Summer Assault on Hollywood/Del Mar

[positive4th]

This thread is more about personal accountability than about "being right". I'm more able to pick winners in California than anywhere else, so I'm focusing all efforts there for the summer (G1 Weekends are an exception), and posting results here to keep an accurate record. For each card from Memorial Day through Labor Day weekends, I'll be posting 4 or 5 Win picks for the day, broken into:

++ A 4-Unit "Play of the Day"

++ 2 2-Unit "Solid Winners"

++ 2 1-Unit "Longshot Hunches" (6-1 ML or greater)

On a $2 Unit, this would be $20 per card, so you can do the math for your appropriate level. For me, the main goal is to just keep track and see how my handicapping improves on one circuit over a few months for a very modest budget. No sense in running all over creation if you can't excel in a small part of it. The next post will be some of my picks for Friday evening's Hollywood Card.

[positive4th]

27 May 2011

++ 4-Unit "Play of the Day"

Race 2
:1: Twodollarstowin

4 things I like about this horse:

1) Recency: Already 2 wins over this track and surface in May vs. similar. Her last start was a route over this track just 6 days ago, where she pulled away in the stretch.

2) J/T Combo: Mitchell's barn would not likely drop her in to darken form just a few days after winning. Talamo is 3 for 3 with this horse in '11 and will be looking for a big day before his suspension over the weekend.

3) Horse for this course: 9 for 11 ITM @ Hollywood Park, with 4 wins, all over the synthetic surface. When she shows up here, its legit.

4) Relative lack of opposition: If its not her, its the :8: Appealing Afare. O'Neill's 4YO has won twice over this track, but has also taken some massive drops in class this year and still not found the winner's circle. If tonight is her night, I guess I lose.

[positive4th]

27 May 2011

++ 2 Unit "Solid Winner"

Race 7
:5: Courtside

2 Things I like about this Horse:

1) J/T Combo: This 3yo is 2 for 4 over the synthetics, and both wins were 1-turn sprints with Sadler/Rosario connections. Tonight? More of the same.

2) Recent work pattern: After a curious start on Turf here against better (finishing 5th), Courtside fired a good 4f work over this surface on May 16th and switches back to the main track. He broke his maiden at this level at DMR in Sept '10, and my guess is he'll fire strong again tonight.

[positive4th]

27 May 2011

++ 2 Unit "Solid Winner"

Race 3
:6: Warren's Blossom

2 Things I Like About This Horse:

1) Recent Works: A horse coming off a 4mo layoff after finishing 6th in stakes company would normally be discouraging, but she fired a nice bullet here @ (race distance) 6f on May 17th. This company seems much more fitting for her, and the 1st time on turf will be interesting to watch.

2) Resiliency down the stretch: Check out her last 3 wins, all over synthetics @ 6f. In each case, she has built or maintained her lead at the last post, so a speed scenario where she fades late seems unlikely. Pedroza has been on the lead vs. similar with the horse before, and prevailed several times over this distance.

[Goofyscott]

Nice writeups. Hope you nail em!!!

[GaryG]

27 May 2011

++ 2 Unit "Solid Winner"

Race 7
:5: Courtside

2 Things I like about this Horse:

1) J/T Combo: This 3yo is 2 for 4 over the synthetics, and both wins were 1-turn sprints with Sadler/Rosario connections. Tonight? More of the same.

2) Recent work pattern: After a curious start on Turf here against better (finishing 5th), Courtside fired a good 4f work over this surface on May 16th and switches back to the main track. He broke his maiden at this level at DMR in Sept '10, and my guess is he'll fire strong again tonight.I am definitely with you on this one. In that grass race last time he broke a step slow, was sent up to contest the pace and held the lead after 5F. That was a fast and destructive pace over a course that has strongly favored closers. Class drop and surface switch set him to win it. I will play him at 2-1 or more.

[positive4th]

27 May 2011

1 Unit "Longshot Hunch"

Race 6
:8: Turn on the Pumps

Remember the qualifications were to find a tepid ML horse that may be overlooked. This horse fits the bill nicely. What seems to be a disinterested 10th place finish in MSW company in March, and a jockey switch (albeit positive), would normally point to a horse that's not ready. But look closely at the Works pattern since that start. Each time has been solid, each workout has been a furlong longer than the last, and the intervals have been regular, leading right up to today's distance of one mile. Carla Gaines is no dummy, winning at a 33% clip this meet. Here's to hoping she's got a mild surprise in her hand tonight.

[Exotic1]

Thanks for the work and writeups.

[positive4th]

27 May 2011

1 Unit "Longshot Hunch"

Race 8
:6: Amoracchius

If this race gets past the :4: , and there's no guarantee that it will, its VERY wide open after him, and this horse has as good a chance as any. He was bumped badly out of the gate by the :5: in his debut, still rallying to run a credible 4th in his first outing with Talamo aboard. Since JT is driving the likely favorite in this spot, Bejarano is a pretty solid 2nd choice of rider. That switch by itself tells me that trainer Mike Puype is well meaning with this horse tonight. We'll see.

