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thew92
06-15-2011, 01:34 AM
Hey Guys I started this thread last week and got alot of great feedback from everyone Thanks A lot. Last Saturday thing went well until I got overwhelmed and over bet the big race of the day. So my discipline was off.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=84091

So I am going to lay out my plan for my Saturday racing betting and handicapping. Fell free to tell me if I have any bad logic in what I am doing.

1. I am only betting horses to win.
2. I will not bet more than $2 on any horse.
3. I will wait to place my bet till at least 1 min. to post.
4. I will not bet on any horse with out get better than 5-2
5. I will pass on at least 3 races this week.
6. I plan on playing 3 tracks this weekend (Churchill, Woodbine and Belmont) Fell free to add or subtract bettor tracks to bet on.
7. I will post in this thread my bets for review if anyone is playing the same tracks I would love to hear from them.
8. I will keep a record of my betting in an excel sheet this week.
9. Friday night I will review the PPs if anyone here wants to help me out on this and playing the same tracks or other tracks let me know so I get the proper PPs
10. I will not bet 2 horses in the same race unless getting better than 6-1 on both.

I am posting this because these are my goals for Saturday and I am more likely to do this if I make it public. Please fell free to criticize anything on my list.

Paul Revere
06-15-2011, 04:10 AM
4. I will not bet on any horse with out get better than 5-2



Can I ask why this rule??

The break even win percentage of a horse going off at 5-2 is 40%. So if the horse going off at 5-2 actually has a win percentage above 40%, you have a value bet.

Why would you limit your ability to get value??

And cash a high percentage of wagers??

Question. Which is a better bet, a horse going off at 3-2 that you determine has a five percent edge or a horse going off at 21-1 that you also determine has a five percent edge?

And why?


If you where going to limit the odds range you were betting on I would be setting a max odds limit rather than that a min odds limit because of the fav/long shot bias (some will argue that this no longer exists).

Robert Goren
06-15-2011, 08:16 AM
5. I will pass on at least 3 races this week.
Not nearly tight enough. You are playing everything except unsuited deuces and treys under the gun. You should be as selective in your plays as if you if you looking at a raise from a tight early player while in middle position with a maniac as the dealer preflop. You would be better off playing only 3 races this week.
I also think that trying to keep with 3 tracks at the same time is a lot to ask of a beginner.

The Hawk
06-15-2011, 09:19 AM
5. I will pass on at least 3 races this week.
Not nearly tight enough. You are playing everything except unsuited deuces and treys under the gun. You should be as selective in your plays as if you if you looking at a raise from a tight early player while in middle position with a maniac as the dealer preflop. You would be better off playing only 3 races this week.
I also think that trying to keep with 3 tracks at the same time is a lot to ask of a beginner.

Agree with all of this. You need to focus more, either on one track or one type of race, be it turf races, sprints, stakes, etc. Rather than make 20 $2 bets you should make two $20 bets, on races where you have a strong opinion or an edge (perceived or otherwise).

thew92
06-15-2011, 10:55 AM
5. I will pass on at least 3 races this week.
Not nearly tight enough. You are playing everything except unsuited deuces and treys under the gun. You should be as selective in your plays as if you if you looking at a raise from a tight early player while in middle position with a maniac as the dealer preflop. You would be better off playing only 3 races this week.
I also think that trying to keep with 3 tracks at the same time is a lot to ask of a beginner.

Love the analogy here.
I guess I should set the goal of passing on half of the races then. (I know that probably still not tight enough) But as of now I really can't see the difference between T4o and AKs in races yet.

thew92
06-15-2011, 10:57 AM
Agree with all of this. You need to focus more, either on one track or one type of race, be it turf races, sprints, stakes, etc. Rather than make 20 $2 bets you should make two $20 bets, on races where you have a strong opinion or an edge (perceived or otherwise).

The problem is I don't know where/if I have an edge. So I am kind of looking for one just don't know how to get as of yet.

thew92
06-15-2011, 10:59 AM
4. I will not bet on any horse with out get better than 5-2



Can I ask why this rule??

The break even win percentage of a horse going off at 5-2 is 40%. So if the horse going off at 5-2 actually has a win percentage above 40%, you have a value bet.

Why would you limit your ability to get value??

And cash a high percentage of wagers??

Question. Which is a better bet, a horse going off at 3-2 that you determine has a five percent edge or a horse going off at 21-1 that you also determine has a five percent edge?

And why?


