Bridge Jumpers Races

[Robert Goren]

I have decide to look into betting against bridge jumpers. After looking at every race during daytime hours and some in the evening with a ML favorite of 3/2 or less I reach the conclusion that was too wide a standard. I have decide to limit it to even money or less ML favorites races at the top 36 tracks as ranked by HANA's MUT pool by race. I know I will miss some, but at this time sitting at the computer for 12 hours watching mutual pool numbers is not something I want to do. I have found 4 races to look at today. Times are EDT.
12:45 SUF R-1
02:27 WO R-4
04:24 SUF R-9
07:50 MNR R-3

[Canarsie]

Do you subscribe to the Bridge Jumper alert on twitter? Not every one gets posted but lots do makes it much easier.

[Robert Goren]

Do you subscribe to the Bridge Jumper alert on twitter? Not every one gets posted but lots do makes it much easier. Is there a way to get it sent to my computer? I do not have a texting plan for my cell phone.

[teddy]

get the walmart plan.. its killer.. everything for 45 a month unlimited. About 5 more for internet.

Do not bet against the woodbine horse....suffolk wont be one...

[lamboguy]

get the walmart plan.. its killer.. everything for 45 a month unlimited. About 5 more for internet.

Do not bet against the woodbine horse....suffolk wont be one...
sulfolk horse is all or nothing to start out with

[Robert Goren]

Suf horse was hit late and the money did not show up til after the break. even then it had only 80% of the show pool. No bet for me. Too bad. The horse I had pick to bet if there was a jumper won and paid $9.40 to show.

[BombsAway Bob]

Is there a way to get it sent to my computer? I do not have a texting plan for my cell phone.
if you're at your computer, it's http://www.twitter.com/Bridgejumper
leave the page open on your computer, & any posts for Bridgejumper
will post. (Note, a jump notice takes 1-2min. to get online.)

[lamboguy]

Suf horse was hit late and the money did not show up til after the break. even then it had only 80% of the show pool. No bet for me. Too bad. The horse I had pick to bet if there was a jumper won and paid $9.40 to show.
you are going to learn that finding the horses that will take the show money is a tough racket.

[Canarsie]

Add Bob to your list he tweets good stuff. Hit it a nice super (signer) investing something like $6 or so. No $50 Daily Doubles for Bob. :ThmbUp:

[Robert Goren]

get the walmart plan.. its killer.. everything for 45 a month unlimited. About 5 more for internet.

Do not bet against the woodbine horse....suffolk wont be one...I am going to look in to that. My sprint contract runs out in Aug. I do hate leave sprint because my dealing with Altel, now Verison, were a nightmare for both my personal and my company paid for phones. I have had no problem with sprint, but a data plan get pricey when compared with the Walmart/Boost.

[teddy]

I cant believe they bet on that suf horse... dumbest jump i have seen.

Even Matt C. said it was the worst even money shot in history.

[Robert Goren]

WO R-4 The jumper horse looks solid but stranger things have happened. I am going to bet the :1: . He figures to be pretty safe even the jumper horse runs in the money.

[Robert Goren]

I had to sweat a photo, but cashed for 10%. That is the idea, cash a lot, get a good reward once in a while.

[BlueShoe]

2-5 Ever Always out of the money a few minutes ago at Monmouth in a five horse field. Winner paid $8.00 to win, $14.00 to show. Anyone take a little shot against the fav?

[Robert Goren]

SUF R-9 No Jumper No Bet.

[Robert Goren]

MTR R-3 The jumper horse got some late money to push it up 82% in the show pool. Just barely got my bet in on the :2: . He won and paid 8.60 to show.
4 races
2 jumpers plus 1 bet too late (alas, he ran out)
2 bets against jumpers
1 jumper out of the money
2 bets cashed
for $2 bets the return would be $10.80 profit $6.80
Nice day all in all. I won't say how much I bet but let just say it was the best day I have had in a while. I really expected only one race to have a jumper, so it will be interesting to what the % really will be. The best part I did not have spend the whole day looking at show pools. On to tomorrow.

[dav4463]

I wonder if anybody makes this their main bet? I think it is an interesting concept. I like rooting against odds on favorites!

[Robert Goren]

Sunday produces 6 possible jumper race thanks to 3 from our friends MTR. Thankfully none are being run during Criminal Intent.
12:30 CRC R-1
04:35 WO R-8
07:00 MTR R-1
08:15 MTR R-4
07:50 EMD R-8
09:45 MTR R-10

[Robert Goren]

CRC R-1 The jumper(83% of the pool) won easily. My horse the:4: closed late to be a distant third and paid $2.60 to show.

[hugh]

Robert... I was watching TV last night...
You look exactly like the detective in Law and Order Criminal Intent.
:):)

[Robert Goren]

Robert... I was watching TV last night...
You look exactly like the detective in Law and Order Criminal Intent.
:):)Actually about 20 years ago, I did look something like the picture, but I never did look like look as good as Vincent D'Onofrio did when he started the show. This show has aged him a lot.

[Robert Goren]

WO R-8 No jumper no bet

[Robert Goren]

MTR R-1 Jumper wins easily. My horse the :2: runs a quitting fourth.

[Donnie]

Don't know if you'll get a jumper in the MTR-4...8 horses gonna line up. Interesting thread you have going here, tho.

Edit--- oops! my bad! looking at race 3!! #1 is 1/9 right now!

[Robert Goren]

MTR R-4 is off the turf with a jumper in as of now. We will see if he cancels his bet. people are lining up to take a shot at him. The % is down to 72%. It looks like I will pass.

[Donnie]

looks like he's gonna drop below 50%......

[Robert Goren]

Actually I am hoping they cancel the rest of the card. Then I could look at the EMD race and settle for what is a good rest of the night on TV.

[cnollfan]

2-5 Ever Always out of the money a few minutes ago at Monmouth in a five horse field. Winner paid $8.00 to win, $14.00 to show. Anyone take a little shot against the fav?

I hated that favorite (15 length win followed by 2 year layoff), but all I came up with was a win bet on the winner. Did not occur to me to look at the show pool. Duh!

[Robert Goren]

EMD R-8 no jumper no bet
MTR R-10 no jumper no bet
6 races
2 jumpers
2 jumpers cashied
2 bets
1 cash
$4 bet $2.60 returned loss of $ 1.40
2 day total
10 races
$8 bet $13.40 returned profit of $5.40
3 out of 4 bets cashed.

[Robert Goren]

Only 2 possibles today, both from our friends at Suffolk Downs
12:45 SUF R-1
02:33 SUF R-5

[lamboguy]

sulfolk is going to be big in the first race

[horses4courses]

Only 2 possibles today, both from our friends at Suffolk Downs
12:45 SUF R-1
02:33 SUF R-5

22:45 MNR R-10 #1 may qualify

[lamboguy]

sulfolk is going to be big in the first racei expected over $200k on that one, it must be the economy, the horse only got $50k

[horses4courses]

i expected over $200k on that one, it must be the economy, the horse only got $50k

As you saw, he won under wraps.
Only 3 horses out of 5 took any win action.
They finished at least a furlong ahead of the other pair.

All it takes, though, is a mishap of some sort, and you have huge mutuels.
I like taking a stand against the jumpers..... :ThmbUp:

[lamboguy]

As you saw, he won under wraps.
Only 3 horses out of 5 took any win action.
They finished at least a furlong ahead of the other pair.

All it takes, though, is a mishap of some sort, and you have huge mutuels.
I like taking a stand against the jumpers..... :ThmbUp:
you will get mishaps in this game, it happens about once in every 85 horses that run, a successful dq happens about equally, and i rider falls off once every 600 horses.

[Robert Goren]

SUF R-1 jumper ran in so did my horse :4: paid $2.20
SUF R-5 jumper ran in but my horse :4: did not
2 races
2 jumpers both cashed
2 bets
1 cash loss of $1.80
Totals
12 races
5 of 6 jumpers cashed
4 of 6 bets cashed
profit of $3.60 on $2 bets
I think I might need to a better of job of picking the horse I bet on. But it is still a very small sample.

[Robert Goren]

22:45 MNR R-10 #1 may qualify I just checked that races and with a ML of 3/5 it does. I guess I need to have cans of Pepsi before I start looking at overnights. Thank you so much.

[Robert Goren]

MNR R-10 Jumper won My horse the :10: ran third paying an amazing $3.40 that cut my loss for the day to $0.40

new to date numbers
13 races
7 jumpers 6 cashed
5 of 7 of my bets cashed
$14 wagered profit $5.00
On to tomorrow.

[olddaddy]

This is an amusing time killer, I am now involved. Thanks. I had the :10: also, I was shocked when I saw the pay off.

[Robert Goren]

This is an amusing time killer, I am now involved. Thanks. I had the :10: also, I was shocked when I saw the pay off.You are welcome.

