candy in the Californian/del mar derby and look at him yesterday and the sanit Anita handicap

2. haynesfield has not shown he is the same horse as he was last year

3. I will give you rail trip.


you guys are putting way to[o much stock in the blanket finish theory, first this isn't dirt, secondly, sidney's candy and game on dude aren't crappy horses. it was just a damn good horse race.

A good race yes, but it is extremely rare for three horses to finish that close and all run new tops, and especially so when the top is not by a point or two.

[Spalding No!]

1. 9F is not 10F. i.e look at twirling candy in the Californian/del mar derby and look at him yesterday and the sanit Anita handicap

So Flat Out can't possibly handle 10f because Twirling Candy can't?

2. haynesfield has not shown he is the same horse as he was last year

That's because he hasn't been running at his preferred distances. Apparently, his connections got caught up in his second to some Emerald Downs horse in the Cigar Mile.

you guys are putting way to[o much stock in the blanket finish theory, first this isn't dirt, secondly, sidney's candy and game on dude aren't crappy horses. it was just a damn good horse race.

So let me get this straight. First Dude and Game On Dude (a definitive Grade 3 horse) are now superior 10f horses, yet Twirling Candy (not Sidney's Candy), just a neck back, is not? Makes sense.

[classhandicapper]

A good race yes, but it is extremely rare for three horses to finish that close and all run new tops, and especially so when the top is not by a point or two.

It wasn't a very competitively run race and the pace looked kind of perfect to produce a fast time (not too fast and not too slow) So maybe the conditions were ideal for a fast race??? No one really made a move until the turn and the top three all lasted and finished 2-3-4.

Personally, I'm highly suspect of some of the slow Beyers assigned to some of the stakes races around the country these days but especially this year (inside and outside CA). They don't pass the smell test.

Some of the races earned figures WAY below PAR. But if you look at the horses, some of the fields were fairly deep (even though there were no superstars). They were certainly much stronger than the type of ALW races the figures suggested they were equal to. Several of the horses have also shipped out run much faster elsewhere.

I'm not sure what's going on, but it wouldn't shock me if all the shipping between synthetic and dirt, the removal of steroids, and other factors are playing havoc with figures on some circuits and the errors are just getting passed forward because of projection variants.

[JeremyJet]

Twirling Candy ran a 108 in a sprint, never a route. His best route was a 102.

Setsuko had a career best of 100.

Game on Dude had a career best of 100.

Awesome Gem, the 8 yo, had a career high of 106, FOUR years ago. He hasn't topped a 102 since 2009 in 23 starts.

Soul Candy has a top of 101.

First Dude had a career best of 103.

You really believe this group was suddenly capable of a 107 in a tight finish going 10f? I find that VERY hard to believe.

My comments were based on their Thoro-Graph speed figures. While I think the Beyer numbers are good at what they measure, I would lean towards Thoro-Graph for a more accurate figure. With that said, the five horses I mentioned are all capable of a 106/107 Beyer.

My projection of a 106 Beyer was based on what number I thought would take to win the race yesterday. That's it. I didn't go through any of the traditional preperations a figure maker would usually go through. It can be as simple as that sometimes.

[Spalding No!]

They were certainly much stronger than the type of ALW races the figures suggested they were equal to.

I wouldn't be so sure of that. Game On Dude started the year eligible for nw2x allowance, First Dude started as a nw1x allowance, Setsuko is eligible for nw1x allowance (in fact he was OTB in one earlier this year), outside Twirling Candy the Strub series was made up of nw1x, nw2x horses, Gladding was a nw2x horse who swooped in from FL and won the San Antonio, Spurrier and Worth Repeating ran in claiming races, Quindici Man's most recent wins were at Fresno and Zia Park, Crown Of Thorns--a 6yo--was eligible for nw2x to start the year and hadn't won since he was a 3yo in March.

These horses are terrible.

[JeremyJet]

You really believe this group was suddenly capable of a 107 in a tight finish going 10f? I find that VERY hard to believe.

I had five horse at 5/1 on my line. That would seem to suggest that I thought the race was very competitive. My target number was a 106 Beyer.

You're right about TWIRLING CANDY ... kind of. His top was a 103 Beyer coming into the race yesterday. But I thought he was capable of running a new top and it looks like he did ... at 10f.

SETSUKO ran a 106 Beyer in the Big Cap.

GAME ON DUDE ran much faster than a 106 Beyer in the race at CT.

AWESOME GEM ran that fast twice this year.

FIRST DUDE reached the 106 level last time out at CD.

[toussaud]

setsuko could not run a 106 running downhill with a hurricane at his back

[JeremyJet]

setsuko could not run a 106 running downhill with a hurricane at his back

That's fine. You keep thinking that.

[toussaud]

hell game on dude ran a 99 beyer in the big cap. how is a horse who finished behind the winner going to get a 7 point higher speed figure.

