How well would a scientist do in horse racing? [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Mindchild

11-07-2003, 10:36 AM

How well would a scientist do in horse racing? :D

I know I shouldn’t be telling you this but I really don’t know a whole lot about horse racing (although I’m starting to study the subject) but on the upside, I’m a credentialed computational biologist who is extremely versed in data mining, statistical methodologies, and mathematical software usage. I’m looking into horse racing more along the lines of a career change rather than recreational sport as I’m finding academic work not challenging enough and filled increasingly with administrational fools who worry more about lawsuits and prestige than real research.

Having said all this, I’ve been reading over this site and elsewhere, realizing that it is difficult to make any global generalizations about how well someone does in the business of race wagering. For example, in a Wired magazine article entitled, “The High Tech Trifecta” it relates how organized betting teams make millions a year in Hong Kong racetracks and even some American racetracks and I noticed in reading this board that some individuals do fairly well (but certainly not millions of dollars) on a consistent basis by making careful bets. However, I also read there is great variation in winning, even with the pro’s (look at the Breeder’s Cup threads to see what I mean) and even smart betters lose money. The question I’m asking myself though is this: do you need to be part of a sophisticated wagering team to make decent money at this (I’m aiming for somewhere around $250K a year for income) or can you do it on your own or say with one partner working a local racetrack?

Some of the books and articles I’ve read already about wagering are not all that encouraging for considering horse racing as an occupation but on the other hand there seem to be lots of people who are veterans at this and do well, having fun to boot. In any case, all this sounds better than what I have been doing but I would really appreciate your opinions of how well you think someone with my skills would do in the horse racing occupation.

Mindchild :)

GameTheory

11-07-2003, 11:33 AM

Some thoughts:

First, your manner of speaking (writing) and rather unusual question (computational biology to handicapping?), along with the fact that you've never posted here before, make me question whether or not you are genuine at all. That is not an accusation, but if you're really a scientist than you can appreciate skepticism. If you are "for real", you may be somewhat unnerved to know to that you sound very much like a few of the more pathological characters I've run across who like to play mind games on the internet, unless of course you are one of those pathological characters.

But leaving that aside, let's assume your're serious. Your skills may help you eventually, but most likely they will actually hinder you for a while because of the various pitfalls involved in the horseracing business and the preconceived notions you might have. There are two approaches I think might be successful:

-- Forget everything you know about statistics, etc. Just learn how to handicap horses. And *any* time you think to yourself while exploring some angle, "Why, this avenue of thought isn't going to be fruitful because of such-and-such logical reason" then go ahead and explore it anyway, because those are going to be the fruitful avenues -- those that seem to defy (at first) logic. Always remember the only way to succeed at horseracing is to bet against what everyone else is betting on.

-- Alternatively, do not attempt to learn anything whatsoever about handicapping or horses. Simply accumulate data without any notions what the more predictive variables are or how they might be related to other variables. And do your data mining and statistical analysis and attempt to crack it using only your current modeling skills. You will probably find that predicting horse races isn't all that hard, but that making money is quite difficult because of the correspondence of your predictions with the public odds. I cannot solve this problem for you in an internet post, but solutions do exist.

In any case, don't expect for a minute that you can just "slap a model together" or use your superior knowledge of statistics and you'll be beating the races. Many have tried, and many have failed.

Either way, you are talking about a commitment of years to be able to reach profitability, and if you want to make 250K a year then you're talking about betting many millions of dollars per year. Now of course the idea is to churn your money, but you still have to have quite large capital. Consider that you'd be doing great to have a 10% profit margin while making very large bets, and also consider that North American pools are not that big and can't neccessarily support the amount you'd want to be betting. So maybe you'd want to move to Hong Kong or Japan where the real money is. And yes, in any scenario you can expect some unnerving losing streaks, but your knowledge of probability distributions and standard deviations can tell you that.

In short, I think you'd really have to be an incredibly well-funded genius who is willing to lose for quite a while, or a special kind of fool to attempt to make a career change from computational biology to horseplayer in one step. Why not try it as a hobby?

JustRalph

11-07-2003, 12:07 PM

I wonder who this one is............

