JustRalph
06-02-2011, 01:55 PM
http://seekingalpha.com/article/273033-housing-s-double-dip-is-the-government-to-blame
From the link above. I encourage you to read it.
"As explained here, the home buyer tax credit never made any sense in the first place. For every home buyer motivated to make a purchase by the credit, there are several more that would have made the purchase anyway. For this second category of home buyers, the tax credit is pure windfall. For the first category, the true marginal sales made possible by the credit are likely to be far fewer than those who likely would have purchased a home in the near future but decided to expedite the purchase process to capitalize on the credit. So even among the population who wouldn’t have otherwise purchased a home during the tax credit’s eligibility period, a large portion probably would have ended up buying later in 2010 or today.
Given this background, the basic arithmetic made clear that under the most optimistic estimate the program would give away $1.33 for every $1 that was used to stimulate a sale. Under the more probable estimate that accounts for accelerated sales, it was probably closer to $7.50 of pure windfall for every $1 of stimulus. According to IRS data, the total cost of the credit was nearly $24 billion. This means that in a time of record deficits the government essentially decided to handout between $13 billion and $21 billion."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/double-dip-recession-is-now-undeniable-2011-05-05
The Dollar has lost 15% in the last 6 months.
"Poison versus Salve: From the link above
But markets have the final say as to where the economy is headed, and investors would do well to listen. The 10-year note’s yield UST10Y +2.89% has moved down to 3.19% from 3.72% three months ago, and the 1-year T-bill is now just yielding just 0.17%. In confirmation of the slowing economy, oil prices have dropped $8 a barrel in a week, while copper prices HGN11 -0.37% have plummeted from $4.47 to $4.01 a pound in a month.
Recent economic data confirm the move lower in industrial commodities. Wednesday, we saw the ISM’s service-sector index drop to 52.8 from 57.3 in March. New orders plunged to 52.7, the lowest reading since December 2009, from 64.1 in the prior month. And the employment index dropped to 51.9 from 53.7 a month earlier. First-time jobless claims surged by 43,000 to 474,000 in the week ending April 30th, which was the highest reading since August. And the four-week moving average rose to 431,250 from 409,000. Read MarketWatch’s stories on the ISM index and on jobless claims."
http://www.indypendent.org/2011/06/02/the-coming-double-dip-recession/
"But the coming economic slowdown is not simply a result of the failure to create a sustained recovery of jobs in the U.S. for the past two years of so-called economic recovery. Nearly all economic indicators have been deteriorating since the beginning of 2011, even though policy makers and Wall St. investors have been diligently ignoring the fact.
Consumption growth, which represents 70% of the U.S. economy, early in 2011 fell by half compared to the previous period in 2010, from 4% to 2.2%. Real spending, adjusted for inflation, has been mostly flat so far in 2011. Rising gas prices have accounted for 60% of consumption gains in 2011. Escalating prices for food, health care, local taxes, and education costs have taken a further toll. The wealthiest 10% of consumer households now account for 60% of spending—buoyed by the past year of stock market gains that are now about to be reversed. High end retail stores, like Tiffany’s, rake in record sales while low end retailers like Wal-Mart struggle for sales. Apart from the wealthiest households, there has thus been no real sustained recovery of consumer spending in the US economy for the past two years. Retail sales have fallen the last three months in a row. And the lack of job growth, falling home values, rising core inflation (food & energy), and declining real incomes for the 95 million households earning less than $100,000 a year means a ‘flat’ at best scenario for consumer spending for 2011."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43247469
"One fund manager calls it a horror show, others are predicting the Federal Reserve will have to extend its unconventional measures and stocks across the world are falling heavily.
The data from the world’s largest economy has fallen so sharply that investors have been caught off guard, raising fears over a double-dip recession."
Read more at the link......This link paints a better picture. But the analyst are full of crap. They are laying it off on the Japan Earthquake and such.
You cannot continue to give away the store and infuse short term money into an economy that needs long term growth. Just my opine. But I am just another dumbass on the internet...........
