6/19 Calder Thread

[skipaway100]

I'll post a few picks here throughout the day.


Calder Race 1

#3 R Girl's Loaded has the best fig, 32 debut, followed by a 35. Can't play at 1/5., will take a shot that the young, immature 2 yo bounces.

#4 Little Chicken debut'd a 32, but then regressed to 25, and 24. Not a great long-term development sign.

#7 Lady Of Samaria - 32 debut, but only regressed to a 28 afterwards. I think she has a better than than the 4 of coming back to that number.


Going to try the 7 at 5-1.

[wonatthewire1]

would be tough to bet against a 1/5 shot in a small field (2MTP); would be better 2 sit it out

[skipaway100]

would be tough to bet against a 1/5 shot in a small field (2MTP); would be better 2 sit it out

I never have a problem betting against a 1/5. :cool: . Especially a 2 yo filly. But you were right here. :ThmbUp:

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2nd Race

1 Rainbow Cruise - 39 in Jan, big since too slow (28-23).
2 Seattle Zipper - 44 in Dec, hasn't been close since, mid-upper 30s wouldn't shock me here though.
3 Run Smart One - High 30s-Low 40s.
4 Yombo Maugere - 36 top, too slow
5 Woodruff Ridge - big route number last summer (48), not as good this year, high 30s. 40 wouldn't shock me.
6 Wild Icarus - 39 top last year, 12 month layoff here. Unlikely
7 V I Mongoose - Too slow, Low 30s
8 Stage Deli - 44 in December, regressed 40-34-34, but some rest into this one, 2nd start with Gillian Andreason, shoudl improve. High 30s-Low 40s.
9 Nana's Hope - 39 top, high 30s likely today


Run Smart One 7/5 is a big underlay. He's got a chance, but he's any faster than a couple others here.

Seattle Zipper with the inside post at 11-1 has some value and is worth a shot. Stage Deli 9/2 is a major contender as well, I like those two as the keys.

[skipaway100]

Another triple? YAY! 8-3-2!

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3rd Race

#1 Peter Boy - 32 last two are his best, decent chance of running better. 30-35.
#2 Scratch
#3 Dixie Slam - 35 last out, but he's reacted to poorly to these. Still, low 30s is likely.
#4 Laguana D'Oro - 26 last out after 17 month layoff. Has only 33's to run back to. Anything faster unlikely. 28-33.
#5 Mr. L.A. - Best fig (36) was on turf.. Has only 32 on dirt and not running well recently, high 20s, maybe 30.
#6 Tuff Mexican - 31-32-38 heading into this. Would like more rest off the 38, could react to it, but the fastest fig in the field is a major contender. A small regress is likely but good enough to win. 30-36.
#7 Philourpockets - 35 last time out, BIG figures as a 2 year old, 40, 38 sprint numbers. Tried him out on turf this year. Now gets a CF to AA trainer/jockey switch with Jorge Navarro and Jesus Rios. MAJOR CONTENDER.
#8 Jake Conrad S - 29 top. Too Slow
#9 Growl - Very good sprint numbers, 39 top last Dec here over the slop, 35-35-36-37 this year. Competitor.


#7 Philourpockets is a nice bet at 3-1 and #9 Growl has value at 6-1. They are the keys.

Tuff Mexico is your 3/2 favorite and a contender and must be used.

[skipaway100]

Tuff Mexican is going to be a good horse me thinks. Nice finish Growl!

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4th Race

1 Catch That Kitten - 40 top turf route, 36-40+ today
2 Greatest Dream - 42 dirt fig last December, has a 39 on turf. High 30's today and a forward move into the 40s isn't impossible
3 SCR
4 Battle Of Love - 41 dirt route top, in Apr., followed up with a 37 on turf, which could have been a natural reaction to the top. Upper 30's likely, low 40s possible.
5 Many Crowns - Big 40 back in December, before the layoff, starting to work his way back towards that, decent chance of getting there today I think. High 30s-40. Getting some weight from the field too.
6 SCR
7 My Precious Baby - 41 turf top, ran a real clunker last time after showing some consistancy. Rolling her right back tells me everything is okay and I give this one a decent chance of returning to the 40 area.
8 Outwildcattin - Too slow

Very competitive race, only two real tossouts.

#7 is the favorite at 8/5, and has a good chance, but the price isn't good.

#5 Many Crowns 7-1 has value and I'll use him and try to get him to hit the board with some of the others (1,2,4)

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9th Race

#6 Mel Beach and #1A Argentine Tango have the fastest figs (each have a 42), but I'm going to go a couple notches below them and try #7 Midnight Serenade (15-1) who has a 36. If the other two can come back a little and he moves forward a little bit, he could pay at a big price.