bks
06-18-2011, 11:42 AM
Interesting race, in that there shouldn't be a big favorite, several horses have questions to answer and a case can be made for or three longshots IMO.
I'm not using Apart, who hasn't shown he can beat this caliber. I don't like Duke of Mischief who, while in good form currently, runs best at FG, doesn't appear to like Churchill all that much and also hasn't demonstrated he can beat G1-type horses. Regal Ransom just ran a nice race, but is he a G1 handicap horse? He's not getting an easy lead in here with Mission Impazible scheduled to go. Pool Play is a synthetic/turf horse who hasn't shown the class to beat this kind. El Caballo is mildly interesting, but he seems best on turf as well.
That leaves Equestrio, Crown of Thorns, MI, Giant Oak, Flat Out and Worldly. The latter two will be long odds, and both have a chance.
Flat Out goes for a red-hot trainer off of a very useful comeback race. He's been training over the track and started his career here, At 20-1 or more, he's worth a play.
Same with Worldly. He loves Churchill, and has a license to improve off of his first start of the year in which he beat Bind. He's still eligible for NW2X though, and this would be his first start against older horses of graded stakes caliber. When's the last time a horse eligible for NW2X made his first start against older horses in a G1 and won the race? Still think he can hit the board.
Equestrio finished up really well in the Alysheba, and he's another improving 4-y-o who could jump up and win. Still, I'm happy to make him prove it at nine furlongs again G1 types at what I think will be odds of around 10-1 off of his strong outing last race over the track.
Mission Impazible is tempting, as he'll likely press a sensible pace and have every chance to go by Regal Ransom entering the stretch. He wants 1 1/8 miles, too. But he's marooned outside, which could certainly cause first-turn issues, and he couldn't hold his position in the stretch off a pretty good trip last time, so I'm off him.
Thus I'm left deciding what to do with the best horse in the race here, Crown of Thorns. He's the classiest animal, owns a good synthetic race at the distance and is training like a bear, but has just one start on dirt, a sprint at Santa Anita in which he didn't contend - the only race of his life other than his maiden voyage in which he didn't contend.
Does he not like dirt? Does he not like Santa Anita? Was he not fully cranked for that sprint, as Mandella suggested after the loss? Have no idea. I do know Mandella has shipped him to Churchill twice now, and he does train over SA, so Mandella must think dirt is fine. Judging from DRF's pre-race analysis and selections, he might get overlooked, and at 9/2 or higher, I'm wagering he'll run just fine at Churchill. No reason he can't press or track the pace here, and important consideration given that RR could have it relatively easy up front if MI doesn't bother him. So long as CoT handles the track, I think he's going by RR in the Churchill stretch.
Should CoT get the lead, I don't think any of these horses pass him in the stretch. And if he does win, you won't see the odds you'll get today on him for the rest of the year.
The play:
12th race: sizeable CoT bet to win/place, exacta box 2/1, 4, 7,10
11th race doubles:
3/1,2,4,7
3,5/1,2,4,7
3/2
3,5/2
Good Luck, everyone
I'm not using Apart, who hasn't shown he can beat this caliber. I don't like Duke of Mischief who, while in good form currently, runs best at FG, doesn't appear to like Churchill all that much and also hasn't demonstrated he can beat G1-type horses. Regal Ransom just ran a nice race, but is he a G1 handicap horse? He's not getting an easy lead in here with Mission Impazible scheduled to go. Pool Play is a synthetic/turf horse who hasn't shown the class to beat this kind. El Caballo is mildly interesting, but he seems best on turf as well.
That leaves Equestrio, Crown of Thorns, MI, Giant Oak, Flat Out and Worldly. The latter two will be long odds, and both have a chance.
Flat Out goes for a red-hot trainer off of a very useful comeback race. He's been training over the track and started his career here, At 20-1 or more, he's worth a play.
Same with Worldly. He loves Churchill, and has a license to improve off of his first start of the year in which he beat Bind. He's still eligible for NW2X though, and this would be his first start against older horses of graded stakes caliber. When's the last time a horse eligible for NW2X made his first start against older horses in a G1 and won the race? Still think he can hit the board.
Equestrio finished up really well in the Alysheba, and he's another improving 4-y-o who could jump up and win. Still, I'm happy to make him prove it at nine furlongs again G1 types at what I think will be odds of around 10-1 off of his strong outing last race over the track.
Mission Impazible is tempting, as he'll likely press a sensible pace and have every chance to go by Regal Ransom entering the stretch. He wants 1 1/8 miles, too. But he's marooned outside, which could certainly cause first-turn issues, and he couldn't hold his position in the stretch off a pretty good trip last time, so I'm off him.
Thus I'm left deciding what to do with the best horse in the race here, Crown of Thorns. He's the classiest animal, owns a good synthetic race at the distance and is training like a bear, but has just one start on dirt, a sprint at Santa Anita in which he didn't contend - the only race of his life other than his maiden voyage in which he didn't contend.
Does he not like dirt? Does he not like Santa Anita? Was he not fully cranked for that sprint, as Mandella suggested after the loss? Have no idea. I do know Mandella has shipped him to Churchill twice now, and he does train over SA, so Mandella must think dirt is fine. Judging from DRF's pre-race analysis and selections, he might get overlooked, and at 9/2 or higher, I'm wagering he'll run just fine at Churchill. No reason he can't press or track the pace here, and important consideration given that RR could have it relatively easy up front if MI doesn't bother him. So long as CoT handles the track, I think he's going by RR in the Churchill stretch.
Should CoT get the lead, I don't think any of these horses pass him in the stretch. And if he does win, you won't see the odds you'll get today on him for the rest of the year.
The play:
12th race: sizeable CoT bet to win/place, exacta box 2/1, 4, 7,10
11th race doubles:
3/1,2,4,7
3,5/1,2,4,7
3/2
3,5/2
Good Luck, everyone