Getting caught in the betting switches

[trying2win]

-Has anybody else run into some of these kind of scenarios when betting the horse races?:

1. You read in the handicapping books that the only way to bet is to "WIN ONLY". So you try that method at the track. Over several days you only have a few small winners. But, in that period of time, 6 or 7 horses of the horses you had bet, finished 2nd at four-figure place prices. Next comes the "IF ONLY I had bet win and place, or just place alone, I could of been ahead for this period of time." So you switch to PLACE BETS ONLY.

2. What happens in the next week? You examine the 40 bets you made in the week. Six of the winners you had place bets only on, paid win prices of $32.40, $16.20, $25.90. $45.10, $19.70 and $23.40. Not only that, but several times the hot favorite finished second to these longshot winners and you only collected about 1/3 of the win price.

3. Now frustration really sets in...the "SHOULDA, WOULDA, COULDA'S, IF ONLY'S, AND WAS GONNA'S" really take hold of your emotions now.

4. Then you try win and place betting. Then lo and behold, a bunch of horses you bet, then proceed to finish 3rd many times in a week. Then you start to wonder if you're cursed!

5. How do I know these things? Because similar situations to the ones described above, have happened to me in the past. I'm still trying to figure out some better wagering strategies to deal with the ups and downs with the results I get at the track.

6. Even though we all have our favorite kind of bets at the track, I was just wondering what betting strategies that the PA members like to employ at the track. Not only that, but do you fine tune them after getting certain results after a certain period of time?

7. Is the best strategy bet to win only at certain minimum odds, and just hang in there during those long run outs at times? Or just place bets only on longshots? Or bet an equal amount to win and place. Or just bet gimmicks only. Or bet win, and a gimmick with it or ???

--Would be interesting to hear some of your frustration betting stories at the track, along with some successful betting stories as well. Also, if you have some good betting strategies to pass along to me and the rest of the PA members, that would be appreciated too.

Thanks,

Trying2win

[trying2win]

--If I remember correctly, didn't Doc Sartin used to recommend betting two horses to win in a race? Hmmm...I wonder if that would work out better in the long run?

--Trying2win

[BillW]

trying2win,

I think the only way you will get valid answers to your questions is to analyze your own betting records. Other's results will be based on their handicapping style/methods and not produce the same results for you.

Bill

[trying2win]

Bill,

Hey, good ideas there. We're all different in our personalities, handicapping methods etc. Not only that, but some of the betting levels that others may recommend, might be beyond the comfort zone for another handicapper.

Nevertheless, it's still interesting to see what other cappers like to employ in the way of betting strategies.

Thanks,

Trying2win

[Brian Flewwelling]

I have tried several methods and would appreciate feedback on my 'latest' replacement for the WinPlace

If i can find a horse (A) at reasonable odds, say 4-1 or better, with a better chance to win than that, bet win A

There are usually one or two other contenders that the public prefers (B and C), so back the Win A with Exacta B,C/A.

Then getting a little greedy do exacta A/B,C which reinforces the Win earnings, but usually adds nothing to the bottom line that just more to win wouldn't do.

An extension to cover Show: is the Tri B.C/B,C/A, but that hasn't a very good track record for me.

Fleww

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

GOOD MORNING TRYING 2 WIN

WHEN I CAP I COME AWAY WITH FOUR CONTENDERS FOR EACH RACE . WE'LL NAME THEM A B C D

D IS ONLY USED IF THERE IS A SCRATCH

IN EX'S I PLACE A OVER B,C PART WHEEL

I THEN BOXED B-C

IN THE PICK 3 'S IT LOOKS LIKE THIS

BET 1 A /ABC/ABC

BET 2 ABC/A/ABC

BET 3 ABC/ABC/A

BET 4 BC/BC/BC

THIS WORKS FOR ME BUT IT MIGHT NOT WORK FOR YOU

EVERYONE HAS TO DO WHAT IS BEST SUITED FOR THEM

I BELIEVE MONEY MANGEMENT PLAYS A BIG PART IN THIS

SOME BETTOR'S NEED TO HIT A RACE HERE AND THERE TO
KEEP GOING . OTHER HAVE THE FUNDS TO LOSE FOR A FEW DAYS OR WEEKS WITHOUT CHANGING THERE STRATRGIES .

EXAMPLE THE ABOVE PK3 COST $35.00 A POP , IF I LOSE 3 PICK THREE'S IN A ROW IM ALLREADY DOWN $105.00 BUCKS

THEN IT'S TIME TO CHASE THE EX P/W

GOOD LUCK

JIMMY /ILS

[so.cal.fan]

Wow,
this is the $64K question.

