Met Mile

[PaceAdvantage]

Let's get some discussion going on this one...surprised nobody has brought it up...first, my value line:

:8: Haynesfield (9/5)
:11: Tizway (7/1)
:1: Soaring Empire (8/1)
:5: Caixa Eletronica (13/1)

It appears to me Haynesfield is sitting on one of his monster races. His figures show a clear in and out pattern, and he jumped up to win the Suburban Handicap after running a debut figure back in 2010 that exactly matches the 2011 debut figure he ran last time out. I think he's even better going a flat mile and think he might be a decent overlay today off his loss last time out.

There is PLENTY of speed in today's Met Mile though, and that could be Haynesfield's undoing, although he is certainly not the type that needs the lead in order to win.

Soaring Empire has the running style and the talent to greatly benefit from a hot pace up front. He has run well off of layoffs in the past, so the 2+ month break doesn't concern me all that much. I also think after Haynesfield, this horse represents my best chance at an overlay.

[Ocala Mike]

I like two closers, the :1: and the Pletcher outlier, the :7:


Ocala Mike

[OFFandRUNNING10]

I like two closers, the :1: and the Pletcher outlier, the :7:


Ocala Mike

I also think Ibboyee looks great in this race. Closed great on derby day after a poor break. He should get something to run at again today. Got no respect going in the Churchill Downs Stakes (lost by a closing 3/4 lengths in a 6 1/2fur. race to capt candy man who went off at 5-1 that day) and is being overlooked I believe here again at an even better distance for him. At 15/1 I think he makes a great play

[PaceAdvantage]

I had Ibboyee at Churchill last out (I still feel the pain of that finish). But I am still stuck on my belief that the track that day was aiding closers, and the figure he got for that race, even bias aided, isn't anything special here.

[PhantomOnTour]

Good betting race.
Agree that Haynesfield is sitting on a nice one. Chasing that fast pace in his last oughta have him primed today 2nd off the layoff.
I will toss the :2: :3: :4: :6: :7: :9: from win consideration. Believe Ibboyee and Aikenite are not of this ilk and both benefited from the CD track on Derby day. Aikenite is getting really good lately, but these boys are tough.
Been on Caixa Eletronica for all 3 of his wins this year (and also missed the heartbreaker ex in the GP SprCh) so I can't see myself getting off now. Impressed with the way he backed up his GP form with a good NY performance...not all Pletcher runners do that.
Tackleberry...over the top and away from Florida or just hated the sloppy goo at CT last out? First lasix today and he's your speed. Believe he will outgun Rodman. Just too solid to leave out out of the mix. Four nice works since last, but none at Bel.
Tizway must be used as well...loves the track and distance, Gr2 winner here, 3rd off layoff, working nicely.

I like:
:5: :8: :11:

[Shelby]

I made a thread down in the selections section before I saw PA already had one up here.

PA feel free to delete mine!


I will repeat my post here:

I like the Met Mile race. Lots of good horses, IMO.

:3::5::8::10: superfecta box for the Met.

I also played the Pick 6 *nervous* might need a cocktail to calm down lol.

6. :4::5::6:
7. :2::7:
8. :1::4:
9. :3::6:
10. :5::8::10:
11. :4::5::7:

edited to add that I really like Tackleberry here. I think he hated the slop and the bullring at CT last out.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm all over Soaring Empire.I think he's sitting on a big race.As Mike said,ideal pace scenario.Freshened up with 2 solid works,one at 5f.The exotics look wide open.I don't know who I prefer in the exacta.Looks like a win/place bet.

Overall this looks like an exciting race.Nice rendition:ThmbUp:

[nijinski]

Great chance for a Asmussen , Pletcher exacta.
Throwing out Tackleberry .
Yawanna Twist looks good in the exotics.

[Relwob Owner]

Love Tizway in here over Soaring Empire and Haynesfield.....good luck to all

[Mineshaft]

Aikenite............

[slew101]

Soaring Empire on top with Tizway and Caixa Eletronica. Very good betting race.

[lamboguy]

i like TACKLEBERRY because he has a good outside position and should be able to cut over infront of HAYNESFIELD if HAYNESFIELD doesn't send. if by some chance he gets infront of CAXIA ELECTRONICA before the turn he can win. its a tough race and i am running very bad today so i wouldn't pay attention to one word i say today.

[JimG]

My contenders are :8: :11: :5: :10: , in that order. Will be looking for win value amongst that group and perhaps a saver exacta as well.

Jim

[precocity]

Aikenite............
500 across red bording time!!!!!!!! :cool:

[OFFandRUNNING10]

:11: :8: :10: :7:

[precocity]

500 across red bording time!!!!!!!! :cool:
I ment 500 to wp on the 4$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[precocity]

exta box 4-8-11
no red bording :D

[Tom]

Looks like a field with their best races behind them except for the :5:
Take the one that showed something this lifetime. Too many potential reputation-money burners in here.


A couple might come back to good form, but unless they can do it over 6-1 I have no interest. I see this as a good race to pass unless the odds really surprise me, but I won't hold my breath.

[gm10]

Caixa Eletronica looks better than ever, and he's my bet at 13/1. He's not even run in a grade 1 before, but this isn't really a grade 1 field, anyway.

1. Caixa Eletronica
2. Tizway
3. Ibboyee

[PaceAdvantage]

13/1 was my own betting line. He'll be nowhere near that in reality...

[Tom]

I'll take 8-1.
:5:

No interest in the rest, other than Kensei as a LS possibility at over 20-1.
If he hold there, I might put in a box with the :5:

[riskman]

Now that the tote board is up I will go for
5-6-8-11.

[PICSIX]

#4 Aikenite if I can get 5/1 or better :ThmbUp:

[JustRalph]

Like :5: Caixa here too...... but hate the jock.

The :1: should be rolling late....... and the pace may make it for him.



:2: :3: :9: are overlays...... gotta be on a ticket somewhere ?

[gm10]

13/1 was my own betting line. He'll be nowhere near that in reality...

Good point. He's my bet at 8/1 (is 11.5/1 on Betfair).

[GatetoWire]

Really like Tizway here, especially turning back after the CT Classic. Bond should have him really strong.

Haynesfield and Caixa Electronica 2nd and 3rd

[douglasw32]

After reading the post on Supers I tossed my hat in this way.

.10 cent Superfecta wagers

A = Your top ITM$ Pick-The horse you think could be 1st,2nd or 3rd.
B= Who could beat A ?
C=If A runs 3rd and B won, who got in the middle of them ?
D/E= Contenders but do not see them in the exacta.
6 remaining horses that could run 4th.


Ticket1= A / BC / BCDE / BCDE-FGHIJK
Ticket2= B / A / CDE / CDE-FGHIJK
Ticket3= B / C / A / DE-FGHIJK

A=8
_____
B=5
C=11
_____
D=1
E=7
_____
F=9
G=2
H=3
I=4
J=10
K= 6
=====

BEL #10 $0.10 Superfecta
8,WT,5,11,WT,1,5,7,11,WT,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,10,11 $ 4.80

BEL #10 $0.10 Superfecta
5,WT,11,WT,8,WT,1,2,3,4,6,7,9,10 $ 0.80

BEL #10 $0.10 Superfecta
5,WT,8,WT,1,7,11,WT,1,2,4,6,7,9,10,11 $ 2.10

================================================== =====
$ 7.70 Invested.

[cj's dad]

need the 2-5-8 to close out a P3;
will pays are 401-143-84

[woodtoo]

:1::5::7::11:ex/tri box

[PaceAdvantage]

7/2 is quite the gift on Haynesfield in my opinion...

[JustRalph]

bet the :5:

and the others under and few boxes exacta

[Tom]

Fast times....didn't like the winner a bit, nor the place horse.
The :5: was probably a bad bet - his last race was too good.

[PaceAdvantage]

Oooooofffffff...... :lol:

I've been stinking up the joint all day. Good thing this was the only race I posted... :eek:

[judd]

Love Tizway in here over Soaring Empire and Haynesfield.....good luck to all

nice call on tiz :ThmbUp:

[JustRalph]

Really like Tizway here, especially turning back after the CT Classic. Bond should have him really strong.

Haynesfield and Caixa Electronica 2nd and 3rd

nice call..........

[CincyHorseplayer]

Burnt cheddar!!

Who had Rodman on their exacta ticket?

[PaceAdvantage]

Congrats to all who had the winner...

[GatetoWire]

Does this mean I have to change my avatar from Haynesfield to Tizway??

[gm10]

Holy moly what a superfecta payout >15000!. Nearly had it, but not quite expecting Rodman to be second. Haynesfield not hitting the super skewed the payoffs, I guess.

Good work by those who picked Tizway.

[JustRalph]

one week from the Penthouse to the Outhouse!! :lol: :lol:

[Relwob Owner]

nice call on tiz :ThmbUp:


Thanks Judd....now, I can spend the night trying to win at the Mountain with you:)

[JustRalph]

Burnt cheddar!!

Who had Rodman on their exacta ticket?

I had rodman on my exacta ticks.......but not the winner........ :bang:

[CincyHorseplayer]

I had rodman on my exacta ticks.......but not the winner........ :bang:

Man I bet to win/place on Soaring Empire and the exacta.I don't think I even saw him during the race at all!!!Did you see him?Tizway seemed a logical contender.But so did most of the field.

[Light]

The thing I didn't like about Haynesfield is that he shows he fires fresh off a layoff last 3 times, but his most recent layoff race was a dud,so I threw him out. Something not right with that horse.

[PhantomOnTour]

I'm running 1-2-3 turning for home with the :5: :8: :11: but had Rodman nowhere.
Six year old keeps on keepin on after 14 month layoff...good job by Hushion.
In fact, the entire tri was comprised of 6yr olds....when is the last time three 6yr olds or older ran 1-2-3 in a Gr1 race on dirt???

[PaceAdvantage]

The thing I didn't like about Haynesfield is that he shows he fires fresh off a layoff last 3 times, but his most recent layoff race was a dud,so I threw him out. Something not right with that horse.You had his 2011 comeback number worse than his comeback race in June of 2010?

[Robert Fischer]

disgusting
liked the 3 2nd guessed and passed

:bang:

[toussaud]

seriousl question

when has Steve A EVER kept a horse in tip top form for more than 1 year?

[Light]

You had his 2011 comeback number worse than his comeback race in June of 2010?

Yes. According to Bris he got a 104 SR in June 2010 and a 98 in his last.

[Grits]

seriousl question

when has Steve A EVER kept a horse in tip top form for more than 1 year?

I believe he was called "Curlin."

[toussaud]

I believe he was called "Curlin."
top form.

curlin was not in top form in 2008. he was still damn freaking good, but he wasn't in top form.

[PhantomOnTour]

Didn't Curlin win HOY in 2008?

[Relwob Owner]

top form.

curlin was not in top form in 2008. he was still damn freaking good, but he wasn't in top form.


5 for 5 on dirt with 4 Grade 1's, second in a G1 on the turf and 4th in a G1 on synthetics......seems like top form to me.

[Saratoga_Mike]

top form.

curlin was not in top form in 2008. he was still damn freaking good, but he wasn't in top form.

I used to wonder why I disagreed with you 90% of the time. Now, with this post, I realize you just post crap to get reactions.

[Cardus]

I used to wonder why I disagreed with you 90% of the time. Now, with this post, I realize [fill-in-the-blank] just post crap to get reactions.

If you don't mind.

[Valuist]

Burnt cheddar!!

Who had Rodman on their exacta ticket?

