Handicapper Seconditis?

[Hooked on Horses]

I know many horses have seconditis but I think I may have a Handicappers version of this affliction. After a long break of suffering too many 2nd place finishes I decided to return go the game and quickly am off to an 0-4 start, all 2nd place finishes. Place betting offers no value and many of my beats come from rank outsiders so Exacta wagering hasn't been fruitful either. I have tried several methods (pace, speed, class) over the years and primarily have been a Win bettor but am at my wits end with this game. Is there any hope or am I just jinxed? I think I understand the game fairly well but end up close but no cigar way more often than not.
Anyone else suffer from such a disease? Any advice?

[HUSKER55]

welcome to the club.

[thaskalos]

Your affliction is very common, and is the main reason why most people have fled from the win pools...and now find refuge in the exotics.

May I suggest the 10-cent superfecta? :)

[Overlay]

You refer to the horses that beat you as "rank outsiders". Despite the fact that they might not be anyone's top choice to win, might there be the possibility that they could still offer justifiable value as a win wager in light of their odds? Are you considering the chances of every horse in the race from that perspective? A full-field odds-line appraoch could be a way to separate the outsiders that are potentially bettable from those that aren't. (And, as thaskalos mentioned, there are also exotics to consider.)

[classhandicapper]

You are either suffering from a random run of bad luck or you are playing too many deeper closers that making a big run but finishing 2nd sucking up behind horses that had better position.

Most likely, you are just having some bad luck. Hang in there.

[cnollfan]

Four races is not a definitive sample. Your horses are running well. You need more confidence.

[Light]

I decided to return go the game and quickly am off to an 0-4 start, all 2nd place finishes.


Simultaneously do a place parlay and or a round robin place parlay.

[jamey1977]

I know many horses have seconditis but I think I may have a Handicappers version of this affliction. After a long break of suffering too many 2nd place finishes I decided to return go the game and quickly am off to an 0-4 start, all 2nd place finishes. Place betting offers no value and many of my beats come from rank outsiders so Exacta wagering hasn't been fruitful either. I have tried several methods (pace, speed, class) over the years and primarily have been a Win bettor but am at my wits end with this game. Is there any hope or am I just jinxed? I think I understand the game fairly well but end up close but no cigar way more often than not.
Anyone else suffer from such a disease? Any advice?
I got so sick of losing. That I looked into, why a horse lost. Check and see if your horses are 0 for 8 or 1 for 11. If a horse is one of these. I Disqualify, the chokers.

[Robert Goren]

I have found out when you are in one those streaks that if you start betting place, then the horses start running third. You might think about taking a couple of weeks off just to get your head straight. It is like playing golf, the more you try to correct a problem the worse it gets and pretty soon you so screwed up that you couldn't hit a ball straight or even make a foot and half putt if your life depended on it.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Simultaneously do a place parlay and or a round robin place parlay.

Light..your suggestion is great advice imo. I have played these three horse round robin place parlays with some of my win wagers with great success. It's a good feeling as (1) I am sticking to my win only plan which has been profitable in the long-term (despite the seconditus), which is inevitable (2) I am showing a profit with the parlays which breaks up the losing periods of play.

[Robert Fischer]

oops passed out and then accidentally deleted the longer, nicer version. (true story)

start evaluating the races based on

HORSE PERFORMANCE
ESTIMATED PROBABILITY
ODDS ON THE TOTE
"2ND" (or first) should come to mean a lot less than the performance of the horse.

also try to avoid the qualifications like "place has no value" "exactas are worthless due to longshots" etc...

hope this makes a little sense, the other post was a dandy... i'm a mess!:mad::bang::)

[HUSKER55]

THE WEEKEND WILL DO THAT TO YA:D

[DJofSD]

I have found out when you are in one those streaks that if you start betting place, then the horses start running third. You might think about taking a couple of weeks off just to get your head straight. It is like playing golf, the more you try to correct a problem the worse it gets and pretty soon you so screwed up that you couldn't hit a ball straight or even make a foot and half putt if your life depended on it.
I agree, think about the minor pools.

And if your confidence is so wounded, again, follow RG's advice. Take a break. It is the pause that refreshes and lends perspective.

And, like a problem with a golf swing, you always should go back to the fundamentals. With golf, that is looking at the things before you even swing the club: grip, posture, address, stance. What are the fundamentals of your style of handicapping and wagering? Figure those out and focus on those.

[Hooked on Horses]

Round Robin Place Parlay? Can you explain? Thanks

[Hooked on Horses]

I have found out when you are in one those streaks that if you start betting place, then the horses start running third. You might think about taking a couple of weeks off just to get your head straight. It is like playing golf, the more you try to correct a problem the worse it gets and pretty soon you so screwed up that you couldn't hit a ball straight or even make a foot and half putt if your life depended on it.

I was probably mostly just venting here because this was upon return from a short break-more of the same-its almost has become a joke (bad one). Actually ended up 0-8 with 7 place finishes! Haven't been able to nail down a pattern yet since losses range from logicals getting nailed on the wire by 20+ to 1 shots to the other way around (and everywhere in between). Faltering speed and closers running out real estate, you name it. I'm sure it will pass but wow its frustrating.
Thanks all for the support!

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Round Robin Place Parlay? Can you explain? Thanks

A round robin place parlay using three horses .we'll call each leg A B and C

In the first leg Bet for example $20 to place on your selection If it wins devide the return and make equal bets on legs B and C. Also start leg B with half the base bet of A $10 to parlay if B wins on leg C in addition to the original half of the return from A

For example
A paid $5.00 return $50 wager $25 to place on legs B and C plus an additional $10 from parlay B to C if B pays $4.00 the return from the $10 wager is $20 and that goes on the leg C in addition to the original $25 from the A return.

These can quickly build up. If A loses you do the $10 parlay B to C.

[BlueShoe]

Anyone else suffer from such a disease?
You have a kindred soul right here. My seconditis streak has lasted for 30 years, not just a few weeks. There is no logical explanation, unless I start believing in hexes and curses. While I do not have the required math skills, I am roughly familiar with standard deviation, probability theory, and streak probability. On several occasions in recent years have gotten as many as 6 or 7 seconds in a row. That is not 6 or 7 for the day, it means consecutive wagers in which my selection finished second.:bang: Have never gotten 6 winners in a row in my life. My track pals concede that they have never seen any player get as many seconds as I do. A couple of them will sometimes key my top selection in the second spot under two or three other horses, and so on. That is the bad part, now for the other side of the coin. I am a good handicapper that selects horses that usually run well, live ones. I tend to play speed types. Often these type of plays duel or set the pace only to get nailed in the last strides in a frustrating photo finish loss. Lots of seconds and thirds playing fading front runners. Long priced horses run second more often than they will win, this is a mathamatical given, and often my selections are good priced. Finally, and most important of all, is the human element. We tend to dwell on those agonizing nose loses while forgetting about the nose bobs that went our way. Perhaps we actually do not get quite as many seconds as we think, because we view the times we do win as the normal scheme of things. But boy or boy, on days when those seconds pile up and send you home muttering to yourself, you do wonder.:confused: :bang:

[Light]

Actually ended up 0-8 with 7 place finishes!

I think we're all envious. You don't realize how good that is. You can be using these horses as "keys" in exactas or any other exotic bets.

To expand on "round robins",you can do them for any number of predetermined races. For example if you did an 8 race place round robin, and had 7 winners,you'd be riding high. A straight 8 race place parlay would be dead.You determine the cost of a round robin by subtracting 1 from the number of races to be played. In this case it would be 8x7=$56,based on a $2 unit.

So you have races a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h. Your first play is race "a" parlayed to races b,c,d,e,f,g,h. That would cost you $14. What you are doing is betting seven $2 wagers to parlay to the seven legs in your series.Your bet is $14 to place. Lets say you win.If the place payoff was $5,you now have seven $5 tickets riding to all the other legs in your series.

Leg "b" is next. You parlay leg "b" to legs c,d,e,f,g,h. That cost is $12. BUT,you also parlay leg "a" ($5) to leg "b". Lets say you win again with leg "b" paying $5 to place. You now pocket the "a to b" parlay of $12.50 return.

When leg "c" comes up,you parlay it to d,e,f,g,h,costing $10. But you also parlay "a to c"($5)and "b to c"($5). And so forth in the remaining legs. You do not parlay a completed parlay such as the "a to b" $12.50 that was completed. Once a 2 horse parlay is completed successfully ,it goes in your pocket.

Lets assume you lost the last leg for simplicity of explanation. If you won 7 of 8, you would have leg "a" cashing 6 times @$12.50. Leg "b" would cash 5 times @$12.50. Leg "c" would cash 4 times @ $12.50.Leg "d" 3 times,Leg "e" 2 times and leg "f" one time.

Your investment was $56 and your return is $262.50.

Of course a straight parlay dwarfs round robins in payoff's,but they are at a much higher risk. Round robins will give you something back if your handicapping is worth the price of salt and can easily turn a profit. And when you are having psychological ramifications from things like "seconditis", round robins can reinforce your good play by keeping you in the black.

That's my Dr Drew imitation on horse racing .

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Light,

I can remember a few times at Saratoga when the days races were highly competitive with large fields. I settled in on my three or four key selections and made the place and/or combination show round robins and made a huge ROI profit..it can most definately take the edge off the losing advantage value win play. As a matter of fact during this time I also played my value win wagers in addition to the parlay. It was most satisfying to make a nice profit on the day.

[Laplace]

Congratulations!!!
You are now beating the toteboard......

So, are you looking to beat the races????

Mike

[trying2win]

Hooked On Horses:

Those were very apt comments of Husker55's..."Welcome to the club", and also Thaskalos's of..."Your affliction is very common". Great post by Blueshoe as well on this topic of SECONDITIS.

I've been playing the horse races for about 50 years now, and I'm all-too-familiar with the SECONDITIS affliction. When one of those scenarios happens in a series of bets when you're betting to win only, there is the temptation to switch to betting to place only. In my experience, what usually happens is that the very next day when betting to 'place only', is that the horses start frequently finishing either 1st or 3rd. I call that happening one of the 'MYSTERIES OF THE RACETRACK'. The getting 'GETTING CAUGHT IN THE SWITCHES', results in leading to more frustration. The big question is how to change the outcome. Like some have suggested, maybe the place parlay might be the answer, although I don't remember for certain on trying that method of betting.

I think I recall some handicapping authors suggesting bet either win only, or place only, but not a win-place bet. My preference is win only, but there is nothing wrong with betting place only, or a win-place strategy as long as it's a consistent method of play. We all have our comfort zone in the betting area of playing the races, so I don't think there if no one 'right' answer. Win only in the long run, will usually perform better ROI wise than place only, so it's up to each individual on how to bet.

There has also been some wise advice bandied about in the past in how to deal with losing streaks of various sorts, such as reducing the amount bet per race, or stop betting altogether and take a break from wagering on the races for awhile.

T2W

[Light]

If, (as a couple of people here have suggested),you start betting to place and your horses start running 3rd,then your evaluation of your own skills is flawed or inconclusive. You have nothing to fret about regarding seconditis because it's more likely attributable to a streak or an illusion. As someone noted earlier, the sample size presented here is way too small to consider yourself proficient or incompetent.