A final thought on the triple crown.

[Casino]

Im still thinking,whos is the best 3 year old heading into the summer classics?If healthy is Uncle Mo still a major player?Will Dialed In rebound?

Before the derby most knew very little about this crop after the triple crown races we know less.

I will stay on the Jaycito bandwagon plenty of room.

[jldonah]

...will actually be three in a few days, though in saying that I am definitely not predicting he will be a star. He has been competitive in G1's though, so I hope he stay healthy. Who knows?

[Robert Fischer]

Animal Kingdom pretty much proved without a doubt...

Hopefully Uncle Mo will have a healthy return to give us value on some other horses, but he is done.

Im still thinking,whos is the best 3 year old heading into the summer classics?If healthy is Uncle Mo still a major player?Will Dialed In rebound?

Before the derby most knew very little about this crop after the triple crown races we know less.

I will stay on the Jaycito bandwagon plenty of room.

[Robert Fischer]

...will actually be three in a few days, though in saying that I am definitely not predicting he will be a star. He has been competitive in G1's though, so I hope he stay healthy. Who knows?

not to mention the inspirational human interest story with Ritvo :ThmbUp:

[thaskalos]

The mud is the great equalizer...

[toussaud]

Im still thinking,whos is the best 3 year old heading into the summer classics?If healthy is Uncle Mo still a major player?Will Dialed In rebound?

Before the derby most knew very little about this crop after the triple crown races we know less.

I will stay on the Jaycito bandwagon plenty of room.
i still think by november bind will be the best 3YO of this crop

[Saratoga_Mike]

i still think by november bind will be the best 3YO of this crop

I assume you're joking, right?

[Tom]

Considering no one can win two, he looks pretty good right now.

[cj]

To my eye, Shackleford is clearly best at the usual distances, just not at 1 1/2 miles.

[papillon]

To my eye, Shackleford is clearly best at the usual distances, just not at 1 1/2 miles.

:ThmbUp:

i'm pretty happy that the connections of shackleford, animal kingdom, and mucho macho man had their horses in all three TC races.

animal kingdom recovered pretty well today for such a horrendous start, chapeaux :ThmbUp:

and shack...aw, well...at least he wasn't beatten by tired horses like himself--it took 4 rested foes to topple the big guy today, a guy who almost nobody thought had a chance of going 12 furlongs...and at least he didnt pull a quality road :blush: i still love this horse and all the mile and eighths coming up later in the year should allow him to dominate.

there was something kind of fitting that shack and AK ended up one, two, with each other today.

does anyone know the exact distance that shack held on for? it looked to me like he made it to the just before the mile and a quarter, but that might be wishful eyeballing.

[Tom]

To me, Shack is the ONLY 3yo who has done anything impressive all year.
The rest are there one race and then excuse after excuse.

When you go to the front, you control your destiny.


AK is going to grass or plastic I heard...good. I don't see a dirt future with much glory for him.

[PhantomOnTour]

To me, the best 3yr old I saw run in routes this spring was R Heat Lightning.

[thaskalos]

To my eye, Shackleford is clearly best at the usual distances, just not at 1 1/2 miles.
Let's see now...

Animal Kingdom wins the Derby impressively, going away...and then is a hard-charging second by half a length, with a valid excuse, in the Preakness.

Shackleford is a half length victor in the Preakness, after repeatedly losing ground in the stretch - while registering ordinary-at-best speed figures - in his three prior graded stakes defeats...two of them at 9 furlongs.

And this makes SHACKLEFORD "clearly best" at the usual distances?

I don't see it...

[thaskalos]

To me, Shack is the ONLY 3yo who has done anything impressive all year.
The rest are there one race and then excuse after excuse.

When you go to the front, you control your destiny.


AK is going to grass or plastic I heard...good. I don't see a dirt future with much glory for him.
You say "the REST are there one race and then excuse after excuse"...

Did Shackleford run a SECOND impressive race, without and excuse...and I missed it?

Isn't the Preakness Shackleford's ONLY impressive race as well?

Wasn't AK's Preakness a more impressive SECOND BEST race, than any race Shack has ever run...Preakness notwithstanding?

What makes Shack so much more impressive than Animal Kingdom?

[PhantomOnTour]

Wanna see The Factor get back into the mix and hook up with Shackleford (BC Dirt Mile?...dream on...)somewhere later this year.

[horses4courses]

Let's see now...