[positive4th]

27 May 2011

++ 4-Unit "Play of the Day"

Race 2
:1: Twodollarstowin

4 things I like about this horse:

1) Recency: Already 2 wins over this track and surface in May vs. similar. Her last start was a route over this track just 6 days ago, where she pulled away in the stretch.

2) J/T Combo: Mitchell's barn would not likely drop her in to darken form just a few days after winning. Talamo is 3 for 3 with this horse in '11 and will be looking for a big day before his suspension over the weekend.

3) Horse for this course: 9 for 11 ITM @ Hollywood Park, with 4 wins, all over the synthetic surface. When she shows up here, its legit.

4) Relative lack of opposition: If its not her, its the :8: Appealing Afare. O'Neill's 4YO has won twice over this track, but has also taken some massive drops in class this year and still not found the winner's circle. If tonight is her night, I guess I lose.

Well, that was a cardiac ride from the rail and around the field, but she's the first 3-time winner at the meet, and our Play of the Day cashed in for what looks like a fair $4.20 return. Nice start.

[positive4th]

27 May 2011

++ 2 Unit "Solid Winner"

Race 3
:6: Warren's Blossom

2 Things I Like About This Horse:

1) Recent Works: A horse coming off a 4mo layoff after finishing 6th in stakes company would normally be discouraging, but she fired a nice bullet here @ (race distance) 6f on May 17th. This company seems much more fitting for her, and the 1st time on turf will be interesting to watch.

2) Resiliency down the stretch: Check out her last 3 wins, all over synthetics @ 6f. In each case, she has built or maintained her lead at the last post, so a speed scenario where she fades late seems unlikely. Pedroza has been on the lead vs. similar with the horse before, and prevailed several times over this distance.

Nice winner, and fortunately the :6: did what I was hoping when she didn't flinch late, holding off the :5: and actually extending in the stretch. $7.00 winner was right in line with her ML rating. Gonna take a nice break until Race 6.

[justdmbobbo]

27 May 2011

++ 2 Unit "Solid Winner"

Race 3
:6: Warren's Blossom

2 Things I Like About This Horse:

1) Recent Works: A horse coming off a 4mo layoff after finishing 6th in stakes company would normally be discouraging, but she fired a nice bullet here @ (race distance) 6f on May 17th. This company seems much more fitting for her, and the 1st time on turf will be interesting to watch.

2) Resiliency down the stretch: Check out her last 3 wins, all over synthetics @ 6f. In each case, she has built or maintained her lead at the last post, so a speed scenario where she fades late seems unlikely. Pedroza has been on the lead vs. similar with the horse before, and prevailed several times over this distance.

Thanks for this write up. I had the :6: third in my lineup but bumped her up to the two slot after reading this. Kept my pick 6 and pick 4 alive!

I love the SoCal tracks as well. Keep up the good work and hit 'em big!

[positive4th]

Thanks for this write up. I had the :6: third in my lineup but bumped her up to the two slot after reading this. Kept my pick 6 and pick 4 alive!

I love the SoCal tracks as well. Keep up the good work and hit 'em big!

Glad it was helpful...........I'm of the opinion, and have been for a long time, that its not "picking" to put up like 4 choices for every race in every card, and doing it this way helps me to both control how much I bet, and how often, and also to live alot easier with the results. GL on your Pick 4/ Pick6!!

[positive4th]

27 May 2011

1 Unit "Longshot Hunch"

Race 6
:8: Turn on the Pumps

Remember the qualifications were to find a tepid ML horse that may be overlooked. This horse fits the bill nicely. What seems to be a disinterested 10th place finish in MSW company in March, and a jockey switch (albeit positive), would normally point to a horse that's not ready. But look closely at the Works pattern since that start. Each time has been solid, each workout has been a furlong longer than the last, and the intervals have been regular, leading right up to today's distance of one mile. Carla Gaines is no dummy, winning at a 33% clip this meet. Here's to hoping she's got a mild surprise in her hand tonight.

Weird race....the :7: was a scratch, then just about every horse got to reload without a jockey onboard, while the :8: had to wait it all out, with a jockey on board the entire time. But what are you gonna do, the horse faded badly in the stretch, so that's that.

[positive4th]

27 May 2011

++ 2 Unit "Solid Winner"

Race 7
:5: Courtside

2 Things I like about this Horse:

1) J/T Combo: This 3yo is 2 for 4 over the synthetics, and both wins were 1-turn sprints with Sadler/Rosario connections. Tonight? More of the same.

2) Recent work pattern: After a curious start on Turf here against better (finishing 5th), Courtside fired a good 4f work over this surface on May 16th and switches back to the main track. He broke his maiden at this level at DMR in Sept '10, and my guess is he'll fire strong again tonight.

Here's the 4 Word Summary of this race:

Broke slowly. Kicked Ass.