[Robert Goren]

I found 2 races for today

07:25 MNR R-2
08:29 PEN R-7
Please feel free check and see if there are any others. And don't be shy about posting something else that might help locate a possible jumper race.

[Canarsie]

I'll gladly post the BJA sent to my phone if you want. The problem is they usually come between 10-20 minutes before the race you will have to be constantly logged on here.

You won't get them when I'm not near a desktop but otherwise all I have to do is copy and paste it by going to the twitter site.

Your call.

[teddy]

Some one should post as the bridge jumper to see what happens instead!

[Robert Goren]

I'll gladly post the BJA sent to my phone if you want. The problem is they usually come between 10-20 minutes before the race you will have to be constantly logged on here.

You won't get them when I'm not near a desktop but otherwise all I have to do is copy and paste it by going to the twitter site.

Your call.Thats is not necessary. The idea of limiting the possible races was to get off the computer some of the time. ( I know it seems like I am posting here 24/7, but that is not quite the case) If this test proves to be profitable, I will go to Walmart for a phone or bite the bullet pay for it from Sprint. My contract is up in August and it will probably take at least that long to get a good feel for this idea. But thanks for offer of help. I really do appreciate it a lot.

[teddy]

atr pro can text u with the info but u have to leave the computer running and let it watch pools all day

[Robert Goren]

Just to be clear, if you want to post them in this thread, I do not have a problem with that.

[Robert Goren]

atr pro can text u with the info but u have to leave the computer running and let it watch pools all day A very interesting program. At some point it might be an option. I am trying very hard not to get the cart before the horse here. Thanks for pointing it out.

[olddaddy]

No show wagering on the 7th at pen.

[BombsAway Bob]

I found 2 races for today

07:25 MNR R-2
08:29 PEN R-7
Please feel free check and see if there are any others. And don't be shy about posting something else that might help locate a possible jumper race.
2nd @MOuntaineer is now OFF THE TURF.. fave was 1/2 in last on dirt here.

[Robert Goren]

MNR R-2 The jumper won My horse the:1: ran secon and paid $2.40 to show With no show wager on the Pen race, I am done for the night.
To date totals
14 races
8 jumpers with 7 cashs
8 bets with 6 cashs
$16.00 bet Profit $5.40
On to tomorrow.

[Robert Goren]

A couple of races from the fine people at Suffolk Downs

01:39 SUF R-3
03:26 SUF R-7

[Helles]

Following with interest Robert.

[Robert Goren]

Following with interest Robert. thanks. I am going to look at least 100 jumpers before making a decision if it is worthwhile. The question was never about doing it but if enough other people interested enough to keep posting it. so far there has been.

[Robert Goren]

SUF R-3 jumper horse won My horse:1: ran second paid 2.20 to show
SUF R-7 no jumper
to date totals
16 races
9 jumpers 8 cashed
9 bets 7 cashed
$18.00 wagered $5.60 profit
See Jack Paar quote below
on to tomorrow.

[woodtoo]

Arlington race10 #9 90% show pool 15 mn. to post 1/9

[woodtoo]

playing 1 and 4 wps
81% 1 mtp

[woodtoo]

winnah #9

[horses4courses]

There probably are not going to be many spots for jumping today.
You really need those 10% minimum show return tracks like Suffolk and Mountaineer.
I guess Charles Town is the same, and runs tonight, but the races look wide open there.

The potential races I see for today are these:

1:29ET RD R2 #2
2:04ET FL R3 #1
3:25ET RD R6 #5
4:19ET FL R8 #4

Be lucky to get a single play out of those, but you never know!

Good luck!

[Robert Goren]

I usually don't look at that those tracks because the avg handle is too small, but since there are no other spots today I will look and see if they get a large enough show pool on jumpers there to consider. Thanks for posting. I need all the help I can get. .

[Robert Goren]

There probably are not going to be many spots for jumping today.
You really need those 10% minimum show return tracks like Suffolk and Mountaineer.
I guess Charles Town is the same, and runs tonight, but the races look wide open there.

Good luck!One thing you probably need is "net pool pricing" I don't know if there are any tracks who still don't use it. Perhaps someone does and will post an answer.

[Robert Goren]

RD R-2 had some action before the vet scratched it. I always hate to a vet scratch a horse I was going to be against.

[duncan04]

Hollywood r1- #6 Roar Baby Roar has 91.1% of the show pool with 6 minutes to post

[Robert Goren]

Although there were a couple of jumpers races yesterday, my method of identifying then had none. Today I found 4.
02:25 LAD R-1
05:38 WO R-8
08:30 CD R-6
10:20 MNR R-9

[Robert Goren]

LAD R-1 The jumper won. My horse the :5: was DQ'd from second. So it goes

[InTheRiver68]

Me, too. Dammit.

- InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

WO R-8 Jumper ran third. My horse the:2: won withstood an inquiry and paid $2.10 to show.

[mistergee]

wasnt there a losing jumper in today crc race 10?

[Robert Goren]

CD R-6 no jumper
MNR R-9 jumper ran third my horse the :4: ran a bad fourth
A bad day
4 races
3 jumpers 3 cashed
3 bets 1 cash
$6.00 bet loss $3.90
Totals
20 races
12 jumpers 11 cashed
12 bets 8 cashed
$24 bet profit $1.70
still black, but barely
On to tomorrow.

[Sly7449]

Greetings,

Was there a Bridge Jumper at EVD tonight Fri 24 Jun for the 9th Race?

Oh, those Payoffs for the Show spot were rather nice.

Hope that both Jockeys and Horses are O.K.

[InTheRiver68]

I didn't see the race, but it looked like it was quite the odd circumstance. They probably shouldn't have had show wagering in the first place, considering there were only four horses.

The pools weren't that big to begin with. The #4 had $8,174 out of a total of $8,883.

In the Moutaineer race, where the #1 finished third, the #1 had $167,500 out of $183,500 (91.2%). If the #4 had made it up to third and the #1 had finished out of the money, the prices would have been $17.20, $44.60, and $21.60. Woulda been nice.

- InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

I didn't see the race, but it looked like it was quite the odd circumstance. They probably shouldn't have had show wagering in the first place, considering there were only four horses.

The pools weren't that big to begin with. The #4 had $8,174 out of a total of $8,883.

In the Moutaineer race, where the #1 finished third, the #1 had $167,500 out of $183,500 (91.2%). If the #4 had made it up to third and the #1 had finished out of the money, the prices would have been $17.20, $44.60, and $21.60. Woulda been nice.

- InTheRiver68At MNR, the last time look the win pool had 6k in it and the show pool had 120+ k. Did the win pool ever get to 10K? That race was unreal.

[Vinman]

2-5 Ever Always out of the money a few minutes ago at Monmouth in a five horse field. Winner paid $8.00 to win, $14.00 to show. Anyone take a little shot against the fav?

76K of 81K was bet to show on Ever Always, who'd won big recently off a TWO YEAR layoff. Incredible what people will do with large sums of money.
3rd finisher paid $38 to show.

Vinman

[InTheRiver68]

At MNR, the last time look the win pool had 6k in it and the show pool had 120+ k. Did the win pool ever get to 10K? That race was unreal.
$18,634 in the win, $7,649 in the place.

- InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

$18,634 in the win, $7,649 in the place.

- InTheRiver68 the normal show pool without a jumper for those numbers would be about 5k.

[Robert Goren]

Well, I have done this for a week and I have surmised a few things. I have 12 jumpers so at this rate I have about 7 more weeks to go to get to 100. I am missing some maybe as many as half with the even money M/L. There maybe some tracks that will never put up an even money M/L. In couple more weeks I do some checking on that and see what their bottom M/L is and if it produces a key to jumpers. There also might be a case for adding a few tracks like fingers lakes. I am also looking at jumper posted here by other people to see if I can find away to predict them in advance. So keep posting please even if it is after the race is over. The one surprise is that I only missed one bet because the jumper money came in late. On to today. I found two races.
01:12 SUF R-2
04:19 LS R-9

[horses4courses]

Well, I have done this for a week and I have surmised a few things. I have 12 jumpers so at this rate I have about 7 more weeks to go to get to 100. I am missing some maybe as many as half with the even money M/L. There maybe some tracks that will never put up an even money M/L. In couple more weeks I do some checking on that and see what their bottom M/L is and if it produces a key to jumpers. There also might be a case for adding a few tracks like fingers lakes. I am also looking at jumper posted here by other people to see if I can find away to predict them in advance. So keep posting please even if it is after the race is over. The one surprise is that I only missed one bet because the jumper money came in late. On to today. I found two races.
01:12 SUF R-2
04:19 LS R-9

Enjoying this thread, but haven't had much time to play lately.
You mention missing a race due to late action by the b'jumper.
It happens, I know, and it always strikes me as odd.

It's either that they want to keep it a big secret, or they're ashamed of what they are doing. Surely it's in their best interest to get the money down well ahead of time so other money can come in to offset their play?

I guess, with the volume they play, they know they will only get the minimum payoff, so they don't care.
Gamblers are strange creatures, though........

[InTheRiver68]

Some jumpers you can see coming a mile away, and some don't make themselves apparent until the scratches come in. Scanning the morning line will generally only get you about two-thirds of the bet-against opportunities.

Of course, on first glance I'm looking for the classic 4/5 shot in a six-horse field, but then I'll go over the list again looking for seven- or eight horse fields where there are two 8/5 or 2:1-type M/L's, and I'll mark them to have a look later after the early scratches are in.

For example, today I'd watch Churchill's 1st and 2nd. In the first, if the :4: or :1: get scratched, that will draw some show money. Suffolk's 4th has some long odds for such a short field; if one or two of the semi-short-priced entrants gets scratched, the :1: could look tempting.

While I'm here, I shoud say that you *should* look at the smaller tracks like Finger or Emerald or Prairie, but recognize that the money on those tracks probably won't show up until near post, and you should be willing to commit to your pick even if the jumpers haven't yet shown themselves. I remember a race last year (edit: actually, 2009) at Emerald where one standout horse in a large (11-horse) field took nearly all the show money. It was actually tweeted, but the bulk of the money didn't show up until post. The heavy favorite finished out of the money and each show price was over $100. (Found it! (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=752969&highlight=emerald#post752969))

- InTheRiver68

[ranchwest]

Is there a way to get it sent to my computer? I do not have a texting plan for my cell phone.

You can log into Twitter on a computer. Twitter is not a text, it requires internet.

[Robert Goren]

Enjoying this thread, but haven't had much time to play lately.
You mention missing a race due to late action by the b'jumper.
It happens, I know, and it always strikes me as odd.

It's either that they want to keep it a big secret, or they're ashamed of what they are doing. Surely it's in their best interest to get the money down well ahead of time so other money can come in to offset their play?

I guess, with the volume they play, they know they will only get the minimum payoff, so they don't care.
Gamblers are strange creatures, though........If I was betting that kind of money, I would want to get it in early since the timing won't effect the final odds. I be scared that something would go wrong and I wouldn't get my bet in.

[lamboguy]

there was one last night at the mountain they bet $180,000 on from the rail that was lucky to get third because the rest of the field stunk so bad he staggered home. i bet $500 to show on the $12.00 winner and got back $2.20. before the race i thought the winner would have had the $180,000 to show on him instead of the Dorechenko horse.

[InTheRiver68]

Some jumpers you can see coming a mile away, and some don't make themselves apparent until the scratches come in. Scanning the morning line will generally only get you about two-thirds of the bet-against opportunities.

Of course, on first glance I'm looking for the classic 4/5 shot in a six-horse field, but then I'll go over the list again looking for seven- or eight horse fields where there are two 8/5 or 2:1-type M/L's, and I'll mark them to have a look later after the early scratches are in.
How odd. Exactly this thing just happened today at Suffolk, in the first race.

In the morning line, there was a 7/5 and a 5/2, and then everyone else was 9/2 or higher. The 5/2 scratched, leaving the 7/5 as a potential target for bridgejumpers.

The 7/5 went off at 3/5, with a modest $2,420 out of $3,326 (72.8%) in the show pool. He ran off the board, and the three in-the-money horses paid $7.20, $8.80, and $25.80.

- InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

The time for the LS race is 06:19, not 04:19. I am sorry for any problems that may have caused.

[Roghaltz]

There was just a jumper in HOL R1 (105K out of 124K). Jump horse won.

[Robert Goren]

How odd. Exactly this thing just happened today at Suffolk, in the first race.

In the morning line, there was a 7/5 and a 5/2, and then everyone else was 9/2 or higher. The 5/2 scratched, leaving the 7/5 as a potential target for bridgejumpers.

The 7/5 went off at 3/5, with a modest $2,420 out of $3,326 (72.8%) in the show pool. He ran off the board, and the three in-the-money horses paid $7.20, $8.80, and $25.80.

- InTheRiver68 That shows even when there not a jumper, a profitable situation may occur. When I get to feeling a little better, I may look in to those situations.

[Robert Goren]

LS R-9 jumper won my horse the :1: ran fourth

totals to date
22 races
13 jumpers 12 cashed
13 bets only 8 cashed
$26.00 wagered loss $0.30
on to tomorrow

[lamboguy]

you are playing alot of the lower rebate tracks to bet against the bridgejumpers, if you play the higher rebate tracks you will do fine.

[bigmack]

That Iowa Derby was laughable.

[Robert Goren]

you are playing alot of the lower rebate tracks to bet against the bridgejumpers, if you play the higher rebate tracks you will do fine. I know. I use Twinspires so at this point I am not worried about rebates. I am just trying figure out what feasable and what is not. I have a way to go on that yet. I am very small bettor and don't ever expect to make a lot money betting horses. but it might be nice to find something doesn't take a lot of work and still showed a some profit at the end of the month that I could kill a couple hours of the day with. This a project as of right now, trying figure out somethings
A question though. Do you get a rebate jumper races? Do you get one some times and not others? Do you get when jumpers runs out, but not when it runs in?

[lamboguy]

I know. I use Twinspires so at this point I am not worried about rebates. I am just trying figure out what feasable and what is not. I have a way to go on that yet. I am very small bettor and don't ever expect to make a lot money betting horses. but it might be nice to find something doesn't take a lot of work and still showed a some profit at the end of the month that I could kill a couple hours of the day with. This a project as of right now, trying figure out somethings
A question though. Do you get a rebate jumper races? Do you get one some times and not others? Do you get when jumpers runs out, but not when it runs in?
as a rule, if you bet on the heavy bet horses these days and they take more than 35% of the total pool they will not pay a rebate. i am not sure if that is entirely right either but that is their rules. what has happened to me is that i bet alot of horses for small amounts like $20 wps, often times i i wind up with my show bet on a negetive pool. i have no way of knowing if it is negetive at 6:30 a.m. either. so some adw's will not penalise me, and others will for that. if you are dealing with larger adw's they always get the breakage and that is supposed to help them with the minus pools,. the problem today is that they are getting heavy duty minus pool action because the host tracks actually go out of their way to promote bridgejumping due to small handles. the point being that people will come from all over to bet into negetive pools because they show a profit doing it. adw's don't need customer's that target negetive pools, they lose money on it. years ago tracks could handle huge influx's of heavy duty minus pools because it was a very small percentage of their handles. today that part of the betting game has grown. the player is playing into the smallest takeouts these days and adw's are out there footing the bill.

when i bet against the negetive pools i get a rebate even if the heavy bet horse comes in. there was one last night that got bet at the mountain 9th that blew up and i went against it. i don't go against every bridgejump, and i have no problem betting on a bridgejump either. it turns out to be a segment of wagering on horses in the year 2011. nothing ever remains the same and things do change. i bet mostly other things than negetive pools, the only thing constant to what i do is i hardly ever bet tricks. i leave the tricks to all these sharp guys that have computerised models and strong pace and speed figures. i do things the old fashioned way, i work hard to bet these horses and take lots of notes.

[Robert Goren]

Thanks, lamboguy.

[InTheRiver68]

For today:

LS 3 (3:31): 4/5 ML in a six-horse field
LOU 4 (3:45): watch for a scratch or two to make it a target
LOU 5 (4:12): 4/5 ML shot
LS 5 (4:27): 4/5 ML in an eight-horse field
HOL 8 (7:44): two low-odds entrants in a six-horse field. If one scratches, the other will get hammered
EME 7 (8:09): 7/5 in a five-horse field ... but probably weak pools
MTR 7 (9:30): 4/5 in an eight-horse field, $2.20 prices, will probably be the big bettors' only shot of the day
MTR 8 (9:55): almost missed this one: 3/5 ML in an 8-horse field

- InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

7 possible races today 2 of which are during the series finale of Criminal Intent. Bah Humbug!
3:31 LS R-3
4:12 LAD R-5
4:27 LS R-5
4:48 Pleasanton R-2 entry
7:00 MNR R-1
9:30 MNR R-7
9:55 MNR R-6

[Robert Goren]

For today:

LS 3 (3:31): 4/5 ML in a six-horse field
LOU 4 (3:45): watch for a scratch or two to make it a target
LOU 5 (4:12): 4/5 ML shot
LS 5 (4:27): 4/5 ML in an eight-horse field
HOL 8 (7:44): two low-odds entrants in a six-horse field. If one scratches, the other will get hammered
EME 7 (8:09): 7/5 in a five-horse field ... but probably weak pools
MTR 7 (9:30): 4/5 in an eight-horse field, $2.20 prices, will probably be the big bettors' only shot of the day
MTR 8 (9:55): almost missed this one: 3/5 ML in an 8-horse field

- InTheRiver68THANKS

[InTheRiver68]

I didn't see that Pleasanton entry. If both halves run, that's going to be the day's big target.

- InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

I have been think about net pool pricing. There may be a % on horse that you don't want go above when betting against a jumper. Right now all I have got from it is a headache.

[InTheRiver68]

I have been think about net pool pricing. There may be a % on horse that you don't want go above when betting against a jumper. Right now all I have got from it is a headache.
Give me some specifics, and I'll run some numbers. But as a rule, I'd say you don't want to bet any more than 1/2 of 1% of the total show pool. Against a garden-variety jumper (90% of show pool), if the jumper is in the money, you'll lower the price on *your* horse by a dime. If the jumper runs out, you'll lower the price on your horse by about $2.

By the way, BEL just had a surprise jumper on a 7/5 ML shot in today's 3YO Fillies Stakes. #2 had 104k out of 128k. It was a 6-horse field, but one of the middle-odded horses got scratched. She won.

- InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

You miss understood me, I mean the % all ready in the pool on the non jumper horse.

[Robert Goren]

Did you bet the LAD r-4? nice return on the:6:

[Zydeco]

97% on the entry early at Pleasonton. 19,400 out of 19,750

[Zydeco]

145,000 of 152,000 at post time

[Robert Goren]

LAD R-5 no jumper

LS R-3 no jumper
LS R-5 no jumper
Pleasanton R-2 jumper ran 1-2 my horse :5: ran fourth. upon further reflection, betting against the jumper entry there was not a good bet .

[Zydeco]

i played the :5: also. The :3: did pay 6.60 though. which isn't too bad.

[Prairie Bettor]

LAD R-5 no jumper

Pleasanton R-2 jumper ran 1-2 my horse :5: ran fourth. upon further reflection, betting against the jumper entry there was not a good bet .

I thought the :5: was a clear second choice, and would've paid at least $2.20 maybe $2.40 if he would've gotten up for 3rd. Which he almost did. Just a bad beat.

On the other hand the odds of the entry running out were probably 30-1 at least, which would make the 1-20 show bet a good play. That being said, IMO, the correct bet was place on the entry, not show. Something crazy would've had to happen for the entry to run exactly 3rd. So the increased risk was not there, but the reward was.

Mutuals:
1st
1-$2.60 $2.40 $2.10

2nd
1-$2.60 $2.40 $2.10


3rd
3- - - $6.60

[Robert Goren]

MNR R-1 and MNR R-8 possible jumper horses have scratched.

[horses4courses]

Plunging on the #4 Cozi Rosie at HOL (15 mins to post)
96% of $109k show pool

Take your pick on the #1 or #5 if you want to stand against her.

Good luck!

[horses4courses]

Plunging on the #4 Cozi Rosie at HOL (15 mins to post)
96% of $109k show pool

Take your pick on the #1 or #5 if you want to stand against her.

Good luck!

Show wagering cancelled due to late scratch at the gate.

[Robert Goren]

MNR R-7 no jumper
What started out with 7 possible jumpers lost 2 because the horses scratched 4 more did not have a jumper.
totals to dates
29 races
14 jumpers 13 cashed
14 bets 8 cashed
$28.00 wagered loss $2.30

[lamboguy]

MNR R-7 no jumper
What started out with 7 possible jumpers lost 2 because the horses scratched 4 more did not have a jumper.
totals to dates
29 races
14 jumpers 13 cashed
14 bets 8 cashed
$28.00 wagered loss $2.30i think you are doing this the right way handicapping the horse to be a go against horse. when rich perloff does it he uses every other horse in the race and that method will certainly lose more money than if you bet on the bridgejump horse every time. in essence what perloff is doing by going against the bridgejump is bridgejumping himself he is putting up alot of money with no chance of winning in the long run.

[Robert Goren]

To me it is painfully obvious that the bridge jumper horse runs in the money far too often to bet all the other horses in the race. At some point I am going to have to change the way I handicap the show horse. I have been a win bettor all my life and am geared for that. Picking a horse to run in the money may require putting a slightly difference emphasis on some factors.

[Canarsie]

i think you are doing this the right way handicapping the horse to be a go against horse. when rich perloff does it he uses every other horse in the race and that method will certainly lose more money than if you bet on the bridgejump horse every time. in essence what perloff is doing by going against the bridgejump is bridgejumping himself he is putting up alot of money with no chance of winning in the long run.


While I don't like the idea of betting every horse in a race against a bridge jumper there is LESS THAN ZERO chance of winning putting up a lot of money betting on them (BJ) every race.

I would be surprised if there was ever a consecutive streak (all tracks included) of 20 BJ winning. Even if it has happened my guess is it would be one out of a hundred.

Anyone have data to prove I'm an idiot? :lol:

[Robert Goren]

I will say this, so far in my sample the jumper horse has cashed more than I expected going in.

[lamboguy]

While I don't like the idea of betting every horse in a race against a bridge jumper there is LESS THAN ZERO chance of winning putting up a lot of money betting on them (BJ) every race.

I would be surprised if there was ever a consecutive streak (all tracks included) of 20 BJ winning. Even if it has happened my guess is it would be one out of a hundred.

Anyone have data to prove I'm an idiot? :lol:in today's world you are right. some of these races they are betting at mountaineer have less than a 75% chance of reaching the board.these days. but i do notice that there is a large hedge on against the bridgejump.

yesterday in the second race at pleasanton there was an entry, the only way that entry does not hit the board is if those 2 horses collide with each other at some point of the race. there was only $212,000 bet to show on that entry, it should have been something like $212 million on that one.

[Robert Goren]

I have decide to add a few tracks to look at. basically any track any track with avg handle of 10k that twinspires covers. today we have 3 races.
12:45 SUF R-1
07:50 MNR R-3
09:30 MNR R-7
I have also decided to look at races with a 6/5 or 7/5 M/L and only one other horse below 5/1 M/L The first number in () is the favorite. the second is the other horse below 5/1. The idea is to find a race jn which the second horse scratches
02:04 FL R-3 (5) (3)
04:30 PRM R-1 ( 1 entry) (3)
05:23 PRM R-3 (5) (7)
Then there is the MNR R-8 which has a 6/5 ml horse but no other horse below 5/1 on the M/L

[lamboguy]

I have decide to add a few tracks to look at. basically any track any track with avg handle of 10k that twinspires covers. today we have 3 races.
12:45 SUF R-1
07:50 MNR R-3
09:30 MNR R-7
I have also decided to look at races with a 6/5 or 7/5 M/L and only one other horse below 5/1 M/L The first number in () is the favorite. the second is the other horse below 5/1. The idea is to find a race jn which the second horse scratches
02:04 FL R-3 (5) (3)
04:30 PRM R-1 ( 1 entry) (3)
05:23 PRM R-3 (5) (7)
Then there is the MNR R-8 which has a 6/5 ml horse but no other horse below 5/1 on the M/Lyou can get large show bets at any track in the world, someone is going to find it. it is money and people are always going to go after it. but remember this, while most of the bridgjump races are legit good bets, there are lots that someone is in those pools hedging them and hoping the bridgejump horse blows up

[justdmbobbo]

I know it's a harness track and not very significant, but there were some pretty weird BJ's at Running Aces last night. I can't find the total pools now, but they were well under 4-5K.

Some pretty big profits were to be had even by betting $2 to win on the whole field other than the BJ.

Race 8 ended :3:-:5: and the :3: was at 35-1, longest shot by far in the field, but an inquiry due to blocking reversed the official finish to :5:-:3:.

After reading some of this thread I've been casually picking some races to go against BJ's and that one would have been fun to hit. :bang:

[Robert Goren]

The first at PRM has 98% of 8.8 k in the show pool. 15 MTP the win pool has $402 in it. It is an entry.

[Robert Goren]

I bet the jumper

[Robert Goren]

The jumper won and the other part of the entry ran fourth Paid $2.20 164k show pool. the jumper horse had 95% of it. The win pool was 6k.

[Robert Goren]

The M/L favorite in MNR r-7 is a first time starter.