Setsuko has never broken a 100 in his life, and I follow socal racing religiously as that's my main circuit/track

[classhandicapper]

I wouldn't be so sure of that. Game On Dude started the year eligible for nw2x allowance, First Dude started as a nw1x allowance, Setsuko is eligible for nw1x allowance (in fact he was OTB in one earlier this year), outside Twirling Candy the Strub series was made up of nw1x, nw2x horses, Gladding was a nw2x horse who swooped in from FL and won the San Antonio, Spurrier and Worth Repeating ran in claiming races, Quindici Man's most recent wins were at Fresno and Zia Park, Crown Of Thorns--a 6yo--was eligible for nw2x to start the year and hadn't won since he was a 3yo in March.

These horses are terrible.

I understand what you are saying, BUT many of those horses were competitive in good stakes at 3 before they went through their conditions. So they were technically still "eligible" (as many good early 3YOs are), but they were also eligible to continue developing into solid 4YOs despite not having gone through their conditions. It wasn't like they were bad horses that were slowly working their way up the ranks.

Personally, I don't think yesterday's race was a solid Grade 1 caliber race, but I don't think it was a terrible race either. IMO it was at least a solid Grade 2.

"Some" of the CA horses (the Dudes for example) have crossed back and forth between east and west. Some of the horses they were competitive against outside CA have run in NY, Florida and elsewhere in better and faster races either before or after they ran against them. Take a look at the depth of the Charles Town race, the Alysheba, the Lone Star race etc... where some of these horse ran. Those were not terrible races, just the numbers look slow.

You can even look at Miss Match. Everyone is talking about how good the older mares are because of a few fast figures earned outside of CA, but Switch was competitive with the best of them on both surfaces and Miss Match has been competitive with Switch. Yesterday Miss Match was a big long shot and was well off the board. If those mares are so good and these horses are so bad, why was she 30-1 and nowhere?

Granted, I regularly talk about how the gap between older horses and mares in Grade 1 routes going long is very large. So I gave Miss Match no shot, but it says something about the quality of the colts. If they were really just ALW horses, she should have been bet like a contender and finished right there.

[JeremyJet]

hell game on dude ran a 99 beyer in the big cap. how is a horse who finished behind the winner going to get a 7 point higher speed figure.

Setsuko has never broken a 100 in his life, and I follow socal racing religiously as that's my main circuit/track

May I politely suggest that you reread some of the posts in this thread.

[classhandicapper]

hell game on dude ran a 99 beyer in the big cap. how is a horse who finished behind the winner going to get a 7 point higher speed figure.

Setsuko has never broken a 100 in his life, and I follow socal racing religiously as that's my main circuit/track

One of the biggest problems in these discussions is the assumption that a single (or even multiple) past speed figures are accurate or representative of the ability of the horses.

When I look at speed figure I sort of say to myself he got a 99 - which means he's somewhere between a 89 and 109 horse. :lol:

I'm not even exaggerating for effect. Between accuracy, race development, pace, and other issues I sometimes find races I think are off by 10 points in terms of measuring the actual ability of the horses. So there are dozens off by smaller but still significant amounts in either direction.

[cj]

I had five horse at 5/1 on my line. That would seem to suggest that I thought the race was very competitive. My target number was a 106 Beyer.

You're right about TWIRLING CANDY ... kind of. His top was a 103 Beyer coming into the race yesterday. But I thought he was capable of running a new top and it looks like he did ... at 10f.

SETSUKO ran a 106 Beyer in the Big Cap.

GAME ON DUDE ran much faster than a 106 Beyer in the race at CT.

AWESOME GEM ran that fast twice this year.

FIRST DUDE reached the 106 level last time out at CD.


Not on Beyer figures they didn't. If you make your own, that is one thing, but then you can't compare them as if they are the same.

[Spalding No!]

I understand what you are saying, BUT many of those horses were competitive in good stakes at 3 before they went through their conditions. So they were technically still "eligible" (as many good early 3YOs are), but they were also eligible to continue developing into solid 4YOs despite not having gone through their conditions. It wasn't like they were bad horses that were slowly working their way up the ranks.

Personally, I think not running in their eligible conditions hurt those horses ultimately. First Dude was a bridesmaid that ran one good race last year in the Preakness, which for me was suspect anyways when you see Ywanna Twist and Jackson Bend lapped onto him at the finish. Notice that once he was put on a more logical campaign (ie nw1x allowance>Gr3,>Gr1) he's at least found winning form. But he's hardly become a monster that should be putting up numbers above and beyond the historic average allowance horse.

As for Setsuko, while not without ability, but IMO will never win a race of consequence, probably because he never went through his conditions. He's been taught to lose. Maybe with Pleasant Colony in his pedigree, you can hold out for some further improvement.