I just bet to WIN...........whatever cycle comes up, I deal with it.
I used to agonize over these switches for years, finally just decided to bet to WIN......and let the chips fall.

I recall a Del Mar meet many years ago, I was betting to WIN.....I had 16 bets for the entire meet, and none of them won, however 9 of them placed, a few at very big prices.
Had it not been for my family, I really think I may have just jumped in the Pacific Ocean! LOL
I proceeded to "switch" to win and place......and of course you all know what happened.......I had several winners that would have gotten me even and ahead the rest of the fall and winter!
Damned if you do, damned if you don't........must have been coined by a horseplayer!

[trying2win]

Irishladstable & So. Cal. Fan.,

--Thanks for the feedback as well. I guess I forget sometimes, that I'm not the only one that goes through losing streaks here and there.

--Good review of betting views and methods so far...i.e. things such as in areas of

1. Examining one's own temperament in regards to winning and losing streaks.

2. Examining one's own betting records.

3. In addition to the win bet, try adding an exactor as your place bet. That way if the exactor wins you've maximized your profits.

4. When betting win 3's, if you like 3 horses in each leg, don't just bet the 3 horses in each leg on $1 tickets for 27 different combinations. I've read a strategy of betting win 3's, similar to what Irishladstable mentioned. That is arranging your pick 3's, let's say with $27 of $1 tickets. A bettor might put 2 different horses on each line...then key another horse in the 1st leg with a couple in the other 2 legs. Or additional combinations, so the net effect is you use the $27 more efficiently and have maybe several combinations 3 times, 2 times and the remainder just single combinations.

5. Good reminder from So. Cal. Fan. to decide on a betting strategy and stick with it. This is probably a good decision if it's based on your long term results and experience.

--I'm surprised Tom hasn't responded yet, with reminding us to keep our sense of humor during a losing streak!

Good luck at the races,

Trying2win

[JohnGalt1]

I too have wrestled with the how to bet my picks question.

I first theoretically decided how best to bet $40. Let's say the winner paid $12-5.00-3.4. in an 11 horse field. I wanted to maximize my return and minimize my downside. I came up with 3 scenarios.

1) If I bet $40 to win I get $240 and nothing for 2nd or worse.

2) If I bet $20 WP I get $170 if it wins or $50 if it finishes 2nd, or nothing.

3) But if I bet $30 (75%) to win and a $1 exacta (25%) all with my horse, I get $180 if it wins and a one dollar exacta if second that would pay between $25-200 realistically. Favorite in 11 horse race over 5-1 I conjecture would not pay much less than $25.

One time I made a similar bet at Santa Anita. $60 to win on a 2-1 horse that was passed in the stretch by a 70-1. My $2 excacta paid $520.

If I believe two horses can win I bet both either equally or 60%-40% if I like one slightly more.

I am a firm believer in win betting and am now using a modified example of the third example above. The book "Wire 'em and Win" by Denny L. Broder explains an interesting way to bet. It's not a handicapping book.

Basically he stresses betting your top choice to win and by using your contenders in exacta boxes or quinellas with your top choice.

What I'm doing now in some races is betting my top choice $20 with $5 ex box with AB and $4 ex box with AC -- total bet $38. I now can get a nice win and a nice exacta, or a nice exacta But sometimes I've bet $10 to win on two horses, then boxed ABC. I also use other slight variations.

I'm interested to see how any of you would bet $40 in a race.

[trying2win]

Jgalt1,

--Welcome to the board. Interesting wagering strategies you put forth.

--This is a great place to learn great handicapping and betting ideas, that you probably won't find in some handicapping books.

--Just thought about that reminder about examining one's own betting records again. That review would not only be a lesson in what TYPES OF BETS are your strengths and weaknesses, but to see what TYPES OF RACES you do well at.

--I guess then, once you find out in what TYPE OF RACES are your strengths, then maximize your opportunties in those kind of races with your betting strategies.

--I know I'm strong in turf races, but I confess I've been kidding myself too long about my weaknesses in other types of races. Time for a in-depth review my betting records (Thanks again to that reminder by BillW).

Good luck at the races,

Trying2win

[Jaguar]

Trying2Win, simple answer:

1. Bet to Win, at even money or above. Never bet below even money. Bet only to win. After you get way ahead, you can use some of your profits to play the exotics.