250k a year.....quotes Wired Mag Article........ this should be good. This board can be a hoot..............if you are real........stay in your old job............or go to work for DRF........they could use a few new experts...........

Mindchild

11-07-2003, 12:08 PM

Hi GameTheory,

Thank you for taking the time to give me a cordial and serious reply. I can appreciate how strange it is to see a post like mine coming from my background, but I thought the honest up front approach was going to be best for the information I hoped to get.

I'm begining to understand that you are correct in when you said:

You will probably find that predicting horse races isn't all that hard, but that making money is quite difficult because of the correspondence of your predictions with the public odds.

From what I see, just knowing which horse has the greatest probablity of winning the race isn't enough. Like you also said:

Always remember the only way to succeed at horseracing is to bet against what everyone else is betting on.

So, if I understand you correctly, the main problem isn't putting together performance modeling of the horses but rather understanding and exploiting the behavior of other people who are making wagers. After all, if it were easily dicernable which horse would be the winner to everyone, there would be no profit realizable from the horse. And it understanding and predicting the betting behavior that takes the longest to master?

The other thing you might be able to help me understand is the profitablity factor for investments. You mentioned that someone would be doing great with a 10% profit margin. I could appreciate then that it would take a considerable amount of investment capital to achieve my goals if this is the case. This suggests to me that the best thing to do is to join or put together a racing wagering team in which specialists in wagering, performance modeling, etc. would work together with investors capital to achieve higher profitablity than an individual alone could do. As I don't have enough savings to last me a couple of years, that sounds like a more logical approach to looking at wagering from a business perspective.

Oh, and while many people might look as a career in science as profitable, I can assure you that there are many scientists who make less per year than a garbage collector. That is a fact! It is a major pain in the ass these days to get research funding and you are doing good with a $40K per year salary. I've already gone off into the private sector doing data mining and have made three times my salary at the University I worked. However, I want to explore something new.

Thanks again for your insight and recommendations.

Mindchild

Mindchild

11-07-2003, 12:11 PM

JustRalph..so $250K a year is totally unrealistic? What do veteran betters make then a year? Considerably less?

No, I'm not trying to be funny. It might sound that way because I'm coming from a completely different background but I assure you I'm not playing games.

Mindchild

Valuist

11-07-2003, 12:23 PM

Let's say you become an excellent capper and bettor. Let's say you can get a solid 10% ROI. Are you ready to go from not betting to pushing $2.5 million thru the windows per year? Let's say you bet 300 days a year, you'd have to AVERAGE $8,333 a day in handle. That's quite a step for a newcomber.

Mindchild

11-07-2003, 01:10 PM

Hi Valuist,

Thanks for adding some input. I certainly don't have access to that kind of money needed for an ROI of 10%. This would mean that I would have to use investors if my profit margin were extrapolated from that percentage. The other wake up call is the time needed to make the bets, I read some threads on here of how mental fatigue effects your judgement and agree with the conclusions.

It looks more and more to me that to make this kind of money individually, I would need to be part of a wagering team.

Do you, or anyone else for that matter, know of indivduals who put together their own teams and are willing to talk about the results they got for the efforts?

Mindchild

Dave Schwartz

11-07-2003, 01:16 PM

I'll be brief and to the point:

1. There certainly are people making $250k+ per year. I know several personally.

2. It isn't easy and it isn't hard. That means it is hard for some (I am one of those) and easy for others (those that are doing it).

3. Teams (or syndicates) exist. But anyone with knowledge of them would be either part of them or on the periphery and will be hesitant to discuss it. That means you would have to get your knowledge from someone that has only "speculation" to pass on as knowledge.

I suggest that if you have interest in starting one of those teams you must have some part of what is needed to bring it to fruitition. That would possibly make you more qualified than most of the people that are willing to speak about it (see #3 above).

I look forward to YOUR ideas.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Jaguar

11-07-2003, 01:17 PM

Mindchild, this from an old handicapper:

1. The pros shoot for an ROI of 18%

2. Since, as Game Theory wisely said, you have to bet on overlays-whether you are playing alone or as part of a syndicate-(by the way, the syndicates require you to commit to laying out $2,000-$4,000 per week in order to chase the Pick Six overlays), you will need first rate software- TB5, All-Ways Professional Version, or NSPACE- unless you are part of a syndicate, in which case the syndicate IT guy handles the software worries.

