Time Of Year Handicapping

[DRIVEWAY]

Do you adjust your handicapping throughout the course of the year?

As the 2Yr olds come onto the scene, as the 3Yr olds mature, as the 4Yr olds show their stuff, as the seasons progress and the distances increase.

I find the December thru March period as the most difficult. April thru July is dominated by trainer experimentation and moves. August thru November is dominated by championship fever and class adjustments.

Really like August thru November.

Just curious how you see the years progression and what impact it has on your handicapping approaches?

[thaskalos]

Do you adjust your handicapping throughout the course of the year?

As the 2Yr olds come onto the scene, as the 3Yr olds mature, as the 4Yr olds show their stuff, as the seasons progress and the distances increase.

I find the December thru March period as the most difficult. April thru July is dominated by trainer experimentation and moves. August thru November is dominated by championship fever and class adjustments.

Really like August thru November.

Just curious how you see the years progression and what impact it has on your handicapping approaches?The only thing that has an impact on my handicapping is the coming of a new racing season; I wait to see how the horses adjust to the new surroundings.

The other things you mention in your post have no affect on me...

But that might be because I am a 3 year-old-and up, claiming and Allowance type of bettor...

[windoor]

I have noticed a trend in my own results for the past three years.

I believe a newly turned 4 year old is much different than a 4 1/2 year old.

I always do much better in the fall (Sept to December) than any time of the year.

Right now is the worst time of year for me and I am treading carefully.

Not as bad as last year, but win percent is down as usual.


Regards,

Windor

[DRIVEWAY]

The only thing that has an impact on my handicapping is the coming of a new racing season; I wait to see how the horses adjust to the new surroundings.

The other things you mention in your post have no affect on me...

But that might be because I am a 3 year-old-and up, claiming and Allowance type of bettor...

When handicapping 3YrUp does age become a major factor early in the year?

Is age treated differently in Allowance vs Claiming?

Thanks for your feedback.

[Robert Goren]

In the spring with the opening of northern turf courses, it can very profitable to know which trainers can spring long shot winners after their horse has taken the winter off. It is not same as the same trainer bringing back a horse coming back in july.

[GaryG]

Early in the year watch for newly turned 4yo that have only faced their own age group. They are usually overmatched against older horses unless they get a drop in class.

[Elliott Sidewater]

Yes, toward the end of the calendar year, 3 year olds start to get dropped in claiming price because they will soon be unprotected by age and have to run against older horses. Drops in class that I might consider suspicious in August and September are not generally negative for 3 year olds in November.

Second time of year consideration - in the fall and early winter when the 2 year olds stretch out to route distances. Usually I pass these races, but one could take the approach that it reopens hunting season for longshot players. If there's anyone out there who beats these races with favorites and second choices, I'd like to meet him. To me they've always been horse racing's equivalent of a minefield. I've stopped stepping in them because I got blown up too often.

[magwell]

Early in the year watch for newly turned 4yo that have only faced their own age group. They are usually overmatched against older horses unless they get a drop in class. I find this to be the opposite as they turn 4..... as that is usually when I find the "improving horse" especially at Gulfstream .....:cool:

[windoor]

Yes, toward the end of the calendar year, 3 year olds start to get dropped in claiming price because they will soon be unprotected by age and have to run against older horses. Drops in class that I might consider suspicious in August and September are not generally negative for 3 year olds in November.

Second time of year consideration - in the fall and early winter when the 2 year olds stretch out to route distances. Usually I pass these races, but one could take the approach that it reopens hunting season for longshot players. If there's anyone out there who beats these races with favorites and second choices, I'd like to meet him. To me they've always been horse racing's equivalent of a minefield. I've stopped stepping in them because I got blown up too often.

Makes good sense, and I will take note.
One of my "Long shot" plays has to do with horse dropping in for a tag. It most always does better in the fall. This could explain why.

