Newbie Handicapper with a online poker background. Lot of questions

[thew92]

Hello Everyone I am new to Horseracing handicapping and need to know where to start. Forgive me if I am asking some dumb question.

I was a online poker player and if you haven’t heard the US DoJ shut down the major sites. So now I am going to try to get into Horseracing handicapping. There are a few comparisons I am going to try and make with this.

1. Bankroll management: I was a limit hold’em player and there you should aways have at least 350 Big Bet for the limits you play as to withstand the swings in the game. Is there a rule of thumb about how much you should bet on a race as far as your Bank-Roll goes?

2. Rake/Takeout: What is the avg. takeout pure race? Or where do I go to see how much is taken out?

3. Rakeback/Rebate: In poker some sites gave you rack back if you knew where to get it and other had a VIP system that was equal to rake back. Do any of the American ran sites offer any kind of rebate system or a VIP equivalent? (I am not interested in betting in offshore sites after what has happen to the online poker industry.)

4. Coaching Sites – In poker there are coaching sites out there that teach you how to play poker and so on. Like Card Runners and Deuces Cracked. They also had one on one coaching available. Is there anything similar in the horseracing world?

5. Software – In poker I had PT3 and HEM to work with I see all kind of software avilible for horseracing and some of them seem a little pricey to me.

6. Books – What books would you recommend reading for a beginner?

7. Sucker Bets – Any time there is gambling a casino will offer beginners sucker bet are there any in horseracing that you would recommend I stay away from?

8. When betting on horses I see about 20 tracks running races every day what track are the most popular and have the best horse and simulcast? I really like the way Churchill Downs does their simulcast.

9. Who are all the American ran online sites out there and should I open an account with all of them just to chase the sign-up bonus?

[benzer]

I don't want to burst any bubbles but that is going to be a big transition from poker to horse racing.

Start reading the many posts on this site on handicapping a horse race.

Ask questions when needed and someone will probably try to help you. Great people here, just don't try to trick, or abuse their generosity in any way.

[thew92]

I don't want to burst any bubbles but that is going to be a big transition from poker to horse racing.



I have no doubt that this will be hard transition. I found that in poker it took hard work to become a winning player. I expect there will be a lot of work to do to become a winning handicapper. I just need a place to start.

[dav4463]

Go to a track and watch live racing and fall in love with the sport. Note the conditions of each race and watch it knowing what level of horse you are watching and knowing what purse they are trying to win. Learn what the trainers and owners are trying to do.

Smell the horse poop! Have fun first; then learn how to bet.

[benzer]

This is the best place to start. If you want more something more specific let me know. Don't lose your skills in the poker arena the current bull**** might get reversed.

[benzer]

Smell the horse poop! Have fun first; then learn how to bet.
This is a must do. :)

[thew92]

Go to a track and watch live racing and fall in love with the sport. Note the conditions of each race and watch it knowing what level of horse you are watching and knowing what purse they are trying to win. Learn what the trainers and owners are trying to do.

Smell the horse poop! Have fun first; then learn how to bet.

I have been to lone star park a few time and loved it. But sometimes its hard for me to get out there.

Also David are you a Mean Green fan just noticed your location I went to school there from 1998-2001.

[HoofedInTheChest]

Ive only been at this for a year or so but i can help you out, i'm sure the veteran players on here will be happy to chime in as well.

1 - I would practice at first, there is a learning curve you must go through before you get the feel for it. You will burn through money if you go at it uneducated. If you do make some bets i would start with $2 bets. You have to learn how to handicap as well as learn how to bet, they are two different animals.
2 - http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/hanatrackratingsbytrackname2010.html
3 - You can get rebates but you have to be betting large amounts, others on here can explain further.
4 - You found it right here.
5 - There is expensive software and inexpensive software, as well there is free software that members of this board have created, read through the threads you will figure it out pretty quick.
6 - Handicapping 101 by Brad Free
Beyer on Speed by Andrew Beyer
Picking Winners by Andrew Beyer
There are a ton of others to pick from, look online for the books, you wont find them in book stores.
7 - There all sucker bets......... just kidding.
8 - It's a thing you have to feel out, try different tracks and see what you like, some tracks i can't make money at, and some i can.
9 - I'm Canadian so i can't help you with that.

[benzer]

Ive only been at this for a year or so but i can help you out, i'm sure the veteran players on here will be happy to chime in as well.

1 - I would practice at first, there is a learning curve you must go through before you get the feel for it. You will burn through money if you go at it uneducated. If you do make some bets i would start with $2 bets. You have to learn how to handicap as well as learn how to bet, they are two different animals.
2 - http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/hanatrackratingsbytrackname2010.html
3 - You can get rebates but you have to be betting large amounts, others on here can explain further.
4 - You found it right here.
5 - There is expensive software and inexpensive software, as well there is free software that members of this board have created, read through the threads you will figure it out pretty quick.
6 - Handicapping 101 by Brad Free
Beyer on Speed by Andrew Beyer
Picking Winners by Andrew Beyer
There are a ton of others to pick from, look online for the books, you wont find them in book stores.
7 - There all sucker bets......... just kidding.
8 - It's a thing you have to feel out, try different tracks and see what you like, some tracks i can't make money at, and some i can.
9 - I'm Canadian so i can't help you with that.
Good Tips. I've not seen you post in a while. Good to see you are OK

[thew92]

Ive only been at this for a year or so but i can help you out, i'm sure the veteran players on here will be happy to chime in as well.

1 - I would practice at first, there is a learning curve you must go through before you get the feel for it. You will burn through money if you go at it uneducated. If you do make some bets i would start with $2 bets. You have to learn how to handicap as well as learn how to bet, they are two different animals.
2 - http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/hanatrackratingsbytrackname2010.html
3 - You can get rebates but you have to be betting large amounts, others on here can explain further.
4 - You found it right here.
5 - There is expensive software and inexpensive software, as well there is free software that members of this board have created, read through the threads you will figure it out pretty quick.
6 - Handicapping 101 by Brad Free
Beyer on Speed by Andrew Beyer
Picking Winners by Andrew Beyer
There are a ton of others to pick from, look online for the books, you wont find them in book stores.
7 - There all sucker bets......... just kidding.
8 - It's a thing you have to feel out, try different tracks and see what you like, some tracks i can't make money at, and some i can.
9 - I'm Canadian so i can't help you with that.

Yes great post thanks
1. I have just been bet the $2 tickets but I mostly have been picking a horse or 2 and betting WPS which turns into a $6 or $12 ticket.
2. If I am reading this correctly seems like the tracks are taking out 16%-20%. This seems like a large "rake" to overcome.
5. I have been using the Neurax because its free and has a low cost for the data input.
6. I will start with Handicapping 101 Since the 101 class is the one I need now thanks.
8. I guess there is probally a thread out there called "what tracks do you like to bet"? Anyone have a link to anything like this?
9. I wish I was Canadian now then I could still be playing poker :confused:.

[lansdale]

Hello Everyone I am new to Horseracing handicapping and need to know where to start. Forgive me if I am asking some dumb question.

I was a online poker player and if you haven’t heard the US DoJ shut down the major sites. So now I am going to try to get into Horseracing handicapping. There are a few comparisons I am going to try and make with this.

1. Bankroll management: I was a limit hold’em player and there you should aways have at least 350 Big Bet for the limits you play as to withstand the swings in the game. Is there a rule of thumb about how much you should bet on a race as far as your Bank-Roll goes?

2. Rake/Takeout: What is the avg. takeout pure race? Or where do I go to see how much is taken out?

3. Rakeback/Rebate: In poker some sites gave you rack back if you knew where to get it and other had a VIP system that was equal to rake back. Do any of the American ran sites offer any kind of rebate system or a VIP equivalent? (I am not interested in betting in offshore sites after what has happen to the online poker industry.)

4. Coaching Sites – In poker there are coaching sites out there that teach you how to play poker and so on. Like Card Runners and Deuces Cracked. They also had one on one coaching available. Is there anything similar in the horseracing world?

5. Software – In poker I had PT3 and HEM to work with I see all kind of software avilible for horseracing and some of them seem a little pricey to me.

6. Books – What books would you recommend reading for a beginner?

7. Sucker Bets – Any time there is gambling a casino will offer beginners sucker bet are there any in horseracing that you would recommend I stay away from?

8. When betting on horses I see about 20 tracks running races every day what track are the most popular and have the best horse and simulcast? I really like the way Churchill Downs does their simulcast.

9. Who are all the American ran online sites out there and should I open an account with all of them just to chase the sign-up bonus?

Hi thew,

This may seem like a discouraging subject line, but to put things in a nutshell, it's much more difficult to make money playing the horses than playing poker. To put it another way, there are many, many more people making good money from poker (maybe you are/were one of them) than from handicapping. The primary reason from this is the difference between parimutuel pools, in which you are always playing against a racing public which is, as a group, a tough competitor, and a sizable percentage of poker games (more B&M than online) in which you can find yourself playing against some truly incompetent (or drunk) opponents.

I know many people now in the same boat as yourself, after the recent bust (maybe also some on this site), and most of them are turning to B&M games to fill the poker void. Obviously, you're much more limited as to choice of games, but if you were good enough to make money in the tougher environment online, you should do well in higher limit B&M games.

If you're intent on getting into horseracing, this is the best site on the internet on the subject, with a number of sharp players, among them some pros, and they can give you advice on software. But I would conjecture that there are fewer than 300 people in the U.S. making more than 10k annually playing the horses. If any pro players think I'm being too negative, I hope they'll provide some feedback.

Cheers,

lansdale

[thew92]

Hi thew,

This may seem like a discouraging subject line, but to put things in a nutshell, it's much more difficult to make money playing the horses than playing poker. To put it another way, there are many, many more people making good money from poker (maybe you are/were one of them) than from handicapping. The primary reason from this is the difference between parimutuel pools, in which you are always playing against a racing public which is, as a group, a tough competitor, and a sizable percentage of poker games (more B&M than online) in which you can find yourself playing against some truly incompetent (or drunk) opponents.

I know many people now in the same boat as yourself, after the recent bust (maybe also some on this site), and most of them are turning to B&M games to fill the poker void. Obviously, you're much more limited as to choice of games, but if you were good enough to make money in the tougher environment online, you should do well in higher limit B&M games.

If you're intent on getting into horseracing, this is the best site on the internet on the subject, with a number of sharp players, among them some pros, and they can give you advice on software. But I would conjecture that there are fewer than 300 people in the U.S. making more than 10k annually playing the horses. If any pro players think I'm being too negative, I hope they'll provide some feedback.

Cheers,

lansdale

The problem is that I live in Texas and the closest legal place to play is a 3+ hour drive for me. There are a few underground games around but I really don't fell safe playing in them. I have no expectation of making a lot of money at horse racing but mainly to fill the void of my online poker which I but a lot of time into. And in the past few weeks of betting the ponies I have had a lot of fun at it. I would just like to get better at it. maybe for the short time this might mean just losing less and one day maybe breaking even then to accually learning how to place +EV bets. The most discouraging thing I have seen so far is the 18% take out.

But yes you are correct the live B&M games are softer than the online games. And one of the thing I did online was "Bumhunting" which worked well.

[thaskalos]

Hello Everyone I am new to Horseracing handicapping and need to know where to start. Forgive me if I am asking some dumb question.

I was a online poker player and if you haven’t heard the US DoJ shut down the major sites. So now I am going to try to get into Horseracing handicapping. There are a few comparisons I am going to try and make with this.

1. Bankroll management: I was a limit hold’em player and there you should aways have at least 350 Big Bet for the limits you play as to withstand the swings in the game. Is there a rule of thumb about how much you should bet on a race as far as your Bank-Roll goes?

2. Rake/Takeout: What is the avg. takeout pure race? Or where do I go to see how much is taken out?

3. Rakeback/Rebate: In poker some sites gave you rack back if you knew where to get it and other had a VIP system that was equal to rake back. Do any of the American ran sites offer any kind of rebate system or a VIP equivalent? (I am not interested in betting in offshore sites after what has happen to the online poker industry.)

4. Coaching Sites – In poker there are coaching sites out there that teach you how to play poker and so on. Like Card Runners and Deuces Cracked. They also had one on one coaching available. Is there anything similar in the horseracing world?

5. Software – In poker I had PT3 and HEM to work with I see all kind of software avilible for horseracing and some of them seem a little pricey to me.

6. Books – What books would you recommend reading for a beginner?

7. Sucker Bets – Any time there is gambling a casino will offer beginners sucker bet are there any in horseracing that you would recommend I stay away from?

8. When betting on horses I see about 20 tracks running races every day what track are the most popular and have the best horse and simulcast? I really like the way Churchill Downs does their simulcast.

9. Who are all the American ran online sites out there and should I open an account with all of them just to chase the sign-up bonus?
Starting off as a winning online poker player is a BIG plus, IMO. Successful poker players share certain traits which will prove invaluable to you on your road to success in this game. Patience...and the ability to maintain your composure during the "bad streaks", are of vital importance in poker...and this applies to horse racing as well.

1.) Bankroll management: Yes, there are bankroll guidelines in this game as well...but they depend on your style of play...and - since you are a beginner - they don't apply to you. Start off your journey by making the smallest bets possible...because you are guaranteed to make a TON of mistakes during your learning process.

NO bankroll is big enough if you are a losing player!

2.) Rake/takeout: Go to the HANA website (information is found on this site)...where you will find the takeouts for every bet, in every track in North America.

3.) Rakebake/rebates: Yes...there are rebates in this game too, and this information can also be found on this site. Just use the SEARCH option and type in "rebates". Don't let your urge for high rebates tempt you into a start of big bets right off the bat. That's a recipe for disaster.

4.) Coaching sites: Regrettably, there is no such thing as an online training site for the beginning horseplayer yet...

Dave Schwartz offers tons of good stuff on his website...and most of them are easily understandable by novice players. You are encouraged to take a look...

5.) Software: Yes...there are software out there, but you should create a foundation built on the fundamentals before looking into that area of the game.

6.) Books: I have suggested books to beginning players before...and this is my opinion as it stands right now:

RECREATIONAL HANDICAPPING - by James Quinn. This is the best book of its kind out there.

FIGURE HANDICAPPING - James Quinn. Accurate speed figure are everywhere. This book shows how to apply them...

James Quinn's books are a little "drier" that those by Andy Beyer...but they are very informative.

7.) Sucker bets: Regrettably, this game is too complex...and I don't think I should give you a list of what I consider to be "sucker bets" in this game. If I do...someone is likely to jump in and say that the very bets I consider sucker bets are the ones he/she has been making successfully for years. :)

Just remember that sticking with "favorites", and betting every race race are NOT the way to go in this game.

Just like poker...this game is about DISCIPLINE and VALUE.

8.) Best tracks: The tracks change depending on the time of year. Right now, the best tracks are Belmont and Churchill Downs.

I suggest that you stay with the New York, Kentucky, and Florida circuits at this stage of your development as a player.

9.) Online betting sites: Twinspires and TVG are the biggest...but you will discover more of them when you do the search on "rebates" that I suggested before.

And NO...you should NOT start chasing the sign-up bonuses or the rebates right from the start. Your primary focus should be on learning the fundamentals of the game...and your bets - AND YOUR ONLINE DEPOSITS - should be small.

Otherwise...your tuition will cost you plenty. And that's no lie...

I would like to finish by telling you that this site right here is the meeting place for some of the best and brightest players out there...and they will all go out of their way to help you in any way they can...if you will just ask.

I wish you much success in this game...just don't be in a hurry. There is alot to learn...

[lansdale]

Hello Everyone I am new to Horseracing handicapping and need to know where to start. Forgive me if I am asking some dumb question.

I was a online poker player and if you haven’t heard the US DoJ shut down the major sites. So now I am going to try to get into Horseracing handicapping. There are a few comparisons I am going to try and make with this.

1. Bankroll management: I was a limit hold’em player and there you should aways have at least 350 Big Bet for the limits you play as to withstand the swings in the game. Is there a rule of thumb about how much you should bet on a race as far as your Bank-Roll goes?

2. Rake/Takeout: What is the avg. takeout pure race? Or where do I go to see how much is taken out?

3. Rakeback/Rebate: In poker some sites gave you rack back if you knew where to get it and other had a VIP system that was equal to rake back. Do any of the American ran sites offer any kind of rebate system or a VIP equivalent? (I am not interested in betting in offshore sites after what has happen to the online poker industry.)

4. Coaching Sites – In poker there are coaching sites out there that teach you how to play poker and so on. Like Card Runners and Deuces Cracked. They also had one on one coaching available. Is there anything similar in the horseracing world?

5. Software – In poker I had PT3 and HEM to work with I see all kind of software avilible for horseracing and some of them seem a little pricey to me.

6. Books – What books would you recommend reading for a beginner?

7. Sucker Bets – Any time there is gambling a casino will offer beginners sucker bet are there any in horseracing that you would recommend I stay away from?

8. When betting on horses I see about 20 tracks running races every day what track are the most popular and have the best horse and simulcast? I really like the way Churchill Downs does their simulcast.

9. Who are all the American ran online sites out there and should I open an account with all of them just to chase the sign-up bonus?

Hi thew,

This may seem like a discouraging subject line, but to put things in a nutshell, it's much more difficult to make money playing the horses than playing poker. To put it another way, there are many, many more people making good money from poker (maybe you are/were one of them) than from handicapping. The primary reason from this is the difference between parimutuel pools, in which you are always playing against a racing public which is, as a group, a tough competitor, and a sizable percentage of poker games (more B&M than online) in which you can find yourself playing against some truly incompetent (or drunk) opponents.

I know many people now in the same boat as yourself, after the recent bust (maybe also some on this site), and most of them are turning to B&M games to fill the poker void. Obviously, you're much more limited as to choice of games, but if you were good enough to make money in the tougher environment online, you should do well in higher limit B&M games.

If you're intent on getting into horseracing, this is the best site on the internet on the subject, with a number of sharp players, among them some pros, and they can give you advice on software. But I would conjecture that there are fewer than 300 people in the U.S. making more than 10k annually playing the horses. If any pro players think I'm being too negative, I hope they'll provide some feedback.

Cheers,

lansdale

[thaskalos]

Hi thew,

This may seem like a discouraging subject line, but to put things in a nutshell, it's much more difficult to make money playing the horses than playing poker. To put it another way, there are many, many more people making good money from poker (maybe you are/were one of them) than from handicapping. The primary reason from this is the difference between parimutuel pools, in which you are always playing against a racing public which is, as a group, a tough competitor, and a sizable percentage of poker games (more B&M than online) in which you can find yourself playing against some truly incompetent (or drunk) opponents.

I know many people now in the same boat as yourself, after the recent bust (maybe also some on this site), and most of them are turning to B&M games to fill the poker void. Obviously, you're much more limited as to choice of games, but if you were good enough to make money in the tougher environment online, you should do well in higher limit B&M games.

If you're intent on getting into horseracing, this is the best site on the internet on the subject, with a number of sharp players, among them some pros, and they can give you advice on software. But I would conjecture that there are fewer than 300 people in the U.S. making more than 10k annually playing the horses. If any pro players think I'm being too negative, I hope they'll provide some feedback.

Cheers,

lansdale
I swear I have read this before...:)

[PhantomOnTour]

They are running a lil race tomorrow at Belmont Park called the Poker (really, no bluffin').

[lansdale]

The problem is that I live in Texas and the closest legal place to play is a 3+ hour drive for me. There are a few underground games around but I really don't fell safe playing in them. I have no expectation of making a lot of money at horse racing but mainly to fill the void of my online poker which I but a lot of time into. And in the past few weeks of betting the ponies I have had a lot of fun at it. I would just like to get better at it. maybe for the short time this might mean just losing less and one day maybe breaking even then to accually learning how to place +EV bets. The most discouraging thing I have seen so far is the 18% take out.

But yes you are correct the live B&M games are softer than the online games. And one of the thing I did online was "Bumhunting" which worked well.

thew,

I see better where you're coming from now. I understand that legalized gambling of any kind is much more limited in Texas. Also, from the time I've spent in there, I think you're wise to avoid underground poker. As others have said, the learning curve in horseracing is high, but if you enjoy the game, you should just go for it.

BTW, apologies for my accidental double post.

Cheers,

lansdale

[Some_One]

There is no difference between horse racing and poker in that both games your profit is determined by the skill edge over your opponents. Im sure most know that online games were getting tougher every day and where most people would agree a live 1/2 game was the same skill level as a .1/.2 game online. Yes the rake is high, but it doesn't mean you can't make money, you just have to make sure the skill edge is enough to overcome the rake. I think the good news that if you go to the track, just go to a crowd of people and listen to how they justify their selections, you'll heard some of the craziest, illogical reasons which means generally speaking, the people you are playing against are stupid and dumb and just begging for you to take their money.

As for some of your other questions, I think the sucker bet is the show bet, as due to the rules of how payoffs are rounded down, it increases the takeout, yes the exotics have high takeouts, but I wouldn't go near them in the short run just because they are high variance. I wouldn't go near software either, just because you will get suckered in to thinking a program is a one touch, black box all in one money printing machine. Learn how to read the form and understand the racing. The most popular tracks would start with Nyra, SouthCal (for some unknown reason as their product is awful), Churchill, Woodbine. And finally, I would start out with making bets on paper for a while.

[lansdale]

I swear I have read this before...:)

Hi thaskalos,

Can I use encroaching senility as an excuse? :-)

BTW, liked your post here, and always learn something from your insights into the game. Your debonair imperturbability also much appreciated.

Cheers,

lansdale

[thaskalos]

Hi thaskalos,

Can I use encroaching senility as an excuse? :-)

BTW, liked your post here, and always learn something from your insights into the game. Your debonair imperturbability also much appreciated.

Cheers,

lansdale
I much appreciate the kind words, and would like to add that I too find your posts very informative, and your gambling insight very keen...in a wide variety of games.

If only you could be persuaded to post a little more often...:) :ThmbUp:

[offtrack]

Here's an edge for you: bet the tracks where the vactioners come to play.

Good luck and enjoy.

[davew]

the track take is different in every state

in the 10-18% range for straight pools (WPS)
and 18-28% for exotics (EX, TRI, SU, DD, P6,...)

some pools have carryovers if not hit - but usually vary hard to hit




at each track there are a couple hundred people who basically spend their life there - grooms, trainers, hotwalkers, jockeys, ..... who know some horses very well - some bet, some do not

I would watch pools and lots of races, pick up patterns and money
-follow the money probable pay-offs

after watching many races, you will notice the best horse frequently does not win due to interference, pace, poor jockey decision on route,...


there are many races on the internet, but activity is nothing like Full Tilt or PokerStars was



books- I would recommend one by Cramer - The odds on your side ( or something similar) - it talks about probablities and placing positive expectation bets rather than trying to pick 'winners'

2 horses to show is usually a bad bet as the favorite or second favorite hit the board over 60% of the time and suck a lot of money is sucked away with track take and breakage - exception is if a bridgejumper bets on a vulnerable favorite who may miss the board - I have seen show pay-offs over $50 for 2nd or 3rd favorite runners

[thew92]

They are running a lil race tomorrow at Belmont Park called the Poker (really, no bluffin').

I think this race will be a must bet for me. Seems like they might be running another well know race their tomorrow as well. BTW when you replied it was after mid-night is the "poker" race Friday or Saturday?

[egreen]

I have accounts with all of the US-based companies. Here are a few thoughts:

Xpressbet - nice and easy-to-use interface, no fees, free streaming, terrific customer service.

TwinSpires - best video options. Minimum wagering requirements for video.

TVG - pass - per wager fees and no refunds on cancelled bets.

Racing2Day - have used bait and switch tactics on promotions and bad interface - pass.

BetAmerica - pass - horrible customer service, poor interface, no NY racing offered.

RaceUWin - limted options and poorly set up - not worth your time.

There's no harm in signing up to get the bonuses because you can play small amounts and use those to learn. Good luck.

[thew92]

There is no difference between horse racing and poker in that both games your profit is determined by the skill edge over your opponents. Im sure most know that online games were getting tougher every day and where most people would agree a live 1/2 game was the same skill level as a .1/.2 game online. Yes the rake is high, but it doesn't mean you can't make money, you just have to make sure the skill edge is enough to overcome the rake. I think the good news that if you go to the track, just go to a crowd of people and listen to how they justify their selections, you'll heard some of the craziest, illogical reasons which means generally speaking, the people you are playing against are stupid and dumb and just begging for you to take their money.

As for some of your other questions, I think the sucker bet is the show bet, as due to the rules of how payoffs are rounded down, it increases the takeout, yes the exotics have high takeouts, but I wouldn't go near them in the short run just because they are high variance. I wouldn't go near software either, just because you will get suckered in to thinking a program is a one touch, black box all in one money printing machine. Learn how to read the form and understand the racing. The most popular tracks would start with Nyra, SouthCal (for some unknown reason as their product is awful), Churchill, Woodbine. And finally, I would start out with making bets on paper for a while.

This sounds encouraging. I sure I would hear all kinds of stuff of why someone bet a horse but of course as a newbie myself I wouldn't catch on if they where wrong or right for their reasoning. I have heard it at a live poker game before and there I know I have heard a lot of bad logic about how they play poker and its hard for me just to keep my mouth shut. As when I was playing poker I was part of an study group with a lot of good players.
I like the ideal of the paper betting but I know myself to well I don't think I can do it.

[thew92]

Starting off as a winning online poker player is a BIG plus, IMO. Successful poker players share certain traits which will prove invaluable to you on your road to success in this game. Patience...and the ability to maintain your composure during the "bad streaks", are of vital importance in poker...and this applies to horse racing as well.

1.) Bankroll management: Yes, there are bankroll guidelines in this game as well...but they depend on your style of play...and - since you are a beginner - they don't apply to you. Start off your journey by making the smallest bets possible...because you are guaranteed to make a TON of mistakes during your learning process.

NO bankroll is big enough if you are a losing player!

2.) Rake/takeout: Go to the HANA website (information is found on this site)...where you will find the takeouts for every bet, in every track in North America.

3.) Rakebake/rebates: Yes...there are rebates in this game too, and this information can also be found on this site. Just use the SEARCH option and type in "rebates". Don't let your urge for high rebates tempt you into a start of big bets right off the bat. That's a recipe for disaster.

4.) Coaching sites: Regrettably, there is no such thing as an online training site for the beginning horseplayer yet...

Dave Schwartz offers tons of good stuff on his website...and most of them are easily understandable by novice players. You are encouraged to take a look...

5.) Software: Yes...there are software out there, but you should create a foundation built on the fundamentals before looking into that area of the game.

6.) Books: I have suggested books to beginning players before...and this is my opinion as it stands right now:

RECREATIONAL HANDICAPPING - by James Quinn. This is the best book of its kind out there.

FIGURE HANDICAPPING - James Quinn. Accurate speed figure are everywhere. This book shows how to apply them...

James Quinn's books are a little "drier" that those by Andy Beyer...but they are very informative.

7.) Sucker bets: Regrettably, this game is too complex...and I don't think I should give you a list of what I consider to be "sucker bets" in this game. If I do...someone is likely to jump in and say that the very bets I consider sucker bets are the ones he/she has been making successfully for years. :)

Just remember that sticking with "favorites", and betting every race race are NOT the way to go in this game.

Just like poker...this game is about DISCIPLINE and VALUE.

8.) Best tracks: The tracks change depending on the time of year. Right now, the best tracks are Belmont and Churchill Downs.

I suggest that you stay with the New York, Kentucky, and Florida circuits at this stage of your development as a player.

9.) Online betting sites: Twinspires and TVG are the biggest...but you will discover more of them when you do the search on "rebates" that I suggested before.

And NO...you should NOT start chasing the sign-up bonuses or the rebates right from the start. Your primary focus should be on learning the fundamentals of the game...and your bets - AND YOUR ONLINE DEPOSITS - should be small.

Otherwise...your tuition will cost you plenty. And that's no lie...

I would like to finish by telling you that this site right here is the meeting place for some of the best and brightest players out there...and they will all go out of their way to help you in any way they can...if you will just ask.

I wish you much success in this game...just don't be in a hurry. There is alot to learn...

1. I guess I need to stick to the min bet for know. As I am a losing horse player for now.

3. I have done that search before and it always takes me to the off-shore sites which after what happened in the poker world I am not willing to go there. But I do agree one thing I have learned in poker is that never bet more than you can afford to lose by chasing promotions.

5. Will do looks like great advise.

8. I think tomorrow I am going to stick to Churchill, Belmont and Woodbine.

9. Right now I am using twinspears and love their interface so I guess I will stay there for a while.

[thew92]

Also I have notice a few of y'all calling the Show bet a sucker be would it be wise to change my standard bet to a WP ticket?

[PhantomOnTour]

The Poker is today, Friday.
Not a good betting race; very small field, just thought you'd find that funny.

[rufus999]

If you are truly serious about learning.

Ainslie's Guide to Thoroughbred Racing. Tom Ainslie
Betting Thoroughbreds. Steven Davidowitz
Picking Winners. Andrew Beyer
Beyer on Speed. Andrew Beyer

Now all you have to do is spend 20 years watching 50,000 races and you're all set. Easy, right?

rufus:9::9::9:

[Some_One]

betting to place on horses <4-1 I would also think of tossing, a 2-1 will pay around 3.00 to place as example. Keep it simple, bet to win, then go from there.

[duncan04]

1. I guess I need to stick to the min bet for know. As I am a losing horse player for now.

3. I have done that search before and it always takes me to the off-shore sites which after what happened in the poker world I am not willing to go there. But I do agree one thing I have learned in poker is that never bet more than you can afford to lose by chasing promotions.

5. Will do looks like great advise.

8. I think tomorrow I am going to stick to Churchill, Belmont and Woodbine.

9. Right now I am using twinspears and love their interface so I guess I will stay there for a while.

And with twinspires you get free pp for the track you make a wager on. Saves spending additional money for the pp's

[Learned Hand35]

Hello Everyone I am new to Horseracing handicapping and need to know where to start. Forgive me if I am asking some dumb question.

I was a online poker player and if you haven’t heard the US DoJ shut down the major sites. So now I am going to try to get into Horseracing handicapping. There are a few comparisons I am going to try and make with this.

1. Bankroll management: I was a limit hold’em player and there you should aways have at least 350 Big Bet for the limits you play as to withstand the swings in the game. Is there a rule of thumb about how much you should bet on a race as far as your Bank-Roll goes?

2. Rake/Takeout: What is the avg. takeout pure race? Or where do I go to see how much is taken out?

3. Rakeback/Rebate: In poker some sites gave you rack back if you knew where to get it and other had a VIP system that was equal to rake back. Do any of the American ran sites offer any kind of rebate system or a VIP equivalent? (I am not interested in betting in offshore sites after what has happen to the online poker industry.)

4. Coaching Sites – In poker there are coaching sites out there that teach you how to play poker and so on. Like Card Runners and Deuces Cracked. They also had one on one coaching available. Is there anything similar in the horseracing world?

5. Software – In poker I had PT3 and HEM to work with I see all kind of software avilible for horseracing and some of them seem a little pricey to me.

6. Books – What books would you recommend reading for a beginner?

7. Sucker Bets – Any time there is gambling a casino will offer beginners sucker bet are there any in horseracing that you would recommend I stay away from?

8. When betting on horses I see about 20 tracks running races every day what track are the most popular and have the best horse and simulcast? I really like the way Churchill Downs does their simulcast.

9. Who are all the American ran online sites out there and should I open an account with all of them just to chase the sign-up bonus?

I have played some poker over the years. I enjoy it, but it is nothing like my love of (or addiction to ?) the game. Beware. If the game truly grabs you, you may never get rid of it. I know I can't.

I am a newbie (3 years in the game) compared to most on this site. As others have said, this is the best site about the game on the web. I continue to learn things that hone my skill. My opinions as someone who was where you are a few short years ago:

1. Bankroll management: In my opinion the most important aspect. I have success with certain plays. However, I make too many action bets and though unit wise my action bets are small they add up quickly. Unlike poker where you can fold and another hand is coming in just a few minutes, if you sit on your hands you are waiting for at least another 20 minutes before your next opportunity for action occurs unless you are playing multiple tracks. Even then, you can only properly handicap and play so many tracks at a time. (Some of the advanced handicapping software that some use will really cut down on handicapping time, but there still is only so many hours in the day.) To stop making a short story long: Discipline. Discipline. Discipline.

2. Takeout: As others have said, depends on the track and type of bet. As stated elsewhere the HANA site is the place to go.

3. Rebates: A must. Look around PA. There are authorized ADW (U.S. licensed) advertisers that will get you a much better rate. The difference between the rate I get with my favorite smaller ADW and a large corporate one (that shall not be named), really shocked me at first. Guess who gets the vast majority of my action?

4. Coaching sites: I consider PA my coaching site. Some threads can get heated, but I have never seen anyone trying to learn not receive good advice or denigrated for asking a "newbie" question. Plus not all advice happens on the Board. I have had skilled posters be quite helpful and kind via pm exchanges.

5. Software: The portion of PA on software is very informative. I have yet to make a foray into software, though it is next on my list. Some of the software does seem a bit pricey, hence why I am still just dipping my toes in. Some posters swear by certain software. (Check out the contest sections.) Also, some posters have created their own software apps and posted them for free.

6. Books: Pretty well covered by others. Personally, I think I got the most from Davidowitz's Betting T'Breds. To this day, if I am leaving the house and need pleasure reading material, I will often take it with me. I don't know how many times I have read it, but it often jogs my thoughts with new ideas.

7. Sucker bets: In my opinion, I think one person's suckerbet is another's bread and butter if they find something that gives them an edge.

a. For someone new, I would agree that show betting would be a sucker bet unless it is a bridgejumping situation where you perceive the favorite to be false. Someone new should not be betting large units at first anyway, and the difference in ROI between Win (or even Place) and Show is significant.

b. More complicated exotics Pick 6, Pick 5, higher minimum Pick 4, Supers, etc.). Some say exotics are sucker bets even for the advanced and properly bankrolled player due to the high takeout. Either way, a newbie should not be betting the amount need to properly play exotics. Jumping into the exotics with its longer losing droughts are a quick way to the poor house.

Personally, if you want to play exotics from the get go, I would look to those tracks with .50 tris and Pick 3's. The payouts can be severely depressed depending on the pool and take, but they can be a lot of fun on the cheap and can help you learn to construct your vertical tickets properly.

8. Tracks: Obviously, the "classier" or larger tracks are going to be more popular. No doubt those track's pools are larger giving you the chance at higher payouts. However, it depends on where you find your edge. The great thing about the game is that with all the different tracks, race conditions, types of bets, there are so many more angles or potential for an edge. (Much more opportunity for an as of yet undiscovered edge than poker, in my opinion.) Personally my better triumphs have come at tracks that are considered "bush league."

9. Signing up to collect the bonus: Depends on your personality. Is that extra $50 or $100 worth it to you? I have never opened an account simply for a sign-up bonus. Though I have never had a problem with the three US based/licensed ADWs I have or have had an account with, giving out my SSN number to a third party for what amounts to peanuts is not my style.

My best advice:

Use PA as your bible (or other applicable holy book) for the game. Check the site every day. Search the threads. (Even ten year old threads contain wisdom and insight.) Ask questions.

Welcome to the game!

[superfecta]

First,learn how to read the racing form.
Second,learn how to disect the info from each running line.
Be able to reconstruct races from those lines.
Learn how to read charts of races.

Dont fall in love with Beyer figs,realize they try to summarize a race with one number,its ridiculous.

Dont worry about takeout,worry about the odds.of the horses you choose.

Walk before you fly,pick a method of choosing winners,see if you make money.

You should start seeing how races set up and how the winners style of running can vary.

Dont try to use things such as breeding,trainer intent or anything subjective as a main reason to bet a horse.It can be used to buttress your opinion, but not the reason to pick a horse.

Read everything about racing,but realize handicapping each race is its own event,just like poker doing the same thing doesnt always make the money.

[thew92]

First,learn how to read the racing form.


Yeah I am still a little confused with the PPs. Anyone have a good resource for reading these for begginers.
I am using the Ultimate PPs with Comments from Bris.

[Some_One]

Try this, its the DRF, but the layout and style is mostly the same.

http://www1.drf.com/flash/drf_pp_tutorial.html

[jsk42069]

Those are a lot of questions and that is what to do.. keep asking questions of people who know the game. There are some great insight and knowledge in this forum like they said read the post and take alot of notes. Sucker bets I feel are people who get caught up in trying to hit a big ticket and do no research just betting on the big odds. They do that at a local track I go to and bet down horses that have a hard time finishing the race..lol
Good luck!

[Scottishracefan]

Im in the UK and i find the Beyer figs very very helpful,others will differ in there opinions and thats what makes this game so interesting.

I also believe USA racing is straighter than the muck we have in the Uk,although i would say the hurdle and steeplechase racing is fairly straight.

Some of our flat racing has prize money of less than £2,000!!!!

Sorry going off subject,some fantastic posts here and advice,most of all enjoy it as a hobby and the wins you might be lucky enough to get.

[Some_One]

Anyone who bashes speed figures just simply don't understand them, go to the thread about the Belmont Beyer where both Valuist and myself agreed that the figure is useless for the future.

[thaskalos]

Anyone who bashes speed figures just simply don't understand them, go to the thread about the Belmont Beyer where both Valuist and myself agreed that the figure is useless for the future.
I don't understand the point you are trying to make.

Who are those people who are bashing the speed figures?

I, myself, have been critical of speed figures in the past...but only because they cannot be relied upon - on their own - to give us an accurate estimate of the quality of a horse's performance in a race.

Is this "bashing" them?

Even Andy Beyer himself has been vocal in pointing out the limitations of the speed figures in a variety of situations, and he has repeatedly stated that HOW the race was run is easily as important as HOW FAST it was run.

IMO...speed figures cannot be thoroughly understood, unless they are accompanied by accurate PACE figures.

[pondman]

You'll find many different style. I'll give you mine:

1. Money management-- I personally make consistent flat bets on the nose to win. My bets range from $100-$300.

3.Software. This game is different from poker. Poker is structured-- you know the odds of a hand. Horse racing has many unknowns. Therefore, horse racing lends itself to hocus and pocus. You need to study an individual track and take note. Do not generalize. The most important software is for note keeping. I use excell.

4. I need a big enough pool. Therefore, it takes a larger crowd. I play all tracks on the West Coast, and I'm currently playing Delaware Park. I infrequently play Finger Lakes.

5. I'm a resident of California. Xpressbet.com has the license. I get nothing back except reimbursement on Equibase.

My advice: Don't read anything. Go out watch the races for several month. Keep records. And come up with your own methods. Every track has its own idiosyncrasies and exclusive club of owner, trainers, and jockeys. Learn why a horse runs?

[Some_One]

I don't understand the point you are trying to make.

Who are those people who are bashing the speed figures?

I, myself, have been critical of speed figures in the past...but only because they cannot be relied upon - on their own - to give us an accurate estimate of the quality of a horse's performance in a race.

Is this "bashing" them?

Even Andy Beyer himself has been vocal in pointing out the limitations of the speed figures in a variety of situations, and he has repeatedly stated that HOW the race was run is easily as important as HOW FAST it was run.

IMO...speed figures cannot be thoroughly understood, unless they are accompanied by accurate PACE figures.

I think your statement is ok, I don't think I can disagree with anything youve stated. The bashing I'm thinking about is mostly done by the left coast folks whenever one of theirs get a low fig for winning a big race there.

[pondman]

Anyone who bashes speed figures just simply don't understand them, go to the thread about the Belmont Beyer where both Valuist and myself agreed that the figure is useless for the future.

IMO... beyers figures are a low priority for a beginner.

I would rather see a beginner study the conditions of a race, and spend a few months observing drops in class, and what happens when a hot horse jumps in class. Does a horse off a maiden win repeat? All of these things happen at specific conditions. You just need to understand them and bet them. These are thing I would suggest a beginner observe.

[dav4463]

I have been to lone star park a few time and loved it. But sometimes its hard for me to get out there.

Also David are you a Mean Green fan just noticed your location I went to school there from 1998-2001.


I graduated from UNT. I was one of the ones who absolutely did not want that Southlake Carroll high school coach to come here! I think I was right, but they didn't listen to me!

I am a Mean Green fan, but it's been tough lately! Basketball is ok though! I still live in the area.

[Scottishracefan]

Being from Scotland...i dont have a clue about exotic bets and are very limited on uk betting sites ,i tend to bet 2 against the field $25-$50 bets.:8:

[whodoyoulike]

Yeah I am still a little confused with the PPs. Anyone have a good resource for reading these for begginers.
I am using the Ultimate PPs with Comments from Bris.

You may want to review these web links.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=library

http://www.drf.com/

See LEARN and VIDEO (Race of the Day)

http://www.equibase.com/stats/View.cfm?tf=year&tb=horse&y=2010#tab=trainer&page=1

http://www.horse-races.net/library/links-pastperformances.htm#free

Good luck and have fun.

[appistappis]

something that might help.....watch and learn what the trainer is doing rather than the horse, especially at the smaller tracks.

i.e. juan carlos guerrera was winning at a 57% clip first off the claim and other trainers were winning 2% after claiming from him.

[dav4463]

If you want to keep it fairly simple........learn to doodle the races as suggested in Randy Gile's book "Extreme Pace Handicapping". That book has helped me tremendously in getting a pace picture of a race and identifying horses that will be in a position to run their best. Then PM Overlay and see if you can order his book from a while back called "Overlay Handicapping" and use his stuff to narrow down contenders. Borrow and steal from others who have good ideas and you can start to put together your own approach.

I have my own way of looking for longshots which involve throwing out the top 4 last race Beyer horses...(sometimes top 3)...and then when one or two of my longshots also fit the pace picture and rank ok in Overlay's method...I have a good play. I bet to win and place usually at a m/l of 8/1 or higher, sometimes 6/1.

I have hit some huge prices, but sometimes I bet stupid. I am trying to be more disciplined and just stick to my stronger plays. Lately....results have been very good. You just have to accept that on some days, the chalk is going to win...those days suck, but it doesn't take too many big wins to get back ahead of the game!

[Force of One]

Hello Everyone I am new to Horseracing handicapping and need to know where to start. Forgive me if I am asking some dumb question.

I was a online poker player and if you haven’t heard the US DoJ shut down the major sites. So now I am going to try to get into Horseracing handicapping. There are a few comparisons I am going to try and make with this.

1. Bankroll management: I was a limit hold’em player and there you should aways have at least 350 Big Bet for the limits you play as to withstand the swings in the game. Is there a rule of thumb about how much you should bet on a race as far as your Bank-Roll goes?

2. Rake/Takeout: What is the avg. takeout pure race? Or where do I go to see how much is taken out?

3. Rakeback/Rebate: In poker some sites gave you rack back if you knew where to get it and other had a VIP system that was equal to rake back. Do any of the American ran sites offer any kind of rebate system or a VIP equivalent? (I am not interested in betting in offshore sites after what has happen to the online poker industry.)

4. Coaching Sites – In poker there are coaching sites out there that teach you how to play poker and so on. Like Card Runners and Deuces Cracked. They also had one on one coaching available. Is there anything similar in the horseracing world?

5. Software – In poker I had PT3 and HEM to work with I see all kind of software avilible for horseracing and some of them seem a little pricey to me.

