Best handicapper?

[beefas]

Who's the best out there today? if u had to go with one who is it?.. :cool:

[thaskalos]

Who's the best out there today? if u had to go with one who is it?.. :cool:
You say "the best out THERE"...

Out WHERE? The country...or this board?

[beefas]

for starters on this board, or just in general, ... :cool:

[Tape Reader]

From memory:

There used to be a Guy who wrote for The New York Post by the name of Manny Kalish. He would give a couple of selections for the day and explain "why." All the kids in the neighborhood would flock to his column.

When I read "The "Bossman's" analysis's of the Preakness, I thought of him.

I don't know Pace, I have no allegiance to him, and I know no others on this board. But, IMO, PA did a "Manny Kalish" analysis of the Preakness.

Win, lose or draw; PA explained his bet... and won!

P.A. was the best handicapper on Saturday.

[judd]

anybody remember maurry kram

[Rwahi1]

From memory:

There used to be a Guy who wrote for The New York Post by the name of Manny Kalish. He would give a couple of selections for the day and explain "why." All the kids in the neighborhood would flock to his column.

When I read "The "Bossman's" analysis's of the Preakness, I thought of him.

I don't know Pace, I have no allegiance to him, and I know no others on this board. But, IMO, PA did a "Manny Kalish" analysis of the Preakness.

Win, lose or draw; PA explained his bet... and won!

P.A. was the best handicapper on Saturday.


Agree with you 100% and also CJ.

[Robert Fischer]

BOBBY FISCHER AKA BIG-ATM AKA HORSERACING'S CHARLIE SHEEN ...WINNING :bang:

[thaskalos]

My vote for best handicapper of this board goes to Dahoss9698...for reasons too obvious to mention...

The best handicapper that I have ever had the pleasure to know personally is a Chicago-area player known to his friends as "the crab"...a nickname given to him because of his unorthodox style of play.

He wins so much, and so often - and yet is seemingly so ignorant about certain aspects of this game - that he has me convinced there is a level of "genius" to handicapping, that a player would have to be born with.

I would think that he is just getting lucky...except that he has been enjoying this "luck" for all of the 20 years that I know him...

[Robert Fischer]

PACE CJ DAHOSS

[proximity]

for starters on this board, or just in general, ... :cool:


as paul newman once told tom cruise, "it doesn't make any sense.... the balls roll funny for everybody." but in general on this board i'd say:

bmeadow (for california tracks) and probably someone like sjk or rook for full card simulcasting. tonyk @ hsh also had a pretty good run as a pen public handicapper for the harrisburg patriot news.

these are just guesses though and there very well could be handicappers here even better than the ones i mentioned.

[dansan]

who's the best bettor anyone can pick horses

[MickJ26]

Even the best handicappers in the world still lose most of the time.

[dkithore]

PA gets my vote as well.

[newtothegame]

Yeah I have to agree with others here as well.....
Dahoss has consistently shown here a positive ROI and not just chalks. The guy can flat out cap!

Pace...well he has come up big in the big races he has posted for us. His commenst are usually spot on. If not mistaken, he picked one of last years TC races cold for the tri (or super).....
This year cold exacta in preakness....the guy knows his capping.

CJ...although I havent seen much of his cappin, alot of people attribute their numbers to him. So if they are using his numbers and winning, well it speaks volumes for the work he puts in...

[dav4463]

I think handicapping is overrated. Anybody can learn to handicap. Anybody can find patterns and spot live longshots or solid favorites. Most of us have the ability to zero in on a horse that has a chance at a price. Some are better with low odds horses and have a unique ability to separate a 2/1 from a 3/1 and be right often enough to profit. Others are better at mid-range horses. Some of us can spot ready to win longshots.

What I want to know is who is the best BETTOR? That's the guy I want to follow.

Bet strategy is way more important than handicapping in my opinion.

[PaceAdvantage]

You can have the best betting strategy known to man, but if you're betting on horses who are paying less than they should, you're going to lose. Only through handicapping can you properly evaluate those horses who are paying more than they should, and that's the entire key to long term success, no matter how you bet or what you bet (WPS, Ex, Tri, Sup, etc).

With that said, I KNOW I'm not one of the best handicappers on this board. the little guy (Andy Serling) could kick my ass three ways to Sunday. CJ, Dahoss9698, Rook and Dave Schwartz the same. I could go on, but I do have an ego I need to preserve at least somewhat... :lol:

[turninforhome10]

Figured I would use my degree in philosophy for something useful, so my question is this:
When we ask the question, "Who is the best handicapper, are we talking about handicapping or wagering? And moreover is it possible to achieve maximum for one without a sacrifice for the other?
I have known a lot of real good handicappers(mostly jock agents), but I don't recall any of them being exceptionally rich. I also have known quite a few guys that were exceptional bettors, but handicapping was not as vital as just being in the know of a live horse.
So is there a sort of yin-yang relationship between handicapping and wagering? When do we surrender the forms and figures when a horse just looks like the deal ? When can overlook the 3-5 shipper that has the connections but we see no reason to bridgejump, because our forms tells underlay?
Are not we in a search for a state of complete objectivity in our methods? Creation of that "system" that we know that removes all the self doubt that keeps us from plunking down the big roll on the 15-1 shot in the last to finish off a big day?
Questions asked and keeping this merely on the forum, I am impressed with Dahoss and for bettors Andy Serling.
Sorry to get all heavy, just turning a corner in my handicapping and wanted some insight.Thanks

[thaskalos]

Figured I would use my degree in philosophy for something useful, so my question is this:
When we ask the question, "Who is the best handicapper, are we talking about handicapping or wagering? And moreover is it possible to achieve maximum for one without a sacrifice for the other?
I have known a lot of real good handicappers(mostly jock agents), but I don't recall any of them being exceptionally rich. I also have known quite a few guys that were exceptional bettors, but handicapping was not as vital as just being in the know of a live horse.
So is there a sort of yin-yang relationship between handicapping and wagering? When do we surrender the forms and figures when a horse just looks like the deal ? When can overlook the 3-5 shipper that has the connections but we see no reason to bridgejump, because our forms tells underlay?
Are not we in a search for a state of complete objectivity in our methods? Creation of that "system" that we know that removes all the self doubt that keeps us from plunking down the big roll on the 15-1 shot in the last to finish off a big day?
Questions asked and keeping this merely on the forum, I am impressed with Dahoss and for bettors Andy Serling.
Sorry to get all heavy, just turning a corner in my handicapping and wanted some insight.Thanks
The best HANDICAPPER and the best HORSEPLAYER can seldom be found in the same person.

