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View Full Version : Prioress Stakes (G.1)

JeremyJet
07-04-2011, 01:30 PM
HER SMILE 5
ROMAN TREASURE 9
OUR YEAR 5
QUANTUM MISS 3
ALIENATION 5
POMEROYS PISTOL 5
It will be interesting to see how QUANTUM MISS performs in here. Comes into this off a three race win streak with her last a track record performance at Penn National. I'm confident she will go off the favorite as the New York handicappers are a sharp bunch. Definitely the one to beat, but I don't see any value here.

The horse I thought could offer some value is supposedly going to be scratched. HER SMILE looks primed for a big effort and is 10/1 M/L. I would be all over that if she went off at that price. The race would look like this if she does scratch:


--SCR--
ROMAN TREASURE 7
OUR YEAR 4
QUANTUM MISS 5/2
ALIENATION 4
POMEROYS PISTOL 4
This might not turn out to be a great betting race, but it's a fascinating race to make a line for.
PhantomOnTour
07-04-2011, 01:35 PM
Hope I don't jinx us JJ but I also like Her Smile in this spot. Lotsa speed to aide her late run on the cutback...good luck :ThmbUp:
Casino
07-04-2011, 05:25 PM
Hope I don't jinx us JJ but I also like Her Smile in this spot. Lotsa speed to aide her late run on the cutback...good luck :ThmbUp:

POT nice call go have yourself a steak dinner!
JeremyJet
07-04-2011, 05:25 PM
That's how we do it, baby! I'm glad they didn't scratch her and couldn't understand why they even entertained the thought. She fit in this spot. Can't explain the money Baffert's horse took.
PhantomOnTour
07-04-2011, 05:39 PM
Good call JJ :ThmbUp:
Alienation really scared me. When Baffert gives 'em a work over the strip they are usually money...not today.
Used half my bet with Alienation in the ex but i came away okay.
Hit a win bet and ex
JeremyJet
07-04-2011, 05:46 PM
It actually turned out to be a good betting race. The Kelly Criterion called for the following wagers:

$1,000 Bank with a full Kelly
-----------------------------

$72
0
$118
$37
0
$42
Wagered: $269
Returned: $583
Profit: $314
PaceAdvantage
07-04-2011, 08:41 PM
nice pick :ThmbUp:
Some_One
07-05-2011, 02:16 AM
That's how we do it, baby! I'm glad they didn't scratch her and couldn't understand why they even entertained the thought. She fit in this spot. Can't explain the money Baffert's horse took.

Over at ThoroGraph, Jerry Brown was saying he was try to get Flay to scratch, Pletcher said not to because he expected a pace meltdown....well you know the end of the story already.
JeremyJet
07-05-2011, 02:58 PM
Over at ThoroGraph, Jerry Brown was saying he was try to get Flay to scratch, Pletcher said not to because he expected a pace meltdown....well you know the end of the story already.

Everyone in the race, other that the winner, was off a top and in danger of a bounce. I'm surprised TGJB would be the one asking for the scratch since HER SMILE was the only horse in the race that looked like she could go forward. Based on the 96 Beyer gave the winner, it looks like a 2 point forward move on the Thoro-Graph scale.