Animal Kingdom wins the Derby impressively, going away...and then is a hard-charging second by half a length, with a valid excuse, in the Preakness.

Shackleford is a half length victor in the Preakness, after repeatedly losing ground in the stretch - while registering ordinary-at-best speed figures - in his three prior graded stakes defeats...two of them at 9 furlongs.

And this makes SHACKLEFORD "clearly best" at the usual distances?

I don't see it...

Agreed.

AK was the best in the Derby, a very close second in the Preakness, and ran his eyeballs out today after nearly coming down. Shackleford has more speed but less stamina than AK. Combining their efforts in the 3 TC races, AK was the superior horse, but not by much.

[lamboguy]

i thought all this years triple crown races were great. they were very tough races to come up with the winners though!

[Jasonm921]

I thought it was an entertaining TC. Give lots of credit to the connections of AK and Shack because they could have easily skipped this race.
Here are my pics from yesterday's Belmont Card.
WWW.FLICKR.COM/PHOTOS/EASYGOER

[BlueShoe]

With the TC series over it is time for the connections of many of these colts to come down to earth and run them where they belong. Several of them still have conditions and are eligible for second, third or even first level allowance races. The best ones will be at Saratoga, and it would be wise for most of the TC also rans to seek easier spots. A good but not great 3yr old colt can do well by running in carefully chosen spots. There are a lot of lesser stakes coming up with good purses all around the country.

[elysiantraveller]

Isn't the Preakness Shackleford's ONLY impressive race as well?

His Florida Derby was very impressive and he was the only one to survive the bias up front on KY Derby day to pick up a check. Yesterday he just ran into the wall of his distance limitations.

[Tom]

Thask.....Shack run a nice race in Florida before the derby, although a slow last fraction, then ran a decent Derby. His Preakness was good.
He was out there doing something. AK will not win many dirt races ( if any more) the way he has run his first two tries. Lost of horse come flying home late.

AV will be a toss at 8.5 - 9.0 furlongs, which is as far as any of these are ever going to go again, unless hey try the Travers.

[cj]

Let's see now...

Animal Kingdom wins the Derby impressively, going away...and then is a hard-charging second by half a length, with a valid excuse, in the Preakness.

Shackleford is a half length victor in the Preakness, after repeatedly losing ground in the stretch - while registering ordinary-at-best speed figures - in his three prior graded stakes defeats...two of them at 9 furlongs.

And this makes SHACKLEFORD "clearly best" at the usual distances?

I don't see it...

You don't think the track had something to do with Animal Kingdom winning the Derby? What was his valid excuse in the Preakness? Having no speed isn't really an excuse.

I'm no saying Shack is some superstar, just the best of a mediocre lot.

[cj]

To me, the best 3yr old I saw run in routes this spring was R Heat Lightning.

Think we'll see her on the track again?

[BlueShoe]

Just a thought about Shack. Assuming that he does have distance limitatations, would he not perhaps be a terrific sprinter if his connections chose to take that route? With his natural early lick coupled with his middle distance stamina would think that he would be very, very tough in sprints up to perhaps a one turn mile.

[Blenheim]

Interesting and rather confounding that so few favorites won any of the major preps. I was listening to the Belmont telecast and the announcer found that only two favorites have won any of the major preps in the last two years. They took a look a few decades back and favorites won, I believe the number was over 50% of the major preps.

Something is going on here w/the breed and it appears to be a troubling pattern - they're breeding for speed but the horse is getting slower; top flight horses can't win two races in a row; more time off in between races; any horse can win at any time as evidenced by in the Belmont and so many horses breaking down on the Triple Crown Trail.

No doubt these patterns will have an effect on handicapping - just hard to figure it in just yet . . .

[PhantomOnTour]

Think we'll see her on the track again?
Yes, but probably briefly if she doesn't pick up where she left off.
Don't wanna start another Pletcher thing, but....ya know.

