INFLATED SHOW PRICES

[teddy]

Thought i would open the discussion on taking advantage on the inflated show prices. Its becoming too common for horses to be slammmed in the show pools by more than 15%over the place and win pools. Rebating is playing a key roll. I am looking to the second and third choices for value now. After hitting some huge show prices on them when the fav runs out, It sure seems there is money there. Also with net pool pricing my show prices are overpaying even if the chalk runs in.


Where is a good starting point in handicapping the second best horse. Is it as simple as that, and watching the pool totals for skewed wagering percentages?

[Robert Goren]

I think a smart bettor can make money betting against "bridge jumpers" if he is selective. The chief problems are the long periods of time between wagers and ADWs are not taking action on a lot of "bridge jumper" show pools. The big draw back is having to monitor so many races looking for the opportunity to bet. There is money there if you have the patience.

[Robert Goren]

Although I haven't made a study of it I have noticed that favorites that have a lower percentage bet in place pool than in the win pool and an even lower percentage bet on them in show pool do seem to win more often than those who don't. The problem becomes that there so much late money that changes everything.

[lamboguy]

I think a smart bettor can make money betting against "bridge jumpers" if he is selective. The chief problems are the long periods of time between wagers and ADWs are not taking action on a lot of "bridge jumper" show pools. The big draw back is having to monitor so many races looking for the opportunity to bet. There is money there if you have the patience.you can make money betting on or against bridgejumping. there was one last night at running aces that blew up and one of the tickets paid $49, and the other one was i think $39. the money didn't show up on my tote service until after the race had started. i didn't get it, i played the losing horse in the race.

what i personally do is i play the same thing on the heavy bet horse or the same against the heavy bet horse if i think he has a chance to blow up. the other night i played against one in mountaineer and it paid $12.00. 2 races later i played the horse that was bet for the very same amount.

i never play the whole field against the money, to me that is bridgejumping. most of the time i play just one of them, occaisionally two.

if you want to bet against bridgejumpers there are plenty of opportunities for you now. all you have to do is work all day to find them.

[teddy]

you can make money betting on or against bridgejumping. there was one last night at running aces that blew up and one of the tickets paid $49, and the other one was i think $39. the money didn't show up on my tote service until after the race had started. i didn't get it, i played the losing horse in the race.

what i personally do is i play the same thing on the heavy bet horse or the same against the heavy bet horse if i think he has a chance to blow up. the other night i played against one in mountaineer and it paid $12.00. 2 races later i played the horse that was bet for the very same amount.

i never play the whole field against the money, to me that is bridgejumping. most of the time i play just one of them, occaisionally two.

if you want to bet against bridgejumpers there are plenty of opportunities for you now. all you have to do is work all day to find them.


I was on the same one at mtn...thats 5 misses i get for free now. Which makes me believe with a rebate that there is real opportunity here. Only problem is if you are at a shop that charges back for neg pools you still have to pay back all your rebate and winnings in most cases if the chalk runs in the money. Hows that for a stab. I literally won races and the chargebacks are more than the winnings. Best to play at small hubs that dont do that in those excessively lopsided jumpers. The ones where there is 98% on one horse to show. Plenty of plays at Suf or mtn. Especially against D. Parker. Hes busted up so many jumpers I cant count. The smaller jumps are really rebaters in my opinion. Hoping to not get caught by the adm.

Oh and does a reduced takeout of 3% directly transfer to show payoffs of 3% more..

[Robert Goren]

you can make money betting on or against bridgejumping. there was one last night at running aces that blew up and one of the tickets paid $49, and the other one was i think $39. the money didn't show up on my tote service until after the race had started. i didn't get it, i played the losing horse in the race.

what i personally do is i play the same thing on the heavy bet horse or the same against the heavy bet horse if i think he has a chance to blow up. the other night i played against one in mountaineer and it paid $12.00. 2 races later i played the horse that was bet for the very same amount.

i never play the whole field against the money, to me that is bridgejumping. most of the time i play just one of them, occaisionally two.

if you want to bet against bridgejumpers there are plenty of opportunities for you now. all you have to do is work all day to find them.Do you have a way of pre sorting potential races where you think a bridge jumper might land? Say like, a race with a horse that has an even money morning line. There is lot of races in a day. Only one in several hundred has a bridgejumper if that. If a person could cut that down to say one in twenty or so, it would not be so bad.

[davew]

the bets that show up late are hard to bet against

and on small pool tracks, good bets become bad bets after others do the same as you

[buffaloxp]

Whan bridgejumper lay 90%to one horse show, they will also bet two live .horse to show to the offshore book,more of the time they won big

[lamboguy]

Do you have a way of pre sorting potential races where you think a bridge jumper might land? Say like, a race with a horse that has an even money morning line. There is lot of races in a day. Only one in several hundred has a bridgejumper if that. If a person could cut that down to say one in twenty or so, it would not be so bad.
if i knew what they are coming in on ahead of time i would be a multimillionaire. they are betting the most stupid horses at mountaineer right now, i have no idea where they are finding the oxygen in this world to keep breathing. don't believe me, ask mark paterson, his eyeballs are doing dazio dances trying to figure out how they come up with some of these horses to show at his track.

[teddy]

Yes look for deshawn on anything under 2-1ml, with a bigname trainer it will get crushed and will show 90 percent of the time. often though it will get beat. I think it shows a flat bet profit but when it is out of the money you can crush.

[grant miller]

I play harness mostly Ive caught great prices on the n.y.s.s. -owners bet big to show! friday at buffalo,I caught 2 races. green horses shipping to a new track is becomming an awsome bet against! tioga downs is a good track to beat the bridge jummpers, Its a fairly new track,& therse not alot of smart money being bet there,(people overbet the program & tv picks.

[mountainman]

I was on the same one at mtn...thats 5 misses i get for free now. Which makes me believe with a rebate that there is real opportunity here. Only problem is if you are at a shop that charges back for neg pools you still have to pay back all your rebate and winnings in most cases if the chalk runs in the money. Hows that for a stab. I literally won races and the chargebacks are more than the winnings. Best to play at small hubs that dont do that in those excessively lopsided jumpers. The ones where there is 98% on one horse to show. Plenty of plays at Suf or mtn. Especially against D. Parker. Hes busted up so many jumpers I cant count. The smaller jumps are really rebaters in my opinion. Hoping to not get caught by the adm.

Oh and does a reduced takeout of 3% directly transfer to show payoffs of 3% more..

Mnr jumpers are the worst handicappers in captivity. They blow repeatedly because they just don't recognize obvious risk factors. They missed TWICE last night by plunging on horses I cautioned against on the show. It's a haven for contrarian show bets.