Horses nowadays getting butchered as soon as they hint that they have any talent. For whatever reason (patience, incompetence, etc.), trainers are unable or unwilling to allow these horses to progress in a reasonable fashion. They seem to think that if they put up a big number then somehow they'll just repeat it without regard to distance, class level, etc.

Personally, I don't think yesterday's race was a solid Grade 1 caliber race, but I don't think it was a terrible race either. IMO it was at least a solid Grade 2.

It was a field of underachieving horses. A octogenarian Grade 3 type was scratching at their heels at the end (Awesome Gem).

"Some" of the CA horses (the Dudes for example) have crossed back and forth between east and west and some of the horses they were competitive against have run in NY, Florida and elsewhere in better and faster races either before or after they ran against them. Take a look at the depth of the Charles Town race, the Alysheba, the Lone Star race etc... where some of these horse also ran. Those were not terrible races. Just the numbers look slow.

There's only been two decent numbers put up this year, Tizway's Met Mile and Flat Out's Suburban. It's dubious if either can repeat. But certainly I'm not thinking that Game On Dude is capable of putting up a 110+ figure just because he finished close to those two in previous starts.

You can even look at Miss Match. Everyone is talking about how good the older mares are because of a few fast figures earned outside of CA, but Switch was competitive with the best of them on both surfaces and Miss Match has been competitive with Switch. Yesterday Miss Match was a big long shot and was well off the board. If those mares are so good and these horses are so bad, why was she 30-1 and nowhere?

I agree with the gist of this paragraph. It's insane the number of people who think that Havre De Grace, Blind Luck, and Awesome Maria should be facing males.

[JeremyJet]

Not on Beyer figures they didn't. If you make your own, that is one thing, but then you can't compare them as if they are the same.

Well, it's possible. How else do you think I was able to project the Beyer number? I was off by 1 point. I had no clue what their past Beyer numbers were and didn't even look at any PP's. All I used was Thoro-Graph numbers. Do you think that's luck or something?

[JeremyJet]

CJ,

So I take it you think the Beyer number is too fast?

[JeremyJet]

Horses nowadays getting butchered as soon as they hint that they have any talent. For whatever reason (patience, incompetence, etc.), trainers are unable or unwilling to allow these horses to progress in a reasonable fashion. They seem to think that if they put up a big number then somehow they'll just repeat it without regard to distance, class level, etc.

Why wouldn't you take a shot at hundreds-of-thousands of dollars instead of thousands of dollars if your horse shows talent early in it's campaign? Like you said, there is no guarantee the horse will reproduce that effort next time out. It would be a waste if a horse blew it's wad in an Alw race when that same performace would be good enough to win a stake.

[Spalding No!]

Why wouldn't you take a shot at hundreds-of-thousands of dollars instead of thousands of dollars if your horse shows talent early in it's campaign? Like you said, there is no guarantee the horse will reproduce that effort next time out. It would be a waste if a horse blew it's wad in an Alw race when that same performace would be good enough to win a stake.

This is probably one of the main philosophies that has ruined top class racing in this country.

I suggested that Tizway and Flat Out might have trouble reproducing because they have inconsistent form due to numerous physical issues and layoffs.

[classhandicapper]

I had five horse at 5/1 on my line. That would seem to suggest that I thought the race was very competitive. My target number was a 106 Beyer.

You're right about TWIRLING CANDY ... kind of. His top was a 103 Beyer coming into the race yesterday. But I thought he was capable of running a new top and it looks like he did ... at 10f.

SETSUKO ran a 106 Beyer in the Big Cap.

GAME ON DUDE ran much faster than a 106 Beyer in the race at CT.

AWESOME GEM ran that fast twice this year.

FIRST DUDE reached the 106 level last time out at CD.

There were a bunch of races that came up very slow on Beyers for some reason. So either the horses are bad or something else is amiss.

Some of the horses were extremely wide in those races (I suspected bad rails and such). So ground loss may account for it, but IMO something is amiss. These are not REALLY GOOD horses, but they aren't horrible either.

[JeremyJet]

This is probably one of the main philosophies that has ruined top class racing in this country.

Well, I'm sure class handicappers would have a problem with such tactics, but I don't see how this has "ruined top class racing in this country."

[classhandicapper]

Personally, I think not running in their eligible conditions hurt those horses ultimately. First Dude was a bridesmaid that ran one good race last year in the Preakness, which for me was suspect anyways when you see Ywanna Twist and Jackson Bend lapped onto him at the finish. Notice that once he was put on a more logical campaign (ie nw1x allowance>Gr3,>Gr1) he's at least found winning form. But he's hardly become a monster that should be putting up numbers above and beyond the historic average allowance horse.

