Back-to-Back Shack Attack?

[PaceAdvantage]

I hear all the talk about Shackleford having these distance limitations...getting lucky to just hang on in the Preakness...getting passed by three horses in the Derby despite setting a soft pace...

I just watched Steven Crist give very plausible reasons why you should look beyond Shackleford even in the bottom of your exactas...I read where CJ wrote that horses who run consistently faster early vs. late (on his numbers...numbers which in fact I am using) have a poor record in winning the Belmont.

And you know what? I don't care. And you know what else? I hope you all buy into all of that, because I think what is going to end up happening, is that Shackleford is going to be, yet again, a very nice bet in terms of an overlay.

I'm going to do my formal write up tomorrow night, so I want to save some words for the front page...

But as of tonight, all of my handicapping instincts are SCREAMING at me to bet this horse right back.

What say you?

(and let's try and keep this thread about your opinion of Shackleford only...thanks in advance).

[PhantomOnTour]

Can't dismiss the dominant pace horse at any distance, ever. His total pace ratings (avg fraction/avg pace, whatever)are the best of this bunch. He's the fastest through 4f, through 6f, through 1m, and really digs in when the closers come to him. He's a tough package. Reminds me of Hard Spun.
Looking for big sandy to be tightly packed big sandy, like it is near the water and not way up the beach, ya know?

At this point no one should really question Castanon....BUT...how often has he ridden at Bel? Any chance he will "get lost on the turn" as I hear so many folks talk about? By "lost on the turn" do they mean that jocks lose track of their position in regards to the track dimensions and push the button too soon/late?

[Some_One]

Big difference on Sat vs 2 weeks ago is from getting 12s to 4s. I don't think you can take any short prices, field is really bunched together.

[Jasonm921]

Phantom....I think you are right, they are going to water this track to death after the last two days. Also lets see how the 20+ degree change effects the track.

[nijinski]

I don't think his post position is going to help him here , there's that chance of him losing ground early and I think he'll be passed earlier than in the Derby.
I'll still take alook at him in the post parade , but I would have preferrred to see him freshened and come back at the Spa at a shorter distance.

[turninforhome10]

I agree. First off, early this winter, I said "no way a Forestry can compete going two turns in graded stakes company, they are sprinters". Strike one. Next, I thought " well he is just precocious, the others will catch up soon". Strike two. Now, before the Derby, "this is one acid test he will fail miserably". Strike three.
While Shackleford did not win the Derby, his effort was all but a winning one. He stayed on very well, on a track that was quite taxing to front runners.Hildas Passion came back very well and won next out. While Aikenite struggled.
Belmont itself has to be a bit overwhelming to a young horse. The place is vast, and many have gotten lost on the outside fence at "big sandy". Big Brown was a lock to many, only to feel miles from nowhere on the back side.
It takes a horse with courage and a willingness to give everything to find the wire first.
When I think of the Belmont, it reminds much of the old starter series type races, mile, mile and half, you know.Anyway, speed seemed to get more dangerous the further they went. The horse with the best way of going( fluent stride and good mechanics) could get the lead a just two minute lick home. The point in the race that the speed quits, the horse that was in front just held on. Closers are an illusion, very few horses can run faster at the end of a mile and half, the are just moving to the line faster than the others horses that are going backwards. Give me one Seattle Slew vs 10 Victory Gallops and the horse that has the lead after a mile will always threaten for the win. These are what I call the 3 %'s. The horse that has the best influences of the breed. Muscle efficiency, fluidity of movement, easily conditioned and the ability to stay conditioned, and most of all the ability to maintain a high cruising speed while staying in the bit.
All the above being spoken, what I have seen from Shackleford, the horse is probably the gamest of the three year olds. Without going into a whole schpeil on speed figures and what-not, he brings his A-game each time.He is running with the will to win. His ability to maintain a high cruising speed is not in question. He has already outrun his pedigree. And from his appearance, he is thriving on the training. His ability to carry the 1 1/2 distance is less of a question than who will be the sacrifice to try and run with him early. He could be a 3% and if Dale Romans does right by the horse, he could be special.
Would look forward to a rivalry between Animal Kingdom and Shack to develop from Sat. Sometimes a good rivalry can help the sport advertise more than a triple crown winner.

[Pell Mell]

I hear all the talk about Shackleford having these distance limitations...getting lucky to just hang on in the Preakness...getting passed by three horses in the Derby despite setting a soft pace...

I just watched Steven Crist give very plausible reasons why you should look beyond Shackleford even in the bottom of your exactas...I read where CJ wrote that horses who run consistently faster early vs. late (on his numbers...numbers which in fact I am using) have a poor record in winning the Belmont.

And you know what? I don't care. And you know what else? I hope you all buy into all of that, because I think what is going to end up happening, is that Shackleford is going to be, yet again, a very nice bet in terms of an overlay.

I'm going to do my formal write up tomorrow night, so I want to save some words for the front page...

But as of tonight, all of my handicapping instincts are SCREAMING at me to bet this horse right back.

What say you?

(and let's try and keep this thread about your opinion of Shackleford only...thanks in advance).

I will agree with you to a point. I, as you, won't go into all the details right now, but IF Shack is allowed to throttle down as he did in the derby and preakness, he will be hard to catch. In my opinion, the horse that told the story of what really happened in the derby is Nehro.
See my blog for the details.

[098poi]

There was someone on At the Races last week who said that in the past when the Derby winner and the preakness winner meet in the Belmont it is more likely that the Preakness winner will win BUT if neither of them win the Derby winner is more likely to beat the Preakness winner in the race. So maybe Shac will win or be off the board. When I get to work I'll see if I can find the replay and post tonight if anyone is interested.

[FenceBored]

There was someone on At the Races last week who said that in the past when the Derby winner and the preakness winner meet in the Belmont it is more likely that the Preakness winner will win BUT if neither of them win the Derby winner is more likely to beat the Preakness winner in the race. So maybe Shac will win or be off the board. When I get to work I'll see if I can find the replay and post tonight if anyone is interested.

Conversation with Jon White at the top of hour 3 of Monday June 6th's show.

This will be the 22nd rubber match in the history of the Triple Crown, for the Belmont Stakes. 21 previous times there has been the Derby winner and the Preakness winner clashing in the Belmont Stakes. And in those 21, on those 21 occasions the Preakness winner has won the Belmont 10 times, the Derby winner has won 5 times, and 6 times neither the Derby winner nor the Preakness winner won the Belmont Stakes. And it's kind of interesting too, that in the 6 times that neither the Derby winner nor the Preakness winner won the Belmont, when they had the rubber match, the Derby winner defeated the Preakness winner each time. So, when neither one of the wins. So, in other words, if neither Animal Kingdom nor Shackleford win the Belmont, if history continues, if the pattern continues that would mean that Animal Kingdom will defeat Shackleford. On the other hand, if one of the two wins it would seem that just off of the history Shackleford's got the better chance than Animal Kingdom in terms of the fact that 10 Preakness winners have won in the rubber matches and 5 Derby winners.
-- http://thoroughbredracingradionetwork.com/images/stories/audio/060611c.mp3 (http://thoroughbredracingradionetwork.com/images/stories/audio/060611c.mp3) (starting at 6:00)

Details in his ExpressBet.com column (http://www.expressbet.com/iframe/article.aspx?id=2657).

Byk then points out that in the rubber matches, since 1963 only Swale has won the Derby/Belmont and you have 7 times the Preakness winner has won, so the recent history really points toward Shackleford.

[lamboguy]

no question from a betting standpoint that shack will offer great value after winning the preakness. for whatever reason this has been an in and out type horse. for sure he can win. i am going for Nehro because he is an improving horse and with alot of upside to this race. the horse was not a great workhorse that has turned out to be a star in the morning. he really looks like an amazing horse to me and i don't know if Shak can beat this horses if he runs his best possible race.

[lamboguy]

i forgot something

my bet for the belmont is Nehro w-p-s

[precocity]

i forgot something

my bet for the belmont is Nehro w-p-s
nehro wp big!!!!!!!! :cool:

[lamboguy]

horseracing is strickly an opinion. i have been wrong more often that not picking horses, but this one does play the part and might be fooling me but i have to take my best shot at it. if he don't get by the shack shame on me!

