Go For The Green and Best of ...

[cj]

Go For The Green (http://www.drf.com/misc/gftg.html)



Best of Thoroughbred Handicapping (http://www.drf.com/misc/both.html)

Both coming soon....

[JustRalph]

The Turf one sounds interesting........the bane of my capping, yet some of my best scores have come on the turf. It has taken me two years to even start to get close on some turf courses. I will read this one

[plainolebill]

I bought Heller's 'Turf Overlays' and thought it was pretty basic stuff and not too helpful. I'll wait for the reviews.

[chrisg]

Heller's "Turf Overlays" will go down as one of the worst books I've read. It was so bad, I could no longer keep it in the house.

I was surprised and disappointed by it. And that's why I'm not picking up the new one.

[Suff]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Go For The Green (http://www.drf.com/misc/gftg.html)


Both coming soon....

The Excerpt is from the Chapter "its all about the Dam"

Craig.. remember two weeks ago in the WARROOM Teeitup and I were discussing the POWER of turf from Mommy.... Discounting Daddys Grass Success and adjusting Mommys's results by upgrading turf success?

For firsters, first and 2nd turfers? Thats good info. ChrisG's response scares me... But I think most people would agree... The knowledge Gap widens when Horses move to grass... Less and less Horse players know anything about Turf. And to know turf means you have to Follow England and France. Because thats where Distance and surface pedigree really plays true to form.

[cj]

I think Tomlinson numbers are based strictly on the male members of the pedigree family. Many horses try turf, but the ones who pay big numbers first time these days have low Tomlinson's. Can't help but wonder if there is something on the female side I'm missing. I know Nick Hines had one of these at Santa Anita this week. Low rating, wins at a big number on the SA lawn. Anyone know anything about the mom here?

[cato]

WHat are good sources for information on female turf breeding?

Maiden Stats has good information..what else?

Cato

[Suff]

Originally posted by chrisg
Heller's "Turf Overlays" will go down as one of the worst books I've read. It was so bad, I could no longer keep it in the house.



FYI. Your entered the the GRADE 3 Nashua at belmont today.

#11 Luzzi up. 30-1

[Buddha]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
I think Tomlinson numbers are based strictly on the male members of the pedigree family. Many horses try turf, but the ones who pay big numbers first time these days have low Tomlinson's. Can't help but wonder if there is something on the female side I'm missing. I know Nick Hines had one of these at Santa Anita this week. Low rating, wins at a big number on the SA lawn. Anyone know anything about the mom here?

Dam wasn't anything special.

PASSION FOR POKER 1988 B F, by NATIVE ROYALTY 1967 -- HIGH POST 1980 by UPPER NILE 1974

Br-JOE B. HALL (KY)
Own-EMERALD MEADOWS R
Tr-SHULMAN SANFORD
Lifetime 31 3 6 2 $65,646 Turf 0 0 0 0 $0

Never tried the turf, but has the Raise A Native and Nijinsky lines in her. Never saw the PP for the horse you were talking about, but from the dam side, without going back a few generations, she doesnt show much.

[chrisg]

Suff, I can't speak for Heller's new book, but BEWARE, if you own any of his others, there is an excellent chance that SAME MATERIAL is going to show up in the new book.

I thought TURF OVERLAYS was worthless if you've been playing turf races for awhile. I found nothing NEW.

Also in "TO", Heller gives something like a topten guidelines to handicapping the grass better; one of the guidelines was to buy numerous copies of his book to put his kid through college. I'm not kidding.

I also track times of Graded Turf Routes from outside North America, so that when they show up here, I have something to go on.

I probably should have been milder in my review, but buyer beware.

[Suff]

Thanks. 3rd at 41-1. 11.60 to show

[ilhcp]

I forget exactly how the Tomlinson are calculated. But back before the racing form was publishing the numbers and I was doing them manually...I believe the ratings are roughly 2:1 ratio. 2 being the daddy and 1 being the mommy. I might be mistaken but it's been along time?

[chrisg]

"Thanks. 3rd at 41-1. 11.60 to show"

No Suff, THANK YOU; I made the play also. May have never known that one was out there if you hadn't mentioned it.

I would have played the Lukas colt too, but he scratched!

[kenwoodallpromos]

Show in a stakes? LOL!!