[papillon]

shack out ran his pedigree yesterday pretty handily--just rewatched the belmont and shack held on for longer than a mile and a quarter. :cool:

it is undoubtedly true that shack is going to be more effective at shorter distances, but he isn't quality road faltering at the 3/4 pole and backing up to the parking lot. there is no reason to limit shack to sprints it the future. i'd try him at any race between a mile and a mile and quarter (so long as the competition makes sense).

i'm surprised at those who think shack ran poorly yesterday:

santiva had no excuse--he sat right off shack all the way, but began backing way up as soon as they hit they the mile marker.

mucho macho man was never in the race and had no excuse at all. he confirmed his preakness.

nehro was rested and was supposed to be able to get the distance but he only just barely passed shack at the wire. nehro had no excuse at all and only passed shack because, at that point, the big guy was crawling.

animal kingdom made an impressive move on the back stretch but still couldn't pass shack, even though(1) AK had closed within 3 lengths by the time they entered the final furlong, (2) shack was kaput, (3) AK had the forward momentum, and (4) AK was supposed to be able to get the distance. AK hung. don't get me wrong, i tip my hat to him. given what happened after the break, his final run was impressive--but he wasn't going to win that race no matter what, even without the bobble.

shack wasn't supposed to get the distance, but in the end, he fared better at the distance than many who were supposed to get it.

personally, i haven't seen any 3 year olds this year that i think have a chance against older horses in the BCC, but i still think shack has a great chance to be the 3 yr old champ.

to all who thought there was no way a forestry could get 12 furlongs--(1) did you expect shack hang on as long as he did? (2) did you expect him to be only slightly worse than nehro? (3) where did you expect him to finish--top 6 or bottom 6?

if you answer no, no, bottom 6, then you have to agree he didn't run that poorly.

[Casino]

shack out ran his pedigree yesterday pretty handily--just rewatched the belmont and shack held on for longer than a mile and a quarter. :cool:

it is undoubtedly true that shack is going to be more effective at shorter distances, but he isn't quality road faltering at the 3/4 pole and backing up to the parking lot. there is no reason to limit shack to sprints it the future. i'd try him at any race between a mile and a mile and quarter (so long as the competition makes sense).

i'm surprised at those who think shack ran poorly yesterday:

santiva had no excuse--he sat right off shack all the way, but began backing way up as soon as they hit they the mile marker.

mucho macho man was never in the race and had no excuse at all. he confirmed his preakness.

nehro was rested and was supposed to be able to get the distance but he only just barely passed shack at the wire. nehro had no excuse at all and only passed shack because, at that point, the big guy was crawling.

animal kingdom made an impressive move on the back stretch but still couldn't pass shack, even though(1) AK had closed within 3 lengths by the time they entered the final furlong, (2) shack was kaput, (3) AK had the forward momentum, and (4) AK was supposed to be able to get the distance. AK hung. don't get me wrong, i tip my hat to him. given what happened after the break, his final run was impressive--but he wasn't going to win that race no matter what, even without the bobble.

shack wasn't supposed to get the distance, but in the end, he fared better at the distance than many who were supposed to get it.

personally, i haven't seen any 3 year olds this year that i think have a chance against older horses in the BCC, but i still think shack has a great chance to be the 3 yr old champ.

to all who thought there was no way a forestry could get 12 furlongs--(1) did you expect shack hang on as long as he did? (2) did you expect him to be only slightly worse than nehro? (3) where did you expect him to finish--top 6 or bottom 6?

if you answer no, no, bottom 6, then you have to agree he didn't run that poorly.

Do you think the track bias yesterday favoring speed horses helped a bit?

[Wickel]

Very enjoyable Triple Crown. You have to give Nehro his due. After all, he beat Shackleford twice (Derby and Belmont), but just couldn't get over the hump. Seems like he was spinning his wheels for most of the Belmont, before spurting late. As for the rest of the 3YO season, don't count out Uncle Mo. He's presumably healthy, so he should be a factor in the Haskell, Travers, etc.

[Robert Fischer]

You don't think the track had something to do with Animal Kingdom winning the Derby? What was his valid excuse in the Preakness? Having no speed isn't really an excuse.

I'm no saying Shack is some superstar, just the best of a mediocre lot.

Why would Animal Kingdom need an excuse in the Preakness? He out ran the winner and didn't lose by much. Sometimes the race, track, and obstacles just don't go your way. Both Shack and AK ran a grade1 race in the Preakness. Shack had the track bias, he had JV failing to come up to the group once the initial fractions settled down(but we can't expect dream-rides, that stuff has to be allowed for), and Shack flat out ran a very good race. Shack showed some signs of faltering a little late, but it did not affect his time. For Animal Kingdom to have easily beat Shack under those circumstances he would have had to be 10 lengths better. he Preakness was a peak effort for Shack where all the planets aligned. - Good for him. Shack is a nice horse up to about 9f. He's already run Grade 1 races in the Preakness and IMO Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby. His KYD was a game effort - that was not an easy race to wire the field regardless of the numbers on the clock.