[Robert Goren]

No jumpers in the 3 even money races. Only the entry at PRM in the possibles was a jumper but the second M/L did scratch, besides I bet the jumper so I won't count it.
on to tomorrow

[Robert Goren]

Only 2 jumpers races. The first race of the day and the last race of the day.
12:25 PARX R-1
10:45 MNR R-10
5 possibles with a scratch
02:31 FL R-4 (1 entry) (6)
05:23 PRM R-3 (6)(7)
05:50 PRM R-4 (5)(10)
07:50 MNR R-3 (8)(3)
08:15 MNR R-4 (3) (1)

[bob60566]

Thank you bridge jumpers.
Mac:) :) :) :) :)

[Robert Goren]

MNR R-10 Some late momey on the :10: (about 70% of the pool) but I passed the race. The horse :4: I was looking at ran fourth . The :10: was no where to be found. Big numbers if you had the right horse. No jumpers again today. On to tomorrow

[teddy]

$ no way that horse loses

[Robert Goren]

Only 1 race today
2:04 BEL R-3

Possibles with a scratch
1:12 SUF R-2 (7) (5)
2:36 DEL R-4 (3) (5)
3:56 SUF R-8 (2) (6)

[lamboguy]

in the 8th at sulfolk, the vitale horse ran as tough as nails last time out and got beat at the wire by the stablemate. in the stretch that horse should be so far ahead of the field that by some some stretch of the imagination 1 horse in the race might might catch up to him late, but to find a total of 3 is just a dream. you are looking for a stumble out of the gate or a jockey fall off on that one.

[Robert Goren]

in the 8th at sulfolk, the vitale horse ran as tough as nails last time out and got beat at the wire by the stablemate. in the stretch that horse should be so far ahead of the field that by some some stretch of the imagination 1 horse in the race might might catch up to him late, but to find a total of 3 is just a dream. you are looking for a stumble out of the gate or a jockey fall off on that one.or what no one likes to say, a break down.

[InTheRiver68]

Only 1 race today
2:04 BEL R-3
There's a scratch in the race (#4 -- Cat Sweep, 10/1), so no show wagering.

- InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

Possibles with a scratch
1:12 SUF R-2 (7) (5)
The #7 (3/2) scratched, leaving the #5 (8/5) and five other horses at 6/1 or longer. I'm not looking for it to garner much attention, but maybe someone will throw $5k on the #5 and make it interesting.

-InTheRiver68

[Roghaltz]

They are jumping at BEL R3 in the place pool. There was a minor jump in SUF R3 in the show pool.

[Robert Goren]

No jumper in my races again today.:(
On to tomorrow.

[buffaloxp]

betting against bridgejumpers or flow bridgejumper ,has noway to make money,because you bet one horse,the bridgejumper bet 2 to 4 horse on the jumper race,l work for one of the asian syndicate before, i know how they work , and how to play the game,

[Robert Goren]

betting against bridgejumpers or flow bridgejumper ,has noway to make money,because you bet one horse,the bridgejumper bet 2 to 4 horse on the jumper race,l work for one of the asian syndicate before, i know how they work , and how to play the game,Please explain how betting 2 to 4 horses including the jumper horse works.

[lamboguy]

i didn't know we had "asian syndicates" in our show pools these days. thanks for enlightening me. it certainly explains everything to me why its so tough to win these days!

[Robert Goren]

A couple of races
04:25 RD R-8
11:19 LS R-9
Possible with a scratch
10:51 R-8 (10) (3)

[teddy]

Interesting math equations on the jump with 2 extra horses. I thought u had to bet all the horses to do that. But u should make more than hitting the all. I did notice lots of play on second favs. Try it on paper.

[Robert Goren]

No jumpers on my race again today

on to tomorrow.

[Robert Goren]

5 races today
5:00 CD R-1
7:30 PRM R-1 entry
8:31 LS R-3
8:59 LS R-4
9:20 MNR R-7
Posslble with a scratch
1:02 FL R-2 (5)(4)
1:29 FL R-3 (6)(2)
4:23 WO R-6 (5) (1)
5:45 RD R-7 (8) (10)
6:01 AP R-1 (1) (3)
7:30 LS R-1 (6) (1)
12:44 EMD R-8 (12) (9)

[Robert Goren]

The EMD race is well past my bed time, so I might have to pass it.

[lamboguy]

i just caught a 2-5 shot at river downs 3rd that paid 2.80 to win and 7.00 to show.

thank you mr. akavano

[duncan04]

i just caught a 2-5 shot at river downs 3rd that paid 2.80 to win and 7.00 to show.

thank you mr. akavano


Those show prices were nice!

[rastajenk]

Announcer Pete said as they were loading there was $10,000 to show on the :3:, which was 30-1 on the morning line and only somewhat lower at the break. With a 2-5 easy winner in the field (the :5: ), it seems more likely that someone made a grievous mistake more than a bold bet. :eek:

[lamboguy]

Announcer Pete said as they were loading there was $10,000 to show on the :3:, which was 30-1 on the morning line and only somewhat lower at the break. With a 2-5 easy winner in the field (the :5: ), it seems more likely that someone made a grievous mistake more than a bold bet. :eek:
i am not positive about that one,but my opinion is that was no mistake

[showbet]

Announcer Pete said as they were loading there was $10,000 to show on the :3:
Yeah, the 3 horse actually had 90% of the show pool just before the off, and wound up with "only" 75.5% of the pool. Speaking selfishly (and greedily), I wish he hadn't mentioned all of the show money on the 3, because I think the horses that ended up hitting the board would have paid more if he hadn't alerted everyone a good minute before the start of the race. That said, it was a nice thing for him to do for the bettors.

[showbet]

thank you mr. akavano
Who is that, if I may ask?

i am not positive about that one,but my opinion is that was no mistake
Can you tell us why you think this?

[Robert Goren]

CD R-1 after 4 days of no jumpers there is finally one. It finished second to my bet :5: My bet paid $2.10

[Robert Goren]

PRM R-1 The entry was jump on as expected I bet it too. One of them won and $2.20 to show. It was one the safest bet around although when dealing those trainers you never know. Most of them are escapees from the Nebraska circuit, so I know not to trust them too far.

[Robert Goren]

LS R-4 The :6: Has 12,555 of 12,658 on it 20 MTP

[buffaloxp]

river down 3r is one of the example asian syndicate bet type, bet 1x on :3: to lose. bet 3x on :4: and 5x on :5: to the offshoe book, :5: and :4: is a 1 ,2 ml fv

[Robert Goren]

river down 3r is one of the example asian syndicate bet type, bet 1x on :3: to lose. bet 3x on :4: and 5x on :5: to the offshoe book, :5: and :4: is a 1 ,2 ml fvWhy would an offshore book take bets from these jokers more than once? I can't believe an offshore book would be that dumb. But maybe they are.
I know when I look into off shore books several years ago, they limited the amount of action you could get based on the size of the track. A track like River Downs would very limited. I figured they did that to prevent this sort of thing.

[Robert Goren]

to date totals
41 races
18 jumpers 17 cashed
17 bets against 10 cashed
$34.00 wagered loss $3.60
1 jumper entry bet 1 cash
$2.00 wagered profit $0.20
on to tomorrow (actually today)

[showbet]

There were some pretty nice payoffs in last night's 9th race at Mountaineer. The 1/5 favorite, who had 87% of the show pool bet on him, finished last.

[Robert Goren]

A busy day ahead with 8 races and 9 possibles. there also in there a bunch races with entries before scratches. PIN is pleasanton
2:31 FL R-1 entry
4:15 PIN R-1
5:00 CLN R-1
5:25 CLN R-2
5:45 PIN R-4
6:09 NP R-8 entry
7:56 PRM R-2 entry
10:20 MNR R-9
Possible with a scratch
2:36 DEL R-4 (10) (2)
3:03 LS R-2 (3) (4)
4:31 HOL R-2 (5) (3)
4:45 PIN R-2 (6) (1)
4:51 DEL R-9 (1 entry)(2)
5:16 BEL R-9 (7) (2)
5:23 LS R-7 (10) (8)
5:28 AP R-2 (2) (3,4,5,6,8)
And last but not least a two entry special from Louisiana
9:37 EVG R-7(1 entry) (2 entry)

[teddy]

Did you miss the MTN horse? That race sshould have put u in the black big time.

[Robert Goren]

Did you miss the MTN horse? That race sshould have put u in the black big time.Yes, after the seventh I closed up the shop for night.

[Robert Goren]

PIN R-1 jumper ran out my horse:1: won paid $27.00 to show I hope some of you had a horse in this race.

[showbet]

PIN R-1 jumper ran out my horse:1: won paid $27.00 to show I hope some of you had a horse in this race.
Way to go, Robert.

#3 had 92.5% of the show pool and finished 5th.

[Robert Goren]

CLN R-1 jumper ran second my horse:1: ran third paid $2.20

CLN R-2 jumper won my horse :8: ran second paid $2.80

[Robert Goren]

Very nice day
8 races
3 jumpers 2 cashed
3 bets 3 cashed
$6.00 wagered profit $26.00
to date totals
21 jumpers 19 cashed
20 bets 13 cashed
$40.00 wagered profit $22.40
1 jumper bet
$2.00 wagered profit $0.20

[InTheRiver68]

Sorry I missed out on the last couple of days.

