Will you come back to California Racing if the takeout is lowered and they go to

[Igeteven]

Will you come back to California Racing if the takeout is lowered and they go to Fla and Ky style of bets.

We all know that California racing handle is way down, they are completely ignoring the average bettor while KY and Fla are not.

Repeatably I have warned management that have killed off the average bettor to play and make money.

As we all know, management out here is in the stone age and doesn't want to do nothing to please the customer.

Right now, they're not getting new people and the average player is going where he can afford to play.

I have predicted that Del Mar will take a bath this summer unless they match Saratoga in the style of bets they have.

So people, will you come back if the following take place.

1. Lower the take out

2. Go to Ky and Fla style of bets.

[Producer]

What is Ky and Fla style bets supposed to mean? Lowering the takeout I'm obviously all for.

Kentucky racing, other than keeneland and the big days, is terrible right now also if you haven't noticed. Lots of short fields.


Personally, full fields are most important to me. I don't care if the takeout is 10% if its all 4 and 5 horse fields. I'm still not betting it.

[Igeteven]

Producer

Take a look at their betting menu and respond tomorrow.

As to full fields, I am all for it.

[lamboguy]

any horseplayer will prefer full fields to lower takeout. california tracks are terrible rebate tracks these days, and the product ain't what it used to be. i guess they are still around because the its the favorite tracks for the whole state of nevada, and has plenty of local people that love the racing there. but when a horseplayer from other parts makes his choices these days califronia ranks pretty low on the list.

[Tom]

NO.

The product will still suck.

[stuball]

NO ---NO---and NO. When they start doing their jobs properly and I mean
tracks and racing board and owners...then we will consider purchasing their
product...

Stuball

[jelly]

Full fields and the lowest possible takeout and the game will grow.

[Charli125]

Kentucky racing, other than keeneland and the big days, is terrible right now also if you haven't noticed. Lots of short fields.


Churchill is averaging 7.9 horses per race which is .3 above last year for the same period. Not great, but not terrible.

Here are comparable field sizes for the 5 tracks I'm tracking(Not playing, just tracking) right now.

Track: Last Year/This Year
Arlington: 7.4/8.6
Belmont: 7.8/7.4
Calder: 8.2/7.9
Churchill: 7.6/7.9
Golden Gate: 6.7/6.6
Hollywood: 7.9/7.6

[Igeteven]

Churchill is averaging 7.9 horses per race which is .3 above last year for the same period. Not great, but not terrible.

Here are comparable field sizes for the 5 tracks I'm tracking(Not playing, just tracking) right now.

Track: Last Year/This Year
Arlington: 7.4/8.6
Belmont: 7.8/7.4
Calder: 8.2/7.9
Churchill: 7.6/7.9
Golden Gate: 6.7/6.6
Hollywood: 7.9/7.6

Here in California, lets take HP, only the 3, 5 and the last race most of the time has full fields, why, I will explain

1. 3rd race, beginning of the pick 6

2. 5th race, beginning of the late pick 4

3. 8th race, last race of the pick 6 and the late pick 4, super high five, etc.


They do this on purpose to get the most in the first and last leg of the bet.

Now you tell me, if the track has a interest in the bets.

[Charli125]

Here in California, lets take HP, only the 3, 5 and the last race most of the time has full fields, why, I will explain

1. 3rd race, beginning of the pick 6

2. 5th race, beginning of the late pick 4

3. 8th race, last race of the pick 6 and the late pick 4, etc.


They do this on purpose to get the most in the first and last leg of the bet.

Now you tell me, if the track has a interest in the bets.

You'll get no argument from me there. I was merely commenting on overall field size, not race specific field size.

CA is doing a lot of smart tricky little things to attract people to their product like the players pick 5 and the things you mentioned above. Unfortunately, they're ignoring the biggest, most important item which is takeout.

[Igeteven]

You'll get no argument from me there. I was merely commenting on overall field size, not race specific field size.

CA is doing a lot of smart tricky little things to attract people to their product like the players pick 5 and the things you mentioned above. Unfortunately, they're ignoring the biggest, most important item which is takeout.

Take out and the style of betting is is number one, remember the average player doesn't have a large bank roll like a lot of players here.

I am looking at the whole picture here, why people are playing in huge numbers in KY and Fla racing.

[Robert Goren]

Are people really playing CD anytime except derby weekend this year? I haven't looked at them this year, but last year the races they were carding were interchangable with Indiana Downs. Just asking.

[Canarsie]

Are people really playing CD anytime except derby weekend this year? I haven't looked at them this year, but last year the races they were carding were interchangable with Indiana Downs. Just asking.

Once again you have stuck your foot in your mouth. Just because you don't like the announcer doesn't mean people aren't playing there. You play Tampa and lots (don't include me) really don't care for Grunder and their handle has gone up consistently.

http://www.churchilldowns.com/news/archives/churchill-downs-boost-overnight-purses-10-percent.

[rufus999]

Lots of short fields.
Personally, full fields are most important to me. I don't care if the takeout is 10% if its all 4 and 5 horse fields. I'm still not betting it.

I agree. Nothing wrong with CA racing that the addition of three or four horses per race wouldn't solve.

rufus:9::9::9:

[Charli125]

Are people really playing CD anytime except derby weekend this year? I haven't looked at them this year, but last year the races they were carding were interchangable with Indiana Downs. Just asking.

Yes, people are playing CD.

As of June 5th:
Total Handle -4%
3 fewer race days, 31 fewer races
Handle/Race +8%
Handle/Day +9%

[toussaud]

You'll get no argument from me there. I was merely commenting on overall field size, not race specific field size.

CA is doing a lot of smart tricky little things to attract people to their product like the players pick 5 and the things you mentioned above. Unfortunately, they're ignoring the biggest, most important item which is takeout.
get it right

hollywood park is doing alot of smart things



the CHRB is ignoring the biggest most imoprtant item, which is takeout.

bless hollywood park they are trying. they really are.

[Charli125]

get it right

hollywood park is doing alot of smart things

the CHRB is ignoring the biggest most imoprtant item, which is takeout.

bless hollywood park they are trying. they really are.

I wouldn't go that far at all. I know that the TOC has blocked a lot of good ideas, but I wouldn't go so far as to say Hollywood Park is really trying hard. They can, and should do a lot more. If they came out in public and put the pressure on the TOC, we would see some movement. The TOC would either give in or be decertified. They should stop playing politics and focus on growing business at their track, no matter what the TOC thinks.

They're trying a bunch of little things that should have a positive impact on field size and handle. Sure, they're smart moves, but when done alone they don't amount to squat. If they were doing these small things in congress with lower takeout, handle would be up. Unfortunately they're taking the easy way out and only doing things that they can do without TOC buy-in.

Imagine where handle would be without the Players Pick 5. They would be another 6 million or so in the hole. The TOC was dead against that bet, and look what happened.

[toussaud]

I wouldn't go that far at all. I know that the TOC has blocked a lot of good ideas, but I wouldn't go so far as to say Hollywood Park is really trying hard. They can, and should do a lot more. If they came out in public and put the pressure on the TOC, we would see some movement. The TOC would either give in or be decertified. They should stop playing politics and focus on growing business at their track, no matter what the TOC thinks.

They're trying a bunch of little things that should have a positive impact on field size and handle. Sure, they're smart moves, but when done alone they don't amount to squat. If they were doing these small things in congress with lower takeout, handle would be up. Unfortunately they're taking the easy way out and only doing things that they can do without TOC buy-in.

Imagine where handle would be without the Players Pick 5. They would be another 6 million or so in the hole. The TOC was dead against that bet, and look what happened.

yes and then lose the support of the few owners and trainers they do have? that isn't being realistic

hollywood park is doing all they can do given the situation to try to stay in business while helping the bettors.

[Charli125]

yes and then lose the support of the few owners and trainers they do have? that isn't being realistic

hollywood park is doing all they can do given the situation to try to stay in business while helping the bettors.

Well, I disagree.

By sticking with the status quo they're putting themselves out of business. It's time for some out of the box thinking and tough decisions. by caving to the TOC they have nobody to blame but themselves.

I'll certainly give more credit to Hollywood than say Santa Anita or Golden Gate, but as a business owner it's up to them to right the ship. (Golden Gate handle by the way is down 18% with the same field size as last year and an 11% purse increase.)

[Igeteven]

I have no idea what HP is trying to help the customer except for the pick 5,

I would like to see the same style of bets as the other states have and drop the takeout


I like the 50 cent pick 3, and the dollar DD, Cal Racing will not have it except for Los Al on the DD. I have personally hit some great pick 3 playing Florida racing, because I can cover more horses for half the bet.

Management are hogs when it comes to taking money away from the player for bets with the high takeout. There is no churn money here.

Here is one of the main problems here in California.

1. We have our hard core players, no matter what, they will still play the California tracks, These people will not change.

2. California is not replacing them with new ones, the old horseplay's are dying off.

3. California has back stab the player so much that 1/3 so far will never come back.

3. The takeout is so high, I can guess next year, they will have to go for another increase in takeout to make up for the loses for this year.

4. Is HP really making any money with the 14 percent take out on the bet?

5. I predict, Del Mar will take a drop in handle, because Saratoga will kill with a better product.

6. The outer state player can buy the product cheaper at KY or Fla for the same bet. I writing about the average player now.

7. Our Cal Racing board have no guts to say no to nothing except: tell the player to shut up and sit down.

8. The TOC out here has so much power over the tracks, that they control all bets and tell the track what to do.

9. The cost of a horse is around $4000.00- $4.500.00 per month, the costs of a animal out here to race is way above the average owner can afford. Even Frank Stronach, who owns 1000 horses, doesn't race out here.

10. That's why we have short fields, and high purses, to keep the owners happy and not ship their horse out of State.

So what do we have out here, short fields and handle that is not worth a damn.

This just a few problems we have out here.

[BlueShoe]

Nothing wrong with CA racing that the addition of three or four horses per race wouldn't solve.
Well, depending on your perspective, next week things could get a wee bit better. Today is closing day at Golden Gate and then the NorCal circuit switches to the summer fairs. The bad parts are that the takeout will be even higher than it was at GG plus some real cheap erratic runners in from the minor circuits will be competing. The good parts are that the field sizes should be larger than they were at GG and they will be racing on good old fashioned dirt. Take your choice, pass or take a few shots.

[carlonr]

Will you come back to California Racing if the takeout is lowered and they go to Fla and Ky style of bets.

We all know that California racing handle is way down, they are completely ignoring the average bettor while KY and Fla are not.

Repeatably I have warned management that have killed off the average bettor to play and make money.

As we all know, management out here is in the stone age and doesn't want to do nothing to please the customer.

Right now, they're not getting new people and the average player is going where he can afford to play.

I have predicted that Del Mar will take a bath this summer unless they match Saratoga in the style of bets they have.

So people, will you come back if the following take place.

1. Lower the take out

2. Go to Ky and Fla style of bets.


Please define: "Del Mar will take a bath this summer"

[gm10]

Even though I think find Cal racing a bit boring, especially the new dirt at Santa Anita, I think it's going to go through a bit of a renaissance when exchange betting arrives. It's not just lower commission that attracts people to exchange betting, lots of young people find it cool, regardless of the thing they're betting on. If it's delivered the right way, Cal racing could be in a for a bit of a bonanza.

[andymays]

Even though I think find Cal racing a bit boring, especially the new dirt at Santa Anita, I think it's going to go through a bit of a renaissance when exchange betting arrives. It's not just lower commission that attracts people to exchange betting, lots of young people find it cool, regardless of the thing they're betting on. If it's delivered the right way, Cal racing could be in a for a bit of a bonanza.

They're planning on charging 10% commission on winning wagers. Betfair may not happen in California. Right now I'd say it's likely that they won't open up.

[Igeteven]

They're planning on charging 10% commission on winning wagers. Betfair may not happen in California. Right now I'd say it's likely that they won't open up.

what?

[Igeteven]

Please define: "Del Mar will take a bath this summer"

Saratoga, will take a huge amount of players from the mid west and the east coast, Del Mar will get what ever is left over.

With the takeout and their style of bets, why play there.

[FenceBored]

Like many of us here I wondered why CA racetrack executives would feel their customers would be dumb enough to agree to the higher level of takeout. Yes, I know the standard answer: "Look around, they've already done it elsewhere." But, last night it came to me. The state's rake on the proposed VLTs for Ohio tracks is 50% of gross revenues. That's a 50% takeout. Let that sink in for a moment and you'll understand the insight.



Ready?



Racetrack execs are convinced their customers are foolish enough to take that kind of deal, because they themselves are.

[Fingal]

Please define: "Del Mar will take a bath this summer"

Please define "average player"

[Igeteven]

Please define "average player"

The average player is in my opinion. A person who spends around seventy five dollars on a Saturday or Sunday playing the races.


A weekend warrior.

[pondman]

I review the horses running in California every day. If I can make money, I'll play. Don't assume there is some general boycott out there. The pools are down because California's unemployment rate is at 12.5%.