3. If you do handicap by yourself, you will have to set the filters for 4-1 or 5-1 mutuels, which means that your software will not give you that many races at each track.

This of course means that to generate more than $40,000 in profits(a ballpark figure for returns from playing 4-5 tracks daily using good software), you will have to look at 12-15 tracks per day, which involves alot of time in front of the pc.

4. Moreover, it is not too time consuming to make models for 3 or 4 tracks every day. But, to make models for 12-15 tracks on a daily basis would be taxing in terms of time and energy.(This does not pertain to NSPACE because RACECOM updates their models daily right on their server, a real time saver and a real saving in terms of data costs.

5. Horse handicappers that are clearing $60-$80K per year are looking at 4-5 tracks per day and are focusing on Pick 3 overlays, Pick 4's and Superfectas, so- again- your models must be absolutely water tight.

6. There is no one in this game earning $250,000 that is not part of a syndicate. Furthermore, if you speak with guys who are in a syndicate, you will find that while they are very happy at the end of the year, they can have bad beat weeks.

So, if that bad beat happens to coincide with a scheduled mortgage payment, the horse player has to have deep pockets- and a very understanding wife.("We can't get the new bedroom furniture this month honey, because my outfit got dq'd right out of the Pick Six at Santa Anita.")

Note that the pitfall is if your group has an out this week, next week you are still obligated to put up another $2,000-$4,000.
Alot of guys don't want that kind of commitment and the pressure it can entail, and I don't fault them for that.

Finally, betting on horses is predicated upon betting on winners and eliminating losers, which requires patience, good judgment, a certain degree of raw courage, and the best track-specific models which current technology can generate.

The bottom line is that the models get the money.

All The Best,

Jaguar

Suff

11-07-2003, 01:26 PM

Hey Mindchild. Good luck. Keep us abreast of your Learning curve. I'd love to see you Publicly work your way through the due diligence on this new venture. That'd be an intersting read.

There is one lil joke I have heard That I'll share with you.

Q. Do You know how to end up with a MILLION dollars in the Horse racing Business?

A. Start with 5 Million.

pmd62ndst

11-07-2003, 01:50 PM

Don't quit your day job.

There is a serious learning curve with handicapping. Don't learn the game without a paycheck. I am a software developer with an emphasis on database and statistics so I was always trying to develop racing systems as a hobby.

For me, things really didn't kick into gear until the day I got laid off from my job and I was able to concentrate all my efforts into horse racing. Even still, I had a severance and I was still collecting money from unemployment so I never really felt the "pressure" of having to win wagers to put food on the table. I can't even imagine the stress involved with that.

PMD

Mindchild

11-07-2003, 02:22 PM

Hello Dave Schwartz,

My thanks to you as well for giving me some valuable feedback. I agree with what you are saying here. I think once I had a system that worked reasonably well to make a profit, I wouldn't be too interested in letting out details to others. I'm also clearly seeing the disadvantage I have in not having the betting experience that many of you veteran players have. I'm even wondering if personality wise, I'm cut out for playing the races independently as I'm conservative in my outlook and cautious, always wanting to make sure I'm right. I understand of course there are no absolute's only degrees of probabilites but this might be something that would work aginst me in making money on bets. I would rather stick to what I know I'm good at, and that is coming up with creative solutions to problems and discovering new informational patterns.

Jaguar,

Thank you for such a wealth of generous information. You did give me some encouragement about having good software models as being important but there of course is much more. I'm wondering if any of you have experience with A.I. neural net software for doing data prediction. It might be an interesting project to get some of this or similar software to make weighed judgements not only on horse performance data but on wagering behavior as well. I can see from your comments that doing wagering professionally is not for the timid of heart! :D

Thanks for the warning Suff, I just hope I can avoid following that joke in real life :p

Thank you pmd62ndst for sharing your experiences. I can understand what you mean by the pressure to pay the bills. I'm hoping to find something in the next 6 months to get involved in as I'm ending my current project this year.

