8-1 over 60-1 at Churchill Pays ............

[BMustang]

$243.40

In a full field of 12 3YO and Up Maidens going 7 furlongs in the 11th Rece on July 4th at Churchill Downs.

Does anyone have a rational explanation of why a Margolis/McGee, Brigmohan/Hernandez exacta at those odds would only pay $243.40???

The rule of thumb, multiply the place price ($55.00) times the win price (18.80) will normally put you in the ballpark. It comes out to $1034, and the Vegas Quinella (half the place price times the win price) comes out to $517. The trifecta with the 5-2 choice in third place returned $2,743.80

There was a lengthy Tote Delay following the conclusion of the race. We assumed it was to calculate all of the pools that had to be paid out due to the last day of the meet. Seems it turns out that they were still betting in North Dakota. :mad:

[mannyberrios]

19%Takeout!

[cj's dad]

Exacta payoffs from other 12 horse fields at CD:

Race 6-
3/1 over 24/1 = $155 - the 3/1 was the 2nd choice and the second horse was the 8th choice. - Pool was $155,000

Race 9-
9/1 over 14/1 = $303- the first was 4th choice and the second was 6th choice- Pool was $196,000

Race 11-
8/1 over 60/1 = $243 the horses were the 5th and 11th choices respectively. Pool was $218,000

Race 6 looks a little light but the winner was the 2nd choice. I would have been slightly disappointed.

Race 9 looks like a fair price. satisfied if I had it.

Race 11 looks fishy to me.

Note-
19% takeout obviously applies to all races at CD and none are as out of whack as this payout.

[thaskalos]

Terrible payoff...especially when you consider the size of the exacta pool.

[Grits]

The payout for the Queen's Plate exacta, where, if I'm not mistaken the takeout is higher for exactas, a 9-2, Inglorious, over a 60-1, Hippolytus was almost twice as much. Granted the pool may have been larger on the stake as opposed to the one on the finale at CD, still this seems light. Odd.


Queen's Plate S. 1 1/4 Miles | 3 Year Olds | STAKES | State Bred

# HORSE JOCKEY

WIN PLACE SHOW 9 Inglorious L. Contreras $11.00 $6.40 $4.70
15 Hippolytus T. Pizarro $41.30 $22.20
5 Pender Harbour C. Sutherland $8.70

Times in 5ths: :234 :473 1:121 1:373 2:023

Times in 100ths: :23.86 :47.66 1:12.35 1:37.76 2:02.63

Winning Trainer: Carroll Josie | Owner: Donver Stable


Unplaced horses listed in order of finish. Also ran: Bowman's Causeway, Queen'splatekitten, Seawatch, Check Your Soul, Head Honcho, Enduring Star, Curgone, Ojibway Signal, Imhotep, Oh Canada, Strike Oil, One Big Gator, Maple Leaf Kitten and Okiyama $2 Exactor (9-15) Paid: $415.20, $2 Triactor (9-15-5) Paid: $5,554.50, $1 Pick 3 (9-13-9) 3 Correct Paid: $2,898.30 Pick 3 Pool $50,337.00 , $1 Superfecta (9-15-5-16) Paid: $22,375.35

[DJofSD]

Smells like barn money to me.

How large of a wager would it take to "depress" the pay outs? Hard to tell without the details of totals for each combination. But, I'm guessing that connections of one of the two horses did an exacta box with the field.

[Rapid Grey]

Perfect example of a race where an organization like HANA should get involved. Have Churchill open up their books and explain the reason for the short payout. Perhaps just someone pounding the winner in the exacta pool, or maybe there was past-posting. Either way it would show up in their wagering logs for that race.

I would much rather HANA take issue with things like this than the boycotting.

[BMustang]

Smells like barn money to me.

How large of a wager would it take to "depress" the pay outs? Hard to tell without the details of totals for each combination. But, I'm guessing that connections of one of the two horses did an exacta box with the field.

Even at that, they could not pour enough money in to depress a price to that level. If it were a $20 box or even a $100 box, they would have had to make the same bet on the other 10 possibilities.

After the takeout there would still be $176,580 for distribution/payoff.

$243 equates to 726 winning $2 tickets. Let's say barn money accounted for 50 of them ( a $100 ticket). Without the $100 wager the payoff would have been $261 - still lousy.

I too would like to know where the majority of the winning tickets were purchased - and when.

