"negative" jockey switches

[kenwoodallpromos]

I'm thinking maybe better jockeys jump off contenders due to contract or first choice obligations and not necessarily because the new horse is a stronger contender. Any opinions on that or other jockey switches easily missed?

[Hosshead]

Ken, although better jockeys jump off horses because they think the horse won't win, the reasons you gave are also true. ie- Opting for a trainer (or owner) that will give them business in the future etc. The key word you mentioned is contender. That means they're not jumping off just any horse in the race. However if they are truly a "better jockey", then you have to assume that a "lesser" jockey will take their place. Those words imply "skill level". Now if you think your "contender" will win by open daylight, -there's no problem right? But if your contender loses a photo...... See what I mean?

The other aspect is the fact that the information that a lot of people are using to make that horse a "contender", is based upon races (pp's) that had the "better" jockey on the horse. Had the "lesser" jockey been riding the horse previously, he may not even be a "contender" today.

I used to think that if a trainer has a horse ready to win, he will put a jock up that will do the job. And true, some jockey colonies are so deep, that you don't have to worry.
But if it's a close race, thats where the skill level comes into play.

[superfecta]

Is the amount of times the horse wins with a different jock that pcked up the mount after the "better" jock chooses a horse in the same race.I've seen it enough to discount the thought the jock is choosing the better of the two .

[kenwoodallpromos]

I would like to think of scenarios where a jockey switch other than positive may be just as good, like those put forward in this thread. The guess work starts if I start wondering if a race jock is doing the workouts, or how long prior to publishing of entries the trainers really picks the jockey! Since I very generally think jockeys just have to keep from falling off and compliment the horse's racing style, it would be easy for me to miss the boat when the right jockey matters most!! I think that includes not only the top jocks, but the ones who are gate-ers, and the ones who know which paths to take in case of bias or trouble.