6. Books – What books would you recommend reading for a beginner?

7. Sucker Bets – Any time there is gambling a casino will offer beginners sucker bet are there any in horseracing that you would recommend I stay away from?

8. When betting on horses I see about 20 tracks running races every day what track are the most popular and have the best horse and simulcast? I really like the way Churchill Downs does their simulcast.

9. Who are all the American ran online sites out there and should I open an account with all of them just to chase the sign-up bonus?

As someone who has sort of done the opposite (horses to poker), hopefully my persepctive is of some value. There are some difference between the two. Namely, I believe the learning curve to actually be able to make money long term is longer and steeper with horses. Also, in poker, I think there are many more successful players who are only good, but better than their immediate competition, where as in horseracing I think you have to be very good generally speaking to have a chance at success. An example is you could be a great $2-4 limit hold 'em player and do well as long as you avoid the Phil Ivey's of the world an beat up on donkeys. Generally speaking, I think there is less low hanging fruit in horses. Also I believe there is less luck involved in big success compared to poker. Mind you not zero luck, but unlike in a tournament or something where you can run hot with good cards and be dominated and suck out on the river, you are much less likely to catch miracle breaks in consecutive races on a Pick 6 or something like that.

Now to your questions:

1) Just starting out, I would stick with $2 flat win bets, until you can get some records of what types of races (ex. sprints, turf races, claiming, etc) you are best at and can show a profit with. Ultimately, I would look toward some sort of Kelly betting once you have solid records. As for what you need, it depends on the type of bets. Something like win bets, people sometimes use something like 2% of bankroll, so that would be 50 bets, but in something like Pick 4 or Pick 6 betting which have a much bigger payouts/lower hit rate, you would want more. (Think cash game vs. tournaments)

2) this varies track to track and across bets even. The numbers others have given are on point. Also somebody said to focus more on your own results than worrying about that, which I think is good advice for now.

3) I'll admit this is an area where I need to research more so I will defer to the other answers

4) There isn't much in the way of his but by far the closest thing I have found is Horseplayernow.com Night School: http://www.horseplayernow.com/cat/school.htm. Also DRF puts out some instructional videos (Trip Handicapping is one that comes to mind). To my knowledge there is nowhere near this type of resouce in horseracing as there is with poker, but these might be worth a look for you. As others have said, this site is also a great resource, kind of like a 2 + 2 would be. There are some sharp guys on here who I know I have learned from.

5) I've created my own spreadsheets to do this for me, but I would search around - I'm sure there are types of things out there for this. To be honest, I think there is a little less analysis in horses in this regard. Also it will take you a lot longer to get anywhere near the races as you would have hands to analyze.

6) Another big difference is that unlike poker books which have become outdated compared to video sites as the game has evolved greatly in say the last few years, with horses many of the best books you should read are classic that are often more than 10 years old. Since you are just starting out, a few I would recommed are:

Ainsle's Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing by Tom Ainsle (great general intro)
Handicapping 101 by Brad Free (a more modern general intro)
Horse Racing Logic by Glendon Jones (a next step up in the fundementals)
The Best of Thoroughbred Handicapping by James Quinn (great survey/summary of other books to explore)
Six Secrets of Successful Bettors by Scatoni and Fornatale (would be a "meta-value" type book)

There are loads more, but this would be a good start I think

7) To be honest I would stick with ONLY win bets to start if you are serious until you get a grasp of analyzing races and are comfortable in how the other bets work. Some would say attacking exotic bets like Pick 4's and Pick 6's (especially) are sucker bets if you are undercapitalized for them.

8) I think for starting out purposes this is less important and more so is picking one and mastering that track and then it's circuit. (Ex. in SoCal horses/trainers/jockeys are running at Hollywood Park - then they go to Del Mar in the summer. In time they will go to Santa Anita and then repeat the annual cycle. Getting to know a finite group of players and their patterns/tendencies (ex. who are the top jockeys? What trainers do best with what types of horses? etc) will speed your progress. This may not be as intuitive as so I thought I'd mention it.

9) This is less of a concern from a standpoint of say "shopping lines" as one would on betting football as the odds are the same or caliber of player (ex. "there are more fish on Full Tilt vs. PokerStars") as again, it's the same pool. Personally I like twinspires.com but I'm sure there are others. I would just research as some have tools like race replays and such that you can use in your handicapping.

Hopefully this is of some value to you. Feel free to PM me if you have any other questions. Who knows? Maybe you can even help me with my poker game. :) Best of luck to you!

[dansan]

handicapp different than the crowd beyers, pace ,final times just about everyone and their relatives use them , myself I use angles and trip works just fine

[speculus]

Hello Everyone I am new to Horseracing handicapping and need to know where to start. Forgive me if I am asking some dumb question.

I was a online poker player and if you haven’t heard the US DoJ shut down the major sites. So now I am going to try to get into Horseracing handicapping. There are a few comparisons I am going to try and make with this.

1. Bankroll management: I was a limit hold’em player and there you should aways have at least 350 Big Bet for the limits you play as to withstand the swings in the game. Is there a rule of thumb about how much you should bet on a race as far as your Bank-Roll goes?

2. Rake/Takeout: What is the avg. takeout pure race? Or where do I go to see how much is taken out?

3. Rakeback/Rebate: In poker some sites gave you rack back if you knew where to get it and other had a VIP system that was equal to rake back. Do any of the American ran sites offer any kind of rebate system or a VIP equivalent? (I am not interested in betting in offshore sites after what has happen to the online poker industry.)

4. Coaching Sites – In poker there are coaching sites out there that teach you how to play poker and so on. Like Card Runners and Deuces Cracked. They also had one on one coaching available. Is there anything similar in the horseracing world?

5. Software – In poker I had PT3 and HEM to work with I see all kind of software avilible for horseracing and some of them seem a little pricey to me.

6. Books – What books would you recommend reading for a beginner?

7. Sucker Bets – Any time there is gambling a casino will offer beginners sucker bet are there any in horseracing that you would recommend I stay away from?

8. When betting on horses I see about 20 tracks running races every day what track are the most popular and have the best horse and simulcast? I really like the way Churchill Downs does their simulcast.

9. Who are all the American ran online sites out there and should I open an account with all of them just to chase the sign-up bonus?

Here is my honest effort to help you:

1. Bankroll Management: After you are ready with whatever method of handicapping you settle on, make paper bets, keep records. And only when your latest 500 or more bets show a flat bet profit, go for a real bankroll. Let it be your own money free from all claims. Calculate your winning edge for those last 500+ bets with the following formula:

Edge = (Win Strike rate * Avg odds to 1 on winners) - (1 - Win Strike Rate)

And based on this figure you may choose, for your first real action, between 1% to 3% of the bankroll for your first bet. Go buy HMI from Dave Schwartz, and send a scanned copy of the purchase to me in mail (speculus@gmail.com), after which I will send you a FREE copy of my changes to HMI. This should serve you well if you are really a flat-bet winner.

2. Rake/Takeout: You have already got good advice on this one. I will only add that higher the takeout, greater the discretion/patience/discipline the player will need to show in waiting out until his kind of plays present themselves at acceptable odds.

3. Rakeback/Rebate: I don't know much about the American scene. However, it would be great if you can raise your play to a level where you are profitable even without the rebate.

4. Coaching Sites: If you find any, ask for a documented proof (a wagering account printout, maybe) before you allow yourself to enrol. Remember, people are generally eager to share knowledge when they are either losers, or very close to beating this game, but the moment they perfect the system and become surefire winners, the best they will do for you is only throw hints if you ask the right questions. I too am no exception.