As for Setsuko, while not without ability, but IMO will never win a race of consequence, probably because he never went through his conditions. He's been taught to lose. Maybe with Pleasant Colony in his pedigree, you can hold out for some further improvement.

Horses nowadays getting butchered as soon as they hint that they have any talent. For whatever reason (patience, incompetence, etc.), trainers are unable or unwilling to allow these horses to progress in a reasonable fashion. They seem to think that if they put up a big number then somehow they'll just repeat it without regard to distance, class level, etc.



It was a field of underachieving horses. A octogenarian Grade 3 type was scratching at their heels at the end (Awesome Gem).



There's only been two decent numbers put up this year, Tizway's Met Mile and Flat Out's Suburban. It's dubious if either can repeat. But certainly I'm not thinking that Game On Dude is capable of putting up a 110+ figure just because he finished close to those two in previous starts.



I agree with the gist of this paragraph. It's insane the number of people who think that Havre De Grace, Blind Luck, and Awesome Maria should be facing males.

I don't disagree with you about the best way to handle horses and think we are probably not that far apart on their ability. There's just a big gap between where I think they are and "terrible". ;)

I think some of the opinion about them is based on what I believe are some very suspect speed figures. Some people are very or totally figure oriented which is fine. But IMO there are sometimes accuracy and other issues with figures that can lead you quite astray.

[Spalding No!]

Well, I'm sure class handicappers would have a problem with such tactics, but I don't see how this has "ruined top class racing in this country."

Because the talented horses aren't allowed to "put it all together" before embarking on campaigns in top class company. Injuries become more likely, form becomes more inconsistent, running styles remain undefined, equipment changes left and right, horses get sour or chicken-hearted after a couple of gutbusters.

It basically produces the equivalent of a population of child film/TV stars. For every Natalie Portman or Leonardo DiCaprio, there's probably thousands of Dana Platos and Corey Feldmans.

[cj]

CJ,

So I take it you think the Beyer number is too fast?

If I were on the Beyer team, I would have a big problem suddenly giving three horses a 107 at 10f that had never run that number before in a route, two of them by more than a couple lengths. We are talking about older males here, not 2yos in August.

[cj]

Well, it's possible. How else do you think I was able to project the Beyer number? I was off by 1 point. I had no clue what their past Beyer numbers were and didn't even look at any PP's. All I used was Thoro-Graph numbers. Do you think that's luck or something?

I am saying you quoted that a bunch of horses had run Beyer figures that they have not run, nothing more.

[cj]

Some of the horses were extremely wide in those races (I suspected bad rails and such). So ground loss may account for it, but IMO something is amiss. These are not REALLY GOOD horses, but they aren't horrible either.

Bad rails rarely, if ever, account for low figures.

[classhandicapper]

Why wouldn't you take a shot at hundreds-of-thousands of dollars instead of thousands of dollars if your horse shows talent early in it's campaign? Like you said, there is no guarantee the horse will reproduce that effort next time out. It would be a waste if a horse blew it's wad in an Alw race when that same performace would be good enough to win a stake.

I agree. There's a fine line between the economics and development. I think once a horse has demonstrated he has the talent to compete, you have to take a shot. But there's a point where it starts becoming clear he's a notch below and won't win. I think repeated attempts and failures can stifle the horse's development. IMO throwing First Dude in that ALW race where he was probably going to WIN, was a great move. It sounds like I am placing human qualities on horses, but I think horses do get discouraged and vice versa and it impacts them. IMO ideally you want to spot horses where they have a legitimate shot to win.

[classhandicapper]

Bad rails rarely, if ever, account for low figures.

Agree. Ground loss is very tricky when it comes to Beyers because you never know what the figure maker was considering when he made his projection. All I know is that in a few of those races that came up slow some of the relevant horses lost a TON of ground.

[JeremyJet]

Because the talented horses aren't allowed to "put it all together" before embarking on campaigns in top class company. Injuries become more likely, form becomes more inconsistent, running styles remain undefined, equipment changes left and right, horses get sour or chicken-hearted after a couple of gutbusters.

It basically produces the equivalent of a population of child film/TV stars. For every Natalie Portman or Leonardo DiCaprio, there's probably thousands of Dana Platos and Corey Feldmans.

Let's say you're the owner of a 3yo who just ran a 95 Beyer in a 6f Mdn race and then ran a 102 Beyer in a 8f NW1 Alw. We're in early March and there's a 9f G3 or a G2 coming up for $150K. You would enter your horse in a NW2 Alw rather than take a shot at the stake? Keep in mind the 102 Beyer would be very competitive in the stake and your young 3yo has every right to keep improving. Really, you would skip the stake race?

[classhandicapper]

If I were on the Beyer team, I would have a big problem suddenly giving three horses a 107 at 10f that had never run that number before in a route, two of them by more than a couple lengths. We are talking about older males here, not 2yos in August.