[Suff]

show anywhere. I'm just givin the news. I did'nt make the news...I'm reportin it. Let it go.====

[chrisg]

So what's the deal, no one around here ever made a profit betting show?

You've got to be kidding me. When you get better payoffs, you take what you get.

Or was ken saying something else?

[Suff]

Nothing here. I did a lil ML thing for the BC contest. I tweaked Ken because he made 5 bets with His Thousand. 200 to show on the ML fav in each race. This happens everytime I do one. One guy takes it a lil to serious. I did'nt intend for it to spill over into other threads.
A horse named Chris G was entered. I told you about it and how he ran and finished. Ken thought I bet it to show or was advocating betting it to show...............either way. done deal

[kenwoodallpromos]

LOL means Laugh Out Loud! All in fun! Suff is one of the nicest guys in this group!!

[cj]

Did some research today...best to buy both of these books at Amazon, much cheaper than DRF. B & N has better prices too, but not as good as Amazon. Not available yet, only downfall, but I'm in no hurry.

Craig

[Rick]

The best way to use breeding these days is to bet the worst ratings. Looks like a good research project I'll have to get busy on.

[sam i am]

Reading Chapter 3 about the dam I have a question. He writes a paragraph about how successful a broodmare Toussaud is and how she had 4 grade 1 and 5 graded stakes winners from just six foals, yet he didn't give her * worth special consideration. I wonder what it takes to make that list ????

Does anyone know how I can get a contact him?

Thanks,
David

[VetScratch]

Very interesting thread...

Because Burt Bacharach never started Afternoon Deelites on the grass, few prepotent turf pedigrees were booked to him until after his first crops surprisingly produced outstanding stats on the grass. The nicking specialists who had previewed Afternoon Deelites' pedigree (when his retirement to stud was announced) made no suggestions about turf prepotency.

In recent years, many broodmare owners have suddenly become willing to pay for extensive turf pedigree research because turf pedigrees at auctions now attract a lot of American bidders in mid-to-high price ranges... beneath the bidding wars among oil sheiks, European aristocrats, and super-rich Asians.

I know a few respected bloodstock agents and have used several nicking research specialists. When they search for undervalued turf potential outside the topmost echelon of fashionable and pricey turf lines, there is a growing consensus that the sire and broodmare-sire are "roughly" equal in pedigree significance.

Many give equal significance to the sire and broodmare-sire if the broodmare was a turf winner or has produced one or more turf winners; otherwise, they may weight the sire at 60% and broodmare-sire at 40%. Of course, they can look at everything in minute detail within both the top and bottom sides of a potential pedigree matchup.

Handicappers generally have to rely on summary statistics, and some information sources may not supply enough statistical categories, especially for the broodmare-sire.

I work with statistics that are available in my Past Performance data to evaluate pedigrees for 1st-time-starters and 1st-time-turf-starters.SIRE PRODUCE:
Overall:
- number of foals (would prefer number of foals that started)
- win percentage for total number of starts
- percent of 1st-time-starters that won
- AWD (average winning distance)
- SPI (sire production index)
- percent of 2YO-runners that won
Mud-only:
- number of mud starts
- win percentage for mud starts
Turf-only:
- number of turf starts
- win percentage for turf starts
- percent of 1st-time-turf-starters that won
BROODMARE PRODUCE:
Overall:
- number of foals to start
- number of winners
- number of stakes winners
- percent of 2YO-runners that won
- DPI (dam production index) (useful if winners = turf winners)
Turf-only:
- broodmare's lifetime turf race record and earnings
- number of foals that won on turf
BROODMARE-SIRE PRODUCE:
Overall:
- number of foals (would prefer number of foals that started)
- win percentage for total number of starts
- percent of 1st-time-starters that won
- AWD (average winning distance)
- SPI (sire production index)
Mud-only:
- number of mud starts
- win percentage for mud starts
Turf-only:
- number of turf starts
- win percentage for turf starts
- percent of 1st-time-turf-starters that wonWith respect to turf potential, I recommend attaching much more significance to statistics for the broodmare and broodmare-sire than many other handicappers may recommend. When I spot one of the pre-eminent turf sires on top, I emphasize that turf super-sire; otherwise, I tend to give equal weight to both the top and bottom pedigrees... or even emphasize the bottom if the broodmare-sire is/was a turf super-sire.