Bris pars

[sam i am]

Does any one use bris pars as part of their repetoire if so, how, I have been using them for the last few months and I think they are useless. Just one mans option.

Thanks,
David

[sam i am]

Opinion
not option

[cj]

I have no idea where they get those pars from, but agreed, they are worthless!

[BillW]

I looked at them a few years ago. I don't remember the details but the impression I was left with was that they were simplistic, computer generated averages i.e. average of winners/leaders figure with no minimum sample size etc. I do recall that their derivation was pretty easy to recognize.

Bill

[JustRalph]

I find that they are only good when a track is playing completely even........as in no bias at all. When you see horses that are running almost the exact same times (same distance etc) as they did last out on the same track........the pars seem to be pretty close. But you don't often see tracks that stay the same week in and week out.

[Tom]

I got a master list of thier partimes table from the old BBS-don't know if it is in the library on the website, but basically, they have a universal set of pars based claimng prices and purse values that they use across all tracks. So an Allowance race with a purse of $45,000 has a par of "X" and pace pars as well. Problem is that when you have a state bred race with inflated purses, they are calling out a par higher than an open allowance race. And the pace pars, when printed out, made very little sense. A low priced claimer might have pace pars of 84 83 85 while a high priced claimer (significantly higher) might have pars of 85 78 89.
Check out an allowacne race for NYbred NW1 at Aqu and see how many horse have ever run to par.

[VetScratch]

Tom,
I got a master list of thier partimes table from the old BBS-don't know if it is in the library on the website, but basically, they have a universal set of pars based on claimng prices and purse values that they use across all tracks.For the past several years, my database (extracted from BRIS downloads) has included BRIS pace and speed pars... and they clearly have changed their methods since the "old BBS" days and the early web days. It seems like the pars are now classified by track, surface/course, distance, sex, ages, restrictions, eligibility conditions, and race classifications as well as purse/claiming levels.

Dirt pars are supposed to be derived only from Fast and Good conditions, and I think Firm may be the single default for Turf pars.

IMHO, after many years, they are finally producing pars that are credible enough to be useful.

Users of the BRIS PP Generator can give this angle some thought:

Verify that the Track Bias statistics actually match today's distance, as opposed to defaulting to All Sprints or All Routes (for infrequently carded distances). When the distances match, use the Pace Pars (for E1 and E2) with the Track Bias figures for Winner's Average Beaten Lengths (for WnrAvgBL at 1st call and 2nd call) to compute Adjusted Pace Pars, as shown below.Notes: the BRIS pace rating scale is always 2 points per length,
and all data can be viewed/printed via the PP Generator software.

Today's Race is 6f, and today's Meet-To-Date Track Bias data is also for 6f.

BRIS__________ E1 E2 Late
6f Pace Pars: 86 88 87

TrackBias_____ 1stCall 2ndCall
6f WnrAvgBL: 4.2 3.2

Adjusted______ E1 E2
6f Pace Figs: 78 82

Adjusted E1 Pace = 86-(2*4.2) = 77.6 = 78 rounded
Adjusted E2 Pace = 88-(2*3.2) = 81.6 = 82 roundedWhat we have calculated are E1 and E2 pace figures adjusted to represent the average running position for par winners of today's race relative to the 6f Track Bias that has prevailed Meet-To-Date.

These adjusted E1 and E2 pace figures can be used sort of like fulcrum pace pars to project how horses with various ESP running styles and past-performance pace ratings will compete in today's race.

I think some folks don't like/believe/trust BRIS Pace Pars simply because they forget that par pace figures always represent a par race leader. Some method of adjustment (like the one I showed above) is needed to compute par pace figures that compare apples-to-apples with actual past performance pace figures (unless you are only looking to find wire-to-wire winners).

[JimL]

I am sure this has been answered on this forum before however I did a search and could not find the answer. Bris and TSN, I believe have different pars, pace and speed figures. Being almost the same company how does this happen? Any thoughts on who is more reliable? JimL

[VetScratch]

JimL,

Who is more reliable?

Since BRIS and TSN reportedly are the same company/people, I would think they would be smart enough to balance or at least alternate their emphasis on reliability. :)

The way they are different is primary source of data as value-added resellers: BRIS (DRF) and TSN (EquiBase). This year, crucifying Crist (DRF) seems to be in vogue, so I imagine TSN is gaining marketshare.