Finally, I wanted to ask anyone if they think there would be money to be made from just marketing the predictive models via a subscription service? I know there are predictions already sold on some websites but what if you had a model that was good enough to give back a refund to the buyer if it fell below par? Would any of you use such a service if it were offered? In other words, you get your money back if it doesn't work?

Mindchild

kenwoodallpromos

11-07-2003, 02:54 PM

If you are truly saying you make $40,000.00 per year with your credentials you will NEVER make it in horse betting! and you know a lot and have researched subscription predictions with guarantee if below par but know Nothing about horseracing? LIAR!!! You have already been outed by me and others in this short time! We want an honest group here, not a "computational Biologist with vast credentials. I got news for you- if your bosses hired someone with your "credentials at $40,000 YOU are the fool, they are the smart ones!!LOL!!! Just go read my threads and bet, unless you are as foolish as others who trash me while I go and make 80% profit yesterday at GGF on a Morey-Baze turfer and 4 favs who were 1-1 or better! Then if you refuse a 20% profit on 2 free systems you are an even bigger fool! Most people who lose at the races have egos many times bigger than their brains!!

kenwoodallpromos

11-07-2003, 03:11 PM

Obviously thjs guy is a faker who registered today but uses smileys and quotes! Needs investors and a local track guy and to be part of an investment team or people to buy his race prediction software but have no money to invest! Sounds to me like a very experienced handicapper and he is looking for people to rip off!!! RUN!! BTW, he DID give an actual date as his birthday! Let's see who else has the same birthday on here!!LOL!!

kenwoodallpromos

11-07-2003, 03:50 PM

I think you are MV MCKee!

Suff

11-07-2003, 04:04 PM

Holy cow huh... son of a....

This was and is pretty predominate on other Boards...People using multiple names on Boards.

PA watchs this pretty close I think... Thats the beauty of a Moderated Board.

I hope your wrong. Because its weak.

With the cirlce of guys we have that post under thier Known names. And are known in the industry. Also..The group of 40 or so that met at Saratoga makes this Board pretty credible. But this is the internet and this stuff goes on all day every day at other boards. It's a real Cancer to unmoderated Boards.

GameTheory

11-07-2003, 04:54 PM

It is not MV McKee.

I know because I am MV McKee.

Ok, ok, actually I just wish I were as smart or as dedicated as MV McKee...

keilan

11-07-2003, 05:13 PM

I think your a flake!

You think M. McKee and Mindchild are one of the same, Christ son, get back on your meds immediately.

Suff

11-07-2003, 05:37 PM

MVmckee. Thats the Bright young man that was the first to inform the Board that DRF Formulator files were Missing Running Lines from the Fall of 2002. Yes... Bright boy. He started the thread where Marc@drf took a real liking to me.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=7157

sq764

11-07-2003, 06:23 PM

Damnit Suff, I clicked on that link and just had to keep reading every post, I was so caught up in it..

That's 10 minutes of my life I am not getting back..

Mindchild

11-07-2003, 08:47 PM

Hmm,

I guess I didn't expect such negativity from some. You might have had problems in this discussion group from trouble makers but again I assure you I had no agenda but to ask some honest questions and get some information.

I think I will take my leave though as I have no intention of getting into a shouting match with people who think I'm someone I'm not. I want to thank all of you who spent time responding intelligently and thoughtfully to my posts and I appreciate your feedback. I'm going to continue my reading on the subject but I have to admit I don't have such a positive attitude about the whole adventure. Perhaps such wake ups are good though.

Kind Regards,

Mindchild

Amazin

11-07-2003, 11:02 PM

Mindchild

Regardless of whether or not you are a fake,the premise of a newcomer to walk into the horseracing world expecting to make $250,000 a year based on any method is about the most naive and foolish activity for financial disaster. So if you are sincere the negativity shown to you here has served a positive purpose for your sake.

GameTheory

11-07-2003, 11:28 PM

Originally posted by Amazin
Regardless of whether or not you are a fake,the premise of a newcomer to walk into the horseracing world expecting to make $250,000 a year based on any method is about the most naive and foolish activity for financial disaster. So if you are sincere the negativity shown to you here has served a positive purpose for your sake.

