How Important is Weight in Handicapping?

[Sparky13]

Saturday at Thistledown, Race 7 was The Michael F. Rowland Memorial Handicap run at 6 furlongs. 9 horses entered with 8 different weights being carried. Catlaunch -126, (the favorite because he has won 35 times), Raise the Reward and Busha' - 116, Drummond Island 115, Ramblin Mike 112, Fason 113, Heisman Star 111, National Champs 109 and Beau Mac 108. Catlaunch won and paid $2.40, Beau Mac second for a $40.00 Exacta and Ramblin Mike third for a Trifecta in the $500.00 range. I have never seen a desparity in weights in today's racing as these. Maybe years ago when the great horses used to carry 126-130 pounds. What is the importance of weight when you handicap a race?

[windoor]

For two and three year olds, I give the amount of weight carried some consideration.

Weight shift, is more important to me, as it can give a clue to class and trainer intent for today.

Regards,

Windoor

[Capper Al]

Everything else being equal, weigth should be considered.

[andymays]

Sometimes it makes a big difference and sometimes not so much. When you get to a mile or longer sometimes you will see two horses coming out of the same race who ran within a couple of lengths of one another. One horse might be picking up a couple of pounds while the other could be dropping 3 or 4lbs depending on the conditions. A five or six pound weight swing at that distance or longer is an important factor.

Allegedly in my opinion of course. :D

[macguy]

I would say how the weight is carried is also a big deal.

Back when weight was more of an issue in Handicap races, trainers would often prefer a higher "live weight" on the jockeys then having the horse carry 5 or 10 pounds of "dead weight" (lead bars) under the saddle.

[xfile]

I found it important if only 1 horse in a race is dropping 5 pounds or more from its previous race.

[v j stauffer]

In my case I usually tire badly after two tracks or about 130 pp's.

[Hanover1]

When I hear "Tell the fat guy in front to hurry up" it is important to me......

[classhandicapper]

I'm not saying weight is a non factor, but I find that if I'm even considering weight, it's usually time to either turn the page to the next race or look at the tote board and let the odds dictate the decision.

[therussmeister]

Everything else being equal, weigth should be considered.
But everything else is never equal, so I never look at weight.

[Capper Al]

But everything else is never equal, so I never look at weight.

You're right. Weight does matter a point or two on speed, but speed isn't an exact science. A point or two is within Speed's margin of error. That's why it can be overlooked.

[PhantomOnTour]

What about bug riders?
Currently, Ryan Curatolo is getting a 7lb apprentice weight allowance in NY and is riding his teets off. Maybe he's just a good jock, we'll see when he loses the weight break....but a frontrunner carrying 7lbs less under Curatolo has got to have some advantage.

[xfile]

I found it important if only 1 horse in a race is dropping 5 pounds or more from its previous race.
Perfect example today:
3rd race - Monmouth Park - May 29, 2011

2 Poetic Pal $75.20 25.60 9.20
3 Encomium 5.80 4.40
1 Holy Cat 4.40

$2 Daily Double 4-2 202.00
$2 Exacta 2-3 427.60
$1 Superfecta 2-3-1-6 1,164.50
$1 Trifecta 2-3-1 653.00

[Dahoss9698]

Perfect example today:
3rd race - Monmouth Park - May 29, 2011

2 Poetic Pal $75.20 25.60 9.20
3 Encomium 5.80 4.40
1 Holy Cat 4.40

$2 Daily Double 4-2 202.00
$2 Exacta 2-3 427.60
$1 Superfecta 2-3-1-6 1,164.50
$1 Trifecta 2-3-1 653.00

Seriously? You're going to try and explain that winner because the horse was carrying 6 pounds less than last time?

At the very least it was a clever redboard, so congrats.

[Beachbabe]

Perfect example today:
3rd race - Monmouth Park - May 29, 2011

2 Poetic Pal $75.20 25.60 9.20
3 Encomium 5.80 4.40
1 Holy Cat 4.40

$2 Daily Double 4-2 202.00
$2 Exacta 2-3 427.60
$1 Superfecta 2-3-1-6 1,164.50
$1 Trifecta 2-3-1 653.00


That horse went from a race where he carried 118 lbs to 112 lbs today.

Last year he shed weight, going from a race carrying 116 lbs to his next race where he carried 111 lbs.....and he lost by 20 lengths

[Dan Montilion]

I never consider weight as a factor. When handicapping I don't even see the weight column if you will. Only exception is when a trainer can enter for weight off and then uses a rider that goes over weight.

[Ian Meyers]

Most quantitative handicappers will tell you that you get a better 'fit' on race variants / speed figure projections when factoring in weight. Ragozin and Thorograph use 0.2 pts per lb carried (from 115 scale) though my research made it closer to 0.15 pts (which really is negligible). Using 0.2 that would equate to about 0.6 Beyer pts per lb which I believe is close to what Beyer got in his later works when he did the research.

IMHO, it is absolutely a factor but minor differences in weight carried are usually swamped by pace, trip, etc.

[bettheoverlay]

Unless my memory is incorrect, in the 70s and 80s there were a slew of red-hot apprentices, you could hardly find a track where an apprentice wasn't a leader or at least near the top. You rarely see that anymore. The last two that come to mind were Bejarano and Leparoux at Turfway.

If trainers believe weight is important how come they so rarely use apprentices? I have studied weight and weight changes in my database and have yet to find any statistical significance, which is not to say there is none.

[usedtolovetvg]

An old-timer once told me to walk home from the grocery store carrying two bags of groceries that were not that heavy. The first block seemed to be very easy but after the second block I was beginning to feel the strain. by the third block it was damn heavy. The next day I carried only one bag, the trip was much easy and the strain wasn't nearly as bad. Seems only logical that the further you go the more the extra weight, or lack there of, would make a difference.

[xfile]

Seriously? You're going to try and explain that winner because the horse was carrying 6 pounds less than last time?

At the very least it was a clever redboard, so congrats.
The angle is - that is the ONLY horse in the race dropping 5 pounds or more from previous (most recent race, last time out, etc) start. That is 1 of my 36 Proven Angles from the e-book. I've been following that angle for close to 10 years. You get those big bombers. That horse had a lot of other things like Best Late Pace, Best Total Class, Best Competitive Purse Level, Positive Trainer Move. If you look at my original post I explain the angle clearly. That was posted before that particular race was run. Today, 10:21 AM "I found it important if only 1 horse in a race is dropping 5 pounds or more from its previous race."

[Johnny V]

I rarely consider weight as a handicapping factor. Virtually every modern handicapping book has mentioned that weight for the most part is not an important handicapping factor; yet trainers seem to go to great lengths for any weight off so they must consider it important. Why the disparity on this between knowledgeable handicappers and good trainers?

[Dahoss9698]

The angle is - that is the ONLY horse in the race dropping 5 pounds or more from previous (most recent race, last time out, etc) start. That is 1 of my 36 Proven Angles from the e-book. I've been following that angle for close to 10 years. You get those big bombers. That horse had a lot of other things like Best Late Pace, Best Total Class, Best Competitive Purse Level, Positive Trainer Move. If you look at my original post I explain the angle clearly. That was posted before that particular race was run. Today, 10:21 AM "I found it important if only 1 horse in a race is dropping 5 pounds or more from its previous race."

Next time tell us the horse before the race....it's always a lot easier after the fact.

[therussmeister]

An old-timer once told me to walk home from the grocery store carrying two bags of groceries that were not that heavy. The first block seemed to be very easy but after the second block I was beginning to feel the strain. by the third block it was damn heavy. The next day I carried only one bag, the trip was much easy and the strain wasn't nearly as bad. Seems only logical that the further you go the more the extra weight, or lack there of, would make a difference.
The horses don't carry the jockeys in their arms. This is a very important difference. Try the same experiment again with a good backpack, there won't be that much difference, and I suspect even less difference if you walked on four feet, particularly if you regularly carry weight and scale the weight difference to your own body weight. In your example you approximately doubled the weight.

[duncan04]

Next time tell us the horse before the race....it's always a lot easier after the fact.

If you visit his website its all redboarding

[xfile]

I see it's time for some wisdom from the old man:

http://fullcardreports.com/images208/2dogs-cap.gif

[Dahoss9698]

Actually I think most do get it. Next time one of these horses comes up, tell people about it BEFORE the race and let's see how it works out BEFORE the race.

[nearco]

Saturday at Thistledown, Race 7 was The Michael F. Rowland Memorial Handicap run at 6 furlongs. 9 horses entered with 8 different weights being carried. Catlaunch -126, (the favorite because he has won 35 times), Raise the Reward and Busha' - 116, Drummond Island 115, Ramblin Mike 112, Fason 113, Heisman Star 111, National Champs 109 and Beau Mac 108. Catlaunch won and paid $2.40, Beau Mac second for a $40.00 Exacta and Ramblin Mike third for a Trifecta in the $500.00 range. I have never seen a desparity in weights in today's racing as these. Maybe years ago when the great horses used to carry 126-130 pounds.

The 3rd race at Leicester today... Lean Machine 138, Join the Glass 133, Berinsdale 119, Chippy 119, Manager Mick 119, Jane's Legacy 114.
http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=531830&r_date=2011-05-30

1st race at Ballinrobe, 19 runners going 12f, carrying from 140 to 119lbs.
http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=533702&r_date=2011-05-30

Take a look at this result from yesterday at Nottingham, horse carrying 100lbs beats a horse carrying 133lbs by a neck. http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=531289&r_date=2011-05-29&popup=yes
I'd say the handicapper got that one right.

[Hanover1]

I know we don't add any to make them go faster.....
I recall when I was a valet one summer at a Pompano QH meet decades ago. The amount of weights I handled every race had to have meant something to someone.....

[CincyHorseplayer]

Weight is only important when she's crushing your hips!:cool:

[Robert Goren]

I hear a # is worth so many parts of a length. I don't handicap that way. I want to know how much it increases or decreases a horse's chances of winning. I haven't seen anything to make me it effects it much.

[Hanover1]

The races I focus on, every horse carries equal weight, so it's zero factor for me. I was swayed to betting Rags To Riches at Belmont based in large part to weight given however, and that is as I recall the only time I ever cashed a ticket based on this issue.

[RaceBookJoe]

When I learned to handicap, weight was still one of those factors that was taught, so even though i really dont "use" it, I still find myself looking at it sometimes...weird haha. Back in the 70's when i started the 3 things about weight that have stuck in my mind are these :

1. I learned that in sprints, 5 pounds made a difference...3 for routes. Again, I dont focus on that now...but if I need a tiebreaker, i guess that would be it. Learned that from Lou Holloway.

2. The highest weight horse was supposedly the best horse in the race. Forgot where i learned that one, most likely LGH again or mayte Taulbot.

3. If a 3yr-old is carrying more weight than 4yr-olds...he doesnt have a chance. I think i picked that one up from Davidowitz. rbj

[Capper Al]

Let's face it that there is some merit to consider weight. This is not a primary or a secondary factor, but if you have the time or the program to adjust your speed figures it might help. Understand that with your adjustments that you're are swimming up stream. Weight adjustments are so insignificant that horses with added weight, because they are better horses, win more than their fair share.

[Cratos]

Saturday at Thistledown, Race 7 was The Michael F. Rowland Memorial Handicap run at 6 furlongs. 9 horses entered with 8 different weights being carried. Catlaunch -126, (the favorite because he has won 35 times), Raise the Reward and Busha' - 116, Drummond Island 115, Ramblin Mike 112, Fason 113, Heisman Star 111, National Champs 109 and Beau Mac 108. Catlaunch won and paid $2.40, Beau Mac second for a $40.00 Exacta and Ramblin Mike third for a Trifecta in the $500.00 range. I have never seen a desparity in weights in today's racing as these. Maybe years ago when the great horses used to carry 126-130 pounds. What is the importance of weight when you handicap a race?

Weight is a big factor when class is considered, but not much of a factor when load is considered because most horses can tote considerable more weight than they are assigned in a given race.

[funnsss1]

With all the tracks in north america doing away with scales the weight a horse carries is not a factor because you dont know if your being told the real weights and with no checks and balances ill bet trainers and owners fudge the weights they do everything else to cheat so im sure horses carry whatever they can get away with

[xfile]

After a decade and a half of daily research here is what I found to be accurate:

The weight issue with handicappers has been a big debate over the last several decades.

What we have found to be accurate is that weight is less of a factor the higher the class level of the race and the racing circuit itself.

Therefore weight off can become a very potent angle in lower class races, in lower class circuits at all distances. Maiden claiming races, NW2L, NW3L, cheap claiming races, condition claiming races, etc

It is not uncommon for a horse who has shown little or not much positive lately to all of a sudden "spring to life" at overlay odds of 20-1, 30-1, 40-1, 50-1, etc once qualifying for this angle.

Often these qualifying horse are picked towards the middle or near the bottom in order of selection which is by power rating. This is because of their poor recent form. Don't let that fool you.

Some shrewd trainers (usually the lower the purse, the higher the chance this occurs) know how to play the game and are avid bettors themselves.

These types of trainers wait for the right spot to "pop" then get the weight off with a condition allowance, age allowance, bug boy allowance or a combination of everything!

Definitely take close note what and if these qualifiers have any of the profit icons and/or qualify for another angle in this manual (Ex; H/JS, Hot Jockey, J/S, etc).

However it is not mandatory to have anything else besides that "magic" lone weight off icon and big odds offerings.

[xfile]

Actually I think most do get it. Next time one of these horses comes up, tell people about it BEFORE the race and let's see how it works out BEFORE the race.
Somebody started a thread on weight. At approx 10:30 am I posted my very specific angle. A few hours later Monmouth had a $75 winner that exactly met my angle criteria. You want me to bet the horse for you too?

[cj]

Somebody started a thread on weight. At approx 10:30 am I posted my very specific angle. A few hours later Monmouth had a $75 winner that exactly met my angle criteria. You want me to bet the horse for you too?

Are you pretending that is a winning angle all by itself? Do I need to post the horrific of ROI of horses dropping 5 pounds or more, or do you want to admit it is a loser?

[gm10]

I hear a # is worth so many parts of a length. I don't handicap that way. I want to know how much it increases or decreases a horse's chances of winning. I haven't seen anything to make me it effects it much.

From years of research, I can tell you that the British rule-of-thumb is only about 60% effective as intended.

The rule is (Distance * Pounds/Length) = 15.

In reality, over 5F, 3 pounds make up only 60% of one length.

From years of experience, however, I know that this is just an average. The effect of weight on a particular horse in a particular race is not a linear function of weight, but a very irregular function of many variables.
For example, in a dirt sprint with a field full of good early/bad late types, 5lbs could make all the difference.

Different circumstances, different effect => hard to quantify (just as well).

[xfile]

Are you pretending that is a winning angle all by itself? Do I need to post the horrific of ROI of horses dropping 5 pounds or more, or do you want to admit it is a loser?
Listen chooch. You don't even know the angle. The angle is not about horses dropping 5 pounds. Read the thread for my accurate description of the angle.

[cj]

I read the angle. The only horse dropping 5+ pounds...should I run the stats or do you want to just pretend it is profitable?

[Exotic1]

Listen chooch. You don't even know the angle. The angle is not about horses dropping 5 pounds. Read the thread for my accurate description of the angle.

You posted an angle. What is the ROI for playing all horses that meet your selection criteria - take any meaningful population such as Year to Date by circuit or any other measurable demographic? Again, you posted the angle - so own up to publishing the results.

[gm10]

I read the angle. The only horse dropping 5+ pounds...should I run the stats or do you want to just pretend it is profitable?

Skip the argy bargy and please run the stats.

[xfile]

You posted an angle. What is the ROI for playing all horses that meet your selection criteria - take any meaningful population such as Year to Date by circuit or any other measurable demographic? Again, you posted the angle - so own up to publishing the results.
The angle I posted showed a $75 winner literally a few hours after I posted it. Not good enough for those who want everything spoon fed to them I guess. Gidrul.

[cj]

Skip the argy bargy and please run the stats.

I'd rather he answer. You and I don't have much to say to each other. I've done well ignoring you, perhaps you should do the same.

[cj]

The angle I posted showed a $75 winner literally a few hours after I posted it. Not good enough for those who want everything spoon fed to them I guess. Gidrul.

Sure, and I can find that betting the slowest horse in the race on any figures one cares to use will find some very high priced winners. The ROI, however, will be dreadful.

[xfile]

I read the angle. The only horse dropping 5+ pounds...should I run the stats or do you want to just pretend it is profitable?
You post an angle and have a $75 winner on the same day. Go ahead it's still early.

[xfile]

Sure, and I can find that betting the slowest horse in the race on any figures one cares to use will find some very high priced winners. The ROI, however, will be dreadful.
How do you figure him the slowest horse in the race? He won the race stunad. In your world the slowest horse in the race wins? Interesting.

[xfile]

You post an angle and have a $75 winner on the same day. Go ahead it's still early.
I'm waiting for your angle that will have a $75 winner within a few hours. It's 10am so it's still early.

[cj]

How do you figure him the slowest horse in the race? He won the race stunad. In your world the slowest horse in the race wins? Interesting.

I didn't say that horse was the slowest in the race. I was just saying one can pick any factor in the world come up with some long prices, and some will win. It doesn't make a factor profitable, or even able to beat the track takeout. Yours does neither.

[gm10]

I'd rather he answer. You and I don't have much to say to each other. I've done well ignoring you, perhaps you should do the same.


Do you actually have the results or are you just looking to pick a fight? I'm still interested in them, for now.

[xfile]

I didn't say that horse was the slowest in the race. I was just saying one can pick any factor in the world come up with some long prices, and some will win.Ok pick one and post it here now and we will see.....Waiting....:sleeping:

[cj]

Do you actually have the results or are you just looking to pick a fight? I'm still interested in them, for now.

I'm looking to avoid a fight, not start one. Check your PMs.

[xfile]

Without looking at who is running today. I posted mine on the fly replying to this thread and I did not look at the entries for the day at that point. Hurry up and post one on the fly like I did.....Still waiting.....:sleeping:

[cj]

Without looking at who is running today. I posted mine on the fly replying to this thread and I did not look at the entries for the day at that point. Hurry up and post one on the fly like I did.....Still waiting.....:sleeping:

I'll post one once you give us the ROI of your angle.