[positive4th]

27 May 2011

1 Unit "Longshot Hunch"

Race 8
:6: Amoracchius

If this race gets past the :4: , and there's no guarantee that it will, its VERY wide open after him, and this horse has as good a chance as any. He was bumped badly out of the gate by the :5: in his debut, still rallying to run a credible 4th in his first outing with Talamo aboard. Since JT is driving the likely favorite in this spot, Bejarano is a pretty solid 2nd choice of rider. That switch by itself tells me that trainer Mike Puype is well meaning with this horse tonight. We'll see.

Well, I was right about the race not getting past the :4: ......

[positive4th]

27 May 2011 Summary

5 Wagers, 3 Winners

For a $20 Submission, the Picks returned $38.40

See you tomorrow!!

[positive4th]

28 May 2011

++ 4 Unit "Play of the Day"

Race 7
:6:
American Lady

4 Things I Like About this Horse:

1) Orientatious: Look, Orientatious DEVASTATED a Maiden field here last Sunday. American Lady beat the horse first time out over 5.5f in an outstanding Maiden race. Orientatious bouncing back to destroy others tells alot about the class and resiliency of this horse today.

2) Bob Baffert: This is a tough spot (Aoc 80K) to be entering a 2nd timer, and American Lady is NOT in for the $80K Claiming price. There were easier spots to enter this horse if Baffert wanted to for win #2. The fact that she's here says she's absolutely up to the task.

3) Recent Works: The filly has been laying down monster works over 6f @ Santa Anita, most recently on 5/15 and 5/23.

4) :7: Rumor: If this horse wins she wins, but she's been lighting money on fire, running 2nd as a beaten favorite each of her last 2 starts. She was trying to win and could not finish the deal.

[positive4th]

28 May 2011

++ 2 Unit "Solid Winner"

Race 1
:5: Gab Power

2 Things I Like about this Horse:

1) Massive Class Drop: I know, I know, he dropped to a similar class 1 month ago and finished 3rd, but check the line again. Rosario had him deep off the pace and yet rallying for 3rd over a longer distance. That spells conditioning run in my book - -he'll fire on his favorite surface and distance today.

2) Jockey/Weight Off: Gab Power gets leading-jock Rosario again, and he is running at an all-time low weight listing of 113. He'll have energy to spare coming down the stretch.

[positive4th]

28 May 2011

++ 2 Unit "Solid Winner"

Race 2
:4: Park Time Luck

2 Things I Like about this Horse:

1) Speed over distance: Against a much tougher crew, this horse rallied for a credible 4th and finished 6f in 1:08.7. No one else in this race has come close to that time.

2) Massive drop in Class: This can work both ways, but here he's in for the tag after coming up short the last 4 starts. My guess is that against significantly weaker foes, Pedroza takes him to the winner's circle right before he's claimed for $10K.

[positive4th]

28 May 2011

++ 1 Unit Hunch Plays

Race 8: The G2 American Handicap

Exactas: :4: over :2: :7: & :2: :7: over :4:

In 2010 I saw 2 SoCal horses in person, and only 2 horses, that made me drop my jaw and say WOW. One of them was Zenyatta, and the other was :4: The Usual QT. He is 5 for 8 over this distance/surface, is for 14 for 15 ITM over turf, has never finished off the board in this spot, and will lay down monster races almost at will. He finished 3rd in the '10 BC Mile - - to freaking Goldikova and Gio Ponti. The Usual QT is for real.

And yet Sidney's Candy may be the most overall talented horse in this race, and once you figure in Liberian Freighter's recent success routing over SoCal turf, I think a few things become clear:

1) It will take a Herculean effort for anyone BUT these three to win.

2) Sid's Candy is a SoCal rock star, and Liberian Freighter is legit, but asking them BOTH to beat The Usual QT would be a tall order.

I love this race and I love these race horses. They're the 3 best horses on the card, by far. But the other races offered better wagering opportunities, and a small play on the American will allow us to enjoy watching a few spectacular horses run, and to collect a small winning ticket if they run according to form.

[xfile]

I look forward to Del Mar every year. By far the most profitable of all SoCal meets.

[positive4th]

28 May 2011

++ 2 Unit "Solid Winner"

Race 1
:5: Gab Power

2 Things I Like about this Horse:

1) Massive Class Drop: I know, I know, he dropped to a similar class 1 month ago and finished 3rd, but check the line again. Rosario had him deep off the pace and yet rallying for 3rd over a longer distance. That spells conditioning run in my book - -he'll fire on his favorite surface and distance today.

2) Jockey/Weight Off: Gab Power gets leading-jock Rosario again, and he is running at an all-time low weight listing of 113. He'll have energy to spare coming down the stretch.

Well, hats off to everyone who took the :7: in this one. Gab Power just waited and waited and waited too long.......oh well.

[positive4th]

28 May 2011

++ 2 Unit "Solid Winner"

Race 2
:4: Park Time Luck

2 Things I Like about this Horse:

1) Speed over distance: Against a much tougher crew, this horse rallied for a credible 4th and finished 6f in 1:08.7. No one else in this race has come close to that time.