He's right. It is not much different than if you had said, "I'm a computational biologist, but now I want to play in the NBA. Where do I start?"

kenwoodallpromos

11-08-2003, 02:38 AM

Even offering a $$ back guarantee on a product he admits knowing not a lot about!!! The 1st day on the group!! Anybody heard of SPAM?!!LOL!! Anybody want to join his group of bettors and !) invest $$ while he does not. / 2) Teach him how to apply his career to capping. / 3) Buy his software. / 4) be his runner at the local track. / 5) Do all the work while he contributes nothing and he makes $250,000.00 per year? LOL!!! For not being another user with a new name, he sure knows all about the Breeders' Cup contest results!!

kenwoodallpromos

11-08-2003, 02:55 AM

I may have been wrong about you being another user here! At least you have your picture online! Nice patriotic bikini! LOL!! Like I said, you can check out my FREE systems on this group if you like. My system hit 7 of 10 winners at GGF Nov. 6 and 7! There are some real dedicated "data miners" here!

timtam

11-08-2003, 08:51 AM

Kenwoodall,

Why don't you get a job as a bugler at a track? You sure like to blow your own horn.

takeout

11-08-2003, 09:10 AM

Originally posted by Suff
MVmckee. Thats the Bright young man that was the first to inform the Board that DRF Formulator files were Missing Running Lines from the Fall of 2002. Yes... Bright boy. He started the thread where Marc@drf took a real liking to me.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=7157
Suff,

Your post about trying to call Marc (page 4) was one of the funniest things I've ever read. It's cracking me up right now just thinking about it. Even printed it out to have on hand for when I need a good laugh. You just can't make up stuff like that. :D

so.cal.fan

11-08-2003, 10:20 AM

Mindchild:
I have a friend who is a scientist.....he works at JPL in Pasadena, Calif. He helps send crafts to Mars.
He used to be a handicapper.........but gave it up.
He told me never to worry about the engineers and other scientists who try to beat the horses......they will never be any competition.
Honest.....that is what he said!
I think what he meant was that it handicapping is more an art than a science and that betting is more a business, that very few business types can be really good at.
You better just have some fun for a few years, and see if it is really for you.

Tom

11-08-2003, 11:38 AM

I have to come clean. All this talk about clones has made me feel guilty for deceiveing many of you. I need to admitt that I have also been posting on this board as "Gangbuster" for two years now. I hope no one was offended by those posts.

:rolleyes:

Rick

11-08-2003, 06:15 PM

socal,

It's not impossible for an engineer or scientist to beat the races but they have to get beyond the idea that they're smarter than everyone else and it's going to be easy. Many engineering and scientific problems have been solved fairly easily by using predictive models, so it's natural for them to assume that horse racing will be the same.

Someone who's been involved in economic or stock market forecasting would not have a similar problem however. Those areas frequently yield disappointing results and would better prepare a person for the situation in horse racing. Noisy data, nonstationary statistics, and a constantly changing public perception of what's important are only a few of the problems associated with predicting horse racing.

The bottom line is that it requires not only a good education in how to develop predictive models but also a great deal of creativity in selecting the variables. That kind of talent is not developed quickly. Benter took about 5 years to develop it in Hong Kong and he's a pretty smart guy. That seems like about the minimum to me. It took me a lot longer than that.

JustRalph

11-08-2003, 09:41 PM

Originally posted by Tom
I have to come clean. All this talk about clones has made me feel guilty for deceiveing many of you. I need to admitt that I have also been posting on this board as "Gangbuster" for two years now. I hope no one was offended by those posts.:rolleyes:

If Tom is going to come clean,,,,, I am too..... I have been posting as "Vetscratch".....gave it up a while back.