I agree, but therein lies a potential problem.

If you have a past race too fast or slow (for whatever reason), it becomes input to the next race figure projection and can lead you astray again.

I don't have a perfect solution and there may not be be one as long as you make projection variants and are sometimes breaking out races and working with limited samples at the distance on that day.

[PhantomOnTour]

Let's say you're the owner of a 3yo who just ran a 95 Beyer in a 6f Mdn race and then ran a 102 Beyer in a 8f NW1 Alw. We're in early March and there's a 9f G3 or a G2 coming up for $150K. You would enter your horse in a NW2 Alw rather than take a shot at the stake? Keep in mind the 102 Beyer would be very competitive in the stake and your young 3yo has every right to keep improving. Really, you would skip the stake race?
He would have a hard time even finding an Alwn2x route race for 3yr olds in Mar. Once they break their n1x it's on to Stakes.
Very few 2nd level Alw races going a route for 3yr olds before the Derby

[cj]

I agree, but therein lies a potential problem.

If you have a past race too fast or slow (for whatever reason), it becomes input to the next race figure projection and can lead you astray again.

I don't have a perfect solution and there may not be be one as long as you make projection variants and are sometimes breaking out races and working with limited samples at the distance on that day.

This is true and you know I agree. However, these aren't lightly raced horse. Awesome Gem runs every 10 days!

[Spalding No!]

Let's say you're the owner of a 3yo who just ran a 95 Beyer in a 6f Mdn race and then ran a 102 Beyer in a 8f NW1 Alw. We're in early March and there's a 9f G3 or a G2 coming up for $150K. You would enter your horse in a NW2 Alw rather than take a shot at the stake? Keep in mind the 102 Beyer would be very competitive in the stake and your young 3yo has every right to keep improving. Really, you would skip the stake race?

Well, you're conveniently putting the scenario smack dab in the middle of the Derby season. Plus, you've already gone along with the nw1x allowance, which is all any horseman can hope to run in nowadays with an early season 3yo. It also seems to me that you're talking about a freak of Seattle Slew or Spectacular Bid type proportions. Of course, those types are the exception. Most horses are not that special, however. As much as today's guys think there's nothing to it (which is why we have owners and racing "managers" and figure makers trying to call the shots), the training/horsemanship aspect is a critical piece of the puzzle.

If you were being more true to the owners/trainers of today, I would bet that 95 Beyer maiden debut would be in a Grade 2 or Grade 1 race in its next start, if it hasn't been sold to Godolphin and shipped off to Dubai.

[cj]

He would have a hard time even finding an Alwn2x route race for 3yr olds in Mar. Once they break their n1x it's on to Stakes.
Very few 2nd level Alw races going a route for 3yr olds before the Derby

Chicken or the egg?

[JeremyJet]

I am saying you quoted that a bunch of horses had run Beyer figures that they have not run, nothing more.

Good answer.

You know what though, Cj? They now have run that fast ... if you want to believe it or not. And "all I am saying" is that there was data out there, before the race, to suggest these horses were already at that level. I'm just sayin'.

[classhandicapper]

He would have a hard time even finding an Alwn2x route race for 3yr olds in Mar. Once they break their n1x it's on to Stakes.
Very few 2nd level Alw races going a route for 3yr olds before the Derby

You could find a race for 3 and up if you want. I think Zito found an ALW race for Dialed In that was a NW2 (but my memory might be off).

I think the trick is figuring out where the horse really belongs and not repeatedly running it over its head where it occasionally picks up a minor award but never wins.

Even in the stakes for early 3YOs, there is a wide range. A guy like Pletcher for example sends each horse to the circuit and race he thinks best matches its ability even when he has a barn full of good 3YOs. One failure and he usually looks for a softer spot where the horse has a shot right away.

[JeremyJet]

I agree, but therein lies a potential problem.

If you have a past race too fast or slow (for whatever reason), it becomes input to the next race figure projection and can lead you astray again.

You're putting too much weight on the projection method. There are other checks & balances the figure maker is useing ... in conjunction with the projection method.

[classhandicapper]

This is true and you know I agree. However, these aren't lightly raced horse. Awesome Gem runs every 10 days!

Understood.

He also has a wide range of figures in races from Grade 3 all the way to Grade 1 when he hits the board. He has run anywhere from a 95 to 106 on different surfaces.

If you make one or two races a 95 that should have been faster, it makes it that much tougher to give him a figure in the 100s the next time, but he may deserve it because he's capable.

[classhandicapper]

You're putting too much weight on the projection method. There are other checks & balances the figure maker is useing ... in conjunction with the projection method.

There are numerous examples of bias creeping into the process and causing slowly SHRINKING figures and some would argue slowly accelerating figures by leading figure makers. Beyer has even addressed the issue because it happened to him.

