Precision?

[Capper Al]

There is always a lot of talk about speed, beaten lengths, etc in the forum. How would a 10% advantage in post position in a mile race on the dirt translate to lengths or pounds? These are issues that a racing secretary faces when attempting to card a handicap race. I don't expect an answer because it can't be done. But if everything we'd talked about was science then we should be able to formulated an answer.

[Cratos]

There is always a lot of talk about speed, beaten lengths, etc in the forum. How would a 10% advantage in post position in a mile race on the dirt translate to lengths or pounds? These are issues that a racing secretary faces when attempting to card a handicap race. I don't expect an answer because it can't be done. But if everything we'd talked about was science then we should be able to formulated an answer.

Translating a 10% distance advantage in post position at one mile into lengths or time is not hard if you make some rational assumptions about length distance and average time per length. Therefore my assumptions are:

An average length = 10.8660 feet

Average time per length = .172 seconds

This is done under static conditions and under dynamic conditions the results would be different.

Therefore 10% of a mile would equal 528 feet or 48.59 lengths which would equal 8.36 seconds.

The more difficult solution is translating that into pounds, but using a formula I developed from my logarithmic curve methodology I arrived at an average estimate of 2.53 pounds.

I realize that this goes against the long held belief by some that 1 pound equals one-fifth second, but I have never subscribed to that notion

[cj]

I realize that this goes against the long held belief by some that 1 pound equals one-fifth second, but I have never subscribed to that notion

I don't know anyone that believes that any longer. Welcome to the 70s!

[Capper Al]

Translating a 10% distance advantage in post position at one mile into lengths or time is not hard if you make some rational assumptions about length distance and average time per length. Therefore my assumptions are:

An average length = 10.8660 feet

Average time per length = .172 seconds

This is done under static conditions and under dynamic conditions the results would be different.

Therefore 10% of a mile would equal 528 feet or 48.59 lengths which would equal 8.36 seconds.

The more difficult solution is translating that into pounds, but using a formula I developed from my logarithmic curve methodology I arrived at an average estimate of 2.53 pounds.

I realize that this goes against the long held belief by some that 1 pound equals one-fifth second, but I have never subscribed to that notion

Thanks for your math. I don't doubt that they are good estimatioins. Yet, I'm not expecting a 10 horse dead heat in a handicap race any time soon because of precise calculations. I'm just questioning our belief in these numbers.

[Capper Al]

I don't know anyone that believes that any longer. Welcome to the 70s!

1/5 second for 1 length is close enough for handicapping and hand grenades.

[Cratos]

Thanks for your math. I don't doubt that they are good estimatioins. Yet, I'm not expecting a 10 horse dead heat in a handicap race any time soon because of precise calculations. I'm just questioning our belief in these numbers.

You are correct; a 10-horse dead heat is more folly than reality.

[cj]

1/5 second for 1 length is close enough for handicapping and hand grenades.

Well, not really, but if you want to use it be my guest.

[Robert Fischer]

i don't know if all was intentional or involved typos

but we already equated 1lb = .20seconds = 1Length in this thread
and then want to consider 10% degrees of advantage in Post Position...

these are advanced questions, and it is probably dangerous to assume the above scale (assuming it wasn't a typo)

I 'll try to scratch the surface of the 10% advantage in post position...

it would have to be based on the truths of the individual horses as well as the biases in the post positions, AFTER the field was carded.

For example if we were to try considering POST POSITION when assigning weight impost, "Big Brown" drawing post #12 in a 9F handicap at Gulfstream Park, should get less of a weight break for that post position disadvantage than an equally strong handicap horse who would happen to be at a severe disadvantage due to the post-position

.....

I think it is a interesting idea to involve some conservative use of track/post bias into handicapping horses with weight. IF they were to involve that idea they may as well start with imposts that would actually "handicap" a horse a bit. They would generally need to use a great more weight in general, as most so called handicap races are far too conservative in the imposts themselves.

[Fastracehorse]

Translating a 10% distance advantage in post position at one mile into lengths or time is not hard if you make some rational assumptions about length distance and average time per length. Therefore my assumptions are:

An average length = 10.8660 feet

Average time per length = .172 seconds

This is done under static conditions and under dynamic conditions the results would be different.

Therefore 10% of a mile would equal 528 feet or 48.59 lengths which would equal 8.36 seconds.

The more difficult solution is translating that into pounds, but using a formula I developed from my logarithmic curve methodology I arrived at an average estimate of 2.53 pounds.

I realize that this goes against the long held belief by some that 1 pound equals one-fifth second, but I have never subscribed to that notion

.... a 10% advantage meant 528 ft; i thought he meant the post won 10 % more; which would be different, but i see he didn't correct you

fffastt

[Capper Al]

.... a 10% advantage meant 528 ft; i thought he meant the post won 10 % more; which would be different, but i see he didn't correct you

fffastt

Let's use BRIS as an example where they use rail, post 1-3, post 4-7, and 8+. Pick a track with 30 or more starts for the dist/surface. I'm in class, so I can't do it now.

Later