Horses To Watch list

[PhantomOnTour]

I believe every serious player has one. How do you find horses to populate your list?

Troubled trips?
Strong in-race move during a fast fraction?
Speed/pace fig plays (a possible future key race)?
Fought a biased track and fared well?
Trainer angle? (Trainer X is great with 2nd starters and his firster just made a nice stretch run or showed good speed, for example)
You follow other folks' lists such as Litfin or Serling, etc...?

I tend to look for two things. The first being a horse who fought a biased track. A horse who closes well while wide on a +E +Rail track has run a nice race.
I also look for fast finishes on turf, which basically falls under the "strong in-race move during fast fraction" category. Since the last fraction is usually the fastest in turf routes, I give serious credit to horses who gained ground during the fastest segment of the race.

Any other clever ideas out there for building a potent Horses To Watch list?

[windoor]

Any horse that I played to win and did not hit the board.

An on the board finish means the horse tried as expected, but did not have enough for today. He/She will have to qualify as a play the next time out.

If the horse did not hit the board, I am very much interested the next time he/she runs.

Good signs are:

Obvious trouble in the race, and is excused.
Next out is within 10 days
Next out is change in class level. Up or Down.
Next out is change in Jockey
Next out is change in distance or surface.

My win percent on these horses are just as good as anything else I do, but at a much higher average odd.

Regards

Windoor

[KingChas]

I believe every serious player has one. How do you find horses to populate your list?


Key Races-(Requires Homework).

[Robert Goren]

I have often thought although I don't keep one, you would be better served with a "don't touch with a ten foot pole" list.

[exiles]

Horses that are being bet despite not so good last 2 or 3 races and show some life during the race.

[therussmeister]

I'm a very serious player and I don't have one because most of the things on your list, (in fact all but the first and last), can be spotted in the form. Indeed your list is how I evaluate every horse in every race, and is very nearly my entire handicapping methodology.

[thaskalos]

Horses that are battling for the lead in-between horses, turning for home.

Speed horses with outside post positions, in races loaded with early speed.

Horses with promising dirt form, who are asked to run back-to-back races over the turf course...eventhough they show a disdain for the surface.

[Robert Fischer]

I believe every serious player has one. How do you find horses to populate your list?

Troubled trips?
Strong in-race move during a fast fraction?
Speed/pace fig plays (a possible future key race)?
Fought a biased track and fared well?
Trainer angle? (Trainer X is great with 2nd starters and his firster just made a nice stretch run or showed good speed, for example)
You follow other folks' lists such as Litfin or Serling, etc...?

I tend to look for two things. The first being a horse who fought a biased track. A horse who closes well while wide on a +E +Rail track has run a nice race.
I also look for fast finishes on turf, which basically falls under the "strong in-race move during fast fraction" category. Since the last fraction is usually the fastest in turf routes, I give serious credit to horses who gained ground during the fastest segment of the race.

Any other clever ideas out there for building a potent Horses To Watch list?

The best way to do it is by whatever one or combination of methods that finds you the best value plays.
When you find a great play, and you did a certain thing.
I find that I'm much stronger by doing that work as soon as possible and available (which is why when there was a recent question about how far in advance do you cap a card, I said each time they run). I can't share how I populate my watch list or what specific angles I use. (But I won't give misinformation either, and I don't mind talking macro process)
At first I would use the free watch-lists online, then as the limits were reached, I would use multiple emails to run several concurrent lists, now I find it easier to just sort my "book" alphabetically at the end of each day.
I started out and I was over-ambitious. I said "i want to know all the horse" Something reassuring to person with a life or someone who wants to give "keeping a book" on horses a shot without sketching out a prenuptial agreement... Diminishing Returns
Diminishing Returns = is the ultimate excuse not to spend every second on your "stable"
for a weekend warrior to get a LOT out of a little
no worries! Diminishing Returns!
1. - Skim the "BEST" only write down the BIG plays.
How will you know??
YOU'LL KNOW.
It will be the horse that you see and you have a STRONG feeling about...
...something regarding your best understanding of the game....
these horses are the ones that anecdotally always turn out exactly how we expected (especially if we remember AFTER they ran back!)
They're the guys who motivate us to think about giving a bet-back list a shot in the first place. THEY STAND OUT good or bad.
For most, these stickouts will be the most fruitful, they'll be the most efficient, and they are in your "sweetspot" - that is they are OBVIOUS to you because they stand out from within your skillset as great plays.- and plays in your "sweetspot" require a minimum of extra time invested. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:
TIME IS MONEY and Diminishing Returns means that less is more!
2. - Thinkaboudit! (not DR, but thinkaboud a specific great play you noticed recently)Write down (or by all means fill out an online reminder service if you can't check each card!) write down your great play and go to bed 15min early. I've got a bet for you - bet you can't wait for that horse to run back (boooooo :rolleyes: ) ! seriously, spend 15 minutes thinking about WHY you loved that bet and the PROCESS involved with why u thought of it. If it wasn't some freak stunt you may have yourself the rough beginings of an "angle"....
Maybe these are babysteps to you and this is an old angle of yours that has been decent for years, and now you think about how to use a watch list to skim the best plays of that angle and help keep track of it. This is what I mean when I say:
"by whatever one or combination of methods that finds you the best value plays. When you find a great play, and you did a certain thing."

[PhantomOnTour]

Well whaddaya know....I've got one running tomorrow (8Jun) at Belmont in R9.
Her name is Immaculate Cat, for James Toner, with Jose Lezcano up.
On the other hand, this filly ain't hard to come by...her merits are there for all to see.
A daughter of Storm Cat out of a Mr Prospector mare, making her 2nd lifetime start going 7f on turf after a good closing 2nd in her debut at 6f on turf.
There were 5 turf races on the day of her last race (15May) and four were won wire-wire, though closers did fill out the bottom exotics in a few of those races...so it wasn't a total ++E turf day. Toner is kickin ass so far this meet and Lezcano, imo, is second to none riding on turf, even in NY.
She faces a nice field with some dangerous looking FTS's. Interestingly, she was bred by Colts Neck Stables...ain't that where Alan Goldberg (who has a runner in this race)trains all his horses?
Won't be much of a price despite the tough field...ML of 3-1 looks like it will go down by post time.
Price will determine the play.

[PhantomOnTour]

Great job....released Immaculate Cat and he goes off at 3-5 or something close to that & runs 2nd...nice :rolleyes:

Friday Belmont Race #4:
Slambino 5-1ML