Everyone is entitled to pick their favorite horses. Animal Kingdom looked pretty good to me. I can't fault him at all for not winning the Preakness or the Belmont. He was clearly the best in the 1st 2 legs, and he was probably best in the Belmont(i haven't watched the bel closely enough yet, nor am i sure the extent of the problems from the incident).

As far as the crop being bad - at first i thought it may be sour grapes - that horseplayers who had done a poor job of evaluating the runners this year... with the total miss by many thinking Mo was a classic distance horse... on to the total miss of AK going into the derby... and many in between... However, I think it's more of this crop not being anything historical and having no fan-favorite that has dominated every race since the comical derby topLists have come out and the idea that these horses can't compare to our hero-horses of yesteryear.
Lebron James STINKS compared to Jordan....

[Robert Fischer]

Very enjoyable Triple Crown. You have to give Nehro his due. After all, he beat Shackleford twice (Derby and Belmont), but just couldn't get over the hump. Seems like he was spinning his wheels for most of the Belmont, before spurting late. As for the rest of the 3YO season, don't count out Uncle Mo. He's presumably healthy, so he should be a factor in the Haskell, Travers, etc.

Nehro was extremely solid in his 2 triple crown efforts.

The Belmont had 2 things going against Nehro 1.-he was too far back for that track and distance (which amplified ->)2. It looks like 10 furlongs may be about as long as he can go.

In the Derby he ran incredibly tough. He ran 8-11 lengths more distance(due to ground loss) than Shackleford and then beat him by a length to the wire. Wow. He equaled Animal Kingdoms ft/sec velocity per trakus in the Derby. Wow. It is however always a little tough to compare ground loss included performance to actually making a bold move.


If he came out of the series sound and in good health, Nehro should be in great shape. His body indicates he will continue to add strength. He obviously needs to sharpen up a little and find a happy medium between traking the pace and being able to make a bid.

[outofthebox]

Great year to own a 3yo. With no dominant force to reckon with, there's still a lot of money to be won this summer. These spring classics were fantastic wagering events. Hats off to the connections who ran in all 3 events...

[thaskalos]

You don't think the track had something to do with Animal Kingdom winning the Derby? What was his valid excuse in the Preakness? Having no speed isn't really an excuse.

I'm no saying Shack is some superstar, just the best of a mediocre lot.
You stated earlier that Animal Kingdom would not have won the Belmont, even with a clean trip; Would Shackleford have won the Derby...even if there was NO bias?

I am as sure that Shack would have lost the Derby - even under ideal circumstances - as YOU are that AK would have lost the Belmont.

Look CJ...I have no desire to get into another Zenyatta-like debate with you...

I respect your opinion...but in THIS case, I disagree with it.

There is NO WAY that I can look at these Triple Crown races, and come away with the impression that Shackleford is a better horse than Animal Kingdom!

[cj]

You stated earlier that Animal Kingdom would not have won the Belmont, even with a clean trip; Would Shackleford have won the Derby...even if there was NO bias?

I am as sure that Shack would have lost the Derby - even under ideal circumstances - as YOU are that AK would have lost the Belmont.

Look CJ...I have no desire to get into another Zenyatta-like debate with you...

I respect your opinion...but in THIS case, I disagree with it.

There is NO WAY that I can look at these Triple Crown races, and come away with the impression that Shackleford is a better horse than Animal Kingdom!
I think the two are pretty close, but give the edge to Shackleford. It isn't even really worth arguing about, neither is anything special. By the way,
what was the excuse in the Preakness?

[cj]

Why would Animal Kingdom need an excuse in the Preakness? He out ran the winner and didn't lose by much.

First, I never said he needed an excuse. The other poster said AK had a valid excuse, I was wondering what it is.

Second, he didn't outrun the winner. If he did, he would have won.

[PaceAdvantage]

There is NO WAY that I can look at these Triple Crown races, and come away with the impression that Shackleford is a better horse than Animal Kingdom!But you can look at the TC races and come away with the impression that AK is a better horse than Shackleford?

I don't see it.

Shackleford had an excuse in the Derby (bias), and AK had an excuse in the Belmont (rough trip). In the one race where neither had an excuse, Shack won.

How is AK the better horse again?

