Does Animal Kingdom win with a clean break?

[fiveouttasix]

What do you think? That was a huge move...would he have won easily...or would the inside speed bias have done him in anyway?

[thespaah]

What do you think? That was a huge move...would he have won easily...or would the inside speed bias have done him in anyway?
Excellent question. In post race interview Johnny V said he never pressed AK to run. He said he new he was out of it so there was no reason to use up the horse.
He went to say AK basically caught up on his own.
My estimation is AK would have finished in the top three. Catch the leader? Don't know.
The incident most definitely altered the outcome of the race.
On another note. Owner said he was looking to put AK in either the Secretariat or the Arlington Million...Perhaps a synthetic track start, then to the BC CLassic...
SO it looks like AK will not be seen in the Haskell or Travers..... :mad:

[Light]

No. I thought there was a high chance that neither Shack or AK would hit the board based on their pp pattern.This was the 3rd year in a row that a different horse won each leg of the triple crown.

[lsosa54]

Irwin said in an interview on ESPN 1050 yesterday morning that if the track had a bunch of standing water, Animal Kingdom should love it. However, if it was mud, he really had no idea how he would handle it.

[Spalding No!]

An interesting question is where Animal Kingdom would have settled early if he didn't clip heels.

From the first few yards out of the gate, it looked like he'd be sitting in the back anyways. Johnny V. or one of the connections mentioned wanting to have the horse up close early. So, would he have pushed Animal Kingdom into a more prominent position even though he clearly likes to come from out of it? Furthermore, if allowed to settle in last as he was forced to do, would Johnny V. have made that ridiculously early move?

Lastly, did Johnny V. bust Animal Kingdom's gut with his futile ride the last half of the race?

[sonnyp]

An interesting question is where Animal Kingdom would have settled early if he didn't clip heels.

From the first few yards out of the gate, it looked like he'd be sitting in the back anyways. Johnny V. or one of the connections mentioned wanting to have the horse up close early. So, would he have pushed Animal Kingdom into a more prominent position even though he clearly likes to come from out of it? Furthermore, if allowed to settle in last as he was forced to do, would Johnny V. have made that ridiculously early move?

Lastly, did Johnny V. bust Animal Kingdom's gut with his futile ride the last half of the race?


you are spot on. just watched a replay a couple times and AK broke flat footed and last and put himself in position for the problems he encountered.

the two outside horses did come over, but his break from the gate left him last to begin with.

[Light]

When a horse stumbles he loses distance not energy. Mathematically AK was 14 lengths behind the leader at the 1/4. He finished 9 lengths back. I can very generously give AK a ground loss of 5 lengths from the stumble that he would have to make up with energy that he did not lose yet. That still leaves him 4 lengths back at the finish without a stumble.

[Spalding No!]

When a horse stumbles he loses distance not energy. Mathematically AK was 14 lengths behind the leader at the 1/4. He finished 9 lengths back. I can very generously give AK a ground loss of 5 lengths from the stumble that he would have to make up with energy that he did not lose yet. That still leaves him 4 lengths back at the finish without a stumble.

Does he lose any energy with a rider malpositioned in the saddle, struggling to regain a stirrup?

Center of gravity is important here. We may need Cratos on this one.

[Pensacola Pete]

The Belmont hasn't ever really been a race for a closer, and the mud didn't help.

[Light]

Does he lose any energy with a rider malpositioned in the saddle, struggling to regain a stirrup?

Center of gravity is important here.

I included that.

[Spalding No!]

The Belmont hasn't ever really been a race for a closer, and the mud didn't help.

It was pretty telling how the silks of both Jose Valdivia and whoever rode Stay Thirsty looked freshly laundered immediately after the race.

Instead of worrying about early position, timing their moves, and so forth, the trainers should have just told the jocks to keep their shirts clean if they wanted to have a shot at a victory.

[fiveouttasix]

He probably would have won if he got a Calvin Bo "rail" type of ride...somehow Calvin navigates through the inside (doesn't always work)

[Spalding No!]

I included that.

So he did lose both distance and energy by clipping heels and nearly unseating the rider.

[sonnyp]

He probably would have won if he got a Calvin Bo "rail" type of ride...somehow Calvin navigates through the inside (doesn't always work)


on that track yesterday, as velasqez said afterward, his chances of winning were "none" after the first 1/16 of the race.

from where he started, he had zero chance of winning.