5. Software: PA should be the best source for this as some of the members here are engaged in this business.

6: Books: Not much help from me here as I have read very, very few books on handicapping. But the one that I read and would recommend to a beginner as "must-read" is Tom Ainslie's The compleat horseplayer (http://www.amazon.com/Compleat-Horseplayer-Tom-Ainslie/dp/0671771191/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1308721684&sr=1-1). Though I read it recently, I thought is has tremendous value for a beginner. Later, when you think you are a decent handicapper and now need to be a better decision maker, you may glance at the following books:
Why Flip A Coin (http://www.amazon.com/Why-Flip-Coin-Science-Decisions/dp/0471296457/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1308721545&sr=8-2) (A good introduction to the science of decision making)

Charlie Munger's speech on human misjudgment at Harvard (http://www.rbcpa.com/Mungerspeech_june_95.pdf) (pdf link)

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (http://www.amazon.com/Reminiscences-Stock-Operator-Annotated-Edwin/dp/0470481595/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1308721900&sr=1-2) (an absolute classic, useful for any speculator--full of gems and pearls of wisdom that you can use. You can possibly get a free pdf edition of this book as it was written nearly 100 years ago)

7: Sucker Bets: Once you develop a winning method, any bets outside of your method are sucker bets for long term. And until then, your record keeping should be the most authentic source of "your" personal sucker bets, and it's never too difficult to learn from your own mistakes if only you have kept the track.

8 & 9: I don't know.

Good luck.

[thew92]

Hopefully this is of some value to you. Feel free to PM me if you have any other questions. Who knows? Maybe you can even help me with my poker game. :) Best of luck to you!

I played limit hold'em. I would be willing to help in anyway I could but I only fell conferable giving pointers at limit hold'em. Never really cared to much for NL hold'em. Plus I have played since 4-14-11.

[Robert Goren]

I played limit hold'em. I would be willing to help in anyway I could but I only fell conferable giving pointers at limit hold'em. Never really cared to much for NL hold'em. Plus I have played since 4-14-11. I think that some of the poker player strategy can be applied to horse racing, but probably not its tactics. I am looking at applying the "Omaha Strategy" to show betting in races where there a large amount of money on one horse. I have a thread going on the test.

[ranchwest]

My suggestions:

1) Learn about
pace
form
class
connections (jockey, trainer, owner)
physicality (how the horse looks)

2) Ignore what EVERYONE else says about how to USE the points in #1.

3) Learn EVERYTHING about 1 track or circuit

4) Study winning horses and develop your own style of play -- it is too difficult to try to figure out whether other people have a clue or how much money you'll have to bet before you figure out what they do or don't know.

5) NEVER let odds influence your analysis. Chronologically, wagering comes AFTER a solid analysis.

6) Just like poker, the better you understand probabilities, the more likely you are to win. And, just like poker, sometimes you have to know when to break the traditional rules on probabilities. Just like poker players sometimes bluff, sometimes horse trainers bluff -- read them!

7) In nearly every race, there are several horses that will not perform up to their previous level. Learning to recognize them is critical.

[whodoyoulike]

7) In nearly every race, there are several horses that will not perform up to their previous level. Learning to recognize them is critical.

Currently, I've been interested in this factor. Do you have any suggestions where I should start? My contenders seem to:

1) hit the board. I may not win but, at least I'm satisfied the horse was a contender.
2) runs well then fade. Usually, the horse gets caught up in a speed duel when it hasn't in the recent past. And,
3) or come in last.

I'm trying to improve #2 and #3.

Any help will be appreciated. Thanks.

[ranchwest]

Currently, I've been interested in this factor. Do you have any suggestions where I should start? My contenders seem to:

1) hit the board. I may not win but, at least I'm satisfied the horse was a contender.
2) runs well then fade. Usually, the horse gets caught up in a speed duel when it hasn't in the recent past. And,
3) or come in last.

I'm trying to improve #2 and #3.

Any help will be appreciated. Thanks.

I'd say form and pace are my two biggest eliminators.

I also consider horses that have numbers that look "too good" to be suspect. I look to see if such horses have "holes" that suggest they really are suspect, such as long layoffs, etc. I only continue to consider such horses if I don't notice significant holes. These horses are often dropped into a race because the trainer knows the horse has issues.

A horse that shows no positive form should be considered highly suspect.

Horses that cannot handle the pace are also poor wagers.

The fading horse is often up against a horse(s) that show(s) one or more of the following:

1) Shows to finish better consistently

2) Excellent form

3) Better early speed

4) More consistent connections (better jockey and/or trainer)

5) Better physicality

Don't be afraid to make eliminations. Know that you will have to live with any decision you make, so go ahead and make the solid eliminations and choose from what is left for the top spot.

Does that answer your question?

[Robert Goren]

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (http://www.amazon.com/Reminiscences-Stock-Operator-Annotated-Edwin/dp/0470481595/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1308721900&sr=1-2) is available for free at


http://ebooks.gutenberg.us/WorldeBookLibrary.com/confessstock.htm#1_0_25

[whodoyoulike]

To: Ranchwest,

Thank you for taking the time to provide the additional info.

[pondman]

Currently, I've been interested in this factor. Do you have any suggestions where I should start? My contenders seem to:

1) hit the board. I may not win but, at least I'm satisfied the horse was a contender.
2) runs well then fade. Usually, the horse gets caught up in a speed duel when it hasn't in the recent past. And,
3) or come in last.

I'm trying to improve #2 and #3.

Any help will be appreciated. Thanks.
Are you winning any? What about over time? Are you ahead?

In this game the best players take the shots and lose many races, but over time make money with strategic bets. I'll go +40%, which means I've had plenty of horses get beat at the wire, or come in last. On the other hand, I've had horses drop from the clouds and smoke the field, leaving the crowd to say "What?". Expect to lose, but bet consistent enough that you can have a bet on a 25-1 shot, without worry. You need to develop a "I have no fear" attitude, when you start to win.

I think you'll make a mistake by trying to eliminate #2 and #3. Expect it to happen. If a horse is a good bet over time, continue to bet it.

Probably the best suggestion anyone can make is don't bet the horse everyone else likes. Sit out if your horse isn't going to pay enough.

[raybo]

I have been to lone star park a few time and loved it. But sometimes its hard for me to get out there.

Also David are you a Mean Green fan just noticed your location I went to school there from 1998-2001.

I, too, am a Texas resident, having lived and worked all over the state. I moved from the DFW area to Cedar Creek Lake in 2004. I played full time for a period of time when I first moved down here.

I'm an ex-UT student, "ex" as in 1967-68, then the Air Force for 8 years. I've been 'capping horses since 1978 and created my first handicapping spreadsheet many years ago. I wouldn't use any other platform. You can do anything with the data that you want, if you can get around in Excel.

So, if you have Excel, any version, and know a little bit about its use, then go here, http://alldataexcel.weebly.com , read about what we've been doing in Excel and if it sounds good to you, download the 2 workbooks (they're both free), buy some $1 race cards from Brisnet and you're ready to go.

Welcome to the most challenging game on the planet!

I also have a racing forum, where you can interact with other AllData users, or discuss other software, handicapping processes/methods, etc.. The forum is located here: http://alldataexcel.freeforums.org/

[letswastemoney]

Learn who the better handicappers are on here and try to understand their logic.