[Sugar Ron]

Extremely difficult to cheat the pedigree at this distance

Would be SHOCKED if Luckyford prevailed here.

[elysiantraveller]

I tend to agree with Mike, if he doesn't hit the wall he will win.

Just glad to see people lining up to bet a 3-1 Maiden in the Belmont. :D

[lamboguy]

I tend to agree with Mike, if he doesn't hit the wall he will win.

Just glad to see people lining up to bet a 3-1 Maiden in the Belmont. :D
who is the 3-1 maiden in this race?

[theguarantee]

Andy Serling made essentially the same exact points as PA via twitter last night. I personally planned on, and still plan on, basically tossing Shack, but that does make me re-think it a touch.

[lamboguy]

Andy Serling made essentially the same exact points as PA via twitter last night. I personally planned on, and still plan on, basically tossing Shack, but that does make me re-think it a touch.Shack should have the lead, a better plan would be to wait to see how the track is playing tomorrow. if speed wins every race, it will be tough to beat the Shack. there are other horses in the race with decent tactical speed though that might give him a small problem toward the end of the race

[elysiantraveller]

who is the 3-1 maiden in this race?

Nehro

[BlueShoe]

As I stated on another thread, love Shack in the Belmont. In the Preakness he dueled with the fast sprinter Flashpoint early and still was able to hold off AK late. He catches a relatively paceless field with nothing even remotely as quick as Flashpoint early. Unless he trips on the distance should be long gone on the front end.

[Some_One]

Well if the brits are right, you might still get a good price on Shack, he's currently at 8s on Betfair with AK 5/2, Nehro 4/1 and MoH 7.5/1

[smokinjoe@bp]

Nehro
Nehro (KY)


Current Entries:
Past Performances
Belmont Park 6/11/11 Race 11 Belmont S. Entries By Race Full Card
$.50 $2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Results:

Churchill Downs 5/07/11 Race 11 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands - Gr.1 Chart
Oaklawn Park 4/16/11 Race 11 Arkansas Derby - Gr.1 Chart
Fair Grounds 3/26/11 Race 10 Louisiana Derby - Gr.2 Chart
Oaklawn Park 2/21/11 Race 8 Maiden Special Weight Chart
Oaklawn Park 1/15/11 Race 6 Maiden Special Weight Chart
Fair Grounds 12/12/10 Race 8 Maiden Special Weight Chart
See All Results

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Current Workout:

Belmont Park 6/06/11 Dirt 4F 50.88 Breezing Rank 30/33

Churchill Downs 5/30/11 Dirt 6F 1:12.20 Breezing Rank 1/4


Churchill Downs 5/16/11 Dirt 4F 50.80 Breezing Rank 17/27


Churchill Downs 5/02/11 Dirt 4F 51.20 Breezing Rank 34/38


Churchill Downs 4/25/11 Dirt 5F 1:02.80 Breezing Rank 18/25


Oaklawn Park 4/11/11 Dirt 4F 49.40 Breezing Rank 6/16


Last 60 days

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2011 Racing Summary:

Starts Firsts Seconds Thirds Earnings Rank
5 1 3 0 $ 822,920 4/100
See 2011 Year-to-Date for all Horses

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Career Racing Summary:

Starts Firsts Seconds Thirds Earnings
6 1 3 0 $ 825,140

[elysiantraveller]

Never beaten winners... trying at three different tracks... at three different distances... against three different winners...

And people want a piece of that at 3-1/7-2 in the toughest, most grueling, dirt race in this country... Even if he wins thats a bad bet.

[lamboguy]

Never beaten winners... trying at three different tracks... at three different distances... against three different winners...

And people want a piece of that at 3-1/7-2 in the toughest, most grueling, dirt race in this country... Even if he wins thats a bad bet.never did win a second race but did beat the shack. this is horseracing though, and your opinion and my opinon is what makes a market!

i personally was involved in a never win 2 horse in the belmont and i was the fool in that circumstance. this is a different day though with a great trainer that knows how to read a racing form.

[elysiantraveller]

never did win a second race but did beat the shack

With a bias... Like is said using the Derby as the measuring post for these horses is the wrong approach... People loving AK will be very nervous when he is 10+ off the lead at the half.

My opinion.

[precocity]

these jockeys know whats up with shack and his speed I'm sure they are going to shoot some different tactics at him... :rolleyes:

[elysiantraveller]

these jockeys know whats up with shack and his speed I'm sure they are going to shoot some different tactics at him... :rolleyes:

What is Animal Kingdom going to do? Use more energy to stay closer in a longer race? Go up and pressure him...?

I don't really know what these jockeys are going to do with the horse thats the speed who has proven he can put away anything on the front with him.

This isn't gallop racer.

Jockeys are going to be watching his ass and hoping he hits the wall.

[lamboguy]

no question i think that Shack is an amazing animal after his last race. i just think that Nehro is more amazing. i am going to repeat this, if the prior races of the day produce all front end speed winners Shack will be tough to beat. if the track plays fair i got to love Nehro.

[precocity]

What is Animal Kingdom going to do? Use more energy to stay closer in a longer race? Go up and pressure him...?

I don't really know what these jockeys are going to do with the horse thats the speed who has proven he can put away anything on the front with him.

This isn't gallop racer.

Jockeys are going to be watching his ass and hoping he hits the wall.
good I hope Santiva gallops pass shack azz :D

[theguarantee]

no question i think that Shack is an amazing animal after his last race. i just think that Nehro is more amazing. i am going to repeat this, if the prior races of the day produce all front end speed winners Shack will be tough to beat. if the track plays fair i got to love Nehro.

Well, I'm with you lambo, I too like Nehro. The bias doesn't bother me much either way though, as I stated before, Nehro has semi-proved he can stay up close or come from off the pace. The only way to read Shack's KD performance as better than Nehro's is if you think the outside was the place to be ala Park in the slop or something. Because Nehro chased him wide the whole way and put him away in the stretch (with some serious effort needed though)....clearly, I would expect Nehro to be placed a bit further back this time and if no one goes with Shack that could be enough to turn the tables and Shack is just gone.
With all that said, AK, who I want to try to beat, is really the only horse that concerns me much in backing Nehro since he blew past him with such ease in the KD. But if you factor Nehro's trip and think there was a closing bias that day (as opposed to an outside bias) then for me at least, I prefer Nehro.
I could see liking any of the three as well as a few of the price horses, but to me, Nehro should win this....but I've been wrong before...

[lamboguy]

in this business we all have. i think i will be betting more on a race at colonial tomorrow than the belmont stakes.

i lost the kentucky derby bet that i made, smalll but a loss[

i stepped up for the preakness and bet animal kingdom to show

i am betting more tomorrow if the track is fair on nehro w-p-s

if track plays to speed i will bet nehro for much less

[Robert Fischer]

go shack

[Pell Mell]

When it comes race time, I'm thinking, judged on all the comments, AK will be THE overlay in the race. :ThmbUp:

[ArlJim78]

Leaving aside the question of value, I tend to agree that Shackleford could turn out to be tough in the Belmont. I can't dismiss him and I'm as surprised as anyone to be saying that about a Forestry colt. My best guess is that he gets beat late by a fresh Nehro or by Animal Kingdom, but I would not be shocked if he slips away and never looks back. I don't think the extra distance is necessarily going to make it any easier to get by him, and if someone wants to get silly and set a quick pace I think he has the ability to sit off of it and bide his time.

[Pell Mell]

We all have our opinions and that's what makes horse racing. IMHO, because of the way the pace was backed up in the latter part of both the Derby and Preakness, and considering his start in the Preakness, AK put in two amazing sustained drives to finish where he did both times. If he has a 1/2 decent position I think he can run any of them down, Zenyatta style...although I would like to see Smith riding him.:ThmbUp:

[Leparoux]

MMM at 10-1 is very intriguing. AK is legit chalk here and his workout does nothing to suggest that he may be sluggish. He has fired every time out and the distance should be a +. It's horse racing, I understand taking a stand against him (especially at 7-5 or so) but he is the best animal to date.

[papillon]

well, it's probably not a surprise but i'm all in on shack for the belmont. i've been with him ever since he came within a nose of letting me cash a $20 win ticket on him at 68-1 in the fl derby (if anyone's curious, that's why dialed in has never won again--i cursed him after that race so that he would never win another one :D )

for those that question if shack can go the distance, watch his gallop outs in the fl derby, the ky derby, and the preakness. those aren't the gallop outs of a tired, sore horse--that horse psychologist pegged him perfectly when he said, he has release issues :D (dear senor castanon, please do not let shack lose touch with the field less than a furlong from the wire).

but even if he doesn't cross the wire first saturday, if he runs a game and gusty race again, he still wins in my book.

:12: allez shack! :12:

[Casino]

I hear all the talk about Shackleford having these distance limitations...getting lucky to just hang on in the Preakness...getting passed by three horses in the Derby despite setting a soft pace...

I just watched Steven Crist give very plausible reasons why you should look beyond Shackleford even in the bottom of your exactas...I read where CJ wrote that horses who run consistently faster early vs. late (on his numbers...numbers which in fact I am using) have a poor record in winning the Belmont.

And you know what? I don't care. And you know what else? I hope you all buy into all of that, because I think what is going to end up happening, is that Shackleford is going to be, yet again, a very nice bet in terms of an overlay.

I'm going to do my formal write up tomorrow night, so I want to save some words for the front page...

But as of tonight, all of my handicapping instincts are SCREAMING at me to bet this horse right back.

What say you?

(and let's try and keep this thread about your opinion of Shackleford only...thanks in advance).

PA if you had to take a guess what odds will he be loading the gate?And what odds are you willing to accept?

[Rackon]

I'm don't completely buy the received wisdom regarding Shack's distance limited pedigree either. His Derby loss was better than it looked (as AK's Preakness loss IMO was a good race).

I don't see much pace pressure up front for Shack in the Belmont. I think he must be taken seriously as the controlling speed in here - who elese is gonna contest for the lead? Prime Cut? If they send him like they say they intend to lord have mercy on him cuz Shack sure won't. Shack doesn't need the lead and can lay of PC and pass him at will. Pace will make this race. I dunno that Shack can hang til the finish line but I respect him and won't leave him out of my wagering.

As for the Preaknes, Shack won it and AK lost it in the first quarter of the Preakness, Shack by his fast opening stringing out the field, AK by breaking slowly and getting 18 lengths back. Neither of them look gutted to me by the TC campaign.

I know it's chalky but I still tend like the same horses I liked in the KD: AK, Nehro, Shack, MMM. Arch3 was on my KD ticket and of course he's retired. I also wonder if Master Of Hounds might grab a piece. Brilliant Speed has the pedigree for the distance but I don't like a deep closer in this race. The new shooters do not impress me. I could be dead wrong, but I can't find much to like about Stay Thirsty, Prime Cut or Monzon.

This is a really interesting handicapping challenge.

[calltopost]

...who else is gonna contest for the lead? Prime Cut? If they send him like they say they intend to lord have mercy on him cuz Shack sure won't.

Rack I like PRIME CUT - partially because I think his last race was better than the books say. I will make a bet with you that he finishes more impressively than you think.

[Rackon]

So you think he can contest the lead with Shack out of the gate and still be in top 3 at finish? If that's the race shape I'll take you up on that. :)

[toussaud]

i really like shackleford in this race the more i look at it. I think he's going to run the best race he has run so far.


i don't think we have seen his best yet

[soupman2]

Just wondering how many times in a Triple Crown race there were actually "slow fractions" that would allow a horse like Shackleford to get out in front and stay out in front. Aren't they allways run balls-to-the-wall so to speak?

[thaskalos]

IMO...Shackleford proved to be razor sharp in the Preakness mainly because of the cutback in distance from the mile and a quarter Derby.

Now, the tables are turned. The distance gets much LONGER, and - eventhough Shack figures to have an easier time on the front end in the Belmont - he has proven, with his run in the Derby, that he has distance issues over 1 1/4 miles...even with an easy lead.

I predict a Belmont similar to the Derby...but with an extra quarter mile added on...and I doubt that this is going to be to Shackleford's liking.

Out of the money, I say...