I rarely play 2 year olds. They are like kids playing outside for the first time. Very unpredictable for "ME".

Regards,

Windoor

[classhandicapper]

I find that the issues change.

In the spring in NY there are a lot of layoffs, first time turfers, quality first time starters, horses that have been running on dirt heading back to turf, shippers from Gulfstream etc..

In the winter in NY you have to cope with occasional inside speed biases, sometimes trainers start dominating the standings off recent claims or simply by winning a lot of races because everything they send out is firing etc...

The quality of maiden and allowance races with the exact same designation shifts depending on the season.

[captainhot]

This is really an outstanding topic, and one I am looking forward to see others input.

I tend to do better in the Winter months, the change of locales (usually around the first of May) is usually bothersome to me.


One thing I do notice, front-runners tend to do better in the heat of the Summer months. Since, I usually look more for stalker/closer types at decent odds, I tend to give front-running favorites a closer look.

[DRIVEWAY]

This is really an outstanding topic, and one I am looking forward to see others input.

I tend to do better in the Winter months, the change of locales (usually around the first of May) is usually bothersome to me.


One thing I do notice, front-runners tend to do better in the heat of the Summer months. Since, I usually look more for stalker/closer types at decent odds, I tend to give front-running favorites a closer look.

I agree.

Those 90 degree/90% humidity days tend to be extremely friendly to speed. Those E6,E7,E8 style horses really flourish in this environment. Sometimes the rail is so GOLDEN, that the E type with the best inside post that gets to the rail first, is all thats needed to get his picture taken.

The winter months are tough to navigate for me. Congrats on your performance during this period. Do you focus on cetain types of races or warm weather vs. cold weather locals?

[martini]

As a newbie $2 player who is learning the game, this winter at Gulfstream was good for me (200+ plays, and a decent positive ROI). I've taken a beating at a lot of tracks with small fields, but for the most part at Gulfstream the fields were good, the horses largely quality, and the pools good. As we get deeper into the year, I hope to find a track that has that value (and lord knows it will not be in CA). I'm guessing what made Gulfstream playable was the fact that a lot of horsemen sent their horses south for the winter. The fields seemed pretty good.

I'm still looking for a track that is as playable as Gulfstream was this winter. Churchill Downs was pretty good last fall, but I've been disappointed with the field sizes of their current meet. Of course, there are still good plays on particular races at various tracks, but they are spot plays, primarily on weekends. That is okay, but I'd love to just focus on a particular track. I haven't seen good enough field sizes (i.e., potential value) consistently enough to let me play a track that way at this time of year, as a small player.

Maybe I need a bigger bankroll and just "bridge jump," but that doesn't seem fun. I like handicapping overlays and sniffing out good paying $1 exactas. Field size is the key for me. I hope this summer a track can offer a consistent, quality product for a small-time player like me.

I'm a new poster, but long-time lurker, so thanks to all of the experts here for this site. It advances the sport and the game (which I see as mutually exclusive). It is a great place.

[Valuist]

I love the grow up angle where a horse ran once or twice as a 2 year old in the summer, earning figures that may not appear solid but faced key fields. Then they are layed off until their 3 year old season. Its not uncommon to see horses who've run Beyers in the 50s and 60s to come out and throw figs in the 80s after they've turned 3.

[andicap]

In the spring with the opening of northern turf courses, it can very profitable to know which trainers can spring long shot winners after their horse has taken the winter off. It is not same as the same trainer bringing back a horse coming back in july.

This is an unbelievably smart post. So many computer analyses /data bases that show how trainers do after lay-offs fail to separate these two very distinct fields. Not all lay-offs are created equal. And it's not just true for these turf races.

Mack Miller used to be deadly with his 3 yr olds in the spring coming off layoffs, but his layoff stats the rest of the year were just average.

This is why I don't really look much at trainer stats any more. I'm not saying their unimportant; it's just that if you DO examine trainers you really have to go in depth.