[JimL]

Vet, I probably should have asked who has the more predictive pace and speed numbers, TSN, or Bris. JimL

[BillW]

Originally posted by JimL
Vet, I probably should have asked who has the more predictive pace and speed numbers, TSN, or Bris. JimL

Jim,

The IV's/ROI's are virtually the same. I have just completed a major overhaul in my software and in the process purged the Bris data from my database so I can't provide figures, but it was of interest to me when I switched from Bris to TSN last July.

Bill

[JimL]

Bill, I cant thank you enough for your reply. I use a computer program that I am absolutely satisfied with however I find I must have complete past performances to handicap. I changed from Bris to Tsn for economic reasons. You can imagine my surprize when the pace and speed numbers were not the same. Jim

[BillW]

JimL,

Be careful with the two, you cannot mix them. For instance, (a simplsitic example) if you were calculating average final speed and your past performance lines were mixed Bris/TSN, you would get a bogus number, But if you calculated IV's on horses ave Bris final speed fig. then seperately calculated IV's on horses ave TSN final speed fig, your numbers would be comparable.

Bill

[Larry Hamilton]

I would love to see a discussion of why Par numbers have utility. The single fact I cant get around is in the way pars (ALL PARS) are calculated. It's an average of a pile of numbers resulting in some number to peg the label "par" on. With a normal distribution this means HALF of those who could not run to par won.

[JimL]

Bill, TSN completly now. Good advice. Thanks again.

[takeout]

Larry Hamilton,

I was thinking about the same thing just the other day.

[Tom]

Vetscratch...good post. Neat idea, using the pars and meet stats that way. Thanks. Glad to hear they are doing pars better theses days-I haven't looked at the master list in several years, since I don't visit the BB anymore. I should check before I stick my foot in my mouth. BTW,,,were you posting on their old BB back in the day? I was Bulldog on the board.

Larry....

I make pars by looking at the speed numbers for a given class or classes. I make a par of the average to use for reference, but for really usinig the numbers, I split the data into three groups-the bottom 25%, the middle 50% , and the top 25%. I consider everything in the middle as average for the class and nothing to get excited about. The top and botton qurters are the ones I am interested in-either good or bad for the class. I conside a conteder any horse who has run at least as good as the lower boundary of the middle half. But in reality, say the bottom 25% boundary is 78 and horse A has run a 77 and Horse B has run a 79. I don't suppose that there is any real difference between these two, Pars aren't always important in every race. I see a lot of races where nothing has run even in the middle 50%. Some races, several horses have races in the upper 25%.
But most races, my Pars help me with contenders.

[VetScratch]

Tom,

I joined the BRIS web service about 6 years ago, but others in my family have used BRIS since the BBS-only days. Like most popular services, they praise the good old days when customer service was handled by top-notch people who had hands-on access and authority to fix problems.

[LOU M.]

Shouldn't the pars be that of the horses in the race. If all horses are below "par" whats' the point. Don't the horses in the race actually create what should happen,therefore project what the par should be, not what some average of past races which had totally different horse running?Wouldn"t some figure based on the class of the horses in todays race should be created (how I don't know),and the performance of the horses in that race determine what figure they earn, not against some "par" figure. Just food for thought.

[Terry Riggs]

LOU M.

Things you read that make you scratch your head and say Hmmm.

Well said, I totally agree.

Regards, Terry

[VetScratch]

Pars for pace, speed, and many other figures are fundamental to modern handicapping. If a horse runs 6f in 109.0 at HOL, you had better not project 6f in 109.0 if he ships to GLD.

PAR (pär) n. 1. An amount or a level considered to be average; a standard. 2. An equality of status, level, or value; equal footing. 3. The established value of a monetary unit expressed in terms of a monetary unit of another country using the same metal standard. 4. The face value of a stock, bond, or other negotiable instrument. 5. Sports. The number of golf strokes considered necessary to complete a hole or course in expert play. --par tr.v. parred, par·ring, pars. Sports. 1. To score par on (a hole or course) in golf. --par adj. 1. Equal to the standard; normal. 2. Of or relating to monetary face value.

[LOU M.]