[Light]

So he did lose both distance and energy by clipping heels and nearly unseating the rider.

If you insist, but not by my calculations.

[Spalding No!]

If you insist, but not by my calculations.

Then you're talking in circles and ignoring a major consequence of the trouble the horse suffered.

The horse had to carry a good portion of its assigned weight unbalanced (ie away from its center of gravity) for a 1/16th of a mile, causing undue strain and tension on its body, not to mention impeding its normal way of going.

Animal Kingdom certainly wasted significant energy recovering back into normal rhythm.

[Robert Fischer]

Does Animal Kingdom win with a clean break?

START - with your opinion before the race. Was he in your opinion the highest probability win horse??

if YES then you have a pretty good case that he "would have" in a fairly run race.
(at least IYO... if you can't pick a winner or just weren't that informed going in fine - but that was kind of assumed with the gist of the post)

if NO then you probably loved his effort in the belmont for you to even be asking the question.

NEXT - after reviewing those well-informed pre-race opinions REVIEW the Belmont.

last by about 11lengths @ 6furlongs
last by about 10lengths @ 8furlongs
forced to make premature run before turn and on turn
up to within 3 lengths @ top of stretch
flattened out and tired to finish 9.25 lengths behind @ finish


Then you have ask whether this race favored front runners or deep closers

then you have to use all the info to figure it out.



:cool: or u can cheat and ask Fischer - Animal Kingdom had the greatest win probability before the race using accurate insight.

we have to cheat again now and use hindsight = Animal Kingdom had by the best performance in the belmont and had a clear edge in ability
...HOWEVER to use hindsight accurately we have to use the bias from the race... = it was very hard on closers. Even with a clean break, Animal Kingdom would probably still been farther back than optimal(we can see watching the race that JV while not dropping back, did not hustle AK out of the gate either)... So being 6 lengths back would still have worked against Animal Kingdom's chances of running down the perfectly positioned warrior Ruler on Ice.

FINAL ANSWER
AK probably would have a slim edge on Ruler on Ice, but it may have been pretty close, and a best of 3 (or for the geeks - a simulation) may have shown split results.

BONUS QUESTION: - Who had the 2nd best performance other than Animal Kingdom? (hint wasn't the winner)

[Niko]

The horse I bet, Brilliant Speed...thought he was going to go by for a nice payday

[Robert Fischer]

The horse I bet, Brilliant Speed...thought he was going to go by for a nice payday
...
http://www.thecubiclechick.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/winner-image-300x242.jpg

[TheGhostOfOscarB]

Apparently if Ice doesnt win, half the know universe would have made the score of a lifetime . The exacta with the 2/3 finishers must have been paying $50 cause everyone had it.

I was skeptical of AK's chances going in , and I dont think he would have gotten it done under any circumstances. Not on that slop.

[Valuist]

To answer the original question, an unequivocal "no"

[lamboguy]

i have no idea if he would have got there.

all i know is the horse i bet in the race had a perfect trip and looked awful and i lost. NEHRO

[Edward DeVere]

When a horse stumbles he loses distance not energy. Mathematically AK was 14 lengths behind the leader at the 1/4. He finished 9 lengths back. I can very generously give AK a ground loss of 5 lengths from the stumble that he would have to make up with energy that he did not lose yet. That still leaves him 4 lengths back at the finish without a stumble.

What about the lengths he lost in the stretch after exhausting himself from making a huge move against the bias to get back in the game?

Many (most?) bad trips can NOT be easily quantified. Would you give a need-to-lead type who lost his last race by 18 lengths after breaking two lengths behind the field only two lengths of upgrade in today's race against the same horses? In other words, would you expect him to lose by 16 lengths today if he broke with the field instead of two lengths behind?

[thelyingthief]

yes, in fact, he does win with a clean break.

Belmont officials posted a "gimme-a-break" fund for those who bet AK, recognizing the unfairness of AK's bad break, and seeking to mollify those who's egos were demoralized by his loss. While admitting that an apology hardly matters, the officials apologized nonetheless, and promised to run the Belmont next year with only one entry. In this way, the officials are certain, even should said single entry fail to negotiate the gate, it won't matter. They will even allow the jockey to walk over the finish line should the lone entry encounter a life threatening event on his way to, from, or during the race.

One official was heard to mutter, although this leaving the urinal, "Yes sir, if you didn't win on your bet, it must've been something other than your losing selection that did you in."

Ain't racin' grand?

tlt-

[citygoat]

Robby would've won the triple crown with Animal Kingdom.

The shortest race(preakness) he's held too far back in the pack and in the longest race he tries to fly out of the gate.

JV is good but the mental game of taking Robby's ride seemed to throw him off his game.

[Rapid Grey]

Robby would've won the triple crown with Animal Kingdom.

The shortest race(preakness) he's held too far back in the pack and in the longest race he tries to fly out of the gate.

JV is good but the mental game of taking Robby's ride seemed to throw him off his game.

Albarado would have never split horses in the Derby, would have stayed wide (as he always does) and probably never caught Shackleford, much less Nehro. Same case for the Belmont, even with a clean break he would have had AK three or four wide throughout and that type trip wasn't going to win on that track Saturday.

Alan Garcia had ridden AK as many times as Albarado had, he would have been the one who could have piloted him to a Triple Crown other than JV.

[PhantomOnTour]

Rajiv gets 10 days for bumping incident at start of Belmont

[Robert Fischer]

Alan Garcia had ridden AK as many times as Albarado had, he would have been the one who could have piloted him to a Triple Crown other than JV.

True.
If ever there was a triple crown type dirt horse that was made for A.Garcia it was AK. Garcia may not be an ace with speed horses, but few are stronger or more patient. Unfortunately it appears he had loyalty issues to ride Soldat for KM.

Agree w/ much of what you said about Albarado as well.
nickname "AlbaraDOH!" for his nack of both hesitating through holes and premature asking...

- per Soldat - I really never really got that horse at all. Especially after the Florida Derby where he should have been far enough off the pace to make any run, all the while saving ground in the pocket (while dialed in circled). However he was up with the pack(none of whom made a move while Dialed in dropped back early).
In the Derby Soldat was a toss for me, but it was surprising to me that he ran the 6th best derby velocity using trakus for ft/sec in spite of finishing 11th 10.75lengths back. Have no idea of his soundness, but he wouldn't shock me if he is competitive again in a favorable spot.

[Robert Fischer]

Rajiv gets 10 days for bumping incident at start of Belmont

could be wrong but i heard they gave him a week off

[Tee]

Suspension is ten days, seven if he does not appeal.

[Light]

What about the lengths he lost in the stretch after exhausting himself from making a huge move against the bias to get back in the game?

We all have seen cheap claimers break worse than AK,be farther behind, and still win going away. If AK had what it takes that day, he would have overcome the poor start or at least gave it a Zenyatta type of try. I mean do you think Zenyatta would have flattened out with that start? No way. That's the mark of a champion. They have both ability and determination.

Many (most?) bad trips can NOT be easily quantified. Would you give a need-to-lead type who lost his last race by 18 lengths after breaking two lengths behind the field only two lengths of upgrade in today's race against the same horses? In other words, would you expect him to lose by 16 lengths today if he broke with the field instead of two lengths behind?

That's not how I handicap. The next time AK runs I am NOT going to use his Belmont race to judge how he will run in the future. Since I don't expect him to encounter trouble, I am going to use his good (trouble free) races to assess his ability. Same thing for this hypothetical horse you are talking about.

BUT, if you want me to assess what the horse did IN THE RACE IN QUESTION ON A MATHEMATICAL BASIS,then yes,your hypothetical horse only gets upgraded by 2 lengths and AK only gets upgraded 5 lengths.

[thaskalos]

That's not how I handicap. The next time AK runs I am NOT going to use his Belmont race to judge how he will run in the future. Since I don't expect him to encounter trouble, I am going to use his good (trouble free) races to assess his ability. Same thing for this hypothetical horse you are talking about.

BUT, if you want me to assess what the horse did IN THE RACE IN QUESTION ON A MATHEMATICAL BASIS,then yes,your hypothetical horse only gets upgraded by 2 lengths and AK only gets upgraded 5 lengths.
I agree with the first paragraph...but not the second one.

There in NO way - "mathematical" or otherwise - to accurately assess the performance of a horse who experiences serious trouble at the start of the race.

It's best to not even try...