The top horseplayers must possess much more than just superior handicapping skills; in fact, most of us are acquainted with players who have the handicapping skills necessary to beat this game...and yet, they are perpetually broke.

The problem, of course, is that - while superior handicapping skills are fairly easy to see - it is not possible to distinguish the winning players from the losers by just listening to their opinions...or by observing their picks on an internet message board.

Sadly, our game comes equipped with enough psychological traps to defeat even the brightest handicappers out there...

[Robert Fischer]

You can have the best betting strategy known to man, but if you're betting on horses who are paying less than they should, you're going to lose. Only through handicapping can you properly evaluate those horses who are paying more than they should, and that's the entire key to long term success, no matter how you bet or what you bet (WPS, Ex, Tri, Sup, etc).

With that said, I KNOW I'm not one of the best handicappers on this board. the little guy (Andy Serling) could kick my ass three ways to Sunday. CJ, Dahoss9698, Rook and Dave Schwartz the same. I could go on, but I do have an ego I need to preserve at least somewhat... :lol:

true both work together

good list.

[Robert Fischer]

The best HANDICAPPER and the best HORSEPLAYER can seldom be found in the same person..




right. there could be different categories

-highest total earnings guy would be at the top

- highest ROI guy w/ xearnings would be big

- 'weekend warrior' - earnings/hours etc...

[mabred]

where is Cees and Dees???? Liked to read his write ups!!!!



mabred

[llegend39]

I AM! IF you dont think that way ,no sense of playing the horses Your mentality has to be your smarter then the public

[turninforhome10]

I AM! IF you dont think that way ,no sense of playing the horses Your mentality has to be your smarter then the public
Thank you llegend thats the answer I was looking for.

[classhandicapper]

I actually think there are 3 categories.

1. Handicapping - assessing the chances of horses to win a race in a wide variety of situations

2. Betting - translating your opinions into the most profitable bets possible

3. Understanding the game - I've known people that I think are practically clueless about measuring thoroughbred performance, identifying biases, understanding the role of trainers on future performances, understanding trips, understanding the impact of pace on time and race results (sometimes two different things), understanding the quality of various fields etc.. that are winning players despite their shortcomings. They win by knowing just a few things very well, sticking to those things, and betting well.

[Valuist]

My vote for best handicapper of this board goes to Dahoss9698...for reasons too obvious to mention...

The best handicapper that I have ever had the pleasure to know personally is a Chicago-area player known to his friends as "the crab"...a nickname given to him because of his unorthodox style of play.

He wins so much, and so often - and yet is seemingly so ignorant about certain aspects of this game - that he has me convinced there is a level of "genius" to handicapping, that a player would have to be born with.

I would think that he is just getting lucky...except that he has been enjoying this "luck" for all of the 20 years that I know him...

Thats interesting because the best handicapper I know is a Chicago area handicapper. People talk about how one can't incorporate all the following factors into a figure: pace, ground loss AND bias. He does it and he's been doing it for 30 years full time.

But I've never heard him referenced as "The Crab". Has to be a different guy.

[Producer]

Andy Serling is up there with the best of them.

[Overlay]

I AM! IF you dont think that way ,no sense of playing the horses Your mentality has to be your smarter then the public

All together now, PA board members! :)

u93bhAimFFU

[Beachbabe]

Whatsamatta....you guys can't spell "Beachbabe" ?

[mistergee]

Ummmm, I'll go with B-E-A-C-H-B-A-B-E

[PICSIX]

Who's the best out there today? if u had to go with one who is it?.. :cool:

Me, on Tuesdays apparently--check my selections for today! :lol: :) :ThmbUp:

[stuball]

I have the necessary skills and the program but I do not have the discipline
to control myself....I do ok for awhile and slip into a mode where I am constantly trying to improve my selecting when if I would just stay under control I would be ok...so who is the most disciplined I say Jeff P. (Jcapper)...

Stuball

[Irish Boy]

I don't think I'm being immodest or boastful when I admit that I am the best handicapper in the entire world.

[rrpic6]

It doesn't mean a thing how well anyone handicaps. Its all about the Benjamin's...as in how much is in your pocket at the end of each race day.

RR

[PaceAdvantage]

How could I leave Jeff Platt (of HANA and JCapper fame) off my list? I'm sure there are others I have slighted as well...

[stu]

Wasn't the purpose of the PAIHL to determine this?

Until the title defense, should we not give the title of best handicapper to at least one of the members of the winning team (thaskalos - gm10 - Charlie D)?

[PaceAdvantage]

Wasn't the purpose of the PAIHL to determine this?I don't see how. It was a team effort. It wasn't an individual contest.

[BombsAway Bob]

if i could sit at a Saratoga Clubhouse Box for Six along with:
(in no particular order)
* Andy Beyer
* Andy Serling
* Steven Crist
* Joe Riddell
* Harvey Pack
i'd be the happiest Man in the World...
(and i'd do a lot of listening)

[PaceAdvantage]

That's a damn good list. Harvey Pack alone would be worth the price of admission...

[eastie]

DaHoss has shown he is the man out here. The creme of the crop .
Beyer and Pack's best days are behind them. Crist is more of a specialist. Serling owns saratoga, but has really slipped on the inner, and big sandy seems to be a big puzzle lately for him, though he is a snappy dresser.

[stu]

BILL BENTER

[the little guy]

DaHoss has shown he is the man out here. The creme of the crop .
Beyer and Pack's best days are behind them. Crist is more of a specialist. Serling owns saratoga, but has really slipped on the inner, and big sandy seems to be a big puzzle lately for him, though he is a snappy dresser.

Big Sandy has been a big puzzle for me lately? Really? I've picked over 30% winners for an ROI of over $2.40 with my top selection since the meet began.

You've added liar to jerk. Congratulations.

[Cardus]

Oy vey.

[bigmack]

Big Sandy has been a big puzzle for me lately? Really? I've picked over 30% winners for an ROI of over $2.40 with my top selection since the meet began.

You've added liar to jerk. Congratulations.
Careful. He's a Teamster.

[thelyingthief]

Even the best handicappers in the world still lose most of the time.


I don't lose most of the time. I do tread a lot of water.

tlt-

[thelyingthief]

BILL BENTER

Benter is not a handicapper, he is a statistician, and part of a team which consists of himself, a programmer, and a handicapper. Or, so the reports go.

tlt-

[thelyingthief]

It doesn't mean a thing how well anyone handicaps. Its all about the Benjamin's...as in how much is in your pocket at the end of each race day.

RR


Amen.

[fiveouttasix]

if i could sit at a Saratoga Clubhouse Box for Six along with:
(in no particular order)
* Andy Beyer
* Andy Serling
* Steven Crist
* Joe Riddell
* Harvey Pack
i'd be the happiest Man in the World...
(and i'd do a lot of listening)
This would be my list as well!...btw...TLG has been very good at Bel. this meet...no offense to the other hosts but I hope he's back on "Talking Horses" today

[Storm Cadet]

I think I would add Steve Byk onto many peoples lists. His use of TG figs, Beyers, workouts, info from trainers and owners and a great feel to make successful pick3 & 4 and super tickets is amazing! He doesn't feel the need to stick by one set of figs, uses many philosophies in his attempt to get many winners!

[pondman]

I associate with one of the best pick 4 players in the world. He's the real deal, but always wants to remain in the shadows. He'll go on win streak which last for months. He's got a remarkable memory. If the horse has raced in California, he'll know it by name-- going back years.

I don't play the 4, but we collaborate when a S. California shipper comes into town. I wouldn't think twice before handing him a couple thousand.

[classhandicapper]

Big Sandy has been a big puzzle for me lately? Really? I've picked over 30% winners for an ROI of over $2.40 with my top selection since the meet began.

You've added liar to jerk. Congratulations.

I watch the show every day and I can vouch that for the fact that he has been on fire.

[HuggingTheRail]

I really enjoy these types of threads, I think there is a distinction for some people between the best handicappers, and the best handicappers they would like to spend a day with. There are people who may be great handicappers, but personality wise, we wouldn't click.

[PhantomOnTour]

I think Dan Illman of DRF would be a great companion for a day of racing.
Always been a fan of Dave Litfin as well. His book taught me to do trainer research, recognize form patterns, and keep records.

[RaceBookJoe]

Small shot out to a few people here, 2 who post picks and 2 who do decent writeups of their choices.

picks: dahoss...he's got something good going on
judd... seems to have live runners, even though he hasnt picked a $100 winner for a few weeks now :)

writeups : Nick Tammaro, writes for Capital OTB...always gives reasons why certain horses have a shot

The person who writes the Handicappers Corner...writes a lot on Southern California racing.
ps: cant leave off our boss here !!!! rbj

[Jake]

Andy Serling is always worth serious listening. Does the massive homework and knows how different trainers and types of horses flash readiness. Everyone has numbers, but knowing when to discard them or move them up is the toughest part of handicapping. He does it as well as anyone out there that I have seen.


Jake

[Cardus]

Most race day analysts are chalk eaters. It's very simple. That's clearly not the case on the NYRA telecasts.

Exposing false favorites is one of his principal attributes.

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

All that counts is who has the most NET PROFIT on Dec.31,each year.
I think Ernie Dahlman would likely be up there.

TTRAC

[Capper Al]

From memory:

There used to be a Guy who wrote for The New York Post by the name of Manny Kalish. He would give a couple of selections for the day and explain "why." All the kids in the neighborhood would flock to his column.

When I read "The "Bossman's" analysis's of the Preakness, I thought of him.

I don't know Pace, I have no allegiance to him, and I know no others on this board. But, IMO, PA did a "Manny Kalish" analysis of the Preakness.

Win, lose or draw; PA explained his bet... and won!

P.A. was the best handicapper on Saturday.

I actually heard about Manny. He must be legendary.

[Tape Reader]

I actually heard about Manny. He must be legendary.

What I forgot to add was that this was fifty years ago!

What PA did and my comparison to Manny Kalish is that PA went out on limb (after being second guessed in the Derby), at a price, and explained the reason so thoroughly.

P.S. Did all those handicappers that PA, graciously put before him, also have the winner?

[PaceAdvantage]

P.S. Did all those handicappers that PA, graciously put before him, also have the winner?It wasn't so much grace as it was seeing some of these guys in action over the years and knowing how they go about things. A wise man knows his limitations, acknowledges those who are superior in the skills and work ethic department, and only hopes to improve upon himself by imitating the masters...