Not Really...............but I am considering registering as "Assscratch"

kenwoodallpromos

11-09-2003, 01:15 AM

Variable situations and circumstances mean a lot. / Blowing my own horn- must be my upbringing- I played trumpet in school!!LOL!!

timtam

11-09-2003, 08:44 AM

Kenwoodall,

LOL!! It would be refreshing to attend a high school band concert and hear a rendition of BOOTS N SADDLES. I wonder how many in the audience would head for either the windows or the exits. Its something about that song!!!

ceejay

11-09-2003, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
Mindchild:
I have a friend who is a scientist.....he works at JPL in Pasadena, Calif. He helps send crafts to Mars.
He used to be a handicapper.........but gave it up.
He told me never to worry about the engineers and other scientists who try to beat the horses......they will never be any competition.
Honest.....that is what he said!
I think what he meant was that it handicapping is more an art than a science and that betting is more a business, that very few business types can be really good at.
You better just have some fun for a few years, and see if it is really for you.

SCF,

I think that scientists can apply scientific methods and be successful in handicapping. I draw your attention to your post on another thread:
"I believe 4 personality traits are present in very successful bettors.

1. A keen, creative and intuitive mind
2.Persistent nature, ability to stick to one's own good ideas, almost ignoring completely, the good or bad opinion of others.
3. A keen business sense, much like the CEO of a large company.
4. A Zen-like personality, ability to maintain balance in all situations, making it far more probable to perform spontanious correct actions.....and responses to those actions.

Most serious players have one or two of these qualities, very, very few have all four."

IMO, items 1, 2, and 4 are qualities of good scientists (but I personally listen to ideas of others if I find them meritorious). #3 is a quality of financially successful scientists. Perhaps #3 will keep that successful scientist doing his/her original science and not go into handicapping full-time.

As Rick says, "Many engineering and scientific problems have been solved fairly easily by using predictive models, so it's natural for them to assume that horse racing will be the same.
...
Noisy data, nonstationary statistics, and a constantly changing public perception of what's important are only a few of the problems associated with predicting horse racing.

The bottom line is that it requires not only a good education in how to develop predictive models but also a great deal of creativity in selecting the variables. "

Noisy data is a particular charchteristic of many scientific data sets, especially the ones that I work with in my science. Professional judgement goes into when to emphasize or discount particular information.

Now, I'm not suggesting that a cookie-cutter set of numerical models are the way to apply the science. But, I being a scientist helps me in my handicapping.

so.cal.fan

11-09-2003, 02:42 PM

Good points, Ceejay:

I guess if a person had all of these qualities, they would be successful in most any business.

Dave Schwartz

11-09-2003, 02:49 PM

You know, I see myself as a scientist of sorts, but in the eyse of the world I would never qualify. The truth is that scientists do not typically make lots of money. It is the entreprenauer that makes the money with whatever the scientist figured out.

IMHO, to succeed at the races at the level many of us desire to achieve, demands an entrprenaurial mind with some understanding of science and the ability to exploit the science of others. Some of us attempt to do both ends (which is very difficult).

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

VetScratch

11-09-2003, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by JustRalph
If Tom is going to come clean,,,,, I am too..... I have been posting as "Vetscratch".....gave it up a while back.

...but I am considering registering as "AssScratch"
Hi Ralph,

I have also decided to clean up my act.

...Try becoming cleaner than this!

:D :D :D :D

Rick

11-09-2003, 06:02 PM

CJ,

I probably should have emphasized that scientific and engineering EDUCATION make it seem as if most problems are relatively easy to solve. Depending on the type of work one is doing, it may not seem that way after a great deal of experience. But I know of many, many people who have gotten very excited about how easy it should be to predict horse racing after having taken a few statistics classes in college. Most of the engineers and physicists that I've known had only a minimal amount of experience with statistics and would most likely think that way. No textbook would ever contain an example of a regression equation with as low an r squared as is typically found in horse racing problems. It just wouldn't make a good example of how powerful statistical analysis can be.

Jaguar

11-09-2003, 06:10 PM

VetScratch, you contribute alot to this board by way of knowledge, insight, humor, and understanding.

Any time anyone makes a crude remark on this great board it does not demean the target of that remark- or the board. It just demeans the person that made the remark.

Happily, your dignity is unassailable.

All The Best,

Jaguar

Jaguar

11-09-2003, 06:18 PM

Note to our PA community: when Dave Schwartz states that he is not a scientist, don't believe it.

I am very familiar with Dave's work and I can assure you that he is a talented scientist. The record will show that he is the first modern handicapper. TB4 killed the races.

