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View Full Version : Value Handicapping 101: Monday's 1st at PRX


jeebus1083
05-24-2011, 09:36 AM
You had to look no further than Race 1 at Parx, a 7-horse claiming route. #6 Comet Road had some back speed, but had dulled a bit. On paper however, her back races suggested that she could contest the pace with the #1 Untuttable Jet, and #3 Blue Hill Bay, or perhaps dominate on the front. If the pace got hot, it would set a perfect trip up for #7 Arctic Queen, whose recent form and figs were better than the rest. The rest of the field appeared overmatched.

Ultimately, two things told the story: the off-track - Comet Road was 5-for-7 on wet tracks entering the race, and Arctic Queen was no slouch either at 3-for-6 on wet - and the tote - Comet Road was 8-1, and Arctic Queen was 4/5. The clear choice on value? Comet Road. The winner when it counted? Comet Road -- $19.00 win mutuel. The favorite clicked for the place for a $58 exacta.

Redboard: Yes, I had the $19 winner. I simply wanted to share with people that sometimes, the most obvious angles can get overlooked by the public, and that the public is sometimes quick to abandon a horse whose early speed has dulled.