I agree that pars are valuable when comparing track to track. But what value is there in saying all the horses in this race are below par? You still have to compare them to each other don"t you? One horse will ultimately be the fastest on paper,does it matter whether hes' capable of running to par?

[VetScratch]

Whether we acknowledge it or not, and whether we call it a "par" concept or not... all experienced players intuitively incorporate "pars" into their handicapping. As you examine past performances, if you "sense" that a race fills above or below expectations for the as-written conditions at your favorite track, you intuitively change the way you evaluate the significance of many handicapping factors.

For example, the significance of a statistically outstanding trainer angle depends on how a race fills. A trainer may win 35% of his races with "first-time route" horses, but what this may mean in a $25,000 claiming route will depend on how the race fills against our established expectations for what it takes to win today's race. Pars give us a way to estimate the relative strength of today's field for the as-written race conditions. The significance we attach to the trainer angle should vary, depending on how many of today's starters appear to be legitimate contenders versus our par expectations.

[shanta]

I AGREE WITH WHAT YOU SAID ABOUT HORSES RUNNING AGAINST ONE ANOTHER IN THIS RACE TODAY.THE WINNER OF TODAYS RACE WILL HAVE RUN PAR FOR "THIS" RACE.I GUESS!PARS TO ME ARE JUST AN AVERAGING OF THINGS(FINAL TIME,2ND CALL PACE,ETC).AND AVERAGING TO ME FAILS TO RECOGNIZE CERTAIN UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCES THAT MIGHT HAVE HAPPENED IN THE RACE BEING LOOKED AT.ALSO HAVE NEVER REALLY BOUGHT INTO THE MODELING OF RACETRACKS. OR SHOULD I SAY THE MODELING OF WINNERS AT RACETRACKS.EACH RACE BEING RUN TODAY HAS NEVER BEEN RUN BEFORE WITH THIS MIX OF HORSES AND THEIR CURRENT FORM CYCLE SO I ALWAYS TRY TO LOOK AT EACH RACE FROM THIS STANDPOINT. HOWEVER I "DO HAVE" THE UTMOST RESPECT AND ADMIRATION FOR THOSE WHO USE THESE ELEMENTS IN THEIR HANDICAPPING . LIKE THE SAYING GOES"TO EACH HIS OWN"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! RICH

[pmd62ndst]

Lou M,

I use pars in two ways:

1. Determing class rises or drops. Especially with shippers or claim-to-allowance horses, it's not only important to know if this
horse is rising or dropping class, but by how much. Research has shown me various "hidden" class rises or drops are the real gems of this angle. It has shown me that I just can't rely solely on dollar amount to determine class rises/drops.

2. If you make your own Speed Figures, pars are important for determining Track Variants. If your speed figures for a card are all 10 points over par, well, it doesn't take much to determine that the track was fast that day. And if you argue, couldn't have all the races that day just had fast races, you've never attempted to make your own Track Variants. More often, track variants are very consistant for the day. With this knowledge, you can determine if the track is fast or slow, usually within the first couple races.

I agree with you that Pars are not meant to determine who's going to win a race (somebody's gotta win, right?) but it's important to use as part of your decision-making process.

PMD

[sam i am]

The only time I use pars Is in maiden races, if the horses that have run have yet to par, and there is a firster that has somethings that I like I will go strong on the first time starter.

David

[Niko]

I was really interested in pars a while back after attending a free seminar by Quinn and Brohamar at the local track. I couldn't grasp why the concept made sense but they said more longshots could be found in races where none of the horses have met par, also known as chaos races. I recently checked horses who met par for pace or near to it. I couldn't find any way to make money with it so I gave up on it. For me it's more important who's racing against who then if someone made par. The consistency, speed and pace of the contenders tell me more about a race then the par. This is really noticable when you come across a track that is undergoing changes in the type of horses coming into the current meet.

[HTRFGuy]

Jim L..

In the FWIW department, at races of 8 to 8.5 furlongs, BRIS and TSN pars are related as follows...

TSN pace par = (about) BRIS pace par - 6


I am sure this has been answered on this forum before however I did a search and could not find the answer. Bris and TSN, I believe have different pars, pace and speed figures. Being almost the same company how does this happen? Any thoughts on who is more reliable? JimL