2) Massive drop in Class: This can work both ways, but here he's in for the tag after coming up short the last 4 starts. My guess is that against significantly weaker foes, Pedroza takes him to the winner's circle right before he's claimed for $10K.

Well, so far 2 wagers today, and 2 second-place finishers that were trying to rally from too far behind. I guess some days you're the statue, some days you're the pigeon.

[positive4th]

28 May 2011

++ 4 Unit "Play of the Day"

Race 7
:6:
American Lady

4 Things I Like About this Horse:

1) Orientatious: Look, Orientatious DEVASTATED a Maiden field here last Sunday. American Lady beat the horse first time out over 5.5f in an outstanding Maiden race. Orientatious bouncing back to destroy others tells alot about the class and resiliency of this horse today.

2) Bob Baffert: This is a tough spot (Aoc 80K) to be entering a 2nd timer, and American Lady is NOT in for the $80K Claiming price. There were easier spots to enter this horse if Baffert wanted to for win #2. The fact that she's here says she's absolutely up to the task.

3) Recent Works: The filly has been laying down monster works over 6f @ Santa Anita, most recently on 5/15 and 5/23.

4) :7: Rumor: If this horse wins she wins, but she's been lighting money on fire, running 2nd as a beaten favorite each of her last 2 starts. She was trying to win and could not finish the deal.

3 for 3 in 2nd place.......would've been a nice place parlay

[positive4th]

28 May 2011

++ 1 Unit Hunch Plays

Race 8: The G2 American Handicap

Exactas: :4: over :2: :7: & :2: :7: over :4:

In 2010 I saw 2 SoCal horses in person, and only 2 horses, that made me drop my jaw and say WOW. One of them was Zenyatta, and the other was :4: The Usual QT. He is 5 for 8 over this distance/surface, is for 14 for 15 ITM over turf, has never finished off the board in this spot, and will lay down monster races almost at will. He finished 3rd in the '10 BC Mile - - to freaking Goldikova and Gio Ponti. The Usual QT is for real.

And yet Sidney's Candy may be the most overall talented horse in this race, and once you figure in Liberian Freighter's recent success routing over SoCal turf, I think a few things become clear:

1) It will take a Herculean effort for anyone BUT these three to win.

2) Sid's Candy is a SoCal rock star, and Liberian Freighter is legit, but asking them BOTH to beat The Usual QT would be a tall order.

I love this race and I love these race horses. They're the 3 best horses on the card, by far. But the other races offered better wagering opportunities, and a small play on the American will allow us to enjoy watching a few spectacular horses run, and to collect a small winning ticket if they run according to form.


A special thanks to the :1: Ryehill Dreamer for ensuring that this ended up a frustrating 0 for 5 outing. Tomorrow is a new day.

[positive4th]

28 May 2011 Summary

Five Wagers, Zero Winners

On a $20 Submission, Tickets return $0


Thus far, a $40 Submission returns $38.40 in Total.

[positive4th]

29 May 2011

This is one of those days where you have to remember that this is a life-long game. There doesn't HAVE to be an "unbeatable" 4-star play of the day every single today, and I for one could not find such a horse on today's card.

Instead, I'm reserving the right to make 2 "Play of the Day" plays tomorrow (Monday) if the stakes races warrant it. So today it will be a small $12 (6 Unit) Submission instead of the usual $20/10 Unit play.

Here are the 2-Unit "Solid Winners":

Race 1 :4: Broken Dreams

++ 2 Things I Like about this Horse:

1) Horse for This Course: Despite some marginal showings against G3 Company, Broken Dreams is back into a more realistic spot, but this time on her favorite distance/surface. She likes the 6f Turf course at Hollywood, and Gomez is back aboard after a 1-day shipout to Belmont.

2) Works Pattern: Very regular (and fast!!) works for this horse in May, including a 6f ride over Turf on May 12.


Race 3 :7: Smash

++ 2 Things I Like about This Horse:

1) Recency: Finished a strong 2nd in a lightning-quick 6f race @ this level on May 6th. His only other start was a maiden-breaker in June where he pulled away in the stretch. Considering the layoff, the 5/6 race was a good one, and he's shown good works since then, too.

2) J/T Combo: Baffert is obviously a top trainer in SoCal and knows what he's doing with each entry. He also has the :2: in this race, who will flash early speed, but Smash is set up to stalk and close from his outside post, just the way Baffert would want him to run this. Martin Garcia is Baffert's go-to guy and has ridden this style of race for him many times before.

[positive4th]

29 May 2011

1-Unit Hunch Play

Race 2
:8: Joseph Joe

What I Like:

++ This horse has started twice and run 4th both times, but 2 starts actually makes a veteran horse in this race. She's not shown a ton in those outings, but she has worked regularly and gets Gomez on board today.

[positive4th]

29 May 2011

1-Unit Hunch Play

Race 4
:6: Limerick Lane

2 Things stick out about this pick for me:

1) It ensures that my action is done by the 4th race, which is indicative of the BBQ I'll be going to later in the day :-)

2) This horse looks like a form darkener that could fire big today.

Notice that as she continues to get colder and colder on the tote boards, she still shows up respectably in races. Her only 6.5f time is competitive for this field, and she's fired 2 bullet works since her last start on 9 April.

[positive4th]

29 May 2011



Here are the 2-Unit "Solid Winners":

Race 1 :4: Broken Dreams

++ 2 Things I Like about this Horse:

1) Horse for This Course: Despite some marginal showings against G3 Company, Broken Dreams is back into a more realistic spot, but this time on her favorite distance/surface. She likes the 6f Turf course at Hollywood, and Gomez is back aboard after a 1-day shipout to Belmont.

2) Works Pattern: Very regular (and fast!!) works for this horse in May, including a 6f ride over Turf on May 12.

:bang: :bang: nice 3rd

[positive4th]

29 May 2011

1-Unit Hunch Play

Race 2
:8: Joseph Joe

What I Like:

++ This horse has started twice and run 4th both times, but 2 starts actually makes a veteran horse in this race. She's not shown a ton in those outings, but she has worked regularly and gets Gomez on board today.

Well, we got a $10.80 winner home, which considering the last few results feels pretty darn good.

[positive4th]

29 May 2011

Race 3 :7: Smash

++ 2 Things I Like about This Horse:

1) Recency: Finished a strong 2nd in a lightning-quick 6f race @ this level on May 6th. His only other start was a maiden-breaker in June where he pulled away in the stretch. Considering the layoff, the 5/6 race was a good one, and he's shown good works since then, too.

2) J/T Combo: Baffert is obviously a top trainer in SoCal and knows what he's doing with each entry. He also has the :2: in this race, who will flash early speed, but Smash is set up to stalk and close from his outside post, just the way Baffert would want him to run this. Martin Garcia is Baffert's go-to guy and has ridden this style of race for him many times before.

Look, that was the most annoying horse race I've watched in a long time. :7: Smash pulled it out in the deepest of deep stretch runs over the stablemate, so we got the win and will end the day ahead, regardless of the 4th race. But what really pissed me off was all the extra action on the :7: that forced my marginal opinion to take a super short price. I guess that's why they make conditional wagers..........

He was a whopping $3.00 winner, by the way.

[positive4th]

29 May 2011

1-Unit Hunch Play

Race 4
:6: Limerick Lane

2 Things stick out about this pick for me:

1) It ensures that my action is done by the 4th race, which is indicative of the BBQ I'll be going to later in the day :-)

2) This horse looks like a form darkener that could fire big today.

Notice that as she continues to get colder and colder on the tote boards, she still shows up respectably in races. Her only 6.5f time is competitive for this field, and she's fired 2 bullet works since her last start on 9 April.
:6: Limerick Lane ran a competitive 3rd, which doesn't pay but at least the horse showed up.

[positive4th]

29 May 2011 Summary

Total Wagers 4, Total Winners 2

$12 (6 Unit) Submission Returned $16.80 (8.4 Units)

Total through 3 racing Cards:

$52 (26 Unit) Submission returned $55.20 (27.6 Units)

So you'd be ahead a whopping $3.20 following these picks blindly, which isn't much, but a lot of people left Hollywood with much less......a decent start at least.

[positive4th]

30 May 2011

Thanks today to all of our veterans and current service personnel. Your work is much appreciated by the rest of us!!

On to the Races............

Yesterday I reserved the right to have 2 "Plays of the Day" because I didn't have one on Sunday. With a G3 and G1 Stakes being run @ Hollywood, I wanted to allow the extra bet in case a good enough wager presented itself. I could find no such wager on this card, though, so we're back to our "normal" $20/10 Unit Submissions.

It's a fun card today, but not necessarily an easy one, and I don't feel like lighting money on fire just because I have the time to watch all these races today.

Anyhow, my 4-Unit "Play of the Day" comes in the G1 Gamely, with the 2 Unit "Solid Winners" coming right beforehand in Races 7 & 8. Ironically, the 1-Unit hunches come in Races 5 & 6, giving us a mid to late card day today. Just the way it worked out.

[positive4th]

30 May 2011

4 Unit "Play of the Day"

Race 9 (G1 Gamely)
:2: Cozi Rosie

4 Things I Like About This Horse:

1) Terrific Connections: This isn't my FAVORITE thing about the horse, of course, but its still pretty great to jump in with a Mike Smith-John Sadler-JS Moss connected horse. You may remember the Moss's SoCal super-filly, the incomparable Zenyatta. The point in this race is that these connections are a "big game" combination - - they don't show up to darken form or run cat and mouse games, they show up to win, and I think they will today.

2) Distance/Surface Preference: Look, this is a G1 race, so they're all going to favor turf routes, but Cozi Rosie like to route the turf at this specific distance (9f), and she likes 1m routes even better. That's significant, b/c it tells me that as these races shorten up, her closing kick becomes more of a factor, which bodes well for her chances at avenging her 10f loss to :7: Malibu Pier last time out.

3) Regular Works: She's been training at regular intervals since her last out in the G2 Santa Barbara, and the fact that she's been increasing distances in works suggests that she's responded well and will be ready to fire today.

4) 2 lbs off: In her well-documented 1/2 length loss to Malibu Pier last time out, she carried 121 to MP's 119. Today she drops to 119, same weight that MP will carry again, and assuming that she gets any kind of decent trip, that kick that she showed late last time will be enough to get it done today.

[positive4th]

30 May 2011

2 Unit "Solid Winner"

Race 8 (G3 LA Hdcp)
:1: Amazombie

2 Things I Like about this Horse:

1) Recency/Versatility: I know I combined 2 into 1 here, but they've worked together for this horse. He's a still-improving 5yo from Northern Afleet who has won 3 stakes already in 2011, at 6, 6.5, and 7.5 furlongs. If any horse has been conditioned to run hard and still overcome the rail spot, its this one.

2) Jockey switches: Several horses in this field have been ridden by more than one jockey that is in this race. In every case, the switch seems to be questionable, and in the case of Amazombie, the only switch was from regular rider Smith to Roasrio, who still won with this one last time out on 4/23. With regular rider Smith back on board, a circling of the field to close deep and win makes sense.

[positive4th]

30 May 2011

2 Unit "Solid Winner"

Race 7 :5: Artuya

++ 2 Things I Like:

1) J/T Combo: Here we get a Keeneland grad trained by Baffert, piloted by Smith, and switching to a Turf route for the first time.

2) Giant's Causeway: The Irish Turf Monster has another baby running, well, a route on turf - - no accident here, and I think its a solid recipe for breaking the Maiden today.

[positive4th]

30 May 2011

1 Unit Hunch

Race 6
:3: Hurricane Harbor

This one has won once in 3 starts, with V. Espinoza aboard, and has every right to improve in this questionable field.

[positive4th]

30 May 2011

1 Unit Hunch

Race 5
:4: Cut n Deal

This horse drops back into comfortable company where he finished 2nd in 3 straight attempts, will probably go off as an underlay but has a good shot in this group.

[positive4th]

Also punched out a 1/2 Unit Pick3 on R7-R9 just in case I'm right in all 3 cases:

R7 :5:
R8 :1:
R9 :2:

[positive4th]

30 May 2011

1 Unit Hunch

Race 5
:4: Cut n Deal

This horse drops back into comfortable company where he finished 2nd in 3 straight attempts, will probably go off as an underlay but has a good shot in this group.

Didn't really show up in the stretch, to be honest.

[positive4th]

30 May 2011

1 Unit Hunch

Race 6
:3: Hurricane Harbor

This one has won once in 3 starts, with V. Espinoza aboard, and has every right to improve in this questionable field.

Another lame stretch run.......on to the main plays

[positive4th]

30 May 2011

2 Unit "Solid Winner"

Race 7 :5: Artuya

++ 2 Things I Like:

1) J/T Combo: Here we get a Keeneland grad trained by Baffert, piloted by Smith, and switching to a Turf route for the first time.

2) Giant's Causeway: The Irish Turf Monster has another baby running, well, a route on turf - - no accident here, and I think its a solid recipe for breaking the Maiden today.

That was a pleasant run for the :5: ........nice to see the factors that led me to the horse actually come into play!! $5.20 for the win.

[positive4th]

30 May 2011

2 Unit "Solid Winner"

Race 8 (G3 LA Hdcp)
:1: Amazombie

2 Things I Like about this Horse:

1) Recency/Versatility: I know I combined 2 into 1 here, but they've worked together for this horse. He's a still-improving 5yo from Northern Afleet who has won 3 stakes already in 2011, at 6, 6.5, and 7.5 furlongs. If any horse has been conditioned to run hard and still overcome the rail spot, its this one.

2) Jockey switches: Several horses in this field have been ridden by more than one jockey that is in this race. In every case, the switch seems to be questionable, and in the case of Amazombie, the only switch was from regular rider Smith to Roasrio, who still won with this one last time out on 4/23. With regular rider Smith back on board, a circling of the field to close deep and win makes sense.

Won on the track, DQ'ed to 3rd.............that sucks

[positive4th]

30 May 2011

4 Unit "Play of the Day"

Race 9 (G1 Gamely)
:2: Cozi Rosie

4 Things I Like About This Horse:

1) Terrific Connections: This isn't my FAVORITE thing about the horse, of course, but its still pretty great to jump in with a Mike Smith-John Sadler-JS Moss connected horse. You may remember the Moss's SoCal super-filly, the incomparable Zenyatta. The point in this race is that these connections are a "big game" combination - - they don't show up to darken form or run cat and mouse games, they show up to win, and I think they will today.

2) Distance/Surface Preference: Look, this is a G1 race, so they're all going to favor turf routes, but Cozi Rosie like to route the turf at this specific distance (9f), and she likes 1m routes even better. That's significant, b/c it tells me that as these races shorten up, her closing kick becomes more of a factor, which bodes well for her chances at avenging her 10f loss to :7: Malibu Pier last time out.

3) Regular Works: She's been training at regular intervals since her last out in the G2 Santa Barbara, and the fact that she's been increasing distances in works suggests that she's responded well and will be ready to fire today.

4) 2 lbs off: In her well-documented 1/2 length loss to Malibu Pier last time out, she carried 121 to MP's 119. Today she drops to 119, same weight that MP will carry again, and assuming that she gets any kind of decent trip, that kick that she showed late last time will be enough to get it done today.

The :4: can have it, I wasn't going to take that horse in virtually any running of this event.


So we got 1 winner today in 5 wagers, $10.40 on a $20 Submission and I'll do the rest of the math later, still pissed about :1: Amazombie being DQed in Race 8

[positive4th]

30 May 2011 Summary

5 Wagers, 1 Winner

$21 (10.5 Unit) Submission returns $10.40 (5.2 Units)


Overall Meet Record:

$73 (36.5 Unit) Submission returns $65.60 (32.8 Units)


By my count, that is beating the Takeout (barely), but still not profitable overall. Hopefully next weekend will be better, not so many 2nds, 3rds, and DQs.

See you then!!

[positive4th]

2 June 2011

Thursday cards are always interesting in SoCal, mostly because they rarely offer great horses or races, although that isn't always the case.

On tomorrow's card, I have not yet found a 4-Unit Play of the Day horse, and I may not find one. If not, I'll reserve the right as always to save that bet for later in the weekend, or simply to not use it at all.

What I wanted to point out in the early look, however, is a race that I'll probably not have a single wager on, but will still be watching closely:

Race 6 -- 6.5f over the Main Track for F/M 3yo+

This race is tough and definitely worth watching. Beyond ruling out the :7: and possibly the :2: who is shipping in from Golden Gate after a year layoff, it gets very hard and very interesting. You have the :3: and :4: who both come from Marino Marini out of different mares, and both of whom are running for Top Connections in this meet. But you also have the :5: who ran a great race here 2 weeks ago and now takes Gomez in the saddle instead of Rosario, and might be slightly overmatched in this company. The :6: also hops up in class, but still won over this surface/distance by 8 lengths last time out, and the :1: has run well over this track as well.

If I were playing this race, I'd likely give the slight nod to the :4: , but I'll most likely be watching from the sidelines and keeping a record for the next time some of these horses run. It's races like this that make P4/P6 tickets expensive.

[positive4th]

2 June 2011

2 Unit Solid Winner

Race 4
:5: Gator Warrior

++ 2 Things I Like:

1) J/T Combo: Baffert puts his ace rider Martin Garcia aboard Gator Warrior for the maiden voyage, and the Cherokee Run colt looks primed to run a big one first time out in this spot.

2) Recent Works Pattern: Gator Warrior has fired 3 bullets in May over 5 & 6f, and another strong work at 5f on 25 May. He's ready to go and should have a great shot today.

[positive4th]

2 June 2011

2 Unit Solid Winner

Race 3
:1: Roar Baby Roar

++ 2 Things I Like:

1) Workout Speed: You don't get much to go on generally with 2yo's, but this Hollendorfer filly is a complete speed freak. Three drills @ 4f, all in sub-48 times. She will go and go fast.

2) J/T Combo: Hollendorfer and Bejarano are easily the most potent connection combo in this line-up, and Bejarano will do fine handling the speed with an otherwise untested race horse. She should fire powerfully first time out here.

[positive4th]

2 June 2011

1 Unit Play

Race 1
:3: El Scorpio

I wanted to skip on this horse and may regret taking him, but the reality is that he's been running against better company recently and still doing pretty well. He's 6 for 18 lifetime, and last time out at this distance versus similar (and with Bejarano aboard), he ran away for a 3-length victory. Hector Palma knows how to the play the claim game and has put this 5yo in a nice spot today.

[positive4th]

2 June 2011

Write-ups are getting tiring, so here are the other two picks:

4 Unit "Play of the Day" -- R5 :4: So Belle

1 Unit Play -- R2 :5: Lilly's Perfect

[positive4th]

2 June 2011

1 Unit Play

Race 1
:3: El Scorpio

I wanted to skip on this horse and may regret taking him, but the reality is that he's been running against better company recently and still doing pretty well. He's 6 for 18 lifetime, and last time out at this distance versus similar (and with Bejarano aboard), he ran away for a 3-length victory. Hector Palma knows how to the play the claim game and has put this 5yo in a nice spot today.

Well, a great fade coming around the turn led to a nice, disappointing 3rd place in a 4 horse event. :lol:

[positive4th]

2 June 2011


1 Unit Play -- R2 :5: Lilly's Perfect

Two troubled turns, but that was still a pretty sloppy play on my part and I probably deserved the loss.

[positive4th]

2 June 2011

5 MTP Race 3, and I'm really surprised at the price (6-1 currently) on Roar Baby Roar, so I added a 1/2 Unit P3 for R3-R5:

:1:
:5:
:4:


Cold Punched my 3 faves today........we'll see.