[jelly]

Perfect example of a race where an organization like HANA should get involved. Have Churchill open up their books and explain the reason for the short payout. Perhaps just someone pounding the winner in the exacta pool, or maybe there was past-posting. Either way it would show up in their wagering logs for that race.

I would much rather HANA take issue with things like this than the boycotting.



I think HANA can do both.

I'd like hana to send an email and see if Churchill will give an explanation on this.

Let's see how Churchill handles a simple email from it's customers.

[Stillriledup]

[/COLOR]



I think HANA can do both.

I'd like hana to send an email and see if Churchill will give an explanation on this.

Let's see how Churchill handles a simple email from it's customers.

HANA has to take care of the odd payoffs the other day in the Pick 5 at Hollywood first, than, they can get to this.

[parlay]

an astonishing payoff. i was shocked, and thankful it wasnt me taking the haircut. Verrry short.

[Stillriledup]

an astonishing payoff. i was shocked, and thankful it wasnt me taking the haircut. Verrry short.

The thing about this payoff that's different from the travesty that took place at Hollywood the other day is that the exacta pool isnt a blind pool. Theoretically, you could have seen the 'low' exacta payouts late in the betting cycle and took advantage of a win and place bet on a horse that was 60-1 in the win pool, but much lower in the exacta pool.

We automatically assume that 60-1 is the 'accurate' price and the exacta is short, but you could make the case that the exacta price was the more 'accurate' representation of the horse's true chances and the win pool was just an aberration..

[thaskalos]

This payoff warrants an investigation.

[takeout]

Looks to me like maybe someone had a thousand on it and took down roughly half the pool.

[senortout]

I don't bet exactas, but still, I'd think this was reasonable and this is why....if a better is red hot on an 8-1 shot and so enamored of the horse, he could just as easily key that one on top of the entire field rather than box with only the logical contenders.....for the exact same amount of money if say, he could only eliminate half the field using logic. With an 8-1 shot, that long shot he left off the ticket in order to box, ruins him anyway!

[castaway01]

I don't bet exactas, but still, I'd think this was reasonable and this is why....if a better is red hot on an 8-1 shot and so enamored of the horse, he could just as easily key that one on top of the entire field rather than box with only the logical contenders.....for the exact same amount of money if say, he could only eliminate half the field using logic. With an 8-1 shot, that long shot he left off the ticket in order to box, ruins him anyway!

So someone wheeled the 8-1 over the whole field AND did it with $1000 exactas to crush the price AND got a 60-1 to happen to run second? Not totally impossible but it doesn't happen every day. It wasn't a $2 wheel here.

If someone has the probable payoffs for all exactas with the 8-1 shot on top, we could find out if just the winning combination was bet heavily or all the possible combinations. It's definitely a very low return though.

[jotb]

Six of the horses worked on 6-27..Five of them worked 5/8ths that morning..

Chilled 100.0b 3/37
Ballyclough 100.60b 6/27---2nd choice
Majestic Man 101.20b 11/37
Windswept 101.20b 11/37
Troilus 101.80bg 23/37

Rothko 48.60b---Race favorite

[Stillriledup]

Anyone know the results of this 'investigation'?

[lamboguy]

there are some very sophisticated players these days with byer numbers and pace figures that are unreal. these guys all seem to wind up on the same number all the time.

for me, i know i am a complete dope, i have my problems picking 1 horse let alone 4 in order. i let all the guys with the great numbers hit all those nice tricks. i play races that are full of first time starters, if a group of people come up with some great pace figures to beat me, they deserve my money.

[Edward DeVere]

The powers that be ruled that everything was on the up-&-up.

[Valuist]

Was that Margolis runner a first time starter? Often times with first timers, the win pool is NOT efficient. See this often in the P3 pool but its usually the other way; two 7-2 shots win and a 3-1 first timer wins and the P3 ends up paying $340.

[Stillriledup]

The powers that be ruled that everything was on the up-&-up.

Interesting.

[PaceAdvantage]

there are some very sophisticated players these days with byer numbers and pace figures that are unreal. these guys all seem to wind up on the same number all the time.

for me, i know i am a complete dope, i have my problems picking 1 horse let alone 4 in order. i let all the guys with the great numbers hit all those nice tricks. i play races that are full of first time starters, if a group of people come up with some great pace figures to beat me, they deserve my money.Love the sarcasm...is the price of gold related to this in any way? :lol: