PaceAdvantage HOY Format Discussion

[Jay Trotter]

As per a previous poll, the idea of creating a PaceAdvantage Handicapper of the Year Contest is in the works. Responses have been overwhelmingly favorable in support of such an event. If the idea goes forward it would begin in January 2012.

In a nutshell, the HOY Contest would be the melding of existing PA Contests and the inclusion of some newly created contests. Hopefully, we can develop a wide cross-section of contests that would be representitive of "real life" handicapping/wagering methods.

The HOY winner would likely be a well rounded handicapper capable of successful playing a variety of formats. The most likely scenario would award points in each seperate event based on participation levels -- the more players in a particular event, the more available points towards the HOY title.

A second likely aspect would be to only use a players top number events (ie. top 5 events) as the measuring stick. This would allow players to skip events if they wish and/or drop the point totals from events they performed poorly in. (ie. Use a player's top 5 of 9 scheduled events)

Individuals would also be encouraged to step up and host an event as part of the HOY Series. They would be the moderator and scorer for that particular event and hopefully bring in a Title Sponsor for their event. Support would be provided as necessary.


Possible PA HOY Formats:

1) Team Events - like the P.A.I.H.L.
2) Win/Place/Show style events
3) Exotic Wagering events
4) Pick 4 Contest - Ridersup Memorial Contest
5) Match Play Event - Players would qualify and then be set into brackets
6) Show Survivor style event
7) ROI Event
8) Parlay Challenge - like the Ultimate Parlay Challenge
9) Live Bankroll Wagering event
10) Other Formats - open to suggestions


When voting you may vote for as many formats as you like. This is just a general poll to get a feel for what players would like to see included and what they might not like so much.

If you have "Other Format" ideas please post them. Just remember that for a contest to work it has to be "scoreable", meaning relatively straight forward to score.

Let the discussion begin.


Trotter:ThmbUp:

[Tom]

I said wps type becasue tht would seem to me to make eveyone take a stand on a singel horse and not a shotgun blast. I also suggest that the madatory bets exceed the bankroll, ie, you can go broke. When you have a guarranteed bankrool for every event, you are more likely to swing wild in some of them. If you have the ability to tap out and not get to bet into later races, you probably cut down on luck being a factor. And, you have to make up your losses down the line to stay in it.

That being said, feel free to send the trophy to me this weekend if you want to, one less thing to worry about during Toga month. :cool:

[HUSKER55]

would you like some cheese to go with that wine :D

[Bubbles]

When I ran my BC contests here for a few years in a row, I had success with a pre-set bankroll format. You get X amount of dollars, all wagers must be locked in by the start of the first race of the contest, and whoever hits hardest wins.

That said, I think a match play concept could be pretty fun. There's an element of head-to-head competition that could be really interesting.

[classhandicapper]

This may not suit the style of play of some people, but I think it has to be a WPS type event because exotics require such a large sample to have any meaning, it would render the results of any short contest almost meaningless.

I think it might make sense to track both win% and ROI.

[raybo]

Since this is "Handicapper of the Year", then why even bring wagering into the picture? Why not just offer win only, hit rate only, 1 pick per race, with, say, 2 alternates, to cover scratches (1st alt and 2nd alt), no ROI, no bankroll, minimum number of plays required to qualify for the title. The player that has the highest hit rate, regardless of the price, wins.

Isn't handicapping, first and foremost, about being able to determine the best horse in the race, the most likely winner? After that is determined, then the look for value begins, but that falls under "wagering", not handicapping.

Otherwise, the contest should be renamed "Player of the Year", or something.

I have never been interested in any contest that depends on a player's ability to pick long shots. Show me a guy that can pick lots and lots of winners and I'll pick his brain, if he'll let me. Because if I know his secret for picking winners, I'll also learn how to layoff false low priced horses, and, I'll be able to make huge profits, no matter what wager type I want to play.

You can have a very high hit rate AND a very good long term ROI. Your only wagering decision is to play the most likely winner, or pass the race.

You could of course, as has been suggested, track both hit rate and ROI, both mutually exclusive of one another. You could choose to enter based on hit rate only, ROI only, or both. Declare winners for all 3 formats.

[classhandicapper]

Isn't handicapping, first and foremost, about being able to determine the best horse in the race, the most likely winner? After that is determined, then the look for value begins, but that falls under "wagering", not handicapping.


I thought I was the only one that thought along those lines.

I entered a contest one time and made that same point and everyone looked at me like was a moron.

We all understand that "value" is the key to winning, but a major part of finding real value is actually being able to identify the most likely winner, second most likely winner etc.. and comparing them to the odds. If you don't know who the most likely winner really is, you are going to be making a lot of bets on horses you think are good value that are not.

[raybo]

I thought I was the only one that thought along those lines.

I entered a contest one time and made that same point and everyone looked at me like was a moron.

We all understand that "value" is the key to winning, but a major part of finding real value is actually being able to identify the most likely winner, second most likely winner etc.. and comparing them to the odds. If you don't know who the most likely winner really is, you are going to be making a lot of bets on horses you think are good value that are not.

Well said.

[Bobzilla]

I chose the WPS and ROI contest formats. I would refer to the winner as the PA player of the year rather than handicapper of the year. Good play over the long haul would certainly be indicative of the existance of decent handicapping skills.

Preferences for contest formats seem to vary dramatically from player to player so it's always difficult to arrive at one where everyone is happy. I rather liked the format used this past year for the P.A.I.H.L. contest and would personally enjoy something similar in format. Having only thought about it this morning I'm envisioning something like the following which might reward both consistancy and long-term profit:

1) Contest over an 8 month period. Arbitrary, could be more or less depending on what players wanted.

2) Each month the player will be expected to submit 40 selections. Again, could be more or less but am using 40 as an example.

3) A player can chose to play any thoroughbred race they wish from any track in The U.S. or Canada. The total amount wagered on each event would be $24. Of that amount, $8 would be a mandatory win wager on the "A" selection; $8 would be up to the player's discretion for either wps on the same horse, broken down any way they want, could have a total of $16 to win if the player wanted; and the remaining $8 would be available to the player to decide on exacta plays with the "A" selection always being part of the exacta (1st or 2nd) with a "B" and "C" selection. A "B" and "C" winning combo wouldn't be counted as the "A" would need to be part of the exacta. "D" and "E" selections would be alternates in the event of scratches.

4) Each month a player would start with a fresh bankroll of $720 (30 guaranteed plays). After 30 plays the player can continue on for the remaining 10 as long as they can afford the necessary $24 to make the next selection. The number 30, or $720, is entirely arbitrary and perhaps another potential tap out number would be more appropriate. Hit percentage will be part of the end of contest scoring so avoiding ruination over a month would be important as 40 selections would be expected and if a player couldn't continue after 33 plays then 7 misses would be factored into the final hit percentage figure. Would like a system which ensures conviction as part of the selection process.

5) As with the P.A.I.H.L. weekly scoring, the monthly scoring for this contest would be based on the number of players beaten on winnings.

6) Along with the WPS-Exacta contest would be two contests of which a player would decide between the two. One would be a P4 contest and the other would be a superfecta contest. Over the 8 months a player would submit either 50 superfectas or P4s. Available would be $200 to make the ticket. Additional points could be given to the top finishers at the end of the year. As there would be different numbers of competitors in each event a "beaten players" figure could not be used.

7) End of contest scoring would be based on the following: A) Cumulative monthly points of the monthly WPS-Exacta contest; B) Points earned by number of players beaten over the 8 months in ROI; C) Points earned by number of players beaten over the 8 months in hit percentage; and D) additional points awarded to those who scored hign with the 4 level exotics.

[raybo]

I suggest you keep data costs in mind, when deciding on formats. In the above posting a player could well spend $300-$400 in an 8 month time period, just for data. Not all members here have, or want, an unlimited download data plan.

[thaskalos]

The contest should be renamed "Paceadvantage Horseplayer of the year"...and the objective should be to crown the best PLAYER among us.

What is the best way for a player to prove that he is better than everyone else...without letting the size of his starting bankroll play a role in the decision?

Easy!

You give everyone the same bankroll...tell them how much they can wager per race...and tell them how many races they should bet a week.

You don't tell them what types of wagers to make...or which races to make these wagers on. Selecting the proper playable races, and making the proper bets are important keys to being a knowledgeable player...and this skill should not be taken away from the player.

The players who lose their bankrolls are eliminated...and at the end, the bankrolls decide who the best players are -- just like in real life.

No excuses like..."the contest featured the wrong types of races" or..."I was forced to bet WIN, but I'm not really a WIN-type bettor" or..."I was forced to box the exactas, but that's not my method of play".

Everybody makes the kinds of bets they are comfortable making...while playing the types of races they are familiar with.

Justice for all...

[Jay Trotter]

shameless bump :ThmbUp: