SPOT PLAYS, MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3rd

[Jim F.]

DELAWARE...

(5) 1-MILES AHEAD 5-1 Twelve panels is just a walk around the block for this Jonathan Sheppard "Marathon Man". Shedding 30 lbs. of lead should help get first turf win.

(8) 5-CHANGE COURSE 5-1 Lightly raced colt loomed boldly at top of the stretch against older in Keenland return. Broke maiden this track/distance.

(9) 4-SEEKING SEATTLE 5-1 Third race off layoff, 35 furlongs of prepping for this carrying 155 lbs! Won this distance last Bastille Day at Philly.


PHILADELPHIA...

(10) 5-VIBRADO 8-1 Six-year-old maiden has spent career in low-level claimers for winners. Wide in last and always makes big effort 3rd race off layoff. "Kamikaze" bet but I can't resist.


TURF PARADISE...

(8) SEARCH ENGINE 10-1 Owner/trainer gets gelding back after unsuccessful N Cal campaign. Last win this level at TuP and owns best fig in field for this distance.

[Jim F.]

CHANGES/ADDITIONS TO SPOT PLAYS SHOWN ABOVE...

TURF PARADISE...

(4) 4-COLONY PARK 4-1 New 2-for-6 trainer may be able to turn this northwest shipper around on the stretch-out. 5-wide in last and owns very quick 5f workout.

(10) 8-SEARCH ENGINE 10-1 Owner/trainer gets gelding back from unsuccessful N. Cal. campaign. Even race 9 days ago, last win here at this level, and owns best fig this distance.

[kingfin66]

There are too many form questions surrounding many of the mules in this race. The 8 has a good running style for the race and I suppose it has some chance in a race like this. I'm passing this one. Good luck.

[Jim F.]

Two of my bets at Del (R5 and R9) were originally scheduled for turf but were switced to dirt. Decided to stick with MILES AHEAD since all his wins are on dirt and the distance/ weight factors are still in his favor. SEEKING SEATTLE is a no-go.

Does anyone know why they took the races off turf?

[kingfin66]

I know Colony Park from EmD. I think he is ill suited for the mile distance (not really a sprinter either). His trainer at EmD, Rick Terry, is one of the best up here. Personally, I think #3 Lil Casino has a good chance in this one. One thing that works in Colony Park and Lil Casino's favor is a couple of vulnerable favs. If you look closer at the horses coming out of that October 15 race you will see that they all ran an exceptional (for them) figure. I think you can throw that race out as it looks like those horses were swept along by a faster than normal pace. Good luck.

My play for this race: #3, Lil Casino $20 W-$20 P with imaginary money only.

[kingfin66]

I'm not sure why Del is TURF OFF. It looks to be a nice day there. Maybe the turf course is a little soggy or worn and they need to get it in better condition. It's hard to say. I generally pass races that get taken off turf. There are usually a lot of scratches.

[Jim F.]

In this gelding's last 10 races he has two wins and a place...ALL of which he did coming off a layoff. Too bad you're not betting real money, he could very well steal this thing at a price. He definitely looks to have a better chance than my pick.

MILES AHEAD paid $10.00 so the worst thing that can happen to me today is to break even.

[kingfin66]

Jim F you talked me into real money plays. There are some nice full field plays today at Turf Paradise:

1: no value - PASS

2: no value - short field turf - PASS

3: $1X box 3-6-9, $2 X 9/3-6, $5X 3-6/9, $10X box 3/6, $5DD 3-6/3; $50 bet

4: $20W 3, $20Pl 3; $40 bet

5: Mdn Cl - 1mi, only 1 of of these has gone 2 turns - PASS

6: No value - PASS

7: $20W 3, $2X 3/4-5-7-9, $4X box 4-5/3, $2X box 3-4-5; $56 bet

8: $20W 6, $2X box 6-8-9, $2X box 6/9, $2X 6-9/3-6-8-9-12, $2X 6-9/8, $2X 8/3-6-9-12; $64 bet

9: Turf w/4 first time turf - PASS

10: Too many form questions - PASS

I waited too long to bet race 3. I was able to place the 3-6-9 X box and the 3/6 box before I was locked out. This actually saved me losing tickets on the 9/3-6 and the 3-6/9 exacta's. Unfortunately, I lost a chance at the DD.

[kingfin66]

As noted in my original post with the pix for the day, I failed to get all wagers down for race 3. The 3/6 exacta hit for an $18.80 payout on a $2 ticket. $103.40 total payout, less $26 bet, net profit $77.40.

[kingfin66]

Lil Casino finished a distance 2nd to the winner and paid $5.20 to place. $52 paid out, less $40 bet = $12.00 profit.

[Jim F.]

I heard the calls for the 8th race and was rooting for Moscow who seemed to be positioned well for a move until the late going. He looked like a good pick. It's ironic that a Seattle horse took alll the marbles. I've never had much talent for the exotics. I almost always bet win and place although when I'm up against a strong favorite, a cold reverse exacta is the best course I think. After reviewing the 4th race (I must have been dozingwhen I first looked at it early this morning.) I liked your selection a lot but the chalk, a speedy invader from the Bay with a very quick work after his "get acquainted" race looked virtually unbeatable. Dick Mitchell calls it the "Exacta As Place Bet " and claims that when you like a longshot, bet him to come in behind the fave rather than a place bet. With a few minutes to post I decided that a 9-3 exacta was the way to go and it paid a very nice $26 vs. the $5 place price. I don't believe this kind of play is useful, however, unless the fave is truly legitiimate.

[kingfin66]

Nice job on that exacta. Moscow was well placed, but the 7, Majestic Willie, made a huge run on the rail and won by a lot. The same thing basically happened in the 4th. In the same section of his book, Mitchell describes the candidates for the place horse. I used the 8 (favorite) underneath in some of my exactas.