predicting stamina

[kenwoodallpromos]

What is the best data source for predicting current horse stamina? I think there has to something more reliable than my general handicapping!

[Tom]

Mike Helm has a sire rating in his book Sir Ratings that attempts to predict how far a horse will go based on his breeding (the horse's breeding, not Mike's). ;)

[Larry Hamilton]

Define "stamina" and tell me how you would measure it if you had access to all the data in the world. Also, what is the unit of measure? If you can answer all that, we can calculate it.

[kenwoodallpromos]

For this thread i will define stamina as the current 7f or longer race ability of a horse in position relative to the leader between the 1/4 pole and finish. I assume factors involved would be maximum distance in contention when considering= Conformation and breeding / Whether horse is in peak condition / speed of track during last racecard at current track condition / Trainer's win % at exact distance. // Unit of measure is 1/5 second. Thank You!!

[Larry Hamilton]

too much art and not enough numbers. I cant do it with what you provided.

[kenwoodallpromos]

That may be the best answer?!

[thoroughbred]

Getting a handle on stamina is one of the areas that I worked on for a long time and incorporated what I came up with into the program I wrote.

Here's the gist: First of all, from some engineering analysis, I came up with the concept of horse "friction." It is a measure of a horse's ability to last, come from behind, etc.

Then I use Early Speed. I calculate the early speed at the beginning of the race. (Different from the usual average speed to the first call, etc.)

Now, here's how I use those two values, "friction" and "early speed" to obtain a horse's present stamina.

The reasoning goes like this:

A horse with particular capability, may be able to trade off early speed with rating, (coming from behind). When a horse's capability remains constant, then if early speed is increased, lasting power suffers. And vice versa, If early speed is decreased, then lasting power, (measured by "friction"), increases.

This would be difficult to see in the old days, but now, with the availability of computers, it's easy once the equations are in place.

One example, which doesn't occur too often may make the point clearer. When I see it, I bet with more confidence.

If you find that a horse, from race to race is improving in BOTH, early speed, and friction, then it's clear that the horse is being trained well and his stamina is improving. In other words, the horse can go faster at the start AND last longer.

[takeout]

"Bettors hurt by secret positives"
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/commentary/commentary.asp#viewpoints

[Jaguar]

Ken, you might find that Dan Pope's excellent "Stretch Run" formula is useful, particularly when used in conjunction with his quick and easy correction for the Beyer numbers.

Robert Sinn's "F. I. G.'s Formula" is a quick, easy, and accurate way of measuring a horse's expended energy at different distances.

All The Best,

Jaguar