thaskalos
06-12-2011, 10:00 PM
Now that race replays have become widely available, many handicappers have taken up the task of carefully viewing these replays in order to determine if the winning horses were INDEED the best horses in their field...or if, maybe, some OTHER horse(s) would have won the race, had it not been for some stroke of misfortune - or human error - during the running of the race.
Quite often, the perceptive handicapper is left with the impression that the winning horse was NOT the best in the race...and that ANOTHER horse was denied its rightful trip to the winners circle, because of the chaotic nature of this game.
In this thread, I would like to look into the HUMAN factor in this "chaos"; the jockeys' tactical mistakes during the race...and their affect on the horses involved.
It is readily acknowledged that a front runner, who is forced to set an uncomfortably fast pace in the early going, is in for quite a struggle during the late stages of that race.
Some mathematical types have even tried to accurately predict the extent of the front runner's deceleration...as the abnormally fast early fractions start taking their toll.
William Quirin has written that every fifth-of-a second of extra exertion at the pace call would cost the front runner TWO fifths-of a- second at the finish.
Our very own CRATOS has presented, to this very board, a very sophisticated (to me at least) mathematical model which seeks to accomplish the same thing...but with much more precision.
Whether it's possible or not to accurately predict the affect an exhaustive early pace has on the front runners...one thing is certain. We all agree that these front runners are greatly inconvenienced by the running of these types of races...and we FORGIVE them for the subpar finishes they record as a result. And that's how it SHOULD be!
But what about those misunderstood stretch runners?
Don't THEY deserve the benefit of the doubt - and to be forgiven for THEIR subpar performances - when they are allowed to run much SLOWER in the early going than they are capable of...thereby giving a sizable HEAD START to the rest of the field?
It is often mentioned that a slow PACE hurts the winning chances of the stretch runners in a race; but what about a NORMAL pace, during which the stretch runner is allowed to languish in last place...MUCH further back than the horse normally finds itself?
Is this stretch runner expected to somehow "sprout wings" and overtake his competition down the stretch...just because he "conserved" his energy during the early stages of the race?
Are the lengths behind at the start really an UNIMPORTANT matter to the stretch runner...just because he "figured" to be in the back of the field ANYWAY?
I THINK NOT!
On our country's dirt surfaces - where early speed has been called "the universal bias" - stretch runners find themselves at a distinct disadvantage...even when the pace of the race is NORMAL.
And they deserve to have their subpar races EXCUSED, when their jockeys misappropriate the energy of these stretch runners...and mistime their moves.
Quite often, the perceptive handicapper is left with the impression that the winning horse was NOT the best in the race...and that ANOTHER horse was denied its rightful trip to the winners circle, because of the chaotic nature of this game.
In this thread, I would like to look into the HUMAN factor in this "chaos"; the jockeys' tactical mistakes during the race...and their affect on the horses involved.
It is readily acknowledged that a front runner, who is forced to set an uncomfortably fast pace in the early going, is in for quite a struggle during the late stages of that race.
Some mathematical types have even tried to accurately predict the extent of the front runner's deceleration...as the abnormally fast early fractions start taking their toll.
William Quirin has written that every fifth-of-a second of extra exertion at the pace call would cost the front runner TWO fifths-of a- second at the finish.
Our very own CRATOS has presented, to this very board, a very sophisticated (to me at least) mathematical model which seeks to accomplish the same thing...but with much more precision.
Whether it's possible or not to accurately predict the affect an exhaustive early pace has on the front runners...one thing is certain. We all agree that these front runners are greatly inconvenienced by the running of these types of races...and we FORGIVE them for the subpar finishes they record as a result. And that's how it SHOULD be!
But what about those misunderstood stretch runners?
Don't THEY deserve the benefit of the doubt - and to be forgiven for THEIR subpar performances - when they are allowed to run much SLOWER in the early going than they are capable of...thereby giving a sizable HEAD START to the rest of the field?
It is often mentioned that a slow PACE hurts the winning chances of the stretch runners in a race; but what about a NORMAL pace, during which the stretch runner is allowed to languish in last place...MUCH further back than the horse normally finds itself?
Is this stretch runner expected to somehow "sprout wings" and overtake his competition down the stretch...just because he "conserved" his energy during the early stages of the race?
Are the lengths behind at the start really an UNIMPORTANT matter to the stretch runner...just because he "figured" to be in the back of the field ANYWAY?
I THINK NOT!
On our country's dirt surfaces - where early speed has been called "the universal bias" - stretch runners find themselves at a distinct disadvantage...even when the pace of the race is NORMAL.
And they deserve to have their subpar races EXCUSED, when their jockeys misappropriate the energy of these stretch runners...and mistime their moves.