A bunch of guys made alot of money as a result of using Dave's excellent neural nets.

All The Best,

Jaguar

Tom

11-09-2003, 06:31 PM

Originally posted by VetScratch
Hi Ralph,

I have also decided to clean up my act.

...Try becoming cleaner than this!

:D :D :D :D

VS,
I have three words for you regarding this new racy avatar.....

Cut ,
Paste,
Zoom.

:eek:

JustRalph

11-09-2003, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by VetScratch
Hi Ralph,I have also decided to clean up my act.
...Try becoming cleaner than this! :D :D :D :D

Witty as ever! LOL <------ I never use that, but this time it applies. Very nice picture............ but I am not sending you anymore naked pictures of me if you are going to use them in such a shameless manner! Tom will be thrilled to finally see the other half of that photo........

JustRalph

11-09-2003, 06:35 PM

Timing is everything...............

VetScratch

11-09-2003, 07:04 PM

Ralph,

You are uncanny! Yes, you told me so...:) :) :)

You definitely must have been the inspiration for the new ESPN advertisements... which go something like this:

Stud Athlete Reading: "Hmmm, they say the World Series of Poker is a fascinating but largely overlooked media event... why that's what I was thinking yesterday... how did they know that?"

Pop-Up Magazine Logo: ESPn The Magazine

========

Since not everyone may approve of the avatar for our proposed new PA member (AssScratch), tomorrow I'll go back to my original VetScratch avatar... and I always liked you best as Steve McQueen.

If you could mount Steve on your new ride, that avatar would be awesome!!!

BTW, have you noticed that Miami (Ohio) has a better record than Miami (Florida)? Go you RedHawks! :) :) :)

Rick

11-09-2003, 07:07 PM

VS,

Aha! Now we know who you really are. Lauren Stich. Some may not realize why this is funny and I'm not going to explain. Take a walk on the wild side.

VetScratch

11-09-2003, 08:45 PM

Jaguar,
Originally posted by Jaguar
Note to our PA community: when Dave Schwartz states that he is not a scientist, don't believe it.

I am very familiar with Dave's work and I can assure you that he is a talented scientist. The record will show that he is the first modern handicapper. TB4 killed the races.

A bunch of guys made alot of money as a result of using Dave's excellent neural nets.

All The Best,

Jaguar A long overdue tribute to Dave!!!

I hope at least one of the Sacred 25 Algorithm Discs remains available for dedication as memorial trubute. As I recall, the 2003 Conclave of Handicapping Beta Testers renamed one of the few undedicated algorithms as a memorial tribute to Dr. Sengbush's induction into the Hall of Fame. IMHO, you should draft a proposal to create new placeholder algorithms (e.g., numbers 26 through 50). These placeholders could be dedicated as memorials in the event that the discovery of new algorithms does not keep pace with annual inductions into the Handicappers Hall of Fame.

BTW, scientists at the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory have confirmed that micro-tremors spiked significantly at SA right after the BC Distaff. As predicted by Sengbush's theories (and confirmed by CJ and others who figure accurate variants and speed figures), the track got faster because of the micro-tremors after Adoration won the Distaff. Reportedly, these scientists bet the house on Cajun Beat! :)

Dave Schwartz

11-09-2003, 09:02 PM

VS,

You said: "Reportedly, these scientists bet the house on Cajun Beat!"

Does the above statement indicate:

1. that these scientists have very small, inexpensive houses.

2. that there aren't too many of these scientists.

3. that these scientists were smart enough to bet off-shore to not kill prices.

<G>

Dave Schwartz

PS: I had to add the "<G>" because you said something nice about me.

PPS: Are you really Lauren Stich?

VetScratch

11-09-2003, 09:59 PM

Dave,

As the microscopic particles were settling after the micro-tremors (which brought on the fast early fractions), the scientists looked for the best value among the confirmed early-speed sprinters.

From what one of them reported, they ended up with Shake You Down and Cajun Beat as their two most logical early-speed contenders (after a vote among them eliminated Great Notion, Midas Eyes, and Captain Squire).QSP = Quirin Speed Points
AVG_PACE = Averages computed by BRIS from previous comparable races.
BEST_PACE = Best individual pace segements from previous comparable races.
E1 = 1st Call Pace Rating
E2 = 2nd Call Pace Rating
LP = Late Pace Rating (final 2f)

Q BRIS BRIS Early_Speed
S AVG-PACE___ BEST-PACE__ Late_Toteboard
H#E Horse__________ P E1 E2 LP E1 E2 LP Odds

1 ZAVATA 3 94 107 96 98 109 104

2 SHAKE YOU DOWN 7 102 119 95 103 124 99 7/2

3 POSSE 1 78 96 103 97 114 108

4 VALID VIDEO 2 93 108 97 97 116 98

5 MIDAS EYES 5 95 105 98 95 107 107

6 ALDEBARAN 0 74 94 119 79 102 121

7 ETHAN MAN 4 96 107 99 97 112 99

8 BLUESTHESTANDAR 4 91 103 97 95 112 119

9 PRIVATE HORDE 4 89 104 95 93 108 98

10 GREAT NOTION 5 97 112 91 99 115 96

11 CAJUN BEAT 6 100 117 94 102 120 100 22/1

12 YANKEE GENTLEMA 4 93 107 100 96 109 107

13 CAPTAIN SQUIRE 6 94 108 96 102 117 102

BRIS Pace Pars: 99 109 94With regard to your assumptions/assertions:
1. There are practically no inexpensive houses near Berkeley, but none of them has an outstanding mortgage anyway.
2. There were about 7 players (all devotees of Sengbush).
3. They bet via a domestic phone account funded by winnings left over from Derby bets on Monarchos, War Emblem, and Funny Cide. They bet Win/Place only... no exotics... dumb scientists!

What they actually bet was not revealed, but they did say the micro-tremor spike registered seismic numbers that prompted one of them to exclaim, "If Sengbush were here, he would bite the rubberband off his bankroll!"

VetScratch

11-09-2003, 10:24 PM

Dave,

I had to search the web to find out who Lauren Stich really is.

Check this link which mentions Lauren Stich: http://info.detnews.com/casino/columns/details.cfm?column=schwartz&myrec=85

To my surprise, the obvious question is: are you related to Howard Schwartz? :)

Dave Schwartz

11-09-2003, 11:22 PM

VS,

No.

Dave

Amazin

11-09-2003, 11:36 PM

VS

I think the question you should be asking is "is that...... or are you boys just happy to see me back"

VetScratch

11-10-2003, 12:15 AM

Amazin,
Originally posted by Amazin
VS
I think the question you should be asking is "is that...... or are you boys just happy to see me back" Now you really have me confused... are you implying that you are Lauren or Howard?

If you are Howard, please work out a publishing deal with Jaguar so everyone can benefit from Sengbush's groundbreaking research papers! :)

VetScratch

11-10-2003, 02:23 AM

Ralph,
You are uncanny! Yes, you told me so...

You definitely must have been the inspiration for the new ESPN advertisements... which go something like this:

Stud Athlete Reading: "Hmmm, they say the World Series of Poker is a fascinating but largely overlooked media event... why that's what I was thinking yesterday... how did they know that?"

Pop-Up Magazine Logo: ESPn The MagazineThere must be some strange astrological alignments in the heavens today!

I just watched SportCenter's feature on "Fan Man" James Miller (who apparently committed suicide in Alaska). Four of us, including my dad, uncle, and step-sister were there when Fan Man landed on the ropes at the Holyfield-Bowe fight at Caesars.

We spotted him when folks beside us started pointing and looking up. To get under the ring canopy, he came in at an extreme angle and was lucky (or maybe skillful) to make it as far as the ropes.

At the time, I was shocked because the official security guys appeared to stand back and let the VIP posse (i.e., the guys who paraded to the ring with the fighters) beat on Miller for what seemed like an eternity. I think a better trained or disciplined security force could have taken control and reduced the interruption to less then 10 minutes... I am still mystified by how the 18-20 minute delay derailed Bowe... my dad remembers that Holyfield stayed much more active than Bowe and theorizes that Bowe "lost his sweat" during the delay, whatever that means.

Of course, you must have known all this before you implanted the ESPN Magazine idea in my mind! :)