Using Software

[Jaguar]

Recently, through e-mail and by pm- I have been made aware that some newcomers to horse handicapping- both board members and lurkers- have been betting on horses based upon raw software output- and not based upon track-specific models.

This is unwise and might be compared to betting newspaper picks. Eventually this approach will lead to frustration and disappointment.

I encourage anyone who is contemplating buying handicapping software to consider programs which make statistical models of the tracks the bettor intends to play.

Horse racing is a connections game and the trainer is a key component in any handicapping criteria. A program which does not analyze trainer stats and integrate that information into the program's predictions and output is a second-rate program.

Moreover, when contacting developers and requesting sample output from their program, make sure that the samples which you receive are based on models.

It seems that some developers are sending prospective customers raw output. No good.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[trying2win]

Jaguar,

Thanks for the wise advice.

Regards,

Trying2win

[Tom]

Not true.
I hardly ever use trainer stats. Most times, I have no idea who trains the horse I am betting. Seldom look at the jockey.
Don't use a track model or profile anywhere near as much as I used to, other than to generally say dirt-early speed, turf, late speed. Generally. not a rule.
I am winning more than when I was tied to models.
Trainers maybe profitable to some, but certainly a factor that can be ignored.
My emphasis is on pace, but there are winners out there who do no tuse pace.
You just can't make blanket statements about how people handicap and what is important.

[SAL]

I use connections as a major part of my handicapping. Trainer ability and intent are VERY important to me, a lot of my best plays come from trainer moves and changes (see my picks).

I also know people that handicap like Tom, with no regard to the trainer whatsoever. I have no doubt that you can do reasonably well doing it that way also. Handicapping trainer intent requires some human judgement though, I think. I do not think that a program can do quite as good a job.

[jandrus]

I see a lot of posts from this guy jaguar. who is this guy. he acts like a guru of handicapping.

[Jaguar]

Tom, you are an experienced handicapper. But, there are many people who are newcomers to horse racing. While some of these folks are members of PA, many more are interested lurkers.

This game is very difficult for newbies because there is no central authority to which they can refer for guidance.

It seems incumbent upon those of us who have been in the game for many years to extend the hand of welcome to nascent handicappers.

Things would have been much easier for me 22 years ago when I first got involved in handicapping if I had known where to go for advice.

Consider the complexity of horse racing, the plethora of types of races, the inherent unpredictability of many races, and the wide range of handicapping methodologies. A newcomer is really at sea. In fact, many old-timers aren't always certain as to which races to play and which races to leave alone.

Of course, experienced players favor handicapping methods which are congenial to their needs. I know quite a few speed and pace guys who wouldn't dream of changing their methods, and some of these folks are very successful.

But, regarding software, it must be said that the 3 strongest programs on the market make killer models and earn magnificent ROI's for their users.

I own 2 diskette boxes which are mostly filled with speed and pace discs- and a few of these programs are excellent insofar as they go- but I don't use them anymore.

I can't imagine any handicapper that is new to the game who would not want to seek out the strongest, most comprehensive,
state of the art software available. Horse racing is a game of patterns and statistical models reveal those patterns, telling us when to jump in and when to go to the concession stand. Vital information for newcomers.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[Jaguar]

JANDRUS, Truck- good to hear from you, long time no see. By the way, I just got word that some guys are setting the filters in TB5 at 4-1 and 5-1 and getting zilch at certain tracks- while killing other ovals.

I figured out why. At some tracks the discernible patterns made by key trainers- particularly at some of the bullrings, but not exclusively at the cheap tracks- are somewhat masked by the mutuels.

To put it another way, at a joint like Fairgrounds, for example, the trainer might be trying- which will be reflected in the pools- but if the software's filters are set too high- the program won't be able to make meaningful sense of the horses' past performances.


This is because these conditioners are not dropping monsters into weak fields. Competitors, yes, but not big, obvious class drops and turn backs.

If these TB5 users drop the filters to, say 2-1, I believe that the guys will start grabbing all kinds of mutuels, including exotics.

Heard any scuttlebut about the Magic update? You always know what's going on. Let me know, King Of The Racing Form Handicappers.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[DJofSD]

In the spirit of Doc -

"When I see a trainer (origianlly jockey) carry a horse across the finish line...."

DJofSD

[LOU M.]

So some trainers win more than other trainers because the horses get together in the barn and decide to win one for the"kipper"?:D

[Handle]

Jaguar,

You write eloquently and, from that writing, it is obvious that you are passionate about your opinions in regards to handicapping, and especially handicapping software.

Despite this, the logic within your post here is wholly inconsistent with what you purport to offer -- a helping hand to the "nascent handicapper".


Here, in this thread, you've conveniently separated handicapping methodology from handicapping software. You wrote to the effect that you believed/knew that one can make money/be successful as a pace/speed handicapper. It just takes "experience", according to you (if I understand correctly, of course). OK, well, one could assume then that if a "newbie" started out learning pace and speed that they would acquire experience. In fact, one could say that anyone lacking experience using any particular handicapping strategy would fair worse than someone with experience, provided the strategy had merit. Since you said that pace/speed strategies have merit, your position makes little sense. If pace/speed handicapping can be used effectively, then why on earth wouldn't a suitable computer program that aided one in doing pace/speed handicapping be an effective tool? If pace/speed handicapping could be effective with experience, why on earth wouldn't someone not be able to "become experienced" as a pace/speed handicapper and then make money? You address TOM as if he were a relic, enchanted with some magic aura that he gained "way back when", which can't be achieved any more.

You say, or rather, you invoke the muse to say it for you ("IT MUST BE SAID") -- "that the 3 strongest programs on the market make killer models and earn magnificent ROI's for their users." This is BULLSHIT and it is what provoked my response here. If you're so willing to help the "nascent handicapper", how about not feeding them a line of bull? No programs "earn magnificent ROI's for their users". If they do, just have the developers/sellers of those programs come right on this thread and say "My program will EARN YOU A MAGNIFICENT ROI" -- no strings attached since you aren't attaching any in your post (you wouldn't want to scare off those nascent handicappers now would you?) Perhaps here you are trying to imply that one can take this modelling/profiling/ai driven handicapping and be successful with it SANS experience (whereas one must be an ancient Magi of the Craft to do the same with pace/speed). Doubt it.

Lastly, I can think of more than a few reasons why a handicapper, especially one new to this game, would not want to seek out the software you describe. How about cost? Last I looked when people start out doing something they don't jump in with the most expensive thing they can find (and please dont' resort to "xyz is FREE" when the data files cost over $100 beans/month, ok). How about the level of involvement the person wants to put into the game? It takes longer to learn more complex software, and more time to maintain it.

-Nathan

[Jaguar]

Nathan, during the past year I have received many PM's and e-mails from newcomers to horse handicapping seeking advice. I assume other veteran handicappers who post on PA have received similar appeals for help.

One uniform theme in the messages which I have received is that the newby is looking for the best horse handicapping software.

In my response to these folks I always try to emphasize that they should try to use the best modeling programs available, so that the handicapper will have a profile of the tracks they play and so that the bettor will know when to open his wallet and when to stay in his seat.

New handicappers invariably tell me, "I am not looking for alot of action, I just want to win". So, they are looking for a methodology which will screen the card, downplay the chaos races, and point them toward the strong animals which are dropping into a weak field. In other words, they just want to cash a ticket.

Many veteran handicappers, on the other hand, are not looking for a mortal lock. They are looking for a nice fat overlay. Still, even the greybeard thoroughbred junkies like me, want the best tools available.

Another factor which the inquiring new handicappers stress in their messages to me is that they don't have alot of time. Usually they are week-end bettors looking for the best plays(i.e. winners).

Today 2 of the best handicapping programs out there are fast, and easy to use and understand- ideal for the "non-programmer"
with very little time available for handicapping.

Speaking of horse programs, I like the color highlighting which is a new feature in Equisim. Catches the eye and saves time.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Jaguar
Speaking of horse programs, I like the color highlighting which is a new feature in Equisim. Catches the eye and saves time.
Jaguar

Your welcome.............>>>>>Nathan will get it.......

I have a question JAG.......how many new cappers exactly are IM'ing you or emailing you for advice........? and, are any willing to post here and tell us about their experience after you spoke with them.......... I am not trying to bust your balls or anything......but if you are teaching......... how is it working out?

[Handle]

Jaguar,

As I said, its obvious how passionate, and nowledgeable you are, in regards to handicapping software. I, for one, appreciate that. But your bias is obvious (at least, to the experienced....) as well. Since I too deal with my fair share (and, it would seem, half of China's fair share, of newcomers to handicapping software), my position is only that you do new comers a huge disservice by telling them that _any_ handicapping software is going to earn money for them, let alone "magnificent rois". The best thing to tell a Newbie is:

A) How to have fun playing the horses. How to find what makes it interesting, how to get involved in handicapping, and, if software is the question, how software can help/extend that.

B) Help them set realistic expectations. "Magnificent ROIs" ain't a realistic expectation for most, ESPECIALLY if they are new.

In regards to your choice of handicapping strategy -- you're entitled to your opinion, I just would find it more appropriate (to a newbie) if it was mixed with a bit more understanding of the fact that different people will have differing success, as well as enjoyment, with different strategies.

Thanks for the feedback re: EquiSim. The new version (v4) is nearly ready, and it does dramatically extend its "modelling" and "connection" capabilities. While I think I can predict what your overall impression of this new version will be (or is?), perhaps, if you had time, you might offer some feedback on the new "modelling/profiling" capabilities when the new demo becomes available.

Best,
-N

[CapperLou]

WOW!!!

You guys are going at each other a bit. I think the posts have been good though. There is something for everybody out there--depends what a newcomer is looking for and what a veteran or professional desires and what each wants to pay for the downloads and the software if there is a charge for it.

I have been a handicapper from the form for many years until almost three years ago when I found I could get what I do at a few tracks on a disk--a program was written for it--I bought it and use it today at certain tracks. It is not a black box--there are none and there is no such thing as a program that will automatically give you a positive ROI.
It takes a lot of knowledge and hard work and money if doing it real time (as Steve Fierro suggests) to become profitable. There are no magic answers to anything in this game.