[positive4th]

2 June 2011

2 Unit Solid Winner

Race 3
:1: Roar Baby Roar

++ 2 Things I Like:

1) Workout Speed: You don't get much to go on generally with 2yo's, but this Hollendorfer filly is a complete speed freak. Three drills @ 4f, all in sub-48 times. She will go and go fast.

2) J/T Combo: Hollendorfer and Bejarano are easily the most potent connection combo in this line-up, and Bejarano will do fine handling the speed with an otherwise untested race horse. She should fire powerfully first time out here.

2nd, but the price was at least fair.......0 for 3 today, 2 strongest picks on the way......gotta get something :rolleyes:

[positive4th]

2 June 2011

Taking a Daily Double in R4/R5 as follows:

2 Units on :5: / :4:

1 Unit Each on :4: :6: / :4:

Leaning heavily on So Belle in R5, so here's to hoping.......I'll admit that this bet is a bit out of frustration.

[positive4th]

BTW, this means that my original 10 Unit submission is now up to 14.5 Units, which may be good, it may not..........I'll learn something either way.

[positive4th]

2 June 2011

2 Unit Solid Winner

Race 4
:5: Gator Warrior

++ 2 Things I Like:

1) J/T Combo: Baffert puts his ace rider Martin Garcia aboard Gator Warrior for the maiden voyage, and the Cherokee Run colt looks primed to run a big one first time out in this spot.

2) Recent Works Pattern: Gator Warrior has fired 3 bullets in May over 5 & 6f, and another strong work at 5f on 25 May. He's ready to go and should have a great shot today.

Kinda sad that I'm that happy about a $4.00 Baffert horse, but its a win, and with the 2-Unit Double hanging on the :4: in R5, we can still sneak in a profitable day.

[positive4th]

2 June 2011

Write-ups are getting tiring, so here are the other two picks:

4 Unit "Play of the Day" -- R5 :4: So Belle



Didn't even really show up in the race.....didn't see the :7: being a factor there.

So that's 14.5 Units in, 4 Units out, 1 winner in 5 races - - I liked having the Double option in R5, but its only really value if you cash it, and we didn't today.

[positive4th]

Overall Meet Record:

$102 (51 Units) Submission Returning $73.60 (36.8 Units)


Not great by any means, still got a ways to go before this thread actually heads in the right direction.

[positive4th]

June 2 3:18 PM Hollywood Park 6 0.10 SF (PWHL) 1, 3, 4 / 1, 3, 4, 5 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 $10.80 $42.87


That play was a little ill-conceived, definitely not usual for me, and definitely a case of blind squirrel finding nut.

[positive4th]

Overall Meet Record:

$112.80 (56.4 Units) Submission Returning $116.47 (58.2 Units)

I kinda feel bad about dropping in a Dime-Super play there, but I guess it worked. Not an awesome play on my part either way.

[positive4th]

Going to start taking a slight change of course in this thread..........

2 Choices per race for the races being played at HOL/DMR, Top Choice will be for 3.5 Units, 2nd Choice will be 1.5 Units.

BUT..............all wagers will be conditional, and only actually played if Top Choice is going at 8/5 or better, and 2nd Choice only played if going at 9/2 or more. If they don't qualify, then they don't qualify and we don't play.

Kinda getting tired of watching short prices run out of the money, and if you read my signature, you see that its a bad idea.

So tomorrow we will have 3 or 4 races on the card with conditional wagers down, but they may not all play. See you then!

[positive4th]

3 June 2011

All Top Choices must be 8/5 or longer to play. All 2nd choices must be 9/2 or longer.

Race 1

Top -- :2: Aeromon (Doubt this one will get to 8/5)
2nd -- :8: Preferred Mandate (Pretty sure this one will drop below 9/2)

Race 2

Top -- :5: Alienation (again, may not get there)
2nd -- :3: Candy's Pleasure

Race 6

Top -- :3: Hot Ticket
2nd -- :8: Sexy Melody

[positive4th]

3 June 2011

Last race we're playing for the Day is R5:

Top Choice -- :4: Eye on Jacob (Might actually get the 8/5)

2nd Choice -- :6: Galleta Monstruo


We should get one of these two conditionals down, but probably not both

[positive4th]

3 June 2011

All Top Choices must be 8/5 or longer to play. All 2nd choices must be 9/2 or longer.

Race 1

Top -- :2: Aeromon (Doubt this one will get to 8/5)
2nd -- :8: Preferred Mandate (Pretty sure this one will drop below 9/2)


Well, the :8: plummeted and won, and was the best in the stretch. But I felt the price was too short on the :8: and terrific on the :2: so I'm fine with how it turned out.

[positive4th]

3 June 2011

All Top Choices must be 8/5 or longer to play. All 2nd choices must be 9/2 or longer.


Race 2

Top -- :5: Alienation (again, may not get there)
2nd -- :3: Candy's Pleasure



:3: ran out at 6-1 and finished 2nd...........not willing to back :5: alienation at 3/5