[xfile]

I'm looking to avoid a fight, not start one. Check your PMs.
Forget the PM's. You started the discussion here on the board not in a PM. Finish it here. Prove what you can do...Still waiting for your angle......:sleeping:

[cj]

Without looking at who is running today. I posted mine on the fly replying to this thread and I did not look at the entries for the day at that point. Hurry up and post one on the fly like I did.....Still waiting.....:sleeping:

Ok, bet all horses that go off at 32 to 1 or above for the rest of the week.

[BIG HIT]

I find as you all know high wht are better class horse.But you all look at it as hard to carry.Which it does but the hardest thing on horse would be balance on turn and maybe to some degree change leads.
After all horse is about 1500 pounds so just about any is not major problem.But balance can be big difference.That what have herd over years.
Just a opinon nothing pick 100% winners anyway

[xfile]

I'll post one once you give us the ROI of your angle.
I didn't ask anyone to do this. I gave it out freely. Repeat what I did and THEN I'll say you can back up your words....STILL waiting.....:sleeping::sleeping:

[Robert Fischer]

...These types of trainers wait for the right spot to "pop" then get the weight off with a condition allowance, age allowance, bug boy allowance or a combination of everything...
redboards aside

-there are some subsets where specific trainers may signal their intentions by getting weight off.

It's not really my game to use angles for trainer intent, but it's something you still try and play along with.

You can drive yourself crazy with some of these claimers that "pop" when they are up in odds and get a "workout" when a public contender.

There's a million and one variables, and sometimes you see weight allowances combined with such a pattern, or maybe you think the exotic payout was kind of light on the pop days, and all of a sudden said trainer is a "crook" (or at least the horse/payout gets a PA thread... )...

You have to be very careful not to invent realities and trainer conspiracies, especially without an accurate insight into a lot of the basic variables that could and probably do explain the vast majority of stop or pop horse patterns.

I think for the sake of convenience (and sanity) a lot of players just look several races back to see if the horse can run on his good days, regardless of "reason". "He won 3 back at this class , etc..."

[xfile]

Ok, bet all horses that go off at 32 to 1 or above for the rest of the week.
Repeat what I did. Post an angle and have a $75 winner within a few hours....waiting STILL.....:sleeping::sleeping::sleeping:

[cj]

I didn't ask anyone to do this. I gave it out freely. Repeat what I did and THEN I'll say you can back up your words....STILL waiting.....:sleeping::sleeping:

I posted an angle that is just as profitable as yours.

[xfile]

I posted an angle that is just as profitable as yours.
Post a specific (NOT RANDOM) angle and have a $75 winner within a few hours. My angle was specific......STILL waiting :sleeping::sleeping::sleeping::sleeping:

[cj]

Post a specific (NOT RANDOM) angle and have a $75 winner within a few hours. My angle was specific......STILL waiting :sleeping::sleeping::sleeping::sleeping:

That is specific. Post your results. Since there aren't many horses running today, unlike when you posted, it is fair to offer a longer timeline.

[cj]

Here is an example...bet all horses that haven't run in a year or more.

Oh, great, there was an $86.40 winner at Golden Gate yesterday. Must be a great angle.

Unfortunately, the game is never that easy. Betting those horses blindly will lose you about 48 cents on the dollar looking at the last 11505 I have in my database. How does your angle do long term?

[xfile]

That is specific. Post your results. Since there aren't many horses running today, unlike when you posted, it is fair to offer a longer timeline.
No it is not specific. Telling me to bet all horses over a certain odds for a week is random at best. Repeat what I did. Post an exact angle and have a $75 winner a few hours later. Still waiting. 39 minutes so far :sleeping::sleeping::sleeping::sleeping::sleeping:

[cj]

No it is not specific. Telling me to bet all horses over a certain odds for a week is random at best. Repeat what I did. Post an exact angle and have a $75 winner a few hours later. Still waiting. 39 minutes so far :sleeping::sleeping::sleeping::sleeping::sleeping:

You are hilarious...first, racing doesn't start for hours. Second, there are about 25% of the horses running today that run on the weekend when you picked. In any case, my criteria is just as random as yours is.