[thaskalos]

But you can look at the TC races and come away with the impression that AK is a better horse than Shackleford?

I don't see it.

Shackleford had an excuse in the Derby (bias), and AK had an excuse in the Belmont (rough trip). In the one race where neither had an excuse, Shack won.

How is AK the better horse again?
How much of a bias do you figure was in effect at the Derby, PA?

Everybody makes a big deal out of the fact that Shackleford was the only speed horse to survive the dreaded "bias" at the Derby. But who were those other speed horses who figured to be around at the finish...had it not been for this closer's bias?

Comma on top (35-1)...Decisive Moment (39-1)...and Pants On Fire (at a ridiculously low 8-1!)??

Of course there had to be a powerful track bias at work! How else could a stellar group of speed horses like these fail to be there at the finish of a mile and a quarter race, BUT for the closer's bias. :rolleyes:

Do you really think that Shackford could have beaten Animal Kingdom in the Derby...even on a FAIR racing surface?

Another question:

You saw the Belmont...where you yourself admitted that AK had a "rough trip". Whose Belmont race impressed you more...AK's or Shack's?

[PaceAdvantage]

I made a simple and clear cut statement. You still haven't really answered why AK is better than Shak, yet I am supposed to answer your questions?

I don't believe for one second AK is better than Shackelford, and their head-to-head record backs me up, for starters. Shack has beaten AK two out of three times.

If you work "excuses" into the book, Shack is still leading 1-0.

I don't know what else there is to add.

[thaskalos]

I made a simple and clear cut statement. You still haven't really answered why AK is better than Shak, yet I am supposed to answer your questions?

I don't believe for one second AK is better than Shackelford, and their head-to-head record backs me up, for starters. Shack has beaten AK two out of three times.

If you work "excuses" into the book, Shack is still leading 1-0.

I don't know what else there is to add.
Fair enough PA...we are still friends...

IMO...Animal Kingdom was WAY more impressive than Shackleford in TWO of their three meetings.

Order of finish does not necessarily prove true superiority in this game, you know...

[Sugar Ron]

AK's excuse in the Preak?

The overrated stiff who was on his back

Would've been his final ride on the colt if I was the owner.


Luckyford hitting the wall in that Bel lane was as predictable as the sun rising in the east, by the way.

[parlay]

But you can look at the TC races and come away with the impression that AK is a better horse than Shackleford?

I don't see it.

Shackleford had an excuse in the Derby (bias), and AK had an excuse in the Belmont (rough trip). In the one race where neither had an excuse, Shack won.

How is AK the better horse again?

I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere but ...
I felt that the Pimlico track was biased towards speed
on Preakness day.
To my eye, and i have no statistical proof of my assertion,
closers were not overtaking the early horses.

In my opinion AK has proven himself a champion of his age group.
I believe we have not seen the best of him yet.

[toussaud]

i still think by november bind will be the best 3YO of this crop
nevermind

[toetoe]

You don't think the track had something to do with Animal Kingdom winning the Derby? What was his valid excuse in the Preakness?


How slow would the Derby fractions have to be for you to consider the bias irrelevant ?
By the same token, are you saying the track had nothing to do with the Preakness result ? It seems we can assign some bias to every track every day.

[toetoe]

But you can look at the TC races and come away with the impression that AK is a better horse than Shackleford?

I don't see it.

Shackleford had an excuse in the Derby (bias), and AK had an excuse in the Belmont (rough trip). In the one race where neither had an excuse, Shack won.

How is AK the better horse again?


The data are sketchy, but how about this ? A.K. had two T.C. finishes in the money (exacta, even), whereas S'ford had one in and two out. Strictly speaking Belmontwise, Ruler On Ice is as accomplished as either. :rolleyes:

I am happy for Forestry, a sire with whom I have always been merely whelmed.

[PaceAdvantage]

AK's excuse in the Preak?

The overrated stiff who was on his back

Would've been his final ride on the colt if I was the owner.


Luckyford hitting the wall in that Bel lane was as predictable as the sun rising in the east, by the way.Some wall...he still beat Animal Kingdom...and came within a few inches of holding off the much vaunted (and overhyped) Nehro, who supposedly had better breeding and was supposedly a better closer... :lol:

[Tom]

I think there were some very important handicapping lessons to be learned from the whole triple crown season this year.


If anyone figures out what they were, let me know! :confused:

[cj]

How slow would the Derby fractions have to be for you to consider the bias irrelevant ?
By the same token, are you saying the track had nothing to do with the Preakness result ? It seems we can assign some bias to every track every day.