They all do the best they can, but if you make a mistake (and they all do), it HAS TO creep into the interpretation of the next result and could impact the figure (especially if the race was broken out from a day or there were limited routes/sprints etc..) on that day.

[cj]

Understood.

He also has a wide range of figures in races from Grade 3 all the way to Grade 1 when he hits the board. He has run anywhere from a 95 to 106 on different surfaces.



I think that is a big stretch. The 106s came in 2007! He is an 8 year old that has had numerous chances to get back to that number.

[cj]

Good answer.

You know what though, Cj? They now have run that fast ... if you want to believe it or not. And "all I am saying" is that there was data out there, before the race, to suggest these horses were already at that level. I'm just sayin'.

Again, I think it is tough to project Beyers on the methods of others. There is no consistency that way. For every time you get a figure right trying to do it, you'll be wrong at least as often.

[JeremyJet]

I think that is a big stretch. The 106s came in 2007! He is an 8 year old that has had numerous chances to get back to that number.

CJ, he surpassed that number last year at CT ... as a 7yo. ;)

[cj]

CJ, he surpassed that number last year at CT ... as a 7yo. ;)

Again, not on Beyer he didn't. He was given a 102.

[JeremyJet]

Again, not on Beyer he didn't. He was given a 102.

Geez, you're stubborn.

[JeremyJet]

Because the talented horses aren't allowed to "put it all together" before embarking on campaigns in top class company. Injuries become more likely, form becomes more inconsistent, running styles remain undefined, equipment changes left and right, horses get sour or chicken-hearted after a couple of gutbusters.

It basically produces the equivalent of a population of child film/TV stars. For every Natalie Portman or Leonardo DiCaprio, there's probably thousands of Dana Platos and Corey Feldmans.

Where would you go next with MACLEAN'S MUSIC if you were calling the shots? He put up a 114 Beyer in a Mdn race.

[cj]

Geez, you're stubborn.

If you are saying he ran that fast on TG, fine, I get it. But, that doesn't have anything to do with Beyer. Surely some of that is weight, some of it ground loss, etc. They don't measure the same things. Since Beyer doesn't measure those extras, you can't suddenly throw it in for one race.

[cj]

Where would you go next with MACLEAN'S MUSIC if you were calling the shots? He put up a 114 Beyer in a Mdn race.

Since he hasn't run in a long time throwing him against stakes horses would be ridiculous.

[JeremyJet]

Since he hasn't run in a long time throwing him against stakes horses would be ridiculous.

Wait a minute, though. The 114 BSF came off a layoff ... his first lifetime start. Why wouldn't the trainer be able to get him ready off the layoff again. He's done it once already.

[Spalding No!]

Where would you go next with MACLEAN'S MUSIC if you were calling the shots? He put up a 114 Beyer in a Mdn race.

Nowhere if he came out injured, as apparently is the case.

A simple 6f nw1x allowance would have been great. Nothing like a repeat performance to solidify your status. It's hard enough to do that first time against winners, why tackle stakes types?

Look at the colt in CA, Runflatout. Broke his maiden going 6f in 1:07+ first week at Santa Anita. If he ran in a nw1x sprint allowance perhaps things like running style and distance capability would have been more evident depending on the outcome.

Instead, he was an automatic Derby horse. Went straight to a Grade 2 route and predictably showed too much speed and got buried. Now he's gotten minor awards sprinting and routing at the Hollywood meet without a distinct running style. If he shows up again anytime soon, I bet they throw him on the turf. His 3yo season is a complete disaster.

Had he been brought along more patiently, who knows, he might be one of the favorites for the King's Bishop or something.

Here's the extreme example. Think about some horses that started in stakes races as maidens. How many ever actually panned out or reached their full potential?

[the little guy]

Here's the extreme example. Think about some horses that started in stakes races as maidens. How many ever actually panned out or reached their full potential?

Other than Alydar and Groovy?

[Spalding No!]

Wait a minute, though. The 114 BSF came off a layoff ... his first lifetime start. Why wouldn't the trainer be able to get him ready off the layoff again. He's done it once already.

The factor your not considering is that its an animal, not a machine. If he didn't start until early in his 3yo season, it's likely he had physical issues. If, after debuting, he goes right back to the bench, it's likely he had more physical issues. There is no telling at what "percentage" of his top he will comeback at or utlimately reach upon returning.

A single performance is hardly proof that a horse is this or that calibur. Didn't some Illinois bred 6yo that had 20+ career starts just drop a 112 Beyer in a state-bred stakes recently? I'm not looking to put any future book BC bets on him off of that.

[cj]

Other than Alydar and Groovy?

The connections did their absolute best to screw up Groovy, but he was just too damn good.