Today, I'll be watching:
BEL 9 (5:17pm) #6 is 1/5 in a seven-horse field. It's the Bed O' Roses stakes, and is likely to attract a TON in the show pool.
MTR 1 (7:00pm) #2 is 4/5 in an eight-horse field with $2.20 pricing.
COL 9 (8:24pm) #5 is even money in a seven-horse field.

There are *at least* a score of other races where a scratch will attract show money on a 7/5 or 9/5 M/L horse.

- InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

The races races are being run a little later today.
5:17 BEL R-9
7;00 MNR R-1
7:25 LS R-4
8:24 CLN R-9
9:3O PRN R-9
Possibles with a scratch
4:00 HOL R-1 (5) (2)
4:19 FL R-8 (4) (5)
5:40 LAD R-8 (9) (7)

[Some_One]

You missed Wo R1, mini jumper of the fav with 73% of show pool in 5 horse field...won the race by a nose.............but got dq'ed to 4th for interference.

Finish Pgm # Horse Win Place Show
1 1 Jolson $7.60 $4.20 $5.40
2 2 Itzhoweeroll $7.10 $10.40
3 4 Jeffrey Armin $12.00

[Prairie Bettor]

12 minutes to the Belmont race 9

70k out of 75k now.

The weight handicap is a small concern, but I think she wins easily.

I'm with the jumpers on this one.

[InTheRiver68]

Woot!

- InTheRiver68

[Prairie Bettor]

12 minutes to the Belmont race 9

70k out of 75k now.

The weight handicap is a small concern, but I think she wins easily.

I'm with the jumpers on this one.


WOW!

She looked like ****!

[Robert Goren]

Bel R-9 Jumper ran out, but so did my horse the :7: Big numbers for those that pick a show horse

[InTheRiver68]

Nice payoffs, but I would have done a little better if the second and third favorites (the 2 and 7) had finished in the money. Put $200 in, got $2,300 back.

PLEASE, Robert Goren, please tell me you bet something other than the 2 and 7.

- InTheRiver68

edit: two minute behind you, RG ... sorry to hear it!

[slew101]

Nice hit.

Nice payoffs, but I would have done a little better if the second and third favorites (the 2 and 7) had finished in the money. Put $200 in, got $2,300 back.

PLEASE, Robert Goren, please tell me you bet something other than the 2 and 7.

- InTheRiver68

[davew]

I had the 2 and 7

[Robert Goren]

I had the 7, I feel like a fool but it ain't the first time

[showbet]

Another horse with 92.5% of the show pool finishes off the board.

[classhandicapper]

Bel R-9 Jumper ran out, but so did my horse the :7: Big numbers for those that pick a show horse

Heartbreaker:(

[Robert Goren]

The bad part is that we had a thread on the:7: last year and I knew she was POS.

[Stillriledup]

Tragedy in Elmont, play taps for the jumper.

[Robert Goren]

MNR R-1 Jumper ran second My horse :8: ran third and paid $2.40

[rgustafson]

Bel R-9 Jumper ran out, but so did my horse the :7: Big numbers for those that pick a show horse

In a small field like this(six other horses) isn,t the right play to bet all the other horses to show to at least some degree?

[Ocala Mike]

Answer to above question - YES! You don't want to mess around with handicapping, since you're interested in the whole race "coming apart" top to bottom.


Ocala Mike

[Robert Goren]

today's totals
5 races
2 jumpers 1 cashed
2 bets 1 cashed
$4.00 bet loss $1.60
Total to date
54 races
23 jumpers 20 cashed
22 bets 14 cashed
$44.00 wagered profit $20.80
1 jumper bet
$2.00 wagered profit $0.20
On to tomorrow

[Robert Goren]

In a small field like this(six other horses) isn,t the right play to bet all the other horses to show to at least some degree?I doubt it. The jumper horse runs in the money too often. Although when something happens liked it did today, I wonder a little bit.

[InTheRiver68]

That's one way to play it, yes, and when I have the bankroll, that's how I do it. Last year I had good luck playing that way, but since my bankrolls have run a little dry this year, I've been more selective about my bet-againsts.

When I bet that way, I aim to get back 75% of my bet money if the odds-on favorite hits the board. Today, if that had happened, I would have only gotten back a hair over half. And that's part of the problem with betting that way...you're guaranteed to have half or more of your tickets be losers.

But Robert Goren's method works, too. It's just harder to take when the odds-on favorite runs out and you don't happen to have a horse on the board.

- InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

May be on a slow day later in the week I might go back and see how betting all the non jumpers in a race would have turned out. Maybe, no promises though.

[iceknight]

ACutally depending on the area, sometimes Virgin mobile has excellent all you can text, unlimited data plans with usual voice at $45/mo.

[iceknight]

The bad part is that we had a thread on the:7: last year and I knew she was POS.

you mean on SPA CITY PRINCESS? Based on 'capping it seemed to me that she does well at the 1 mile, but performs poorly at 6-7F races, barely mustering a SHOW at times. However, then I did nt feel like wasting few dollars to SH on her this race.. but I would still list this as un-bee-live-able on a firm track day! That and that KID KATE coming second.. hahaha no way. It was a penny stock jump!

[InTheRiver68]

May be on a slow day later in the week I might go back and see how betting all the non jumpers in a race would have turned out. Maybe, no promises though.
Since you like concentrating on a single pick, you may want to consider how it would work for you if you put, say $2 on every horse (or every horse with a shot to hit the board), and then put $10 on your preferred pick.

- InTheRiver68

[iceknight]

you mean on SPA CITY PRINCESS? Based on 'capping it seemed to me that she does well at the 1 mile, but performs poorly at 6-7F races, barely mustering a SHOW at times. However, then I did nt feel like wasting few dollars to SH on her this race.. but I would still list this as un-bee-live-able on a firm track day! That and that KID KATE coming second.. hahaha no way. It was a penny stock jump!

My mistake, Just realized you meant Christine Dae.. I watched her replays and saw her win, but I felt she was "slow"... Then the other issue I could not figure out was that her wins were at Gulfstream dirt and I am still trying to figure out how to convert between tracks.. is there some number that quantifies different tracks across US?

[Robert Goren]

6 race today, I am not sure any of them is a really good candidate for a jumper, but here goes.
2:06 SUF R-4
2:33 RD R-4
3:05 RD R-5
3:25 CLN R-7
8:30 PRM R-9
8:45 EMD R-8
Possible with a scratch
12:55 CLN R-1 (4) (7)
2:35 CLN R-5 (8) (2)
3:00 SUF R-6 (5) (6)
7;02 FE R-7 (2) (9)

[Robert Goren]

today's totals
5 races
2 jumpers 1 cashed
2 bets 1 cashed
$4.00 bet loss $1.60
Total to date
54 races
23 jumpers 20 cashed
22 bets 14 cashed
$44.00 wagered profit $20.80
1 jumper bet
$2.00 wagered profit $0.20
On to tomorrowIn the 22 races in which I bet against the jumper, here the result if I had bet every non jumper horse
132 bets
$264.00 wagered
$476.40 returned
$212.40 profit

[Robert Goren]

SUF R-4 Jumper horse injured in the gate and scratched. no show wager now

[ranchwest]

RD-4, fav only took 33% of the pool (not official), but the fav ran last. I had the 1 to show -- won at 4/1. $4 to show.

[Ocala Mike]

The above poster got a nice show price, but I think we need to define qualifying races as THOSE RACES WHERE A SINGLE HORSE HAS 95% OR MORE OF THE SHOW POOL ON IT!


Ocala Mike

[Robert Goren]

The above poster got a nice show price, but I think we need to define qualifying races as THOSE RACES WHERE A SINGLE HORSE HAS 95% OR MORE OF THE SHOW POOL ON IT!


Ocala MikeActually 95% is pretty high. I use 80% as my level. The main thing is that show pool handle be well above the place pool handle. In close case I want it to be above the win pool handle as well. In extreme cases it gets to over 10 times the win pool handle. The only way I go below 80% is if the late money shoves me there. I actually am making small wagers now on these things to avoid second guessing if it is one or not. If I bet it gets counted, if I don't, it don't. I guess it just matter of how much time you want to sit around waiting for what you call a jumper race.
There seems to be a lot of races around the 70% range in case you are interested in those. The lower you go the less rewarding it when the jumper runs out. I am not sure where the line should be. At this point I am not interested in compiling the data to find that, but if someone else is, by all means, go for it.

[Robert Goren]

PRM R-9 Some how I screwed up the time and missed the race. The jumper did win so no great loss. The second choice horse which I usually bet ran third and paid $2.20. My rule no bet, so it doesn't count.

[Robert Goren]

Needless to say, I feel like a dumb ass for the second day in a row.