2. Bet with your daily win goal in mind.

3. When you reach your win goal for that day, quit.

4. If, during the day, you lose 1/2 of your bankroll for that day, quit.

5. Never carry losses forward. The next day you begin with a new daily bankroll and a new win goal.

Never abandon the basic principles of money management. 75% of this game is money management. Racing is a business masquerading as a game. The bettor enters a money marketplace when he or she opens their wallet.

Suckers chase their losses for a while, many eventually giving up the game. Winners go to dinner.

I experienced plenty of losses in this game, starting out years ago. I bet like a chump, plenty of exotics- compulsively chasing the action. Then I smartened up.

Now I won't bet unless the software estimates the race as having a minimum consistency of 72%.

Winning breeds confidence and sound decision-making. Losing destroys your bankroll and your confidence. Eliminate as many losers as you possibly can.

Use software which has a betting record module in it. Meticulously record your bets, this keeps you on track in terms of money management and does not allow your mind or your emotions to play tricks on you.

As the well-known gambling author- and a very successful gambler himself- John Patrick- says in one of his books "What makes this game so tough is that you have to win".

By that statement, of course, John Patrick is saying that you must have a fierce desire to win money and an intolerance of losing.

So, the bettor must be highly selective in choosing the races to bet on and the bettor must also be smart in terms of money management- a demanding set of requirements.

Requirements which ensure success.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[trying2win]

Jaguar,

--Thanks for your comments. You've listed a lot of sage advice and good reminders for all us bettors.

--The only one I differ on, is the advice to bet to win at even money or higher. That minimum is a bit too low for my liking, but if it works well for you and other bettors, I say go for it.

Cheerio,

Trying2win

[kenwoodallpromos]

I like Jaguar's advice. I will add- Either practice on paper until you develop a system that profits without long streaks, or bet race by race only when you prove an overlay to yourself. My Track speed predictions allow me to select the racedays and alter my bets according to track conditions. Some people do not want to hear my betting results so email me for more info!

[JohnGalt1]

trying2win--thanks for the welcome.

This is the only handicapping forum that I'm aware of where people actually contribute.

You replied that having records of how my betting actually performed and in waht types of races would be beneficial. Joe Takach in one of his recent columns, (check his website) stressed that point.

So a few weeks ago I took out all my records for 2001 and charted the bets I actually made, mistakes and all.

Some races I bet one horse but probably half the time I bet two.

I lost $2551 that year.

Total Win bets 262
Winners 130
49%

I broke it down into categories, i.e claiming sprints, turf alw, etc., but I won't bore you with those. My highest win percentage was 62% on 21 dirt stakes and lowest was 33% on 6 turf sprints and 6 md sp routes.

The money won/ lost was more puzzling.

Win -1231.80
Trifecta 856.60
Superfecta -1982.60
DD 113.40 (0nly 5 bets)
Pick 3 -577.90
Pick 4 4172.10
Pick 6 -2848.00 (I have won 4)

I asked myself--How could I win such a high % of win bets and lose money betting win? A-short priced horses too often especially when betting more than one.

Exotics are my--I thought--normal downfall, so why could I make money on pick 4's and lose on pick 3's? And win on tri's and lose supers?

I haven't charted 2002 yet.

This exersize has made me more aware evertime I make a wager knowing that I will be putting it on a future chart.

If any of you have betting records, try it for yourself.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Interesting betting profile! I am a novice at analzing betting records, especially without the ROI's. / Wild guessing I say you are a better handicapper than you were a bet manager in 2001! Pick 4 may payoff much better than pick 3's. Looks like pick 4 is the only type bet you won big at, depending on your tri ROI. / You must know that win bets at 1.5 per race if bet on favs at say 37% potential would make about 49% wins. Your win payoffs would be close to the norm foe favs which would produce loses of I think about 10 to 15%. If you were an average win bettor in 2001 that may explain that part of the record. / Superfectas- Personally I do not like to bet exotics as my ROI for selective win and show is fine with simple handicapping. But I do not understand why people bet on 4th place!!

[justin]

Also agree that keeping records is absolutely crucial. I got in a real funk after the Derby. Even when I picked a nice winner I still found a way to screw it up by either not betting enough or playing multi-race bets and not hitting all legs. I took a long hard look at what I was doing and started to try to remedy the situation. Of course, at the time, my record keeping was very lax and I didn't have a lot to go on at the start. I just knew something had to change.