[toussaud]

Hell boys at tusconova's first start was in the Churchill 2YO juvenile stakes race derby week, finished a hard closing 2nd, went on to win the hopeful and was 2nd in the BC Juvenille, and should be a good horse when he gets back

also paddy o'prado broke his maiden in the Grade 3 mile turf race they have down there at gulfstream


for me it comes down to the trainer. if dutrow or baffert is starting a maiden in a stakes race i'm going to take it seriously as they obviously think the horse can run. if the guy who trained, admerial alex is doing it he's probably going to have to beat me

[cj]

Wait a minute, though. The 114 BSF came off a layoff ... his first lifetime start. Why wouldn't the trainer be able to get him ready off the layoff again. He's done it once already.

Why would you assume he had issues before that race? He clearly has had issues since.

[the little guy]

The connections did their absolute best to screw up Groovy, but he was just too damn good.


No argument here.

Didn't he win his debut in a Stake at the Meadowlands?

[Spalding No!]

Other than Alydar and Groovy?

Alydar would have won the Triple Crown if he had started in a maiden special weight. I hope they throw the book at John Veitch.

They tried to kill Groovy, he was too tough.

[cj]

No argument here.

Didn't he win his debut in a Stake at the Meadowlands?

He did.

[classhandicapper]

Wait a minute, though. The 114 BSF came off a layoff ... his first lifetime start. Why wouldn't the trainer be able to get him ready off the layoff again. He's done it once already.

IMO that was another "suspect" figure. I could probably make a case that it was too fast. But even if I assume it was correct, IMO a 114 against a very overmatched group of maidens is not the same as taking heat from other legitimate stakes horses and then finishing well enough to earn a 114.

If he was mine and was healthy, I certainly would NOT take him to Saratoga to run in the Grade 1 sprint for 3YOs up there even though he'd look like the fastest horse on figures. I'd find a NW1 or a minor stake that was a little better than a NW1 and run him there. If he was very impressive again, then I'd take a shot against the best 3YOs sprinting, try stretching him out to 7F, etc...

[Spalding No!]

Hell boys at tusconova's first start was in the Churchill 2YO juvenile stakes race derby week, finished a hard closing 2nd, went on to win the hopeful and was 2nd in the BC Juvenille, and should be a good horse when he gets back

He started 4 times months apart and went right to the bench training for his first start at 3. Success.

also paddy o'prado broke his maiden in the Grade 3 mile turf race they have down there at gulfstream

It was stupid campaigning like that that cost him the Turf and the 3yo Eclipse last year. Probably had something to do with his brilliant 4yo campaign as well.


for me it comes down to the trainer. if dutrow or baffert is starting a maiden in a stakes race i'm going to take it seriously as they obviously think the horse can run. if the guy who trained, admerial alex is doing it he's probably going to have to beat me

Dutrow didn't train Boys Of Toscanova for its first start.

[classhandicapper]

Why would you assume he had issues before that race? He clearly has had issues since.

Have you read anything?

I remember reading right after the race that they were going to give him a break because they thought the first race was so fast. Definitely sounded like Sheet reading. But maybe something is amiss.

[JeremyJet]

The factor your not considering is that its an animal, not a machine. If he didn't start until early in his 3yo season, it's likely he had physical issues. If, after debuting, he goes right back to the bench, it's likely he had more physical issues. There is no telling at what "percentage" of his top he will comeback at or utlimately reach upon returning.

A single performance is hardly proof that a horse is this or that calibur. Didn't some Illinois bred 6yo that had 20+ career starts just drop a 112 Beyer in a state-bred stakes recently? I'm not looking to put any future book BC bets on him off of that.

You're correct, horses are not machines. But I think it's safe to assume he won't show up in a stake where a 114 is needed to win.

[classhandicapper]

I think we should differentiate between a single start in a Stake as a 2YO maiden (they are usually the equivalent of a NW1 ALW race) and a series of races that are clearly over a horse's head.

Personally, I don't have much of a problem with taking a single "shot". It's when the horse is repeatedly over its head, at the wrong distance, on the wrong surface etc... that I think it does damage to its development over and above potentially blowing chances to win races.

[Spalding No!]

You're correct, horses are not machines. But I think it's safe to assume he won't show up in a stake where a 114 is needed to win.

I suppose not. I guess that guy who trained Formal Gold really blew it. He could have won the Haskell and Travers off his maiden win.

Hell, he should have debuted in the Belmont Stakes, or the Riva Ridge at the very least.

[JeremyJet]

Beyer must have been reading this thread yesterday. They adjusted the Hollywood Gold Cup number down to a 106.

[sammy the sage]

I think that is a big stretch. The 106s came in 2007! He is an 8 year old that has had numerous chances to get back to that number.

There a MORE than few 7/8yr olds...actually...even a couple of 9 yr olds SUDDENLY running their FASTEST race EVER... :rolleyes:

[cj]

There a MORE than few 7/8yr olds...actually...even a couple of 9 yr olds SUDDENLY running their FASTEST race EVER... :rolleyes:

Oh really? I love to hear of a few, especially without a recent trainer change.