[Robert Goren]

the EMD r-8 has 7180 of 7472 bet on the :2: at 20 MTP

[Robert Goren]

EMD R-8 The jumper won, my horse:1: ran second and paid $2.40

[Robert Goren]

Total to date
59 races
24 jumpers 21 cashed
23 bets 15 cashed
$46.00 wagered profit $21.20
1 jumper bet
$2.00 wagered profit $0.20
betting all non jumper horses totals
$272.00 wagered
$481.60 cashed
On to tomorrow

[teddy]

Was almost all of that from one blow up when you bet the field to show. I remember the really huge one you guys missed because the second and third fav ran out.

[Robert Goren]

I have decided to bite the bullet and pay the $0.20 per texts from bridgejumper tweeter until my contract with sprint runs out. Just spent an hour setting it up because I am dumb. I hope I got it right. My user name there is tunks48.

[Robert Goren]

Only a couple of races today so hopefully I didn't screw it up.
5:23 PRM R-2
8:40 MNR R-5
Possibles with a scratch
2:09 DEL R-3 (5) (2)
3:29 FL R-6 (2) (5)
9:55 MNR R-8 (7) (4)

[Zydeco]

Prairie Meadows race 3 90% on #5

[Robert Goren]

PRM R-3 jumper ran second my horse the:4: ran third and paid $2.40

[Robert Goren]

MNR R-5 the horse stayed below 80%, so no bet

[Robert Goren]

Total to date
61 races
25 jumpers 22 cashed
24 bets 16 cashed
$48.00 wagered profit $21.60
1 jumper bet
$2.00 wagered profit $0.20
betting all non jumper horses totals
$282.00 wagered
$487.40 cashed
On to tomorrow

[maddog42]

Total to date
61 races
25 jumpers 22 cashed
24 bets 16 cashed
$48.00 wagered profit $21.60
1 jumper bet
$2.00 wagered profit $0.20
betting all non jumper horses totals
$282.00 wagered
$487.40 cashed
On to tomorrow

I have really enjoyed this thread, easily the best I have read . I don't want to dampen things, and I am sure you realize this, but over $160 of the "all non jumper Horses" money came from one race. If you kick out this race your ROI would be less than the 1 or 2 horse bets. Good luck and go gettem.

[Robert Goren]

Yes I know that and it raise some interesting questions that are beyond the scope of this study.
There no even money or less ML races today.
Possible with a scratch
3:25 RD R-6 (6) (1)
4:48 SUF R-10 (1) (2)
10:16 EVG R-9 (1 entry) (3)

[showbet]

I have really enjoyed this thread, easily the best I have read.
You might also enjoy this thread (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=58843). It contains many examples, especially in the latter half of the thread, of the bridge jump bet gone wrong.

[Robert Goren]

No jumper today

On to tomorrow

[teddy]

I have really enjoyed this thread, easily the best I have read . I don't want to dampen things, and I am sure you realize this, but over $160 of the "all non jumper Horses" money came from one race. If you kick out this race your ROI would be less than the 1 or 2 horse bets. Good luck and go gettem.

I tried to bring that up a while back. It could still be a good rebate play at some adw.

[Robert Goren]

It could be a good bet overall, but I have a feeling that is a better bet in race with large fields or with a very large % of the poll on the jumper horse. To prove it one way or the other will involve taking long hard look at races where there the jumper runs out. So far I have only 3 of those, so it is a bit premature, to say the least, to draw any conclusions. The one that should probably be done that I am not doing is keeping a record of the exact amounts of money being bet in the show pool of the jumper race. This started out as a project to identify jumper races ahead of time, but as is usually the case, it is creating a lot of questions that is beyond the scope of the original concept. But that is OK. Keep them coming. The idea of betting with or against bridge jumpers is one of the few areas of handicapping that has not be widely discussed or written about. It is probably the only area that there has not been a book written about.

[Robert Goren]

No even money or less M/L race to day
Possible with a scratch
5:51 PIN R-4 (6) (3)
7:55 CLN R-8 (4) (6)

[Ocala Mike]

Robert, this is obviously a very long thread, and I have not taken the time to go back and read every post. Since you are interested in these "jumper" races, you might want to consider the following if you haven't done so already (sorry if this was brought up earlier in the thread):

1. There is a certain subset of "jumper" races where it is mathematically possible to be GUARANTEED a profit by show betting EVERY RUNNER in the race (thanks to minimum payout rules). I believe the Hilda's Passion race might have qualified.

2. Are there any venues still left that "break to the dime" and provide a $2.20 minimum payoff, rather than a $2.10 minimum payoff?


Ocala Mike

[InTheRiver68]

1. There is a certain subset of "jumper" races where it is mathematically possible to be GUARANTEED a profit by show betting EVERY RUNNER in the race (thanks to minimum payout rules). I believe the Hilda's Passion race might have qualified.
Mike--

I took a look at these, too. They are few and far between, since the only way you can *guarantee* a profit is if the odds-on favorite has more than 90% of the pool. Because of that, there aren't enough races to make any sort of substantial living off of them.

Plus, you need to be very careful about how you distribute your wagers *against* the jumper, because if the odds-on favorite runs out (and you lose your bet-for wager), whether you make a profit will depend very heavily on whether you have enough money on the right horses.

The basic idea is to bet 10x on the jumper, and spread 1x among the other contenders. You can spread that last 1x evenly if you don't have time, but you're much better off if you try to spread it in proportion to the individual show pools.

In the HP race, if you had bet $10k on Hilda's Passion and spread $1,000 evenly amongst the other condenders ($165 each), then you would have cashed about $14,100. If HP ran out and the next three most heavily-bet horses had won, you would have only cashed for $9,570, a shortfall of $1,420. If HP had held on for third, with the :4: and the :1: rounding out the top three, you would have cashed for $11,220, a profit of $230. And if the finish had been :6: :7: :2: , exactly as it was bet most heavily, you actually would have lost a few bucks. You can see how it's important to bet that last 1x in proportion to the show pools.

And remember, that was a race where the odds-on favorite held 92.5% of the show pool, and even then you have to bet within strict parameters in order to guarantee a profit.

- InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

ed.

2. Are there any venues still left that "break to the dime" and provide a $2.20 minimum payoff, rather than a $2.10 minimum payoff?


Ocala Mike From another thread Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Goren
Also does anyone know which tracks still have $2.20 minimum payoff ?
showbet replied
Again, off the top of my head: Massachusetts (Suffolk Downs and Plainridge), Colorado (Arapahoe), Iowa (Prairie Meadows), West Virginia (Charles Town and Mountaineer).

[BobD]

Mike--

I took a look at these, too. They are few and far between, since the only way you can *guarantee* a profit is if the odds-on favorite has more than 90% of the pool. Because of that, there aren't enough races to make any sort of substantial living off of them.

Plus, you need to be very careful about how you distribute your wagers *against* the jumper, because if the odds-on favorite runs out (and you lose your bet-for wager), whether you make a profit will depend very heavily on whether you have enough money on the right horses.

The basic idea is to bet 10x on the jumper, and spread 1x among the other contenders. You can spread that last 1x evenly if you don't have time, but you're much better off if you try to spread it in proportion to the individual show pools.

In the HP race, if you had bet $10k on Hilda's Passion and spread $1,000 evenly amongst the other condenders ($165 each), then you would have cashed about $14,100. If HP ran out and the next three most heavily-bet horses had won, you would have only cashed for $9,570, a shortfall of $1,420. If HP had held on for third, with the :4: and the :1: rounding out the top three, you would have cashed for $11,220, a profit of $230. And if the finish had been :6: :7: :2: , exactly as it was bet most heavily, you actually would have lost a few bucks. You can see how it's important to bet that last 1x in proportion to the show pools.

And remember, that was a race where the odds-on favorite held 92.5% of the show pool, and even then you have to bet within strict parameters in order to guarantee a profit.

- InTheRiver68
With this field size, I'm not following how this approach would guarantee a profit as the vast majority of the time (when the bridge jumper runs ITM) wouldn't each of the horses pay $2.10 so you would collect $10,500 + (165*1.05=173.25*2) or $346.5 totaling $10,896.50 or a $93.5 loss. You might be able to weight the $1,000 investment slightly and when correct you might break even but even then there would be some element of risk.

Depending on what the % of the time the bridge jumper runs ITM (my memory says 85 - 90%) over the long run there might be a positive ROI but no guarantee.

Break even requires that the average pay off when the bridge jumper runs out is $845.1. (Assume 10% of the time: -$93.5 *.9 = -84.15 + ($841.50 * .1)

This particular example had a profit of $3,110 ($14,100 - ($10,000 + ($165 * 9) = $10,990).

[InTheRiver68]

With this field size, I'm not following how this approach would guarantee a profit as the vast majority of the time (when the bridge jumper runs ITM) wouldn't each of the horses pay $2.10 so you would collect $10,500 + (165*1.05=173.25*2) or $346.5 totaling $10,896.50 or a $93.5 loss.
Net-pool pricing has changed the way prices are calculated in multiple-horse pools. The show prices for the other two on the board are rarely $2.10 anymore, unless they had a large amount of money bet on them, too.