[Tape Reader]

It wasn't so much grace as it was seeing some of these guys in action over the years and knowing how they go about things. A wise man knows his limitations, acknowledges those who are superior in the skills and work ethic department, and only hopes to improve upon himself by imitating the masters...

PA. Please note that I did originally say: "P.A. was the best handicapper on Saturday."

(Glad I'm a tote board reader. Keep up the good work Guys.)

[PaceAdvantage]

I knew that... :lol:

[exiles]

BRAD THOMAS:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::Thm bUp: IMO 2ND TO NONE... MIKE WELCH FOR S.FLA ALSO VERY GOOD.

[Producer]

BRAD THOMAS:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::Thm bUp: IMO 2ND TO NONE... MIKE WELCH FOR S.FLA ALSO VERY GOOD.


Mike Welch? I'm sorry but he is terrible. Calder is my home track and I follow it closely and his picks are anything but good, let alone one of the best.

[appistappis]

I had animal kingdom in the the derby and shackleford in the preakness so right now it's me. :cool:

[PIC6SIX]

I say AMEN BRO. Could not agree more.

[classhandicapper]

I think Andy Serling has one of the toughest jobs imaginable (from a handicapping point of view). Anytime you have to make selections for every race long before you know track conditions, biases, late odds etc... you are at such an overwhelming disadvantage relative to actual live play where you have all that information and can pick your spots, it's amazing that he's profitable on his posted selections at NYRA.com for a lot of meets.

Most public and private handicappers (even the good ones) get buried under the same conditions.

I also think Brad Thomas is excellent.

[The Judge]

I was at a seminar and remember hearing that Steve Davidowitz as a public handicapper had hit some unbelievable number of races in a row. All the top handicappers in the country were there and no one disputed it. It is publish somewhere maybe Dave Swartz or another board member knows more.

I remember the number being around 13 IN A ROW.

I doubt they were chalk... remember when he was handicapper for the Oakland Tribune he gave out a horse for the rain called "Cure the Blues" it rained horse paid over $20. That bet paid for my trip to Vegas for the Handicappers Expo.

[classhandicapper]

I was at a seminar and remember hearing that Steve Davidowitz as a public handicapper had hit some unbelievable number of races in a row. All the top handicappers in the country were there and no one disputed it. It is publish somewhere maybe Dave Swartz or another board member knows more.

I remember the number being around 13 IN A ROW.

I doubt they were chalk... remember when he was handicapper for the Oakland Tribune he gave out a horse for the rain called "Cure the Blues" it rained horse paid over $20. That bet paid for my trip to Vegas for the Handicappers Expo.

Yea, he's another really good one. He has a very comprehensive approach. I like that a lot.

[thaskalos]

I was at a seminar and remember hearing that Steve Davidowitz as a public handicapper had hit some unbelievable number of races in a row. All the top handicappers in the country were there and no one disputed it. It is publish somewhere maybe Dave Swartz or another board member knows more.

I remember the number being around 13 IN A ROW.

I doubt they were chalk... remember when he was handicapper for the Oakland Tribune he gave out a horse for the rain called "Cure the Blues" it rained horse paid over $20. That bet paid for my trip to Vegas for the Handicappers Expo.
"...Davidowitz has picked a world-record 13 winners in succession, 20 out of 22, and the 1-2-3 order of eight Belmont Stakes. He also owns the two highest finishes of any public handicapper in the history of the World Series of Handicapping at Penn National Racetrack" *

* From the inside flap of Davidowitz's book BETTING THOROUGHBREDS.

[Pell Mell]

Chris Longshot...no one has increased my hit % like him..;)

[rufus999]

The best handicappers have the smarts to exploit the worthless and weak.

rufus:9::9::9:

[The Judge]

that the days that I play the races the worthless and the weak manage to not play that day. It's amazing how that happens.

The public bettor is the problem to all us great handicappers. Those grannies playing the pretty grey horse with their grandbaby's age on its saddle cloth are deadly when they all get together and gang tackle us at the windows.

[beefas]

wow...I was at suffolk yesterday and it felt like i was at a nursing home!!..so many granda ma"s and papa"s...i dont mind the old timers they were having a blast..just stay out of my window line and its all good..i over heard a older woman prob in her late 80"s say i like this horse game better than the slots..... :D ..suffolk needs every bet they can get to stay open..bring on the retired.. :cool:

[Stillriledup]

Ok, Buncha years went by, lets get some updates on who's 'the man'

[NorCalGreg]

that the days that I play the races the worthless and the weak manage to not play that day. It's amazing how that happens.

The public bettor is the problem to all us great handicappers. Those grannies playing the pretty grey horse with their grandbaby's age on its saddle cloth are deadly when they all get together and gang tackle us at the windows.

Don't know where "The Judge" is tonight, but I got a chuckle out of his old post :D

[thaskalos]

Ok, Buncha years went by, lets get some updates on who's 'the man'
Vic Stauffer.

[Stillriledup]

Vic Stauffer.

I'm gonna agree. :ThmbUp:

[thaskalos]

A relatively-new guy has shown up at our local OTB; he's been there for about 6 months...showing up whenever the NY races are running. Sits by himself chomping on an unlit cigar, and always has The Sheets with him...which he absent-mindedly leaves behind at day's end. He never shows any emotion...nor does he look particularly interested in the day's events. If he didn't quietly walk up to the automated teller machine a few times a day...then you would swear that he doesn't do any betting at all.

There was a big score made at that OTB a few of months ago, where a patron walked away with about $180,000...and subsequent investigations revealed that the money was collected by this mysterious cigar-chomping person. Since then...he has hit for $40,000...$31,000...$26,000...$12,000...all in the course of the last couple of months.

We struck up a casual conversation a couple of weeks ago, just before a grass race was about to go off...and, once the race concluded, he confessed to me that he had the trifecta "a few times". The trifecta came back about $700 for $1...and our brief acquaintance provided me with the necessary nerve to ask him how many times he had the tri. He showed me 13 separate $1 winning tickets. :)

We have talked a few more times since...but I still don't know his name. Now that this thread has been resurrected, though...I will have to find out his name, so I could officially nominate him as the "best horseplayer that I've ever met". :ThmbUp:

[NY BRED]

anyone remember Russ Harris of the NY Daily News

I always went against his picks

rarely was I right..

:ThmbUp:

[upthecreek]

QUOTE=NY BRED]anyone remember Russ Harris of the NY Daily News

I always went against his picks

rarely was I right..

:ThmbUp:[/QUOTE]

You can bet against his kid if you want! He use to make picks for the Philadelphia Inquirer




http://patha.org/craig-donnellys-parx-racing-analysis/

[Kash$]

Big Sandy has been a big puzzle for me lately? Really? I've picked over 30% winners for an ROI of over $2.40 with my top selection since the meet began.

You've added liar to jerk. Congratulations.

Apparently Andy has changed his view on ROI..

Andy Serling ‏@andyserling Nov 6 (https://twitter.com/andyserling/status/662706987596193792)
@brianwspencer (https://twitter.com/brianwspencer) @TravisStone (https://twitter.com/TravisStone) @HorsePlayerNow (https://twitter.com/HorsePlayerNow) ROIs are for haters. The best thing any of us can do is give interesting alternatives.




Like ("")

[MJC922]

I suspect there are a few folks we've never heard of and will never hear a word out of who are as good or better than the household names.

There are people who are great at strategically gearing their selection pool to the types of horses that win tournaments.

There are people who are great at gearing their selection pool to the types of horses that can bring the best chance at obtaining a flat bet profit over the course of a meet.

Finally there are people who are able to identify the types of horses that allow for real-world professional play on a day-to-day basis, i.e. consistent growth rates of a bankroll while minimizing long losing streaks as well as pushing a large amount through the windows.

The selections of this latter group will be the least flashy or clever to the outside observer and none of the real reasons these selections are profitable is likely to be evident to the masses. I would suggest of those publicly known handicappers Mr. Dahlman falls into this latter group and would get my vote. The book 'Six Secrets of Successful Bettors' has some good quotes from him.

[lamboguy]

i have no idea who the best is, but i certainly know who the worst is..


ME

[raybo]

The best "horseplayer" I've ever seen is my mentor/best friend and handicapping partner. You've never heard his name and you never will, because that's the way he wants it. You've heard the term "cold and calculated", that's him to a "T". He has checks from his ADW, for thousands of dollars, sitting in his home, many of which are many weeks old. He is still a pen and paper (and a calculator) player, even though I dragged him, kicking and screaming, into the world of the computer/internet several years ago and he has progressed to using printed Bris Ultimates rather than the paper DRF. Red, blue, and green pens, circles and arrows, checks and asterisks, and notes abound. He never says a word while studying or playing, win or lose. He's up at 5 am to eat breakfast and do stuff around the house, by 7-8am he's studying the PPs and checking weather at the tracks he's going to play that day, and plays off and on all day (depending on which tracks and races he's interested in playing) until the last track closes at night, eats and hits the rack, then he's up at 5am starting all over again. He retired from "real jobs" at 50 (worked for me as a custom workworker for years), he's now 71 and still going strong, I can't keep up with him. Invests in the market, and plays black jack and dice, when he goes to Vegas once in a while, and plays the ponies most days. He's strictly a superfecta player, and has been for several years, trifectas before that, and exactas before that.

He may not be the best out there, but he's the best I know, or likely to ever know. I may 'cap about as well as he does, but I can't "play" like him, not even close.

[Capper Al]

One doesn't need to be a great handicapper to make money. As a good seasoned handicapper and being able to put together good wagers is all it takes. I could see someone not being able to qualify for the NHC and still being profitable.

[thaskalos]

One doesn't need to be a great handicapper to make money. As a good seasoned handicapper and being able to put together good wagers is all it takes. I could see someone not being able to qualify for the NHC and still being profitable.
IMO...it takes more than just "good handicapping", and "good wagers". Ask 100 horseplayers...and most will tell you that they are at least "good".

[ebcorde]

A relatively-new guy has shown up at our local OTB; he's been there for about 6 months...showing up whenever the NY races are running. Sits by himself chomping on an unlit cigar, and always has The Sheets with him...which he absent-mindedly leaves behind at day's end. He never shows any emotion...nor does he look particularly interested in the day's events. If he didn't quietly walk up to the automated teller machine a few times a day...then you would swear that he doesn't do any betting at all.

There was a big score made at that OTB a few of months ago, where a patron walked away with about $180,000...and subsequent investigations revealed that the money was collected by this mysterious cigar-chomping person. Since then...he has hit for $40,000...$31,000...$26,000...$12,000...all in the course of the last couple of months.

We struck up a casual conversation a couple of weeks ago, just before a grass race was about to go off...and, once the race concluded, he confessed to me that he had the trifecta "a few times". The trifecta came back about $700 for $1...and our brief acquaintance provided me with the necessary nerve to ask him how many times he had the tri. He showed me 13 separate $1 winning tickets. :)

We have talked a few more times since...but I still don't know his name. Now that this thread has been resurrected, though...I will have to find out his name, so I could officially nominate him as the "best horseplayer that I've ever met". :ThmbUp:yday



subsequent investigations ? At philly park a teller told me there was ONE guy who is making a sheetload of money. They asked the main office if anyone makes money

the sheets?? you need to sit next to him. My buddy buys the sheets every day.

[thaskalos]

yday



subsequent investigations ? At philly park a teller told me there was ONE guy who is making a sheetload of money. They asked the main office if anyone makes money

the sheets?? you need to sit next to him. My buddy buys the sheets every day.

You can find out who collected on a big score...but you can NEVER find out who is making the money...no matter HOW many tellers or "main offices" you ask. And it ain't the "sheets". It's clearly the PLAYER. He could give his "Sheets" to me...and I won't know what to do with them.

[no breathalyzer]

When i first started going to the track i ran into this guy we will call Head Bobber. (we called him this because the way he would bob his head as the race was close to the finish like he could some how will the horse forward) :D I seen this guy hit 10k super for a dime a couple different times. and always seemed to hit the fatty's.. i swear for the longest time he was the best horse player i ever seen.. till one day he told me he was prob. down over a million bucks over the yrs.. the guy is a genius yet no discipline.. also so many times he would miss the tri and super cause he refused to use the 2-1 or 3-1 logical horse while using the 30-1 and 80-1 that would hit the ticket

[classhandicapper]

You can find out who collected on a big score...but you can NEVER find out who is making the money..

I think most people are wired to want and value the adrenaline rush of a major score more than they want a 3-1 shot that is good value.

A guy can be in the hole 5K but if he nails a Pick 5 for 4K, he's a hero.

Another guy can be ahead 5K and if he has $200 to win on a 3-1 that should have be 2-1, he's a nobody.

People value glory.

[raybo]

I think most people are wired to want and value the adrenaline rush of a major score more than they want a 3-1 shot that is good value.

A guy can be in the hole 5K but if he nails a Pick 5 for 4K, he's a hero.

Another guy can be ahead 5K and if he has $200 to win on a 3-1 that should have be 2-1, he's a nobody.

People value glory.

Well, you can do both. What does that make you?

[v j stauffer]

I'm gonna agree. :ThmbUp:

Thanks. But I have no such aspirations.

All I want is to win enough for Mrs. Stauffer to allow me to stay retired.

[mikesal57]

Thanks. But I have no such aspirations.

All I want is to win enough for Mrs. Stauffer to allow me to stay retired.


Good luck with that...I've been trying for years...:(

[Kash$]

Imo no such thing as the Best Handicapper 99.9% of Handicappers lose.

[mikesal57]

Imo no such thing as the Best Handicapper 99.9% of Handicappers lose.


Come on dude....we're trying to retire ;)

[Kash$]

Come on dude....we're trying to retire ;)

Game is enjoyment and keeping the mind sharp..Takeout automatically makes you a loser.:( :(

Those who make a living at this game(or claimed they do) have luxury income.

[dartman51]

When i first started going to the track i ran into this guy we will call Head Bobber. (we called him this because the way he would bob his head as the race was close to the finish like he could some how will the horse forward) :D I seen this guy hit 10k super for a dime a couple different times. and always seemed to hit the fatty's.. i swear for the longest time he was the best horse player i ever seen.. till one day he told me he was prob. down over a million bucks over the yrs.. the guy is a genius yet no discipline.. also so many times he would miss the tri and super cause he refused to use the 2-1 or 3-1 logical horse while using the 30-1 and 80-1 that would hit the ticket

:D I have a friend who is just like that. You could give him a 'Black Box' program, that, if you just played JUST the selections that it spit out, you would make a profit, HE would lose money, day after day. He drives me nuts, when we go to the OTB together. While I sit there and wait for my 6 to 10 plays to give me the odds that I need, he's playing EVERY race at every track. :bang:

[raybo]

:D I have a friend who is just like that. You could give him a 'Black Box' program, that, if you just played JUST the selections that it spit out, you would make a profit, HE would lose money, day after day. He drives me nuts, when we go to the OTB together. While I sit there and wait for my 6 to 10 plays to give me the odds that I need, he's playing EVERY race at every track. :bang:

Yup, if, for example, a black box is based on only it's selections and a flat $2 win bet, and then the user plays other races, or bets varying amounts on individual races, etc., the black box is of little or no value anymore.

[thaskalos]

Game is enjoyment and keeping the mind sharp..Takeout automatically makes you a loser.:( :(

Those who make a living at this game(or claimed they do) have luxury income.

About 15 years ago...I met a "professional horseplayer" who indeed lived what seemed to be a "successful" life. Nice home...late-model luxury car...plenty of pocket money...and no other visible means of support except going to the track every day. He had me convinced that he was the "real thing". And then, during a day of deep reflection, he confessed to me that he wasn't a professional horseplayer...he was a prior LOTTO winner. He had won a $3,000,000 grand prize 15 years prior...and was collecting the money over a span of 20 years.

Every single "professional gambler" that I've ever met has had some source of "outside income" to depend on for the necessities of life. A sane person can't function otherwise...IMO.

[Kash$]

About 15 years ago...I met a "professional horseplayer" who indeed lived what seemed to be a "successful" life. Nice home...late-model luxury car...plenty of pocket money...and no other visible means of support except going to the track every day. He had me convinced that he was the "real thing". And then, during a day of deep reflection, he confessed to me that he wasn't a professional horseplayer...he was a prior LOTTO winner. He had won a $3,000,000 grand prize 15 years prior...and was collecting the money over a span of 20 years.

Every single "professional gambler" that I've ever met has had some source of "outside income" to depend on for the necessities of life. A sane person can't function otherwise...IMO.

Yep..Why else would the pros be working....

Making a living at the track with the cost of living toda...Nah brother.. the older we get health insurance gets quite expensive..:D

[thaskalos]

Yep..Why else would the pros be working....

Making a living at the track with the cost of living toda...Nah brother.. the older we get health insurance gets quite expensive..:D
They say that "all the horseplayers die broke". Dying broke is easy. LIVING broke, is the hard part...

[Robert Goren]

.Imo no such thing as the Best Handicapper 99.9% of Handicappers lose. Some where among that 0.1% there is a guy who is better than the rest the 0.1%.
For the record I do buy into your 99.9% number. I believe it a closer to 90% based what I have seen at simulcast center here in Lincoln. You need watch bettors in action and talk them instead of just assuming that because you having trouble winning, everybody else is. Most of the about 10% do win much, but at the end of the year they are ahead at least a little. There are pretty sharp handicappers who in their "golden years" have turn betting the ponies in to pleasurable experience with it costing them anything. At this stage of their life, they no interest in taking on the stress that betting big bucks would bring. After all, retirement is getting away from stress.

[raybo]

Every single "professional gambler" that I've ever met has had some source of "outside income" to depend on for the necessities of life. A sane person can't function otherwise...IMO.

And here, all this time, I thought you were sane! :bang: :lol:

[thaskalos]

And here, all this time, I thought you were sane! :bang: :lol:
Whatever gave you THAT idea.

[raybo]

. Some where among that 0.1% there is a guy who is better than the rest the 0.1%.
For the record I do buy into your 99.9% number. I believe it a closer to 90% based what I have seen at simulcast center here in Lincoln. You need watch bettors in action and talk them instead of just assuming that because you having trouble winning, everybody else is. Most of the about 10% do win much, but at the end of the year they are ahead at least a little. There are pretty sharp handicappers who in their "golden years" have turn betting the ponies in to pleasurable experience with it costing them anything. At this stage of their life, they no interest in taking on the stress that betting big bucks would bring. After all, retirement is getting away from stress.

I agree, somewhat, I believe the number of "net" long term winning players is probably something less than 2%, and that has probably declined over the last couple of decades, so maybe closer to 1% than 2%. There are probably 10%+ that have more winning years than losing ones (money bet versus money paid), but by the time they count all their related racing costs: transportation costs, data, track entry and parking fees, track program, printer paper and ink, software costs, 'capping and wagering book purchases, etc., many of those are losing money over that time period.

[raybo]

Whatever gave you THAT idea.

Well, now that I think about "sanity" a little more......... :confused:

[Steve 'StatMan']

I don't think it is important whether one derives all, just part, or even none of their income from horse race betting. If you able to earn your living doing things you don't mind doing, in order to be able to do and live the way you don't mind doing, you're doing great in my opinion. Who cares what the "100% or they ain't nobody" crowd thinks.

[raybo]

I don't think it is important whether one derives all, just part, or even none of their income from horse race betting. If you able to earn your living doing things you don't mind doing, in order to be able to do and live the way you don't mind doing, you're doing great in my opinion. Who cares what the "100% or they ain't nobody" crowd thinks.

Well, heck, that would make most here winning players! Losing horse players can always justify it by saying it's only entertainment. IMO, a winning horse player is one who receives more money, in bet payouts, than they spend in order to play the game. Heck, if someone spends $10,000 - $20,000 on software and data, transportation costs from traveling to tracks locally and/or around the country, entry and parking fees, motel/hotel costs during those travels (if horse racing is the primary reason they are traveling/staying in motels/hotels), analysis/picks/workout subscriptions, etc., etc., and they don't consider those related costs as part of the cost of playing the game, then lots of people could claim themselves winners, when in actuality they are losing money playing the races.

[thaskalos]

. At this stage of their life, they no interest in taking on the stress that betting big bucks would bring. After all, retirement is getting away from stress.
If you are sure that the year will turn out profitable...then, where is the "stress"? Retirees invest in the stock market...even though they have no IDEA what the next year will bring.

Here is what I think:

You cannot avoid stress in this life. Stress is everywhere. It's in gambling...it's in working at a regular job...in raising a family...starting a business...EVERYWHERE!

Look at the regular "businessman", for heaven's sake. He uses all the money he has, and then borrows to the limits of his credit, to open a restaurant...without really knowing how things will turn out in the future. He hires people who are depending on him for their weekly pay...and off he goes.

Compare this with our "profitable horseplayer"...who is confident that he will be profitable at year's end. He doesn't start out by borrowing money...but he uses money that he could easily afford to lose. He starts making the small bets that his initial bankroll will allow...and gradually increases his wagers as the bankroll increases. If the starting bankroll is $1,000...then the starting bet is $10 to win. If the bankroll becomes $1,500...then the bet becomes $15 to win. If he sees the bankroll at $2,000...then he bets $20 to win.

The betting escalation is so gradual, that it could hardly be called a shock to the system of even the most TIMID player. After all...the entire business enterprise is started with that first $1,000 that he could "easily afford to lose". And, when he gets up to a bankroll of, say, $3,000...he could put the original $1,000 back in the bank...thus reducing the overall risk to ZERO. Now he has $2,000 of the TRACK'S money...and he could play it up as high as it will go. If it becomes $4,000...then the bets become $40...etc.

As I said before...this betting escalation is so gradual, that he'll barely notice it. Not to mention how confident he will become...after watching the bankroll grow while his original stake is safely tucked away in the bank.

So...where is the "stress", detective? Can you point it out to me please?

Our "handicapping expert" is betting entirely with house money...and he is confident that he will win at year's end. He is gradually increasing his bankroll over time...without having this affect his lifestyle in any way...because all his OTHER money is safely tucked away. Where is the stress?

[Steve 'StatMan']

It is nice when people are up money, but I pretty much don't care if anyone tells me they are a winning player, make 100% of their money off wagers, partially, or what. I've figured out who I'll listen to, and until someone proves they have knowledge of worth that I can agree with or find to be true, then I'll consider listening with an intent to remember and think about it before I do any 'heeding.'

