FROMULA'S TOTE BOARD ANALYSIS PLAYS

[formula_2002]

HERE ARE THE RULES (UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED)
POSTED PUBLIC'S FAVORITE ARE WIN AND PLACE BETS.
THE PLACE BET IS OVERWEIGHTED BY A FACTOR OF 1.5

POSTED PUBLIC'S SECOND CHOICES IN THE BETTING ARE WIN BETS ONLY.
IT'S EXPECTED THAT 26% OF THE RACES WILL BE PLAYABLE.

WILL POOL ROI IS EXPECTED TO BE 9% FOR FAVORITES AND 12% FOR 2ND CHOICES.

PLACE POOL ROI FOR FAVORITES IS EXPECTED TO BE 13%.

PIECE OF CAKE!!

[formula_2002]

SAF VALL R1 # 4

[formula_2002]

SAF Vaal - Race 1
# Win Place Show
4 $4.80 $2.20 $0.00

2ND CHOICE WINS

[formula_2002]

uk hamilton r1 #4

[formula_2002]

uk brighton r2 #8 against the fav, this may be >than the 2nd choice ok

[formula_2002]

UK Brighton - Race 2
# Win Place Show
8 $16.00 $4.40 $0.00

how about that.. win bet only

[formula_2002]

uk hamilton r 3 #5

[formula_2002]

UK Hamilton - Race 3
# Win Place Show
7 $9.60 $2.40 $0.00
5 . $4.60 $0.00

the 5 was the fav therefore place bet had a factor of 1.5

[formula_2002]

HERE ARE THE RULES (UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED)
POSTED PUBLIC'S FAVORITE ARE WIN AND PLACE BETS.
THE PLACE BET IS OVERWEIGHTED BY A FACTOR OF 1.5

POSTED PUBLIC'S SECOND CHOICES IN THE BETTING ARE WIN BETS ONLY.
IT'S EXPECTED THAT 26% OF THE RACES WILL BE PLAYABLE.

WILL POOL ROI IS EXPECTED TO BE 9% FOR FAVORITES AND 12% FOR 2ND CHOICES.

PLACE POOL ROI FOR FAVORITES IS EXPECTED TO BE 13%.

PIECE OF CAKE!!

one thing i did want to mention. the posted favorites should win 42% of the time, and pay a place pool price 70% of the time!!

[formula_2002]

parx r1 # 6

[formula_2002]

parx r1 # 6
at 1/5, all the value was sucked out of the play..
it came in 4th

[formula_2002]

flx r1 #1

[formula_2002]

flr r3 #3

[formula_2002]

flx r4 #6

[formula_2002]

parx r6 #8

[formula_2002]

parx race 7 #6

[formula_2002]

flx r5 #4

[formula_2002]

so fav 3 fav bets , $6 win pool bets ret 0
$9 place pool bets ret $6.9

8 2nd choice bets, $16.00 win pool bets returned $20.80
totals $31 bet, $27.70 returned

[formula_2002]

pen r3 #5

[formula_2002]

Penn National - Race 3 Chart
# Win Place Show
5 $5.40 $3.60 $2.60

[formula_2002]

pen r5 #1

[formula_2002]

Penn National - Race 5
# Win Place Show
1 $4.60 $2.80 $2.20
favorite wins

[formula_2002]

mnr r4 1

[formula_2002]

recap through note # 23
4 fav win bets, cost $8, returned $4.60
4 fav place bets, cost $12, returned $11.10

10 non fav win bets, cost $20, returned $26.20

total cost, $40, total returned, $42.90

[formula_2002]

saf durbanville r2 #6

[formula_2002]

SAF Durbanville - Race 5
# Win Place Show
6 $8.20 $3.00 $0.00

ran as the fav

[formula_2002]

saf durbanville r2 #6
that was a race # typo it should have been race 5..race 2 ran some time before posting the note.

[formula_2002]

saf dur race 7 #8

[formula_2002]

apx r5 #5

[formula_2002]

ap r8 #4

[formula_2002]

Indiana r4 #1

[formula_2002]

Ind r6 #5

[formula_2002]

Ind r7 #1

[formula_2002]

Ind r7 #1
Race 7 that is

[formula_2002]

Col dn r7 #6

[formula_2002]

Ind r8 #2

[formula_2002]

Cd r8 8

[formula_2002]

Col dn r9 #3

[formula_2002]

Ind dn r10 #1

[formula_2002]

recap through note # 23
4 fav win bets, cost $8, returned $4.60
4 fav place bets, cost $12, returned $11.10

10 non fav win bets, cost $20, returned $26.20

total cost, $40, total returned, $42.90

recap, note 24 through 39

4 fav win bets, cost $8, returned $8.20
4 fav place bets, cost $12, returned $4.50

7 non fav win bets, cost $14, returned $0

col dn r9 #3 late scratch
total cost, $34, total returned, $12.70

[formula_2002]

SAF VAAL R5 #2

[formula_2002]

SAF VAAL R6 #10

[formula_2002]

SAF Vaal - Race 6
# Win Place Show
10 $16.20 $5.20 $0.00

[formula_2002]

SAF VAAL R7 #5

[formula_2002]

UK VAAL R8 #4

[formula_2002]

UK YARMOUTH R3 #6

[formula_2002]

UK Yarmouth - Race 3
# Win Place Show
6 $11.20 $3.60 $0.00

[formula_2002]

It seems the UK races payout with a place price even though the horse finiishes 3rd.
I have to look into this.

[formula_2002]

cd r 1 #8

[formula_2002]

cd r3 #3

[formula_2002]

cd r5 #9

[PhantomOnTour]

PLACE means 2nd or 3rd in England.
I believe one bet covers them both...ie no show bets, I think.

[formula_2002]

cd r6 #4

[formula_2002]

Bel r8 #9

[formula_2002]

Churchill Downs - Race 1 Chart
# Win Place Show
1 $5.40 $2.80 $2.40
8 . $3.40 $2.40


Belmont - Race 8
# Win Place Show
9 $7.20 $4.40 $3.40

[formula_2002]

Bel r9 #4 and 1 wp

[formula_2002]

Hol r#4 7

[formula_2002]

Meadowlands r1 #2

[formula_2002]

Meadowlands - Race 1
# Win Place Show
2 $7.60 $6.20 $3.00

yep. it works at trotters!!

[formula_2002]

Meadowlands r#7 #3

[formula_2002]

Meadowlands - Race 7
# Win Place Show
6 $20.20 $13.00 $4.80
3 . $2.60 $2.40

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by formula_2002
recap through note # 23
4 fav win bets, cost $8, returned $4.60
4 fav place bets, cost $12, returned $11.10

10 non fav win bets, cost $20, returned $26.20

total cost, $40, total returned, $42.90


recap, note 24 through 39

4 fav win bets, cost $8, returned $8.20
4 fav place bets, cost $12, returned $4.50

7 non fav win bets, cost $14, returned $0

col dn r9 #3 late scratch
total cost, $34, total returned, $12.70
notes 41 to 61

12 non fav bets:
$24 played $42.20 returned

3 fav bets
$6 win pool bets returned )
$9 place pool bets returned $14.50

[formula_2002]

closing out this thread

11 fav win plays:
$22 bet, $12.80 returned

11 fav place plays
$33 bet, $30.10 returned

29 non fav win bets:
$58 bet, $68.40 returned

total bet, $113, total returned,$111.3
a 1 1/2% loss