Now; I will tell you that Jaguar has been very helpful to me since I joined this board in pointing out some sophisticated programs that are available.
He has spoke highly of; to name a few---RaceCom, TB5, Equisim, Fastcapper, Netcapper, HTR, HSH.

Jag has mentioned to me over time that each of these programs have a lot of merit and I have looked into some of them and can tell you that those above are very sophisticated, have a lot of great info in them--they should be used as a toolbox--and will help you become a winner once you know enough about how to use them.

But, again---there is no magic bullet. One has to know something about pace handicapping and speed handicapping and how to read a form and trainer angles etc. etc. in order to see what jumps out in a race in any of these programs.

Newcomers do not (IMO) know enough about handicapping to use these highly sophisticated programs and the cost involved therein.

There is a lot of luck involved in this game no matter what you may think--some months can be hot and some cold. I could not lose in August & September with one of the above programs, but got a haircut in October at Belmont & Keeneland. That is the way this game is--you have to "stay the course."

In closing, I would tell any new purchaser of software to contact the provider one is interested in and get a free trail period or some kind of guarantee for at least 30 days for refund.
All of us are different and there is something for everyone out there that will work for him/her.

It's just like choosing between a Mercedes, BMW, Lexus!!!
My choice is right and the next guy who picks the Beamer is right too.

All the best,

CapperLou

P.S. I've never met Jaguar personally, but he has been very helpful to me over time!!!

[modred]

I wish more people of Handle and Jaguar's ability in handicapping would go at each other in such a fashion .... one might learn a lot.

Thanks guys

[Jaguar]

JustRalph, surveying the aged codgers who populate OTB, I figured that handicapping was dying out and that soon a handful of us oldsters would be sitting around regaling each other with tales of quinielas won at Lincoln Downs in 1968.

To my surprise, the reach of the PA board is such that there are not just a few- but many- lurkers out there. I suppose the reason they don't join up and post is that they lack self-confidence and that they are also afraid of being flamed by some of the more volatile personalities on the board.

Last spring I was just getting a trickle of inquiries about horse handicapping. Today I'm getting 3 per week, and it shows no sign of slowing down.

In my responses to these questioners, I try to help clarify their thinking about what their needs, goals, and expectations are from the horse game. I also try to point out desirable aspects of different handicapping software, so that the newbie can understand the technical approach various developers take.

By this I mean that some programmers approach the puzzle from the standpoint of pace and speed, whereas other developers use a comprehensive "shotgun" approach- throwing a bunch of algorithms at the past performances- and modeling the results.

Between measuring a horse's expended energy through the use of differential calculus, employing linear regression, using expert systems, or making models by true artificial intelligence, there is a rich smorgasboard of handicapping programs available. Something for everyone.

It's a normal human instinct to strive for the best. But, Americans interpret "the best" as meaning the fastest, most powerful and accurate horse program on the market.

There are some really good speed and pace discs out there which are priced very affordably. Sadly, for many of us, the big, comprehensive Battleship programs which generate superb models do cost money- which seems to fit in with the economic rule that the best technology is expensive.

I am glad to say that the guys who do contact me to ask questions about handicapping seem to be be decent people, and they always thank me for sharing info with them.

As to the question of what these newcomers wind up doing about the racing game, I surmise that a few never bet on horses. Some speed guys likely turn to a "pure pace and speed" product such as SnapCapper Pro.

While most guys probably go with a program on the order of Equisim or Netcapper, which- while being speed and pace based- are intelligently balanced and enhanced with a broad spectrum of analytic techniques.

I suspect that not too many folks spring for the mortgage busters-the fiercely expensive handicapping programs- some of which entail data costs exceeding Britney Spears' annual spending at Victoria's Secret.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[Jaguar]

Nathan, I can tell you that the guys at OTB are salivating- anticipating the new upgrade to Equisim. The buzz has been that strong.

The first handicapper to have Version 4 on his laptop screen will not be able to get out of his seat. He'll be surrounded by jealous enthusiasts yelling, "What's it like in the 4th at Aqueduct?'

Not to mention the inevitable toad-like grifters and cheap Charlies who will suddenly appear, pen and paper in hand- insisting "Give me the computer picks!"

Everyone is looking forward to actually seeing the ouput in front of them. We're more excited than a group of teenage boys who find out that their substitute teacher is going to be Christina Aguilera.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[Figman]

Are Tom & Jag one and the same????

[brdman12]

I am not a "new" handicapper. I still use the racing form. I hit the track once or twice a week. Sometimes less. I feel like a new handicapper reading PA. I am not a software user, don't intend to be. But maybe i am missing the boat. We'll see. One thing I do know...I do not have the level of sophistication or the intricate approach many in here do have. AND that is why I so much enjoy the exchanges and differing viepoints presented here. For the most part they are positive and unselfish. Thanks again. This has been a good thred to read.

[Tom]

Originally posted by Figman
Are Tom & Jag one and the same????

No, I am only Tom and Gangbuster :D