Strong biases supersede everything. I don't think there was much of a bias on Preakness day.

[jsk42069]

Im still thinking,whos is the best 3 year old heading into the summer classics?If healthy is Uncle Mo still a major player?Will Dialed In rebound?

Before the derby most knew very little about this crop after the triple crown races we know less.

I will stay on the Jaycito bandwagon plenty of room.
It was tough with the sloppy Belmont but I think if that track was not a disaster Animal Kingdom would have been right up in the mix again battling for First. Its tough to throw that horse out. I am disappointed that at the age of 32 there has never been a Triple crown winner in my lifetime. I think they need to start training the horses to actually win a triple crown instead of basing everything on speed. A triple crown winner would be great for horse racing but that is a whole new topic.

It would be nice to see a Uncle Mo and Animal Kingdom go at it in the same race

[jsk42069]

I think there were some very important handicapping lessons to be learned from the whole triple crown season this year.


If anyone figures out what they were, let me know! :confused:
when the track is extremely sloppy horse racing becomes a lottery..lol, pick some longshots with some freshness and if you get lucky smile on your way to the bank.

[Sugar Ron]

I think there were some very important handicapping lessons to be learned from the whole triple crown season this year.


If anyone figures out what they were, let me know! :confused:

Well, we learned why Forestry colts shouldn't be contesting 12-furlong races, for one.

Thankfully, they still can't cheat their pedigrees at that great classic distance...

[Sugar Ron]

Some wall...he still beat Animal Kingdom...and came within a few inches of holding off the much vaunted (and overhyped) Nehro, who supposedly had better breeding and was supposedly a better closer... :lol:

He looked like a punch-drunk fighter staggering to the finish.

Kinda reminded me of RA's 10-furlong exposure at Toga last year.

[Blenheim]

I think there were some very important handicapping lessons to be learned from the whole triple crown season this year.


If anyone figures out what they were, let me know! :confused:

I think I've learned a few lessons.

"Certain patterns have become well established in centuries of Thoroughbred racing. The running condition of the horses improves and declines in cycles familiar enough to make sudden reversals of form both noticeable and suspect. The class, or quality, of horses is also patterned, as is races in which the early stages are run at unusually fast or slow speeds. For these reasons and many others, race results themselves follow what might be termed a pattern of reasonable predictability. (Ainslie)

As the Thoroughbred is changing the "pattern of reasonable predictability" is also changing. Once reliable patterns are no longer evident: sound and stout horses racing once a week or every other week - gone; long racing careers - gone; horses bred for distance - gone; horses running and winning on different surfaces at different venues - gone; horses bred to carry weight - gone; horses getting faster - gone; dominant horses - gone; Triple Crown Winner - long gone and likely never to return. NO doubt there are many other examples. The breakdown of the pattern of reasonable predictability is having a direct and negative effect on handicapping. Last I read favorites win one in three, this may no longer be true. Just for starters, how many favorites have won Derby preps in the past two years? According to the Belmont telecast, that answer is one. It would be interesting to know if favorites are still winning a third of the time. I think not. What will become of the game when handicappers can no longer predict who will win?

One of the lessons I have taken away from this Derby Trail is I need to learn to adjust my handicapping to account for the changing patterns of predictability.

[PaceAdvantage]

What does that say about all the overhyped breeding that finished behind him? Or the one who stuck his neck in front of him right at the wire?

Your indictments of Shackleford just make the horse you backed look even worse...how funny is that?

He looked like a punch-drunk fighter staggering to the finish.

Kinda reminded me of RA's 10-furlong exposure at Toga last year.

[PaceAdvantage]

Don't favorites win at a higher rate on off tracks compared to dry tracks?

when the track is extremely sloppy horse racing becomes a lottery..lol, pick some longshots with some freshness and if you get lucky smile on your way to the bank.

[Tom]

I don't think any favorite 3yos won this year on any surface, did they?

[Tom]

Just heard an idea that is worth looking into - on Byk's show, Monday, he had a clocker in hour #2, and he thought that having the rail set outside for 10 days leading up to Saturday left the inside paths in very good condition.
I will definitely look at back races to see if this pans out.

[Pell Mell]

I think there were some very important handicapping lessons to be learned from the whole triple crown season this year.


