skipaway100
06-15-2011, 02:30 AM
#1 Black Coco - New top with a 34 last time out. Bounce probable.
#2 Mariposa Rosa - Another one with a new top, 39. Likely 2-6 point regression today
#3 Grandanna - Has a 40 last year and has been alternating good-bad-good-bad this year. I like the chances of her running a 36-40 here.
#4 Crafty For Sure - 30 top, a decent chance to run a new one today, but how much is the question. 32-36.
#5 Avanta - Has run a 39 three times, and may be ready to fire another one here, but a top is even possible. At 3 years old, there's lots of room to grow. 38-43
#6 Ms N. Tarsia - Has a couple 39's, including her last, but a regression seems more likely. Sprints were never her best distance. 33-38
#7 Wakina - 38 top four races back, bounced but is starting to work back to it (32-36-37). Has a decent chance of running a new top here. 37-42.
1 and 4 are too slow.
2 and 6 have a negative pattern.
That leaves #3, #5, #7 as the main contenders capable of running high 30s/40 or higher.
#5 and #7 are the more likely winners, but #3 Grandanna (10-1 ML) at a potential big price could be the value play here. Let the post time odds dictate your play. Anything better than 3-1 on the #5 or #7 would be good bets though.
#2 Mariposa Rosa - Another one with a new top, 39. Likely 2-6 point regression today
#3 Grandanna - Has a 40 last year and has been alternating good-bad-good-bad this year. I like the chances of her running a 36-40 here.
#4 Crafty For Sure - 30 top, a decent chance to run a new one today, but how much is the question. 32-36.
#5 Avanta - Has run a 39 three times, and may be ready to fire another one here, but a top is even possible. At 3 years old, there's lots of room to grow. 38-43
#6 Ms N. Tarsia - Has a couple 39's, including her last, but a regression seems more likely. Sprints were never her best distance. 33-38
#7 Wakina - 38 top four races back, bounced but is starting to work back to it (32-36-37). Has a decent chance of running a new top here. 37-42.
1 and 4 are too slow.
2 and 6 have a negative pattern.
That leaves #3, #5, #7 as the main contenders capable of running high 30s/40 or higher.
#5 and #7 are the more likely winners, but #3 Grandanna (10-1 ML) at a potential big price could be the value play here. Let the post time odds dictate your play. Anything better than 3-1 on the #5 or #7 would be good bets though.