View Full Version : FORMULA'S TOTE BOARD ANALYSIS PLAYS JULY 1
formula_2002
07-01-2011, 06:23 AM
HERE ARE THE RULES (UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED)
POSTED PUBLIC'S FAVORITE ARE WIN AND PLACE BETS.
THE PLACE BET IS OVERWEIGHTED BY A FACTOR OF 1.5
POSTED PUBLIC'S SECOND CHOICES IN THE BETTING ARE WIN BETS ONLY.
IT'S EXPECTED THAT 26% OF THE RACES WILL BE PLAYABLE.
WILL POOL ROI IS EXPECTED TO BE 9% FOR FAVORITES AND 12% FOR 2ND CHOICES.
PLACE POOL ROI FOR FAVORITES IS EXPECTED TO BE 13%.
RECAP FOR THE THREE PREVIOUS THREADS;
115 RACES
201 WIN AND OR PLACE PLAYS
$413 BET
$387.9 RETURNED
6% LOSS
formula_2002
07-01-2011, 08:54 AM
saf arl race 6 #4
formula_2002
07-01-2011, 09:23 AM
SAF Arlington - Race 6
# Win Place Show
9 $7.60 $4.00 $0.00
4 . $3.80 $0.00
10 . $3.60
the 4 ran as a non favorite. i need to investigate the uk place payouts a bit further.
for now I'll consider the uk non fav plays as if they were favorites.
that is the a place bet will be a 1.5 that of a win bet
the bet for this race would have been $2 win, $3 place, giving a return of $5.7
formula_2002
07-01-2011, 11:10 AM
uk doncaster r 5 #5 wp
formula_2002
07-01-2011, 11:25 AM
UK Doncaster - Race 5
# Win Place Show
9 $44.60 $0.00 $0.00
now i'm very confused. the 5 finished 3rd and, based other plays should have collected place money.
the 6 finished 2nd.
where did all the place pool money go?
formula_2002
07-01-2011, 03:08 PM
UK Doncaster - Race 5
# Win Place Show
9 $44.60 $0.00 $0.00
now i'm very confused. the 5 finished 3rd and, based other plays should have collected place money.
the 6 finished 2nd.
where did all the place pool money go?
thats better
UK Doncaster - Race 5
# Win Place Show
9 $44.60 $10.40 $0.00
6 . $2.20 $0.00
5 . $5.00 $0.00
$2 win bet and 3$ place bet returned..$7.50..
formula_2002
07-01-2011, 03:13 PM
mth r6 #3
formula_2002
07-01-2011, 03:25 PM
Monmouth Park - Race 6
# Win Place Show
3 $4.60 $2.60 $2.10
formula_2002
07-01-2011, 03:43 PM
mth r6 #4
that should be the 7th race
formula_2002
07-01-2011, 05:58 PM
cd r3 #6
formula_2002
07-01-2011, 06:06 PM
Churchill Downs - Race 3
# Win Place Show
6 $8.40 $4.60 $4.20
formula_2002
07-01-2011, 06:15 PM
so far
2 uk, non fav ran
$4 win returned 0
$6 place returned $13.2
2 usa fav fan
$4 win ret 4.60
$6 pl ret $3.9
1 usa non fav ran
$2 win returned $8.40
total so far
$22 bet $30.10 returned.
formula_2002
07-01-2011, 06:26 PM
cd r4 #2
formula_2002
07-01-2011, 09:34 PM
mnr r7 #5
formula_2002
07-02-2011, 06:11 AM
saf tuff r1 #8
formula_2002
07-02-2011, 06:30 AM
SAF Turffontein - Race 1
# Win Place Show
6 $58.40 $9.80 $0.00
8 . $2.20
formula_2002
07-02-2011, 06:41 AM
HERE ARE THE RULES (UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED)
POSTED PUBLIC'S FAVORITE ARE WIN AND PLACE BETS.
THE PLACE BET IS OVERWEIGHTED BY A FACTOR OF 1.5
POSTED PUBLIC'S SECOND CHOICES IN THE BETTING ARE WIN BETS ONLY.
IT'S EXPECTED THAT 26% OF THE RACES WILL BE PLAYABLE.
WILL POOL ROI IS EXPECTED TO BE 9% FOR FAVORITES AND 12% FOR 2ND CHOICES.
PLACE POOL ROI FOR FAVORITES IS EXPECTED TO BE 13%.
RECAP FOR THE THREE PREVIOUS THREADS;
115 RACES
201 WIN AND OR PLACE PLAYS
$413 BET
$387.9 RETURNED
6% LOSS
from here on in, all plays are w and p regardless if they are the favorite or non favorite, uk or usa.
formula_2002
07-02-2011, 06:55 AM
saf tuff r2 #2
formula_2002
07-02-2011, 07:42 AM
SAF Turffontein - Race 2
# Win Place Show
2 $3.60 $3.20
formula_2002
07-02-2011, 08:46 AM
SUMMARY THROUGH NOTE 19
2 uk, non fav ran
$4 win returned 0
$6 place returned $13.2
2 uk, fav ran
$4 win returned 3.60
$6 place returned $8.1
3 usa fav fan
$6 win ret 4.60
$9 pl ret $3.9
2 usa non fav ran
$4 win returned $8.40
total so far
$39 bet $41.80 returned
formula_2002
07-02-2011, 06:34 PM
hol r6 #5
formula_2002
07-02-2011, 06:44 PM
Hollywood Park - Race 6
# Win Place Show
1 $4.00 $2.60 $2.20
5 . $3.20 $2.40
that's a $5 bet ,2w 3p, returning $4.80
formula_2002
07-02-2011, 07:21 PM
Pen r4 #11
formula_2002
07-02-2011, 07:23 PM
Pen r4 #11
And 2
formula_2002
07-02-2011, 07:31 PM
Penn National - Race 4
# Win Place Show
11 $9.00 $4.80 $3.20
$10 bet returned $16.20
formula_2002
07-02-2011, 07:46 PM
Hol r8 #5
formula_2002
07-03-2011, 05:47 AM
closing this thread
12 win bets
$24 bet, $25.60 returned
10 place bets
$30 be, 37.20 returned
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