[xfile]

You are hilarious...first, racing doesn't start for hours. Second, there are about 25% of the horses running today that run on the weekend when you picked. In any case, my criteria is just as random as yours is.Excuses. That is all I see from you. You think posting a bunch of database stats is what horseplayers want? No - they want something instant. So - post an EXACT and SPECIFIC angle (No random odds BS) that will hit later today for $75 like I did. 53 minutes and still waiting :sleeping::sleeping::sleeping::sleeping::sleeping:

[Saratoga_Mike]

Excuses. That is all I see from you. You think posting a bunch of database stats is what horseplayers want? No - they want something instant. So - post an EXACT and SPECIFIC angle (No random odds BS) that will hit later today for $75 like I did. 53 minutes and still waiting :sleeping::sleeping::sleeping::sleeping::sleeping:

Have you read the book "Fooled by Randomness?" I didn't think so.

[PaceAdvantage]

Excuses. That is all I see from you. You think posting a bunch of database stats is what horseplayers want? No - they want something instant. So - post an EXACT and SPECIFIC angle (No random odds BS) that will hit later today for $75 like I did. 53 minutes and still waiting :sleeping::sleeping::sleeping::sleeping::sleeping: Wow.

I will say this though. Watching your 'pitch' in this thread just might have been the very best thing that ever happened to any soul who was thinking of trying your service.

And for that I thank you.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Wow.

I will say this though. Watching your 'pitch' in this thread just might have been the very best thing that ever happened to any soul who was thinking of trying your service.

And for that I thank you.

He sellls this stuff? Surely you jest.

[xfile]

Wow.

I will say this though. Watching your 'pitch' in this thread just might have been the very best thing that ever happened to any soul who was thinking of trying your service.

And for that I thank you.
Someone started a thread on weight. I weighed in (no pun intended) with my experience on the subject. A few hours later there was a $75 winner at Monmouth. All this angles stuff I give out for FREE on the website. My e-book is there for all who want to view it. Some of the angles like this one on weight does not require my daily reports to take advantage of. Somebody started talking chit and I challenged him simply to do what I did and I will believe he could back up his words. He could not repeat what I did.

[xfile]

He sellls this stuff? Surely you jest.
The stuff in reference to this thread I give out for FREE on the website. The angle that hit a $75 winner literally hours after I posted it does not even need my daily reports to take advantage of. Any pp will work.

[Saratoga_Mike]

The stuff in reference to this thread I give out for FREE on the website. The angle that hit a $75 winner literally hours after I posted it does not even need my daily reports to take advantage of. Any pp will work.

It was pure luck. Over the long term, it's a losing angle - that's why CJ's statistics matter.

[nearco]

After all horse is about 1500 pounds

Maybe in Banei (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpvvAxrEE0E) racing.
The racing fit Thoroughbred is about 900-1100lbs.

[Cratos]

From years of research, I can tell you that the British rule-of-thumb is only about 60% effective as intended.

The rule is (Distance * Pounds/Length) = 15.

In reality, over 5F, 3 pounds make up only 60% of one length.

From years of experience, however, I know that this is just an average. The effect of weight on a particular horse in a particular race is not a linear function of weight, but a very irregular function of many variables.
For example, in a dirt sprint with a field full of good early/bad late types, 5lbs could make all the difference.

Different circumstances, different effect => hard to quantify (just as well).
A horse toting weight is a simple physics problem if all of the variables are known.

A horse is just an object moving through space powered by some force; I realize that there are other factors that can affect the horse's movement, but I prefer to keep it simple.

Force is defined as mass times acceleration and in this case mass becomes the horse's body weight plus its assigned weight. Force is the inherent ability of the horse to tote "X amount" of weight and the resultant, acceleration is just the second deriative of the horse's velocity.

Having said all of this and excluding environmental conditions (can be a significant impact) I use 1,084 pounds plus the horse's assigned weight and a beta factor for race distance change with any environmental influences added in to get a weight impact number in 100's of a second.

This is not tedious or laborious because it is all calculated in the model in a few seconds.

[xfile]

It was pure luck. Over the long term, it's a losing angle - that's why CJ's statistics matter.
Ah pure luck - ok. This was not the first time on this forum I posted an angle and it hit right away. I must be the luckiest guy in the world. CJ does not have accurate stats on my angle. First of all he doesn't even know the complete criteria. All of my stuff I am referring to in this thread can be accessed for free on the website. Good luck in your handicapping. I think I'll go somewhere and "get lucky".

[cj]

Ah pure luck - ok. This was not the first time on this forum I posted an angle and it hit right away. I must be the luckiest guy in the world. CJ does not have accurate stats on my angle. First of all he doesn't even know the complete criteria. All of my stuff I am referring to in this thread can be accessed for free on the website. Good luck in your handicapping. I think I'll go somewhere and "get lucky".

How could I not know? You posted it three times...only horse in a race dropping five pounds or more. Anybody with a database can run the query in minutes and post results...but I want them from you. I want you to admit you have no idea if it is a profitable angle long term or not, then I'll post the numbers.

