Shackleford is going to the Belmont

[PaceAdvantage]

After Preakness Stakes (gr. I) winner Shackleford breezed five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 at Belmont Park June 4, trainer Dale Romans said the Forestry colt will run in the June 11 Belmont Stakes (gr. I). The fractional splits were the first eighth in :12 1/5, three furlongs in :36 1/5, five furlongs in 1:00 1/5, and he galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.

“He worked super,” Romans said of the exercise regimen in which his partner, Tammy Fox, was aboard Shackleford. “He finished good and I love his energy. He’s handling the track and doing everything the way he’s supposed to, so it’s a go. As long as he comes out of the work good, he will run.” http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/63396/romans-says-shackleford-a-go-for-belmont

[sammy the sage]

Awesome news...the top 3 will take MOST of the money...now there SHOULD be some value somewhere :confused:

[Saratoga_Mike]

Will he be the lone speed in the BEL? Or are there new speed horses entering the mix? Seems like it could unfold like Da'Tara's (I think Shackleford is a better horse than DT of course) Belmont.

[papillon]

i was hoping for this.

i love this horse and think that his "distance limitations" are an illusion--the key with shack is not to let him run alone until the wire is within striking distance, because he gets lonely out there all by himself and slows down to wait for company. he's like a big, sweet tempered dr. fager...the anti-fager :D

shack's 6 furlong 1:14.13 gallop out would have been the bullet at the distance!

Belushi 1:16.04 B 2
Cellist 1:16.04 B 2
Jazzy Giant 1:16.32 B 4
Police Chatter 1:15.04 B 1

[OTM Al]

Saw him this morning coming across the line. May have been to the gallop out by that point but he was moving easy.

[Robert Fischer]

Awesome news..

co-sign Sammy. :ThmbUp:
when sound, THIS IS WHAT WE WANT!

"MY HORSE IS FASTER THAN YOUR HORSE!"
"OH YEA??..." "PROVE IT."

[cj]

I still think he is a toss...he just doesn't run like a horse that wants more distance.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I still think he is a toss...he just doesn't run like a horse that wants more distance.

What if he's on the lead with no pressure?

[cj]

What if he's on the lead with no pressure?

I'm not saying he can't win. But, I don't want a short price horse that is going to need everything go perfect, and even then it is no guarantee he'd hang on.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I'm not saying he can't win. But, I don't want a short price horse that is going to need everything go perfect, and even then it is no guarantee he'd hang on.

I think AK will be the Belmont fav. Obviously that doesn't mean Shackle can't go off as an underlay, though. I think most will question Shackle's distance limitations, and he'll go off around 7-2.

[cj]

I think AK will be the Belmont fav. Obviously that doesn't mean Shackle can't go off as an underlay, though. I think most will question Shackle's distance limitations, and he'll go off around 7-2.

I think that is the upper limit, but I want no parts of him at that price even. Horses that consistently run faster early than late on my numbers have done very poorly in the Belmont over the years.

[JustRalph]

I will be betting against both of them.

[Bruddah]

I will be betting against both of them.

Badda Bing and an Amen Bruddah! :ThmbUp:

[sammy the sage]

ya know CJ...I think/thought the same as you...I KNEW Big Brown would NOT win the Belmont...and HAD 20+ live p3,4's w/every other horse covered in THAT race cept' one...didn't even bother to put a $50 saver win/hedge bet at the end I was SO confident... :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :(

[thaskalos]

IMO...Animal Kingdom has this field at his mercy.

[Spiderman]

IMO...Animal Kingdom has this field at his mercy.
Beat me to it. Animal Kingdom by open lengths.

[Saratoga_Mike]

IMO...Animal Kingdom has this field at his mercy.

But will you defend him as vigorously as you did Z? :)

[Bruddah]

Beat me to it. Animal Kingdom by open lengths.


A verse in an old song covers this. Like a rubber ball that comes bouncing back to me.

[thaskalos]

But will you defend him as vigorously as you did Z? :)
There is only one Z...;)

[JPinMaryland]

Does anyone feel like passing on the Belmont? I like playing the derby and the Preakness usually has some nice exotic payouts. But 12f seems so iffy and none of these horses have run that and few of them will. It just seems like a total crapshoot..

[theguarantee]

Beat me to it. Animal Kingdom by open lengths.

I feel the same way but about Nehro.

[sonnyp]

Saw him this morning coming across the line. May have been to the gallop out by that point but he was moving easy.



just in case anyone is into visuals :


eWxw5WU64YQ

[Robert Fischer]

Does anyone feel like passing on the Belmont? I like playing the derby and the Preakness usually has some nice exotic payouts. But 12f seems so iffy and none of these horses have run that and few of them will. It just seems like a total crapshoot..

It sounds like you should pass the Belmont. Or perhaps play a smaller amount for entertainment purposes. It has to be a personal decision.
Either way, I would recommend watching the race as a fan if possible. :ThmbUp:

I can't wait for this Belmont, because my insight is very high as a horseplayer, but also because this is going to be a true graded quality Belmont.
We haven't had a true graded quality Belmont since 2007!(Curlin vs Rags).
Not only is this field better overall than the 2007 field, the 2011 field will have quality pace (the lack of which severly hampered the quality of the 2007 race).

[PaceAdvantage]

We haven't had a true graded quality Belmont since 2007!(Curlin vs Rags).
Not only is this field better overall than the 2007 field, You didn't just write that Shack and AK are better than Curlin and Rags, did you?

[Robert Fischer]

IMO...Animal Kingdom has this field at his mercy.

Animal Kingdom is very good. He has to be the favorite given that he has already shown himself to be a legit Breeders Cup Classic winning contender and much of this field has unknown potential.

However there are some potentially really good horses here.

Nehro- He was obviously one of the top 3 horses prior to the Derby along with Animal Kingdom, and he hasn't lost that title in my opinion. His did a ton of running in the Derby. He did the most running in the derby, you just have to give Animal Kingdom the credit, because AK stampeded home(and had the phat payouts!), while Nehro was a bit more against the grain.

Master of Hounds - Also did a ton of running in the derby. Downside was that start-n-stop running within the peloton can be deceptive. I also like Animal Kingdoms(femaleSTAMINA! good bone) pedigree more than Master of Hounds pedigree(million chefs in the kitchen) pedigree which is dangerously close to being "designed" before the horse itself. However inspite of all the pitfalls that I see, visually I see a ton of potential. Master of Hounds would LOVE for Animal Kingdom to go conservatively for the first mile and let this turn into a 3-4 furlong sprint to the wire!

Brilliant Speed - Not everybody sees this horse yet. One of the classier 3yos Albertrani has had in a while. Doesn't appear to be a true Grade1.

---------------
Shackleford - This guy is the hope for the 143rd Belmont Stakes to break the 2:27 mark. If the big-gear runners won't run I hope he pulls a Roses In May. Romans has the right idea with a nice big high-cruising speed horse and a hard hitting style. He represents the biggest hope for underlay moneys, and at the same time the best underdog to cheer for. As a fan I'm already rooting for this guy to run big win or lose.

---------------

MUCH:cool: MACH:cool: MAN - OH YEAHH!!!!! ELIZABETH!!!

SANTIVA - enjoyed the pocket trip in Kentucky

Ruler on Ice - This true allowance/g3 level runner a perfect fit for Breen/Halls who tend to keep (what they call) stakes level horses happy and in good form. roi happens to be game runner with good conformation, well suited to any test. visually over-rated-3rd best in good for year Sunland derby (Astrology/best fin2, Twice the appeal/2ndbest fin3rd)

Stay Thirsty - Pletcher runner every good handicapper's first toss, is a danger to lump up, may run longer than appears.

[Robert Fischer]

You didn't just write that Shack and AK are better than Curlin and Rags, did you?

nope,
better overall field


PS. - shack isn't in the top 3 contenders in this belmont field either :p

[JPinMaryland]

I do have a hunch this will be a great Belmont, I am not sure the last really good one we've had. I dont think I saw jazil's win. I thought the '99 race w/ Charismatic/Lemondropkid and that filly was pretty good.

So I do think it might shape to be memorable.

Just don't see how any can have any insight on a race at this distance. So I will definitely pass or make a small bet. I'm not upset about that there should be better races to be later in the summer.

[elysiantraveller]

I got Nehro finishing second!

:lol: :jump: :lol:

[Hank]

i was hoping for this.

i love this horse and think that his "distance limitations" are an illusion--the key with shack is not to let him run alone until the wire is within striking distance, because he gets lonely out there all by himself and slows down to wait for company. he's like a big, sweet tempered dr. fager...the anti-fager :D

shack's 6 furlong 1:14.13 gallop out would have been the bullet at the distance!

And Animal kingdom is kinda like a surly Secretariat, yeah thats it.

[Jasonm921]

Saw him this morning coming across the line. May have been to the gallop out by that point but he was moving easy.

I was probably standing right next to you. Did you see Animal Kingdom today? A little wide eyed and looking around during his jog. I could see why they throw blinkers on him. This is him this morning http://www.flickr.com/photos/easygoer/5800609046/in/photostream

[Steve 'StatMan']

I feel the same way but about Nehro.

I'm going to be looking hard at Nehro, although AK's Derby was much better, but maybe taking the Preakness off will help Nehro have that extra something he's needed. Or as the other poster stated, yeah, he might just run 2nd yet again.

[Dahoss2002]

I got Nehro finishing second!

:lol: :jump: :lol:
whatever exotic I play will have him in it and several times in spot 2.

[toetoe]

i was hoping for this.

i love this horse and think that his "distance limitations" are an illusion--the key with shack is not to let him run alone until the wire is within striking distance, because he gets lonely out there all by himself and slows down to wait for company. he's like a big, sweet tempered dr. fager...the anti-fager :D

shack's 6 furlong 1:14.13 gallop out would have been the bullet at the distance!


A 1/5 bullet ? Not saying he won't win, just saying ... :sleeping: .

[toetoe]

This year's field is deep in the sense that Jazil, Commendable or Da Tara would need a major pileup to win this.

[papillon]

Shackleford - This guy is the hope for the 143rd Belmont Stakes to break the 2:27 mark. If the big-gear runners won't run I hope he pulls a Roses In May. Romans has the right idea with a nice big high-cruising speed horse and a hard hitting style. He represents the biggest hope for underlay moneys, and at the same time the best underdog to cheer for. As a fan I'm already rooting for this guy to run big win or lose.



exactly

[cj's dad]

I do have a hunch this will be a great Belmont, I am not sure the last really good one we've had. I dont think I saw jazil's win. I thought the '99 race w/ Charismatic/Lemondropkid and that filly was pretty good.

So I do think it might shape to be memorable.

Just don't see how any can have any insight on a race at this distance. So I will definitely pass or make a small bet. I'm not upset about that there should be better races to be later in the summer.

Victory Gallop over Real Quiet- a heartbreaker
Touch Gold over silver Charm - ditto

[elysiantraveller]

whatever exotic I play will have him in it and several times in spot 2.

Ditto.

I hate that horse...

[JPinMaryland]

Victory Gallop over Real Quiet- a heartbreaker
Touch Gold over silver Charm - ditto

yeah i know but have we had any great belmonts in the last ten years? birdstone/smarty was decent, I guess.

[Dahoss9698]

Curlin and Rags To Riches was pretty good, no?

Kentucky Oaks and Preakness winner head to head down to the wire.

[Jasonm921]

The 2007 race was awesome and the crowd left rather satisfied....unlike the year later when it seemed like we left a funeral parlor.

I think Animal Kingdom will win it and just by looks he is one good looking horse.
(not my photo)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jsilvaphotos/5807405355/in/photostream

[calltopost]

I think that is the upper limit, but I want no parts of him at that price even. Horses that consistently run faster early than late on my numbers have done very poorly in the Belmont over the years.

http://www.drf.com/blogs/6f-6f-belmont

Isn't that saying the opposite?

[Sugar Ron]

Not sure which will be more hilarious Saturday ... watching Luckyford hit the wall ... or seeing that Pletcher colt get buried again.

[elysiantraveller]

Not sure which will be more hilarious Saturday ... watching Luckyford hit the wall ... or seeing that Pletcher colt get buried again.

Catching anything?

[cj]

http://www.drf.com/blogs/6f-6f-belmont

Isn't that saying the opposite?

That isn't the same thing. They are talking about raw times, and you could say the same thing for pretty much any distance on dirt. My figures already reflect this reality.

[Pell Mell]

I don't think Shack is going to steal anything...a few of those jocks know they made mistakes and they will try to get into the race much sooner this time..I think there will be a surprise or two. :cool:

[elysiantraveller]

I don't think Shack is going to steal anything...a few of those jocks know they made mistakes and they will try to get into the race much sooner this time..I think there will be a surprise or two. :cool:

Who?...

"A few of those jocks"...

Animal Kingdom, Isn't He Perfect, and MMM are the only three returners.

[papillon]

And Animal kingdom is kinda like a surly Secretariat, yeah thats it.

uh...no.

shack is one of the few horses racing, who is directly descended from the good doctor, and even more unusually he has dr. fager on both top and bottom. animal kingdom is not descended from secretariat (though shack is).

shack, like the good doctor, is a gutsy speed horse that needs the lead, but unlike his great grandpappy, he isn't a vicious cus, who refuses to let other horses pass (and rips out chunks of their flesh if they try)(don't get me wrong, i love the doctor, but he wasn't a nice horse :D ); instead he's like this happy go lucky, charge of the light brigade puppy dog, who likes to lead, but not to leave others behind. shack is not as fast as his grandpappy, but he is like him in certain ways, but by no means the second coming of him. thus my joke that he's the anti-fager.

i think shack's personalty is better suited to the modern casual racing fan, than his grandpappy, tbh. if he runs well, he could help fill the void (just a little tiny bit) left by z's retirement. my bet is that one thing he shares with dr. fager is his ability to carry speed over distance.

animal kingdom has nothing in common with secretariat--except his color. he's slow, big red was fast. he's a closer, big red usually had the lead by 3/4 pole, if not sooner, and animal kingdom has about as much a chance of coming within 5 seconds of big red's belmont time, as i do (whereas shack has a game chance to wire the belmont)

animal kingdom is fine horse, but there is no reason to compare him, even jokingly, to big red. BUT it is fair to compare shack to his granpappy because they share a lot in common, including being directly related. just like it is fair to compare mine that bird to birdstone. not the same but the family resemblance is obvious. :rolleyes:

A closer look, however, reveals that the key element in this cross may not be Fappiano but Fappiano's maternal grandsire Dr. Fager, particularly in concert with In Reality, the best maternal grandson of Dr. Fager's sire Rough'n Tumble. Shackleford and Etched, in fact, are both out of dams inbred to In Reality, while Congressionalhonor is out of a mare by Quiet American, a horse inbred 3x2 to Dr. Fager....Of course, three-quarters of Forestry's stakes winners do not have Dr. Fager in their distaff pedigrees at all, but given that the 1968 Horse of the Year is not all that common in pedigrees-Fappiano is by far the most common source-that is not too surprising. (http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/market-watch/archive/2011/06/07/dr-fager-is-key-influence-in-top-forestry-progeny.aspx)

[calltopost]

Hey PAPILLION

...cool name! :ThmbUp: