equibase=beyer=brisnet Speed figs

[llegend39]

Doesnt anyone know where i can find the value of what equals what in terms what a beyer is equal to a brisnet fig that is equal to the equibase #"s? Thanks

[PICSIX]

Try doing a search on the site. I've seen it on here somewhere in the past. CJ would be the one to talk to. :ThmbUp:

[PICSIX]

This may help.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=58801&highlight=Beyer+equivalent

[PICSIX]

http://www.pacefigures.com/articles/racingpost.html

Found it, this is from CJ.

[Capper Al]

Thanks for both post #3 and #4. They were a good review.

The problem with translating speed figures between vendors is not in coming up with a comparable formula or chart. Yes, one vendor's 88 will equal another's 100 on average. The problem is in the variants. I saw a study once were they compared speed figs by actual races. There wasn't any universal translation. If we could find a universal translation between vendors then every vendors top speed figure would be the same horse. It's not.

What was interesting in the study was that the speed figures jumped all around. One vendor's top fig could be another vendor's bottom fig, etc. But at the end of the study, they all did pretty much same hitting about 28% or so for top pick last race. The lesson one can take away from this is that if we don't use a mainstream speed figure our payoffs should be better since we'll hit at about the same rate but the public will bet down the popular figures such as BRIS or Beyer.

[llegend39]

Thanks for all the replies heres something I found:

http://www.chef-de-race.com/pfs/comparative_speed_figs.htm

[PICSIX]

The lesson one can take away from this is that if we don't use a mainstream speed figure our payoffs should be better since we'll hit at about the same rate but the public will bet down the popular figures such as BRIS or Beyer.

I totally agree, but this is more difficult (for me) than it would appear at face value! :confused:

[Tom]

Beyers:

http://www.angelfire.com/la2/wahoo/AB.SPRC.html

BRIS - I think a beaten length is equal to 10/distance, so far 6 furlongs, 10/6 = 1.67

As far as what a fifth or tenth of time equals, I don't know. Anytime I try to calculate it, it is different. Last night, by chance, I was trying again. I got 1 BRIS point = 2.0 at 1m16, and at 6 furlongs, it was 1.37, or 1.22, depending on what track I used. Enough for me to stop wasting time and forget about them.

[Capper Al]

All this talk about 1/5 of a sec or 1/6 or 1/7 has little impact. Handicapping is about putting a guess together for a selection. Rarely will 1/5 vs 1/7 make the difference. Having said that, I do use a sliding figure like BRIS. I just don't think a capper should be concerned about it until he has exhausted tweaking all other factors of analysis. The return for your effort could be put to better use elsewhere.

[cj]

All this talk about 1/5 of a sec or 1/6 or 1/7 has little impact. Handicapping is about putting a guess together for a selection. Rarely will 1/5 vs 1/7 make the difference. Having said that, I do use a sliding figure like BRIS. I just don't think a capper should be concerned about it until he has exhausted tweaking all other factors of analysis. The return for your effort could be put to better use elsewhere.

I hear this a lot, but my research shows using the better estimates does make a difference, and it is notable. If you bet $300,000 a year ($100 a day for 300 days, hardly a stretch)and using the more correct estimate improves your ROI by 2%, that is a $6,000 difference in your bottom line.

[Capper Al]

I hear this a lot, but my research shows using the better estimates does make a difference, and it is notable. If you bet $300,000 a year ($100 a day for 300 days, hardly a stretch)and using the more correct estimate improves your ROI by 2%, that is a $6,000 difference in your bottom line.

I don't disagree. But most Punters get caught on tweaking their Speed figures or Pace figures while there are many good commercial products (such as yours from what I hear) that they can use. Meanwhile, their handicapping suffers from not studying other more hidden factors such as Form or Elimination rules. They will loss 20% on their ROI while spending days and weeks or even months going down the well worn path of speed for a 2% gain that they can find commercially available.

[crestridge]

Probably the most important component is trend. What is the trend of the horse/horses. No single number is totally helpful, maybe then trend of numbers is more useful.

[Tom]

...most Punters get caught on tweaking their Speed figures or Pace figures while there are many good commercial products (such as yours from what I hear) that they can use. Meanwhile, their handicapping suffers from not studying other more hidden factors such as Form or Elimination rules.

How do you know this?

[Sea Biscuit]

I hear this a lot, but my research shows using the better estimates does make a difference, and it is notable. If you bet $300,000 a year ($100 a day for 300 days, hardly a stretch)and using the more correct estimate improves your ROI by 2%, that is a $6,000 difference in your bottom line.

A $100 a day for 300 days would be $30,000 and not $300,000.

Just thought I would point out the calculation error.

[cj]

A $100 a day for 300 days would be $30,000 and not $300,000.

Just thought I would point out the calculation error.

Yep, thanks. The principle is still the same. Even $600 is nothing to turn down.

[ronsmac]

Being someone who's calculated figures since I was 13, I readily admit they're the most over rated factor in racing. Honestly they're not worth the time and effort. Quite frankly variants can change every race let alone every card due to wind and track maintenance, and especially run up to the actual start. Speed figures are like cigarettes, very hard to break once you've been doing them for so long. If one has to use figures , concentrate more on pace and race shape for front runners and adjusted final 1/4's for closers.

[Tom]

Must be you used the wrong figures.

[Capper Al]

How do you know this?

It's just an observation of forum discussions and noticing so much of handicapping literature deals with speed. I can't say for sure if that's what you are getting at.

[gm10]

I don't disagree. But most Punters get caught on tweaking their Speed figures or Pace figures while there are many good commercial products (such as yours from what I hear) that they can use. Meanwhile, their handicapping suffers from not studying other more hidden factors such as Form or Elimination rules. They will loss 20% on their ROI while spending days and weeks or even months going down the well worn path of speed for a 2% gain that they can find commercially available.

That is definitely a fair point.

[classhandicapper]

If you lay all the best available speed figures side by side and handicap, you'll pick a different horse or at a minimum make a different odds line in race after race. That should be a red flag to everyone about forming strong opinions based on small differences in speed figures.

I think the trick is to know when (and why) the other guys have it wrong so you can get better value on the figures you are using. They all make mistakes. It's unavoidable. So you have to focus on finding other people's mistakes and avoiding your own.

[Tom]

If you lay all the best available speed figures side by side and handicap, you'll pick a different horse or at a minimum make a different odds line in race after race. That should be a red flag to everyone about forming strong opinions based on small differences in speed figures.



Yes, you might likely land on a horse that the figs would clearly have pointed out as a loser.;)