In the Belmont race, for example, if the second and third choices had come in, they would have paid $2.90 and $3.00 to show.

- InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

Net Pool Pricing has certainly helped those who bet against the jumper and I fail to see how it has hurt the jumper. Lowing the minimum payout has hurt the jumper which is why you see so many at places that still have the $2.20 minimum.

[InTheRiver68]

There are a few options today:

2:00pm CALD 1 #5/#6 (watch for a scratch)
2:25pm CALD 2 #1 (6/5 in 7-horse field)
2:50pm FING 6 #2/2a (7/5 entry in 8-horse field)
3:00pm BEL 1 #8 (7/5 in 8-horse field)
4:00pm BEL 3 #5 (6/5 in 6-horse field)
5:00pm BEL 5 #5 (7/5 in 5-horse field)
7:00pm MTR 1 #4 (even money in 9-horse field)
8:40pm MTR 5 #2 (7/5) and #10 (8/5) watch for a scratch

- InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

thanks InTheRiver68
here is my list
4:56 RD R-5
7:00 MNR R-1
11:03 PRM R-9
Possible with a scratch
1:29 FL R-3 (5) (6)
2:50 FL R-6 (2 entry)(3)
3:17 FL R-7 (6) (5)
7:50 PIN R-8 (5) (6)
8:40 MNR R-5 (2) (10)
10:11 PRM R-7 (1entry) (8)

[BombsAway Bob]

Net Pool Pricing has certainly helped those who bet against the jumper and I fail to see how it has hurt the jumper. Lowing the minimum payout has hurt the jumper which is why you see so many at places that still have the $2.20 minimum.

i have been betting against Bridgejumpers since Ladys Secret Bolted at Saratoga with +$100K in show dough on her! Betting from Home makes it
a lot more accessible.& Net Pool Pricing makes it more attractive.
THAT BEING SAID, Why anyone would Bet Big Bucks into a $2.10 Minimum
Pool when they can find many 'sure things' at tracks in states that demand a $2.20 minimum show payoff Return is beyond me!

[spicytomato]

thx for the posts

CRC has tons of scrs today

Lil trick for me is to find the top speed rated
Look for atleast two to be scrd
bet the other two above longshots with my fav jockey
or lightwieght jockey with talent

then bet my fav jockey on the long one over the two fav

works for nice pays sometimes over 200 take

maiden races really pay nice- I look for my jockey to have trainer combo

anyway , scrs makin it attractive:cool:

[Robert Goren]

RD R-5 no show betting. 4 scratches from an 8 horse race including both halves of the 1 entry.

[spicytomato]

thx for the posts

CRC has tons of scrs today
Lil trick for me is to find the top speed rated
Look for atleast two to be scrd
bet the other two above longshots with my fav jockey
or lightwieght jockey with talent

then bet my fav jockey on the long one over the two fav

works for nice pays sometimes over 200 take

maiden races really pay nice- I look for my jockey to have trainer combo

anyway , scrs makin it attractive:cool:

heres a wager or two that did okay to play this way

07/08/2011 14:30:08 46377443231706 Calder Race Course 5$1.00 4/5,7 $2.00 Exacta $11.00




07/08/2011 14:35:08 66510609359453 Calder Race Course 8$1.00 9/3,4,8 $3.00 Exacta $25.80

[spicytomato]

ps the above is just another way to use the bridgejumper info.



when lookin for one to beat


thx for pics:)

[spicytomato]

ps the above is just another way to use the bridgejumper info.



when lookin for one to beat


thx for pics:)

emrald downs tonights card has many bridgejump opts:)

[Robert Goren]

MNR R-1 Although there was some late money show up the best he ever got to was 72%. No bet

[Robert Goren]

No jumpers on friday 7/8/11

[Robert Goren]

Plenty places for jumpers today
2:04 FL R-3
3:59 LS R-4
4:36 WO R-8
5:42 NP R-7
7:25 MNR R-2
7:40 HOL R-8
8:45 EMD R-8
8:50 PRM R-4
9:30 MNR R-7
10:37 PRM R-8
There are about 15 more possibilities with a scratch or two. I will try to check the early scratches and post any that come up. DEL and LS have at least 3 each. but IMO the most likely spot with or without a scratch is HOL R-3.

[Robert Goren]

Plenty places for jumpers today
2:04 FL R-3
3:59 LS R-4
4:36 WO R-8
5:42 NP R-7
7:25 MNR R-2
7:40 HOL R-8
8:45 EMD R-8
8:50 PRM R-4
9:30 MNR R-7
10:37 PRM R-8
There are about 15 more possibilities with a scratch or two. I will try to check the early scratches and post any that come up. DEL and LS have at least 3 each. but IMO the most likely spot with or without a scratch is HOL R-3.should be HOL R-4

[Robert Goren]

WO R-8 jumper ran second my horse :4: ran out

[Robert Goren]

HOL R-4 looks like a go or not

[Robert Goren]

Hol R-4 late money drop it well below the 80% I require. no bet

[Robert Goren]

MNR R-2 jumper ran third my horse :4: ran out

[lamboguy]

mountaineer is turning out to be a great place betting on or against the money. i just got $4.00 to win in the 7th race. horse left the gate 2-5, and crossed the wire at even money. i had the horse as a 2-5 shot to begin with

[Robert Goren]

PRM R-8 jumper won my horse:1: ran third paid $ 2.20

[Robert Goren]

today's results
10 races
3 jumpers 3 cashed
3 bets 1 cash
$6.00 bet loss $3.80
Total to date
74 races
28 jumpers 25 cashed
27 bets 17 cashed
$54.00 wagered profit $17.80
1 jumper bet
$2.00 wagered profit $0.20
betting all non jumper horses totals
$324.00 wagered
$508.60 cashed
On to tomorrow

[Robert Goren]

5 races todays and there are few possibles at MNR with a scratch, but as we all know any race at MNR is a possible with or without scratches.

1:20 CLN R-2
4:15 PIN R-1
4:40 CLN R-10
5:47 EMD R-2
10:20 MNR R-9

[InTheRiver68]

Here's what I'll be looking at today:

1:20pm COL 2 #8 (out of 8) 4/5 ML in starter allowance on the turf.
2:04pm BEL 3 #1 (out of 7) 8/5 ML, watch for scratches
4:15pm Pleasanton 1 #5 (out of 6) 3/5 ML, Arabian allowance
4:40pm COL 10 #11 (out of 11) 3/5 ML $7,500 claimers on the turf.
5:03pm HOL 3 #1 (out of 5) 8/5 ML
5:47pm EME 2 #6 (out of 6) 3/5 ML, maiden claimers
10:20pm MTR 9 #2 (out of 7) even ML, $7,500 claimers

- InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

Owing to some scratches, BEL's 6th and 7th may now be worth a look.

- InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

CLN r-2 has no show betting because scratches

[Robert Goren]

No jumpers today

On to tomorrow

[Robert Goren]

3 races today
2:04 FL R-2
3:28 SUF R-7
8:40 MNR R-5
The FL race is an entry for the jumper

[Robert Goren]

FL R-3 no show betting due to scratches

[Robert Goren]

No jumpers race today

[Robert Goren]

Only one race today to look at
8:15 MNR R-4

[Robert Goren]

MNR R-4 jumper ran second my horse :8: ran out

[Robert Goren]

total to date
82 races
29 jumpers 226 cashed
28 bets 17 cashed
$54.00 wagered profit $15.80
1 jumper bet
$2.00 wagered profit $0.20
betting all non jumper horses totals
$336.00 wagered
$518.40 cashed
On to tomorrow
__________________

[lamboguy]

MNR R-4 jumper ran second my horse :8: ran out
the toughest thing in racing to figure out is if the jumper is in, who is most likely to be on the board? also when they run out, you get results where you could never figure those horses to be on the board.

its not that easy. but sometimes there are 2 horse races that if one of them runs out the other one will be in no matter how the pace goes.

[Robert Goren]

4 races today. I really think that only race offers any real hope and it
ain't much.
1:12 SUF R-2
1:58 RD R-3
2:27 RD R-4
7:05 CLN R-6

[duncan04]

Todays first at Suffolk had a bridgejumper jump. The show payouts were $16.40, $16.40 and $15.00.

[mistergee]

total to date
82 races
29 jumpers 226 cashed
28 bets 17 cashed
$54.00 wagered profit $15.80
1 jumper bet
$2.00 wagered profit $0.20
betting all non jumper horses totals
$336.00 wagered
$518.40 cashed
On to tomorrow
__________________
trying to figure if you dont mind explaining, are you saying you would be better off betting every horse (non-jumper) in the jumper races rather than handicapping one particular one to play against the jumper?