This was predicted by many who were against Tarp and all the other giveaways.
From the link above. I encourage you to read it.
"As explained here, the home buyer tax credit never made any sense in the first place. For every home buyer motivated to make a purchase by the credit, there are several more that would have made the purchase anyway. For this second category of home buyers, the tax credit is pure windfall. For the first category, the true marginal sales made possible by the credit are likely to be far fewer than those who likely would have purchased a home in the near future but decided to expedite the purchase process to capitalize on the credit. So even among the population who wouldn’t have otherwise purchased a home during the tax credit’s eligibility period, a large portion probably would have ended up buying later in 2010 or today.
Given this background, the basic arithmetic made clear that under the most optimistic estimate the program would give away $1.33 for every $1 that was used to stimulate a sale. Under the more probable estimate that accounts for accelerated sales, it was probably closer to $7.50 of pure windfall for every $1 of stimulus. According to IRS data, the total cost of the credit was nearly $24 billion. This means that in a time of record deficits the government essentially decided to handout between $13 billion and $21 billion."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/double-dip-recession-is-now-undeniable-2011-05-05
The Dollar has lost 15% in the last 6 months.
"Poison versus Salve: From the link above
But markets have the final say as to where the economy is headed, and investors would do well to listen. The 10-year note’s yield UST10Y +2.89% has moved down to 3.19% from 3.72% three months ago, and the 1-year T-bill is now just yielding just 0.17%. In confirmation of the slowing economy, oil prices have dropped $8 a barrel in a week, while copper prices HGN11 -0.37% have plummeted from $4.47 to $4.01 a pound in a month.
Recent economic data confirm the move lower in industrial commodities. Wednesday, we saw the ISM’s service-sector index drop to 52.8 from 57.3 in March. New orders plunged to 52.7, the lowest reading since December 2009, from 64.1 in the prior month. And the employment index dropped to 51.9 from 53.7 a month earlier. First-time jobless claims surged by 43,000 to 474,000 in the week ending April 30th, which was the highest reading since August. And the four-week moving average rose to 431,250 from 409,000. Read MarketWatch’s stories on the ISM index and on jobless claims."
http://www.indypendent.org/2011/06/02/the-coming-double-dip-recession/
"But the coming economic slowdown is not simply a result of the failure to create a sustained recovery of jobs in the U.S. for the past two years of so-called economic recovery. Nearly all economic indicators have been deteriorating since the beginning of 2011, even though policy makers and Wall St. investors have been diligently ignoring the fact.
Consumption growth, which represents 70% of the U.S. economy, early in 2011 fell by half compared to the previous period in 2010, from 4% to 2.2%. Real spending, adjusted for inflation, has been mostly flat so far in 2011. Rising gas prices have accounted for 60% of consumption gains in 2011. Escalating prices for food, health care, local taxes, and education costs have taken a further toll. The wealthiest 10% of consumer households now account for 60% of spending—buoyed by the past year of stock market gains that are now about to be reversed. High end retail stores, like Tiffany’s, rake in record sales while low end retailers like Wal-Mart struggle for sales. Apart from the wealthiest households, there has thus been no real sustained recovery of consumer spending in the US economy for the past two years. Retail sales have fallen the last three months in a row. And the lack of job growth, falling home values, rising core inflation (food & energy), and declining real incomes for the 95 million households earning less than $100,000 a year means a ‘flat’ at best scenario for consumer spending for 2011."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43247469
"One fund manager calls it a horror show, others are predicting the Federal Reserve will have to extend its unconventional measures and stocks across the world are falling heavily.
The data from the world’s largest economy has fallen so sharply that investors have been caught off guard, raising fears over a double-dip recession."
Read more at the link......This link paints a better picture. But the analyst are full of crap. They are laying it off on the Japan Earthquake and such.
You cannot continue to give away the store and infuse short term money into an economy that needs long term growth. Just my opine. But I am just another dumbass on the internet...........
This was predicted by many who were against Tarp and all the other giveaways.