[gm10]

A horse toting weight is a simple physics problem if all of the variables are known.

A horse is just an object moving through space powered by some force; I realize that there are other factors that can affect the horse's movement, but I prefer to keep it simple.

Force is defined as mass times acceleration and in this case mass becomes the horse's body weight plus its assigned weight. Force is the inherent ability of the horse to tote "X amount" of weight and the resultant, acceleration is just the second deriative of the horse's velocity.

Having said all of this and excluding environmental conditions (can be a significant impact) I use 1,084 pounds plus the horse's assigned weight and a beta factor for race distance change with any environmental influences added in to get a weight impact number in 100's of a second.

This is not tedious or laborious because it is all calculated in the model in a few seconds.

The problem lies in the first sentence 'if all of the variables are known'. The complexities of a horse race are such that we can hardly ever assume that a majority of the variables are known, let alone all of them.

Even it we did know all variables, it's still not that straightforward. Horse races are often decided during short intervals when horses are not running at a constant speed (ie. initial and final furlong).

[Cratos]

The problem lies in the first sentence 'if all of the variables are known'. The complexities of a horse race are such that we can hardly ever assume that a majority of the variables are known, let alone all of them.

Even it we did know all variables, it's still not that straightforward. Horse races are often decided during short intervals when horses are not running at a constant speed (ie. initial and final furlong).

In all due respect, we are not talking about exact values when we speak of horseracing data and in this case an estimate is good enough and you know being good in math yourself that partial deriatives will solve the speed change problem

[Saratoga_Mike]

In all due respect, we are not talking about exact values when we speak of horseracing data and in this case an estimate is good enough and you know being good in math yourself that partial deriatives will solve the speed change problem

This coming from you is rich.

[gm10]

In all due respect, we are not talking about exact values when we speak of horseracing data and in this case an estimate is good enough and you know being good in math yourself that partial deriatives will solve the speed change problem

That would be possible with Trakus data, but I'm not sure how doable it is with the other tracks.

Don't get me wrong, I agree with what you say, but I don't think it adequately explains the effect of weight, and I don't think it ever could even with better data, as some of its effects seem more related to chaos theory than conventional physics. You know the theory ... a butterfly can create a hurricane in another part of the world by flapping its wings ... a few extra lbs can make a horse lose the fight for the rail, the horse behind it may get steadied and the horse behind that may clip heels. When we see this, we'd never think of weight as the underlying reason, but I don't think you'd be thinking of butterflies in the middle of a hurricane either.
Anyway.

[Producer]

Ah pure luck - ok. This was not the first time on this forum I posted an angle and it hit right away. I must be the luckiest guy in the world. CJ does not have accurate stats on my angle. First of all he doesn't even know the complete criteria. All of my stuff I am referring to in this thread can be accessed for free on the website. Good luck in your handicapping. I think I'll go somewhere and "get lucky".


Oh, come on...when will the non sense stop. This horse won because the front runners stagered home through the final furlong and he was the only horse making up ANY ground at all late. Weight had nothing to do with it. The 3rd race was the slowest 6f race on the day by well over a second. The maiden claiming for 3yo fillies a few races later, for example, had a slower 5F split and ended up being run over a second faster. What a joke.

[Cratos]

That would be possible with Trakus data, but I'm not sure how doable it is with the other tracks.

Don't get me wrong, I agree with what you say, but I don't think it adequately explains the effect of weight, and I don't think it ever could even with better data, as some of its effects seem more related to chaos theory than conventional physics. You know the theory ... a butterfly can create a hurricane in another part of the world by flapping its wings ... a few extra lbs can make a horse lose the fight for the rail, the horse behind it may get steadied and the horse behind that may clip heels. When we see this, we'd never think of weight as the underlying reason, but I don't think you'd be thinking of butterflies in the middle of a hurricane either.
Anyway.

I get your theoretical example of the “butterfly,” but that is not what is happening in horseracing and if Phil Bull is never remembered for anything else it should be his understanding of weight a horse tote and the class which it completes. Weight is huge in horseracing if you understand that concept.

However you must also understand how to read race conditions because a WFA or WFG condition can lead you to the wrong conclusion about weight.

Additionally, The Royal Society (I believe that is the correct name or it could be the Royal Academy) in London did a scientific study of horses and weight toted and it revealed some fascinating results. I have a copy somewhere in my archives and if I can locate it I will email you a copy.

[Exotic1]

Oh, come on...when will the non sense stop. This horse won because the front runners stagered home through the final furlong and he was the only horse making up ANY ground at all late. Weight had nothing to do with it. The 3rd race was the slowest 6f race on the day by well over a second. The maiden claiming for 3yo fillies a few races later, for example, had a slower 5F split and ended up being run over a second faster. What a joke.