[pondman]

Saratoga, will take a huge amount of players from the mid west and the east coast, Del Mar will get what ever is left over.

.

I'll play horses shipped from Saratoga, because they are generally superior when they leave. Doesn't matter where they are shipped. Saratoga itself won't get any of my money.

It's the economy-- people without any money. Not the product.

[Caroline]

Right. And the California economy at Los Alamitos is so much better than the California economy at Hollywood Park or Santa Anita or Golden Gate Fields in 2011. Do you know what the unemployment stats look like by county? And how they correlate with handle? And the economy of California so determines the betting activity of all the out of state bettors' income lost over the past 6.5 months.

Try again.

Even racetrack execs putting out the rose tinted media releases pretty much gave up on the "it's the economy" argument for lost handle this year in California. They even gave up on the "weather out east" argument after a while (my personal favorite)...you know, when the weather out east improved. Now, it's all about the miniscule marginal % decline in average field size which, by any known scientific measure, is B.S. given the % decline in handle.

This is the only imperfectly competitive but non-monopoly industry I am aware of in which participants actually believe that pricing doesn't matter - and despite all evidence to the contrary, will stick by that, rather than face the facts.

[PaceAdvantage]

I review the horses running in California every day. If I can make money, I'll play. Don't assume there is some general boycott out there. The pools are down because California's unemployment rate is at 12.5%.Assume? Why would you assume when the fact is that there actually EXISTS a general boycott out there.

The entire country is mired in tough economic times, and yet there are tracks that have posted some impressive numbers this year that have been well documented here on this board.

[andymays]

Right. And the California economy at Los Alamitos is so much better than the California economy at Hollywood Park or Santa Anita or Golden Gate Fields in 2011. Do you know what the unemployment stats look like by county? And how they correlate with handle? And the economy of California so determines the betting activity of all the out of state bettors' income lost over the past 6.5 months.

Try again.

Even racetrack execs putting out the rose tinted media releases pretty much gave up on the "it's the economy" argument for lost handle this year in California. They even gave up on the "weather out east" argument after a while (my personal favorite)...you know, when the weather out east improved. Now, it's all about the miniscule marginal % decline in average field size which, by any known scientific measure, is B.S. given the % decline in handle.

This is the only imperfectly competitive but non-monopoly industry I am aware of in which participants actually believe that pricing doesn't matter - and despite all evidence to the contrary, will stick by that, rather than face the facts.

Great post.

I think the great majority of industry insiders now know that pricing does matter along with field size but in my opinion the TOC and a handful of powerful people are blocking any adjustment in the exotic takeout rates. ALL the evidence clearly shows that we were right and they were wrong.

When people try something and learn they have made a mistake the proper thing to do is to admit the mistake and correct it. There should have been a correction by the end of February and here we are in the middle of June.

[Igeteven]

good post Andy, It will still take the down fall of the TOC to do what you want.

[andymays]

good post Andy, It will still take the down fall of the TOC to do what you want.

I agree.

[Producer]

I still don't really get what you mean by Ky and Fla style of bets. What, lowering the minimums? Anybody that is serious about betting exotics isn't going to stay away from the bet because the minimum is $1 as opposed to .50 and vice versa. The only bet that could be mentioned is maybe the .10 pk 6 at Gulfstream. But that kind of bet is only successful because of the large, competitive fields at GP causing carryovers. With the short fields in CA, that bet would never carryover and would be a bust.

It all comes down to field size. Followed by takeout. The bets being offered are fine, the product and what they are charging for an inferior product stinks.

[Igeteven]

I still don't really get what you mean by Ky and Fla style of bets. What, lowering the minimums? Anybody that is serious about betting exotics isn't going to stay away from the bet because the minimum is $1 as opposed to .50 and vice versa. The only bet that could be mentioned is maybe the .10 pk 6 at Gulfstream. But that kind of bet is only successful because of the large, competitive fields at GP causing carryovers. With the short fields in CA, that bet would never carryover and would be a bust.

It all comes down to field size. Followed by takeout. The bets being offered are fine, the product and what they are charging for an inferior product stinks.

Here we go again, People like fractional betting, one can play what he wants without going to the poor house, if you like 1 dollar DD, play them, if you want to bet more, do it.

Everyone has a different budget to play the horses, most people can't afford a huge ticket, with this type of betting, one can win and win big.

I have won some nice pick 3's playing 50 cents, I can spread more and more

It give the little man a chance to score a good hit.