If anyone figures out what they were, let me know! :confused:

If a gelding runs a little in the Sunland Derby and catches a sloppy track in a triple crown race it's an automatic bet. :lol:

[FenceBored]

If a gelding runs a little in the Sunland Derby and catches a sloppy track in a triple crown race it's an automatic bet. :lol:

Good point, and with Plum Pretty's win in the Ky Oaks added to Ruler on Ice's Belmont win the guys at Sunland Park certainly have to be smiling.

[Spiderman]

I don't think any favorite 3yos won this year on any surface, did they?
Dialed In, Fla Derby paid $7.00+

The Baffert Bullet train was a favorite winner.

[nijinski]

Don't favorites win at a higher rate on off tracks compared to dry tracks?

You're probably right . In the Classics though there are not as many scratches as your average race day sloppy/muddy track so handicapping is a little more of a task if you haven't seen them experience off tracks.

[keithw84]

Dialed In, Fla Derby paid $7.00+

The Baffert Bullet train was a favorite winner.

Dialed In was the second choice after Soldat.

Someone asked about favorites winning in the last two years. I know Eskendereya was favored in last year's Wood. Not sure if there are any others.

[keithw84]

I think I've learned a few lessons.

"Certain patterns have become well established in centuries of Thoroughbred racing. The running condition of the horses improves and declines in cycles familiar enough to make sudden reversals of form both noticeable and suspect. The class, or quality, of horses is also patterned, as is races in which the early stages are run at unusually fast or slow speeds. For these reasons and many others, race results themselves follow what might be termed a pattern of reasonable predictability. (Ainslie)

As the Thoroughbred is changing the "pattern of reasonable predictability" is also changing. Once reliable patterns are no longer evident: sound and stout horses racing once a week or every other week - gone; long racing careers - gone; horses bred for distance - gone; horses running and winning on different surfaces at different venues - gone; horses bred to carry weight - gone; horses getting faster - gone; dominant horses - gone; Triple Crown Winner - long gone and likely never to return. NO doubt there are many other examples. The breakdown of the pattern of reasonable predictability is having a direct and negative effect on handicapping. Last I read favorites win one in three, this may no longer be true. Just for starters, how many favorites have won Derby preps in the past two years? According to the Belmont telecast, that answer is one. It would be interesting to know if favorites are still winning a third of the time. I think not. What will become of the game when handicappers can no longer predict who will win?

One of the lessons I have taken away from this Derby Trail is I need to learn to adjust my handicapping to account for the changing patterns of predictability.

Could these changing patterns be cyclical too? If the breed continues to get more frail and distance-limited, won't a few outliers from more "common" stock eventually be able to beat their "classier" rivals more often and reverse the trends?

[Blenheim]

It will be interesting to see if they are cyclical. But I tend to think some of the qualities listed will never return - guess we'll see. Another major concern I have is when they ban doping on race day. How will that effect the performance of the Thoroughbred? How will the horses run drug free?

[Tom]

One last thought.....Pool Party wins the Gr 1 Foster today in is first dirt start ever, ala AK.

Is CD favoring to poly horses?
Was AKs victory more about the track than the horse?

In the few years we have had poly tracks, horse coming to the Derby from running on them have fared well - Street Sense, PON, AK, I think a couple more were close up. Zenyatta ran well over it.......just thinking out loud.

My DB will be churning tonight.

[Tom]

Steve Byk has an interview with Mark Casse in the second half of hour #1
on Monday's show. This very topic came up......

[Cardus]

One last thought.....Pool Party wins the Gr 1 Foster today in is first dirt start ever, ala AK.

Is CD favoring to poly horses?
Was AKs victory more about the track than the horse?

In the few years we have had poly tracks, horse coming to the Derby from running on them have fared well - Street Sense, PON, AK, I think a couple more were close up. Zenyatta ran well over it.......just thinking out loud.

My DB will be churning tonight.

Street Sense not only had dirt form, but it was Churchill Downs form (and on a big racing day, too).

While Pioneerofthenile ran second, he didn't run well, so I do not know if he helps answer your above question.

[Tom]

Street Sense not only had dirt form, but it was Churchill Downs form (and on a big racing day, too).

While Pioneerofthenile ran second, he didn't run well, so I do not know if he helps answer your above question.

That is the point - SS ran well at CD and over Poly.
PON ran well enough to get 2nd, to a monster horse that day....who had also shown some ability over poly at WO, the previous year.