I think the nonsense would stop or at least slow down if he wasn't allowed to include a hyperlink in his signature. Don't see why paying advertisers wouldn't object.

[PaceAdvantage]

I think the nonsense would stop or at least slow down if he wasn't allowed to include a hyperlink in his signature. Don't see why paying advertisers wouldn't object.Everyone is allowed one hyperlink in their signature. Non-paying advertisers are NOT allowed to discuss their products or services.

I will admit I have been lax on occasion in enforcing this rule. Hopefully, those days are coming to an end.

[Bruddah]

Just my Humble Two Cents on Weight: It has been important enough over the years that practically all races are written using weight as an equalizer. With this in mind practically all trainers use weight as a major consideration in placing their stock. Some trainers have scratched their runners due to being disadvantaged by too much weight.

If weight isn't a factor to be considered, then it has been given too much credence by the Equine Industry. Track managment, horsemen, bettors and fans all can't have been wrong for all these years. Ignore it at your own Handicapping risk. :ThmbUp:

[gm10]

I get your theoretical example of the “butterfly,” but that is not what is happening in horseracing and if Phil Bull is never remembered for anything else it should be his understanding of weight a horse tote and the class which it completes. Weight is huge in horseracing if you understand that concept.

However you must also understand how to read race conditions because a WFA or WFG condition can lead you to the wrong conclusion about weight.

Additionally, The Royal Society (I believe that is the correct name or it could be the Royal Academy) in London did a scientific study of horses and weight toted and it revealed some fascinating results. I have a copy somewhere in my archives and if I can locate it I will email you a copy.

I am not in denial about the impact of weight, just that its effect isn't always easy to imagine, visualize, measure, etc.

Look forward to reading that paper.

[Edward DeVere]

Question for all the "fun with numbers" weight handicappers:

If Xtra Heat ran two time trials at six furlongs, one with 120 pounds and one with 125, and Secretariat did the same, would you expect their final times to be affected in precisely the same proportion?

[dkithore]

I ran into this link a week or so ago re. impact of weight on a horse performance that I found interesting. (In non-us handicapping world"weight" carries a lot of weight).


http://www.eccnet.com/fourwinds/horse/weighthorse2.htm

Dk

[Exotic1]

I apologize if I was too over the top in my response and I probably was a bit.

All I wanted to know, can you share your test results proving ROI over any significant sample? That's it. If the answer is no, it's no.

[Stevecsd]

I consider low weight to be a serious factor when I handicap. What I look for is a 5-7# low (or more) weight horse in the top 4 of my race list. Having a good form also helps. For me these horses only pop up about once or twice in a day's races.

It should be easy to prove or disprove with your own handicapping factors. Do the handicapping the way you do it. Then mark any horses in the top 4 that are low weight. And see what your ROI is on those horses.

I do see good horses or low odds with the highest weight win. However, from my experience, I usually avoid those. I think they lose too often. My feeling is, why bet on a horse that has a disadvantage compared to the other horses in the race.

[cj]

I apologize if I was too over the top in my response and I probably was a bit.

All I wanted to know, can you share your test results proving ROI over any significant sample? That's it. If the answer is no, it's no.

He probably can't, but if he could, he wouldn't.

[Dahoss9698]

Wow...

[cj]

Wow...

You aren't really surprised, are you?

[Dahoss9698]

You aren't really surprised, are you?

I've seen a lot of meltdowns....but it takes a special person to post the picture he did.

[duncan04]

So happy that pic got taken down!!

[Saratoga_Mike]

Just my Humble Two Cents on Weight: It has been important enough over the years that practically all races are written using weight as an equalizer. With this in mind practically all trainers use weight as a major consideration in placing their stock. Some trainers have scratched their runners due to being disadvantaged by too much weight.

If weight isn't a factor to be considered, then it has been given too much credence by the Equine Industry. Track managment, horsemen, bettors and fans all can't have been wrong for all these years. Ignore it at your own Handicapping risk. :ThmbUp:

I think that statement is completely wrong. The majority of races are maidens, allowance or claimers. So I don't even see how you could say it's a major consideration. It just isn't for most trainers.

[PaceAdvantage]

Classic blowup...instead of addressing the obvious, he deflects with garbage...

[Tom]

You post an angle and have a $75 winner on the same day. Go ahead it's still early.

How many losers that same day?

[Bruddah]

I think that statement is completely wrong. The majority of races are maidens, allowance or claimers. So I don't even see how you could say it's a major consideration. It just isn't for most trainers.

Within the categories you mentioned, weight conditions are written, are they not? Therefore, the trainer considers the conditions of the race which specify weight.