Robert Fischer
06-11-2011, 06:25 PM
Normally jockeys play minimal role... Bias - usually not unless extreme
@ 12 furlongs variables are multiplied
first the bias - It appears that forwardly placed is the place to be.
Some people were hyped up about Justin Phillip winning, but he was an overlay at 4-1 and figured a good wager on even a fair track.
A fairly significant speed bias will help forwardly placed runners today, but these horses will still be who they are.
Why Jockeys here ? - The two standout horses here are NEHRO AND ANIMAL KINGDOM. NEHRO is confused by some as a deep closer. NEHRO showed he should be more forwardly placed at a classic distance when he was forwardly placed in the Kentucky Derby. NEHRO beat SHACKLEFORD BY 12 effective lengths in the Derby, and he hit the wire going 2MPH faster.
THE ONLY WAY NEHRO LOSES TO SHACKLEFORD today is if Nakatani or NEHRO make a serious error early in the race.
ANIMAL KINGDOM has quantifiable QUALITY, while NEHRO is a great 3yo so far while having to ALLOW for ground loss... you have to give Animal Kingdom the edge there. In THE DERBY Animal Kingdom and Nehro were about exactly equal when considering ground loss - although I do think being forwardly placed was harder in the Derby than closing in the stretch - for the simple fact that so many closed pretty well from that same position.
The others = it is a significant step down but BRILLIANT SPEED is a win contender, as is RULER ON ICE. RULER ON ICE is a great price so gets included.
PRIME CUT, and STAY THIRSTY are temptations for the bottom of trifectas and supers as they may get a a forward trip.
MASTER OF HOUNDS IS A TOSS at this big UNDERLAY, but could be in the bottom exotics should he get a surprisingly FORWARD TRIP.
SHACKLEFORD CAN HANG ON FOR THE BOTTOM EXOTICS SHOULD THE BIAS BE STRONG. His only chance is if everybody disrespects him and gives him a 5 length lead on easy pace and doesn't make a run until the stretch.
--- there you go.
AK AND NEHRO BEST, NEHRO some value = their jockeys can hurt them if they start too deep and wait until too late to start actually running. BRILLIANT SPEED AND RULER ON ICE ARE THE OVERLAYS
@ 12 furlongs variables are multiplied
first the bias - It appears that forwardly placed is the place to be.
Some people were hyped up about Justin Phillip winning, but he was an overlay at 4-1 and figured a good wager on even a fair track.
A fairly significant speed bias will help forwardly placed runners today, but these horses will still be who they are.
Why Jockeys here ? - The two standout horses here are NEHRO AND ANIMAL KINGDOM. NEHRO is confused by some as a deep closer. NEHRO showed he should be more forwardly placed at a classic distance when he was forwardly placed in the Kentucky Derby. NEHRO beat SHACKLEFORD BY 12 effective lengths in the Derby, and he hit the wire going 2MPH faster.
THE ONLY WAY NEHRO LOSES TO SHACKLEFORD today is if Nakatani or NEHRO make a serious error early in the race.
ANIMAL KINGDOM has quantifiable QUALITY, while NEHRO is a great 3yo so far while having to ALLOW for ground loss... you have to give Animal Kingdom the edge there. In THE DERBY Animal Kingdom and Nehro were about exactly equal when considering ground loss - although I do think being forwardly placed was harder in the Derby than closing in the stretch - for the simple fact that so many closed pretty well from that same position.
The others = it is a significant step down but BRILLIANT SPEED is a win contender, as is RULER ON ICE. RULER ON ICE is a great price so gets included.
PRIME CUT, and STAY THIRSTY are temptations for the bottom of trifectas and supers as they may get a a forward trip.
MASTER OF HOUNDS IS A TOSS at this big UNDERLAY, but could be in the bottom exotics should he get a surprisingly FORWARD TRIP.
SHACKLEFORD CAN HANG ON FOR THE BOTTOM EXOTICS SHOULD THE BIAS BE STRONG. His only chance is if everybody disrespects him and gives him a 5 length lead on easy pace and doesn't make a run until the stretch.
--- there you go.
AK AND NEHRO BEST, NEHRO some value = their jockeys can hurt them if they start too deep and wait until too late to start actually running. BRILLIANT SPEED AND RULER ON ICE ARE THE OVERLAYS