Robert Fischer
06-08-2011, 10:45 PM
Master of Hounds enters the Belmont Stakes as the most interesting horse.
I don't see him as the best or the most charismatic or any of those superlatives, but he is the most interesting horse in the field from a pure handicapping perspective. Foreign form to analyze, top foreign connections, interesting trip in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf @ 2, interesting trip in the UAE DERBY 1900M @ 3, and an absolutely fascinating trip in the Kentucky Derby.
Juvenile Turf = a tough trip in that he was exposed early at the top of the stretch where it was advantageous to have waited until deeper. Did not have the turn of foot to match his more brilliant rivals. Showed some signs(lack of turn of foot, bit of a grinding style and decent long drive) that he would be worth a try on the dirt. Did not stand out in this race.
UAE DERBY- Gritty effort Very nearly held off a very good turf filly who had every advantage. Relatively strong prep race comparable to some of the graded US preps. The fact that it was a game effort at 1900meters was cause for upgrade when comparing to some of the shorter and more speed favoring preps stateside. Filly Khawlah won that race, Master of Hounds had a better performance(and the best of the race). While the time was strong for both horses (6.26K, 6.43MOH) in the last fraction, it was not extremely visually impressive. MoH also took a stride or two to finally change leads.
KENTUCKY DERBY- Master of Hands had a perfect trip early sitting deep in the pocket far enough from the pace to avoid all stress, but close enough to strike. Gomez gave MoH a PERFECT ride, extremely patient without asking before the turn. As the tiring "chasers" bottle-necked Gomez was forced to continue to be patient, give Master of Hounds a breather, and wait until entering the stretch before asking. With 350 yards to go Gomez roused his mount vigorously through traffic for some of the most spectacular looking displays of stretch running. Not only was it visually impressive, it was also impressive by the numbers. With a furlong to go, Master of Hounds was 3rd fastest according to Trakus. With a 16th to go...Master of Hounds was FASTEST. AND.... as he crossed the FINISH LINE, Master of Hounds 35.9 mph was best, while Animal Kingdom crossed the finish line second fastest going at a rate of 35.2 mph. Impressive stuff!
Yet after all this I am not overly excited about Master of Hounds chances.
This trip was a textbook example of traffic causing internal fractions to look and run more impressive than they were. Although he finished 5th, his final time feet/seconds velocity(using trakus) was good for 10th best in the Derby.
The best things that I saw in the Kentucky Derby from Hounds was that he didn't regress from his good UAE Derby, and that he put on a little weight. (He also didn't appear to hesitate to change leads, although that was a little tough to see in traffic.)
However the traffic(drafting, allowing for breathers, and making last run) and the ground saved, helped Master of Hounds a lot to conserve his energy into those short bursts, and those bursts while visually stunning and techically fun to calculate, were not even dominant by any means in the Derby - in other words he was just like several others(some of which ended up well ahead in Velocity metrics)
I think he has one shot when it comes to Animal Kingdom or Nehro = he needs to depend on jockey error from their pilots. And it could happen. What Gomez and "Hounds" need from Velazquez and Nakatani is for those two to wait...wait...wait...wait...
wait...
he needs those two to wait...wait...wait...wait...
wait... (2nd set of "waits" added for emphasis :liar: )
If this race is run too conservatively by the favorites, and they let it become a final 3 or 4 furlong sprint to the wire after an easy gallop, then it opens the doors for Master of Hounds and others.
Animal Kingdom is clearly flat out better than anyone here except for Nehro which he has past-performance edges on, but has yet to race Nehro on a level playing field(however, Animal Kingdom is a worthy favorite between the two).
Master of Hounds however remains INTERESTING. - Remember that his best chance is a one- run sprint to the wire.
However - worth noting that he is Fresh(whatever that's worth) and that his natural aptitude is that of a grinder (remember the UAE DERBY? , AND HIS LACK OF FOOT IN THE JUVY TURF?) - What this means is that he has some unknown form regarding how he'll fare in a grind out race in which Velazquez and Nakatani don't screw up... Maybe he'll be OK?
Blue Collar hero Shackleford figures to work hard and carry the lead a LOT further than most pundits predict... This means a tough pace... a gaped field?? Tiring runners who struggle to make up ground...
GRINDERS?
I don't see him as the best or the most charismatic or any of those superlatives, but he is the most interesting horse in the field from a pure handicapping perspective. Foreign form to analyze, top foreign connections, interesting trip in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf @ 2, interesting trip in the UAE DERBY 1900M @ 3, and an absolutely fascinating trip in the Kentucky Derby.
Juvenile Turf = a tough trip in that he was exposed early at the top of the stretch where it was advantageous to have waited until deeper. Did not have the turn of foot to match his more brilliant rivals. Showed some signs(lack of turn of foot, bit of a grinding style and decent long drive) that he would be worth a try on the dirt. Did not stand out in this race.
UAE DERBY- Gritty effort Very nearly held off a very good turf filly who had every advantage. Relatively strong prep race comparable to some of the graded US preps. The fact that it was a game effort at 1900meters was cause for upgrade when comparing to some of the shorter and more speed favoring preps stateside. Filly Khawlah won that race, Master of Hounds had a better performance(and the best of the race). While the time was strong for both horses (6.26K, 6.43MOH) in the last fraction, it was not extremely visually impressive. MoH also took a stride or two to finally change leads.
KENTUCKY DERBY- Master of Hands had a perfect trip early sitting deep in the pocket far enough from the pace to avoid all stress, but close enough to strike. Gomez gave MoH a PERFECT ride, extremely patient without asking before the turn. As the tiring "chasers" bottle-necked Gomez was forced to continue to be patient, give Master of Hounds a breather, and wait until entering the stretch before asking. With 350 yards to go Gomez roused his mount vigorously through traffic for some of the most spectacular looking displays of stretch running. Not only was it visually impressive, it was also impressive by the numbers. With a furlong to go, Master of Hounds was 3rd fastest according to Trakus. With a 16th to go...Master of Hounds was FASTEST. AND.... as he crossed the FINISH LINE, Master of Hounds 35.9 mph was best, while Animal Kingdom crossed the finish line second fastest going at a rate of 35.2 mph. Impressive stuff!
Yet after all this I am not overly excited about Master of Hounds chances.
This trip was a textbook example of traffic causing internal fractions to look and run more impressive than they were. Although he finished 5th, his final time feet/seconds velocity(using trakus) was good for 10th best in the Derby.
The best things that I saw in the Kentucky Derby from Hounds was that he didn't regress from his good UAE Derby, and that he put on a little weight. (He also didn't appear to hesitate to change leads, although that was a little tough to see in traffic.)
However the traffic(drafting, allowing for breathers, and making last run) and the ground saved, helped Master of Hounds a lot to conserve his energy into those short bursts, and those bursts while visually stunning and techically fun to calculate, were not even dominant by any means in the Derby - in other words he was just like several others(some of which ended up well ahead in Velocity metrics)
I think he has one shot when it comes to Animal Kingdom or Nehro = he needs to depend on jockey error from their pilots. And it could happen. What Gomez and "Hounds" need from Velazquez and Nakatani is for those two to wait...wait...wait...wait...
wait...
he needs those two to wait...wait...wait...wait...
wait... (2nd set of "waits" added for emphasis :liar: )
If this race is run too conservatively by the favorites, and they let it become a final 3 or 4 furlong sprint to the wire after an easy gallop, then it opens the doors for Master of Hounds and others.
Animal Kingdom is clearly flat out better than anyone here except for Nehro which he has past-performance edges on, but has yet to race Nehro on a level playing field(however, Animal Kingdom is a worthy favorite between the two).
Master of Hounds however remains INTERESTING. - Remember that his best chance is a one- run sprint to the wire.
However - worth noting that he is Fresh(whatever that's worth) and that his natural aptitude is that of a grinder (remember the UAE DERBY? , AND HIS LACK OF FOOT IN THE JUVY TURF?) - What this means is that he has some unknown form regarding how he'll fare in a grind out race in which Velazquez and Nakatani don't screw up... Maybe he'll be OK?
Blue Collar hero Shackleford figures to work hard and carry the lead a LOT further than most pundits predict... This means a tough pace... a gaped field?? Tiring runners who struggle to make up ground...
GRINDERS?