In the 3 months since I've been keeping detailed records, my bottom line has improved tremendously. I use the odds line templates from Steve Fierro's latest book, create my own odds line, and take it from there. No more handicapping a race at the last minute. No more waffling on which horses I like. Each contender is ranked and assigned odds. Most of the time I'll take the highest ranked overlay unless someone else is a big overlay compared to my line. Most of the time being the key word...I did fail to bet Cajun Beat flat despite having him WAY lower than the tote (I'm still human :>). After a few months of making lines, keeping records, and tracking different ways to bet my picks, I was able to come up with a style of betting that suits my handicapping and consistently shows a nice profit.

I realize this may prove to be unprofitable in the long run but that's why I'm taking the extra time to keep meticulous records. So far, so good. It's certainly important to be able to handicap the horses but it's just as important to be able to handicap yourself.

-Justin

[dav4463]

I hate it when you bet your top choice to win. Then the race is over, and your second choice wins, your choice runs second and your third choice completes a $1000+ trifecta !

[so.cal.fan]

Yep, Dav4463......that is why it is SO HARD TO WIN AT THIS GAME CONSISTENTLY. This is the stuff that knocks us for a loop and often right out of the game.........:confused:

[MarylandPaul@HSH]

It seems unanimous that keeping betting records is a good thing, but it leads me to a question. If your records include low percentage types of plays; exotics, or longshot plays; how meaningful is it to know that you've hit 7 of your last 50 plays, or even 15/100?

If you were analyzing a factor from a database, you'd likely conclude that the sample is too small to be trusted, wouldn't you? Why is it different with your betting records? It's not like you have a separate, independant sample to check against. How many of us have thousands of races in our betting records? And even if we did, how would you know whether a streak, good or bad, wasn't due to our frame of mind at the time in question?

I'm not saying it's a bad idea. I'm saying that maybe we shouldn't accept as gospel short-term statistics based on our own subjectivity, when we wouldn't accept those same stats when applied to a mechanical method.

Of course, hitting 15/100 beats the hell out of hitting 3/100. <g>

MP

[steve fierro]

Trying2win,

You bring up a strong thread topic.

1. Never believe anyone that tells you there is only one way to win at the races. Horseracing is a money venture. Every individual will realize two things. First, the way they enjoy investing their money. Next, they will land on a method they are good at and are comfortable with.
My style is win betting. I enjoy it and am good at it. I am not good at isolating the first loser for the exacta or second loser for the tri. I have friends that are excellent at that.

2. The reason most players do not win is at the first sign of a losing streak they abandon what they are working on. Horse investing is a game very much like the stock market. Many people lose in the market for many of the same reasons.
This January I had the personal supreme test. I experienced my biggest financial loss in nine years of full time wagering. I stayed the course had a normal Feb. April was a recording breaking profit month. October (thanks to runners like Cajun Beat was also spectacular). Let me re-emphasize this is true of any financial endeavor. My records verified that this was a typical run just "bunched up" negative and positive.

3. So What to do. My recommendation is to bet 50% of the level you are copmfortable with. Ex: $20 win comfort zone, bet $10.
You must bet. I don not believe in hypothetical situations or workups. The experience of following through on your strategies with enough money to "feel it" win or lose cannot be done "hypothetically. You must feel the physical and emotional bite of win streaks and losing streaks.
Whatever the process is keep it going for six months. Keep detailed records. Treat each month as an independent "session" (thanks Dave S.) Then see how each session played out. This will give you a nice snapshot of the ebb and flow of the game while experiencing the mental highs and lows. It may sound strange but one of the biggest assets the winning players I know possess is the ability to not be afraid to lose by the day the month etc. They win because the $$$ invested is used only to keep score. I know this is hard for many to understand. It is a fact however.

Iknow this was a bit long but I hope this helps.

Steve Fierro

[PaceAdvantage]

Excellent, excellent post Mr. Fierro....THANK YOU!

[trying2win]

Steve,

Thanks for the timely reminders.

-- Firstly, about the pandemic myth about there being only one way to win at the horse racing game.

-- Secondly, about winning and losing streaks. They're part of the game. Even the best horse players, soon find out that winning at the races is anything but consistent. A long-term winning bettor in the midst of a losing streak, must have confidence in themselves until they hit a few good payoffs again. Then they are back to profitability, and feeling ebullient about the racing game again.

--Thirdly, about betting with real money. As we all know by now, paper bets always seem to work out better than bets with real money!

You seem to have a natural talent for writing. It shows with your fluid, colorful, and easy-to-read style on your post here. I haven't read your book "The Four Quarters of Horse Investing", but I've read some accolades about it.


Regards,

Trying2win