[cj]

Beyer must have been reading this thread yesterday. They adjusted the Hollywood Gold Cup number down to a 106.

I'm sure he is having issues with the number. There are two routes on the card, and the variants he used for the two races are 10 points apart. All sprints, both before and after the routes, are constant.

[Tom]

I know I will sleep better with the 106 on record. Whew!

[classhandicapper]

I know I will sleep better with the 106 on record. Whew!

You want to sleep even better?

Forget the number.

It was about a solid Grade 2 race that wasn't run very competitively early. The 1-2-3 horses early finished 2-3-4. The winner ran well to close them down. OK, time for a nap. ;)

[gm10]

I know I will sleep better with the 106 on record. Whew!

I acknowledge that this is a weird question, but I am curious as to why Canandaigua is served by four airports?

[Tom]

It is?

Monroe County is the real one, the others, I guess are small one-runway commuter.

Yes - two are private, small plane ones, and Canandaigua is commuter, no jets.

[cj]

You want to sleep even better?

Forget the number.

It was about a solid Grade 2 race that wasn't run very competitively early. The 1-2-3 horses early finished 2-3-4. The winner ran well to close them down. OK, time for a nap. ;)

Given the fractions, I would take the view the winner had a good trip and the other closers stunk. The early horses ran better than the winner.

[PhantomOnTour]

My numbers for the race came back pretty strong; then again, it's an AWS and an infrequently run distance.
I got it at: 114-116-116

[classhandicapper]

Given the fractions, I would take the view the winner had a good trip and the other closers stunk. The early horses ran better than the winner.

Could be.

It's tough to know when the figure itself is controversial and it's a rarely run distance.

He worked for the lead briefly early and then was more or less loose going easy until the turn when I thought TC and then Setsuko might have moved just a "tad" prematurely to challenge him. It's not often that there are almost no challenges in a Grade 1 race until the turn.

Personally, I think Twirling Candy is the best of the top 4 horses but doesn't want to go that far. I think the other two "Dudes" are close and will probably take turns beating each other.

[JeremyJet]

I'm sure he is having issues with the number. There are two routes on the card, and the variants he used for the two races are 10 points apart. All sprints, both before and after the routes, are constant.

Hmmm, well, you can't accuse them of projecting the Gold Cup number since none of the horses in the race were at the 106 level before the race. Right? What kind of Beyers were the horses in the Swaps capable of?

Do they use the same distance-to-distance adjustments for 9f and 10f? I don't know because I don't subscribe to Simulcast Weekly anymore. I pretty sure you know the answer to this. What is it?

[Steve R]

My numbers for the race came back pretty strong; then again, it's an AWS and an infrequently run distance.
I got it at: 114-116-116
My figure was the equivalent of a BSF 116 as well.

[gm10]

I like the Dudes but I'm not getting any big numbers for them in this race.
The way FD won certainly doesn't suggest a big number to me.
Just my opinion.

[cj]

My figure was the equivalent of a BSF 116 as well.

The real question is what kind of numbers did the horses have coming in on the Beyer scale.

[PhantomOnTour]

My figure was the equivalent of a BSF 116 as well.
I don't use Beyers or the Beyer scale for my figs.
A 116 on my numbers doesn't equal a 116 BSF.
A 116 BSF would be in the neighborhood of a 128 on my numbers.

[classhandicapper]

The real question is what kind of numbers did the horses have coming in on the Beyer scale.

I'm asking a different question.

Were the numbers they had coming in even right to begin with?

That's one "potential" flaw with the projection method.

If you have any biases in your analysis or simply make an occasional error (and we all do), those errors then tend to get passed forward because they become the input for future races.

What some people do is try to anchor their figures to the PARs by also using PARs in the analysis and not just a projection variant, but that opens up other problems long term because the quality of horses on a particular circuit could change over time.

[cj]

I'm asking a different question.

Were the numbers they had coming in even right to begin with?

That's one "potential" flaw with the projection method.

If you have any biases in your analysis or simply make an occasional error (and we all do), those errors then tend to get passed forward because they become the input for future races.

What some people do is try to anchor their figures to the PARs by also using PARs in the analysis and not just a projection variant, but that opens up other problems long term because the quality of horses on a particular circuit could change over time.

While there are dangers in the projection method, I think you are overstating how often it happens. To assume a mistake is repeated and time and time again because of a bad projection is not reality. I know personally, I will trust the clock much more often than a projection that doesn't fit with the rest of the races.

[Tom]

If you don't project and just use pars, aren't you then always adjusting toward the par and not the horses? If horse are really getting slower, won't you negate that trend by using a standard that might not be reality anymore?