I had it. Was mostly a negative play against Haynesfield and Aikenite, both of whom I hated. I used Rodman and Ibboyee underneath the other logical runners (Tizway, Tackleberry, Caixa Electronica and Soaring Empire). I had Rodman at 15-1 so it was just value fishing. Not a giant opinion but in stakes races, and especially THIS one, you fish for value and hope to snag something.

[cj]

5 for 5 on dirt with 4 Grade 1's, second in a G1 on the turf and 4th in a G1 on synthetics......seems like top form to me.

It is tricky...he wasn't beating much after Dubai and his figures came back pretty light. He ran well, but probably a few lengths below his best from the previous season. Some of it had to do with pace...he faced both very slow and very fast paces, but I don't think that tells the whole story.

His Dubai World Cup and previous 3 were all at 117+. Even the Haskell before that was a 113 in a losing effort. After Dubai, he finished his last five with a highest figure of 111.

[exiles]

Yes. According to Bris he got a 104 SR in June 2010 and a 98 in his last.



Using BRIS speed ratings to measure thoroughbred performance is like taking a 3 inch knife to a machine gun fight.:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

[Relwob Owner]

It is tricky...he wasn't beating much after Dubai and his figures came back pretty light. He ran well, but probably a few lengths below his best from the previous season. Some of it had to do with pace...he faced both very slow and very fast paces, but I don't think that tells the whole story.

His Dubai World Cup and previous 3 were all at 117+. Even the Haskell before that was a 113 in a losing effort. After Dubai, he finished his last five with a highest figure of 111.



Like you say-tough to tell....I am not a huge believer in the theory that Dubai always hurts horses afterwards but him coming back a few lengths slower than after running there could be a result of going there.....tough to look at his year and say he wasnt in top form IMO.

[Relwob Owner]

[/b]



Using BRIS speed ratings to measure thoroughbred performance is like taking a 3 inch knife to a machine gun fight.:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:


The Beyer numbers seem to tell the same story....99 for the June 13, 2010 comeback race and 94 for the April 30, 2011 comeback race.

You could make the case that the 2010 combacker being easier was a factor, as it was an optional claimer, as opposed to a Grade 3 this year

[exiles]

The Beyer numbers seem to tell the same story....99 for the June 13, 2010 comeback race and 94 for the April 30, 2011 comeback race.

You could make the case that the 2010 combacker being easier was a factor, as it was an optional claimer, as opposed to a Grade 3 this year

The RAGS which IMO are the best performance ratings, also have the 2011 come back race slower, 8, compared to 4, for 2010, but in the majority of the time the BRIS#s are worthless.

[cj]

Don't you guys think his getting caught in a fast pace last out is some of the reason for his "decline"? I had his return last year as a 96 pace, 99 speed, while his return this year was a 111 pace, 95 speed.

[Relwob Owner]

Don't you guys think his getting caught in a fast pace last out is some of the reason for his "decline"? I had his return last year as a 96 pace, 99 speed, while his return this year was a 111 pace, 95 speed.


I only commented as far as the pure Beyers went...... Your pace numbers seem to back up the difference in the two return races and after looking at it, I think the return race this year was clearly tougher than the one last June and that could have had something to do with it as well.

[classhandicapper]

I did an analysis on the race for GradeOneRacing. I didn't like Haynesfield and recommended keying against him and Tackleberry. I liked Tizway and Soaring Empire best, but thought the race was very open.

Haynesfield has a spotty record. IMO he tends to do his best running when he gets things his own way and either controls or forces a pace he is comfortable with. The Met looked like it was going to competitive early and IMO he didn't look anywhere near 100% in his first start off a layoff. The horse he was chasing early (Christmas for Liam) was a limited ALW winner (albeit a good one) but Haynesfield barely beat him. IMO a reasonably fit Grade 1 horse should have had little trouble with CFL and been game late even if he got caught at the wire because of the pace.

Tackleberry made his reputation with a few soft trips at GP and looked less fresh than some of the others that have been gearing up for this race.

I think Haynesfield might do better when they stretch out to 9F where he could possibly find a softer pace.