If you where going to limit the odds range you were betting on I would be setting a max odds limit rather than that a min odds limit because of the fav/long shot bias (some will argue that this no longer exists).

The reason for this rule is. Least week I fell in love with some favorites and there odds drop dramatically so I am trying to come up will some way to stop me from betting all Favs. As of now I don't know if I indeed have a 5% edge here or there.

Robert Goren
06-15-2011, 11:03 AM
The problem is I don't know where/if I have an edge. So I am kind of looking for one just don't know how to get as of yet.There is nothing like a losing to drive home the point that betting that type horse is a bad idea. Trial and Error is the way most people learn. Just remember to keep the bets small while learning.

PhantomOnTour
06-15-2011, 11:18 AM
The education of a horseplayer can be summed up in 3 words:

LOSE AND LEARN

Very few of us have the discipline to try our picks only on paper. The races are free to watch and learn from, but I don't personally know anyone who went about it this way. The education is free when playing 'on paper' only, but too many people (me included) chose the "action first-lessons second" approach.
Hopefully you will choose the "lessons first-action second" approach...it can be an expensive education if you don't. :ThmbUp:

I also agree that newbies should follow one track or circuit. They will soon see horses and trainers they remember, and familiarity with the players in the game is crucial.
Watch as many races as you can.

turninforhome10
06-15-2011, 11:19 AM
When you say you won't bet horses less than 5-2, make sure these are real odds, not over-inflated odds. Bet the horse because you agree with odds and feel that you are getting value. I don't know how many times I have gotten off 5-1 to 10-1 shots because of odds pressure telling me the favorite was real.
If the public is betting a horse off a win make sure you watch the replays and rate the win. Learning to make your own oddline would be very helpful. Vulnerable favorites can make for all in situations.
Learn to judge the body language of jocks during a race, whether they put the horse in contention or not early in the race.
Learning to envision how a race will unfold by pace is also helpful.
Remember at the top of the stretch the money has left your hands and is now in the jocks hand. Give it to one that also feels they have the best horse.

Charli125
06-15-2011, 12:17 PM
There is some fantastic advice here.

For a new player such as yourself, I would really recommend starting with one circuit. Pick NY or KY, maybe both, but definitely not all 3.

If you follow Belmont right now, then you'll have a jump on Saratoga in terms of connections, horses, etc. Then you'll be able to go into Aqueduct with an even further understanding of the circuit.

I'd also echo what another poster said about instead of eliminating 3 races, only playing 3 races(If that's not enough action for you, bet $5 on 3 races rather than $2 on 7-8 races). Around 90% of my betting is done in the Win pool, with the rest on horizontal exotics. I almost never find 3 horses on the same card worthy of a Win bet in my eyes. I would suggest that if you find 7 or 8 races to bet on the same card, then you're probably reaching.

Best of luck to you. I think you're going to gain a lot of good advice by posting questions on this board and you're already making some good assumptions.

thew92
06-15-2011, 12:33 PM
Thanks for the advise.
Newbie question coming: What is the difference between Circuit and Track?
And is there a place on this form with all the lingo defined here?

Horseplayersbet.com
06-15-2011, 12:37 PM
Thanks for the advise.
Newbie question coming: What is the difference between canCircuit and Track?
And is there a place on this form with all the lingo defined here?
Circuit can have a couple of meanings. It could mean the individual track but most of the time it means:
A geographical grouping of tracks whose race meetings are coordinated to run in succession.

http://www.runhorse.com/popular_horse_racing_terms.htm

Charli125
06-15-2011, 12:53 PM
Thanks for the advise.
Newbie question coming: What is the difference between Circuit and Track?
And is there a place on this form with all the lingo defined here?

When I say Circuit, I'm talking about a grouping of tracks that will have the same jockeys, trainers, owners, horses, etc.

In the NY example you have pretty much year round racing between Belmont, Aqueduct, and Saratagoa. Three different tracks, all of which are very different(Even the 2 Aqueduct meets are very different from eachother.), but one circuit. That means there are a lot of similarities and things that you can learn at one track can carry over to the next.

Don't take that to mean that what works at Belmont will work at Aqueduct, but I think it gives you a bit of an edge, especially when it comes to connections and specific horses.