[Robert Fischer]

Just wondering how many times in a Triple Crown race there were actually "slow fractions" that would allow a horse like Shackleford to get out in front and stay out in front. Aren't they allways run balls-to-the-wall so to speak?

not saying hes my pick or anything but Shack did a pretty strong pace in the Derby. Not too many races are like that but the numerical times weren't a real great description of how fast he was going.

Sure a pure sprinter selling out in the first 5furlongs would have passed shack in the derby, but he was going pretty good in the derby.

[riskman]

Shack has proved to be tenacious and hopefully will save enough on or near the lead and cross the wire first.Do not see any serious challengers on the front end but stranger things can happen ie,Stay Thirsty or MMM may try to mix it up with Shack. Do not expect fast early fractions, but do expect the Shack to take the lead or sit very close. If the distance proves too much for the Shack then AK,MOH Nehro,Santiva figure for the win.I like Shack to win.

[turninforhome10]

On the lead the whole way, after being hung in the parking lot on the first turn (Valdivia was riding what horse or the whole field), Birdrun pulls away down the stretch. What a day for Mr Mott.
Birdrun had the lead through the lane and continued fluently to win going away at the end with Drosslemeyer soundly defeated.
This bodes well for Shack.
What ya all think

[Robert Fischer]

Shack has proved to be tenacious and hopefully will save enough on or near the lead and cross the wire first.Do not see any serious challengers on the front end but stranger things can happen ie,Stay Thirsty or MMM may try to mix it up with Shack. Do not expect fast early fractions, but do expect the Shack to take the lead or sit very close. If the distance proves too much for the Shack then AK,MOH Nehro,Santiva figure for the win.I like Shack to win.

Yea... Pletcher is very predictable in that when he doesn't have strong form for a horse he tries to send them up to the pace by default. Stay Thirsty is not a great horse out of the blocks, but he did break his maiden wire-to-wire @6f, and then lead most of the way in the 7f g1 hopeful at saratoga.
He also breaks from the rail post.
Expect them to at least mildly urge Stay Thirsty up the rail, with Shackleford on the lead setting the pace.

[thespaah]

I'm on Shacklelford.
First, he is the only real speed in the field. Second, he does not need to be on the lead to win. He can stalk.
The best horses in this Belmont Stakes are closers.
The Belmont Stakes has never been kind to closers. Too often a horse left on the lead for 6 furlongs has been the winner.
The forecast is for a 60% chance of thundershowers with temps in the low 70's.
A wet sealed surface tends to carry speed a bit better.
I will be calling my bets up to NY.....It's the 12 W-P-S.....

[Producer]

Rack I like PRIME CUT - partially because I think his last race was better than the books say. I will make a bet with you that he finishes more impressively than you think.


What was good at all about his last race? I have heard a few people on hear say that Prime Cuts last race was better than it looked. How? They were crawling home in the Peter Pan and he made up no ground late.

[calltopost]

What was good at all about his last race? I have heard a few people on hear say that Prime Cuts last race was better than it looked. How? They were crawling home in the Peter Pan and he made up no ground late.
I think I am the only one saying it. Check and see if it was me in a different thread. :)

I think that Ramon and ALTERNATION were not going to lose that race to anyone at Belmont - although ADIOS CHARLIE took his best shot after proving better than ASTROLOGY in the Jerome (G2). It was a photo finish but I don't care - that race was for second before the gate opened.

Watch the ride that Prado gives PRIME CUT. He had every opportunity to move too early, but instead stayed patient while other horses made bids. When Prado opened up in the stretch, PRIME CUT's charge was still stronger than most - it was another three lengths back to the rest of them. But the deep sand at Belmont left him fatigued by the finish.

So you aren't wrong - look at the books and you will be underwhelmed. People think there are distance concerns and we'd all rather see ALTERNATION come out of the Peter Pan. But we know this:

- Prado is not going to get greedy no matter what the connections say.
- PRIME CUT is ready for the sand after the Peter Pan and some good workouts at Belmont.

Also - who else is on him? Bettors like Brilliant Speed and Santiva better. So PRIME CUT will get a piece of my Superfecta and maybe a WPS bet.

Plus look how handsome he is: :)

http://www.brisnet.com/pictures/primecut6-9hr.jpg