I look at some people that I think of as very well versed on the NYRA circuit and some of the insights they have from following that circuit are amazing. OTM Al and PA are two that come to mind. It takes a lot of time, but there's no question that it gives you an edge.

turninforhome10
06-15-2011, 12:56 PM
Let me help you get the lingo down.
To equate this to cards it is like this:
Think of the tracks as card games.
The tracks that have the best purses, attract the better horses for the most part. Circuits are the path they follow, what games are being offered in a sense. New York, Kentucky, California, Florida, Louisiana, Maryland and some others have shared the year by splitting the racing season into different tracks and sometimes types of racing. Each track has its own nuance and trainers try to play the best cards at the best time.
This is where the condition book comes in. In order to attract horses to race at their tracks, racing secretaries write the races available to horses to run in a book that usually has the schedule for a month to six weeks. These are the games available for the trainer to play his hand. To me where a trainer runs their horse is their tell. What type of race the horse runs in vs. what the horse is eligible for vs what races are available. Think about it like this. You look at the pps for a race look at the conditions and find which horses fit this tells what kind of game it is by price. Then look at the horses and trainers and find that trainer that seems to be playin the right hand(horse) in the right game(condition).
Wil post more later Belmont is rollin.

If you are a trainer your stable is the cards you are playing.

Some_One
06-15-2011, 08:34 PM
Dont pass races just to meet a quota, its like folding JTs in the CO in poker because you want to keep your stats around 24/20. I've gone days where I played only one race in the card, and then on the converse, I think I played every non 2yr old race at Woodbine last Sunday because the races were quite juicy (proof by hitting 2 20-1's and the 80-1 in the 6th)

thaskalos
06-15-2011, 09:52 PM
The problem is I don't know where/if I have an edge. So I am kind of looking for one just don't know how to get as of yet.
I will make it easy for you...and I am not being sarcastic.

Since you are a complete novice at this game...it is safe to assume that you DON'T have an edge! The edge will come only after you build a solid foundation of knowledge...and this is going to require much time and effort on your part.

Start reading a good book or two...and keep your bets to the minimum for now.

Yes...Robert Goren is right!

You would be much better off if you pass the great majority of races you see...and only bet on a couple a races per day. The only problem is...you need a certain amount of knowledge before you can distinguish the playable races from the unplayable ones...and you don't possess that knowledge yet.

Read a couple of the good books...and get your feet wet by sticking to minimum bets for now...

This way, your tuition won't cost you as much as it costed me...

riskman
06-15-2011, 10:23 PM
You mentioned that you are wagering through Twinspires and using the Bris PP's'. Go to the Handicapping Library at this site. There is plenty of free information to browse and many fine handicapping articles that will help you.

http://www.brisnet.net/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=library

Uncle Salty
06-17-2011, 12:50 AM
Yes, as others have stated, keep the bets to a minimum in addition to betting small. See if you can allow yourself one bet a day on a race you have good feeling about.

And very good advice to follow just one circuit and get to know who the trainers and jockeys are. Try to see if you can find patterns in the past performances that the different trainers use, such as class moves and distance changes, that have produced winners in the past.

And very important to keep records! Take notes. Keep track of your bets and why you are making them. Keep track of how your picks perform and the reasons for the performance. Did a good, live-looking horse perform badly? If so, why? Did he get a bad trip? Pinned on the rail? Not enough room coming into the stretch and have to go 5 wide? Did a horse you threw out perform very well? Again, if so, why? What did you might have miss in the past performances. I mean, sometimes it is what it is, but other times you might have just overlooked something. Exercises like these can help you hone your skills and let you know what to look for next time.

Keep in mind that his is a hobby/sport that rewards patience and discipline. And it can be a very expensive undertaking for someone who just likes to be in action.

jasperson
06-18-2011, 08:14 AM
Rule 1. I am strictly a win better,but maybe once a month I see a race where an exotic bet is the only way to go. I normally don't go looking for these bets,but when they just stick out I bet them. I don't have any hard and fast rules if a bet make sense then make the bet. Take the case where my handicapping says 3 horses have a good chance of winning. One is even money or less and other 2 are 5/1 or greater this to me is a good exacta bet.

BlueShoe
06-18-2011, 09:43 AM
The break even win percentage of a horse going off at 5-2 is 40%. So if the horse going off at 5-2 actually has a win percentage above 40%, you have a value bet.
Just a little math check here. The break even point for a $7.00 average mutuel is a tick under 29% winners, 28% and a fraction. 30% winners at 5-2 would return a 5% flat bet profit. 40% winners at an average $7.00 return would give the player a dizzy 40% profit, returns unheard of in todays high tech handicapping world. In mathamatical theory the break even payoff for 40% winners is 3-2, a $5.00 mutual. Any of us would swoon at the prospect of hitting two out of every five win bets that we make at an average 5-2 payoff.