I remember a man who seemed like the smartest and one of the more well to do men I knew, must have made at least 6 figures a year at his enterprises. He kept asking myself and my 'pro but not 100% winning pro" more & more about the game, feeling that he wanted to be the horses for a living. The guy even went so far as to track down Bill Quirin by phone. I don't know what all he did, and the guy was as serious as a heart attack, but I thought he should keep with his enterprises, far more lucrative. At least until he was satisfied earned enough to comfortably retire, anyway.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Anyone betting for 100% of their income had damn well better have plenty of living money stashed away on the side, or have a means of some supplemental income (but the 100%'ers claim no fair-that's not a pro, hah!) When your income for your near and future expenses has to come from that bankroll, and so now you have a smaller bankroll because you're having to support you're life, not that's harder.

Of course when you're in your 50, and esp. 60's to 80's + like many posters here, quite unlikely to grow that $1,000 and $10 bets into a $100,000 bankroll and $1,000 bets. But don't let anyone convince you that you have to or you're nothing. Just don't be a bragger.

Thaks, I'm wondering if I know that 'pro' guy you talked about earlier. I may ask by PM and you can say yes or no. Guy was always at the track, always trying to convince people he was a big bettor (and to a degree he was, but a significant loser at the windows.) When a late race Superfecta or Trifecta would come in for 5+ figures at Hawthorne, a few minutes later, he would always give me a finger-wag and a psst to come over, and he'd show me a winning superfecta ticket with thos numbers on it. But he always held the ticket so that the name of the track was covered up - I think he just bet it on a future race at, say Santa Anita, and then privately cancel the ticket later when out of sight, like when he likely punched the ticket. Other times, when I wasn't around, and he actually did hit for a mere (by those unconfirmed standards) $1,000, he would supposedly shake quite a bit and stutter.

[thaskalos]

Well, now that I think about "sanity" a little more......... :confused:

Ray...the vast majority of the people slave at a job that they hate for 40 years. Is this "sane"? What does "sanity" really get you in the end? Life is short...too short to spend it on unpleasant things. I look at myself as a "Great Discoverer". I go off to uncharted territories...and then I come here to this site...to report what I have found. :)

Ever since I was 18...all I ever wanted to be was a "renegade gambler"...living (and dying) by my wits. And that's what I am doing now. I feel that I am fulfilling my life's purpose. I don't need "respect"...and I don't value "recognition". While other people have their lives all "nice and scripted"...I enjoy the feeling of not knowing what the next day will bring. I find that a certain level of "uncertainty" let's me know that I am truly "alive".

Some of us are too adventurous for a "straight life". We just can't fit behind a desk...

[raybo]

If you are sure that the year will turn out profitable...then, where is the "stress"? Retirees invest in the stock market...even though they have no IDEA what the next year will bring.

Here is what I think:

You cannot avoid stress in this life. Stress is everywhere. It's in gambling...it's in working at a regular job...in raising a family...starting a business...EVERYWHERE!

Look at the regular "businessman", for heaven's sake. He uses all the money he has, and then borrows to the limits of his credit, to open a restaurant...without really knowing how things will turn out in the future. He hires people who are depending on him for their weekly pay...and off he goes.

Compare this with our "profitable horseplayer"...who is confident that he will be profitable at year's end. He doesn't start out by borrowing money...but he uses money that he could easily afford to lose. He starts making the small bets that his initial bankroll will allow...and gradually increases his wagers as the bankroll increases. If the starting bankroll is $1,000...then the starting bet is $10 to win. If the bankroll becomes $1,500...then the bet becomes $15 to win. If he sees the bankroll at $2,000...then he bets $20 to win.

The betting escalation is so gradual, that it could hardly be called a shock to the system of even the most TIMID player. After all...the entire business enterprise is started with that first $1,000 that he could "easily afford to lose". And, when he gets up to a bankroll of, say, $3,000...he could put the original $1,000 back in the bank...thus reducing the overall risk to ZERO. Now he has $2,000 of the TRACK'S money...and he could play it up as high as it will go. If it becomes $4,000...then the bets become $40...etc.

As I said before...this betting escalation is so gradual, that he'll barely notice it. Not to mention how confident he will become...after watching the bankroll grow while his original stake is safely tucked away in the bank.

So...where is the "stress", detective? Can you point it out to me please?

Our "handicapping expert" is betting entirely with house money...and he is confident that he will win at year's end. He is gradually increasing his bankroll over time...without having this affect his lifestyle in any way...because all his OTHER money is safely tucked away. Where is the stress?

You simplify this way too much. Why do you suppose most people cannot own their own business? Is it just money to get started? Nope, it's the doubts involved. And, many people are risk averse, preferring money in the bank/savings account than in investing, with the chance of losing some, if not all, of it. And, for most, betting on horses, with human riders, running around a track, does not qualify as a sound vehicle for investment purposes. Anyone seriously considering horse racing as an investment opportunity, surely knows that the vast majority of horse players are losing money long term. That $1000 initial investment, for the average horse racing player, is not something they can afford to just throw away if things go wrong for an extended period of time -- which is almost guaranteed to happen at some point in racing, so why not at the very beginning?

Sure, there are some that have enough money laying around to afford $1000 to put at risk, but the average player doesn't have that kind of money just laying around. Most players start with $2 bets, or $1 bets if they are available, because $10-$20 per day, 1 or 2 days per week is something they can afford. When I started betting I was making about $40,000 per year, and I felt that all I could risk initially was a $100 starting bankroll. I lost that and deposited another $100, then another, and finally another. So, I invested $400 before I became a profitable player. I turned that $400 into over $7700 in the next 1 1/2 months, playing $1 base bet superfectas only. But, after that $7700 bankroll happened, things went downhill for 4 straight months, and I was having to pay the bills out of it too, reducing it to $4400 during that time. So, I quit betting for a year and took a regular job.

Why did I quit for a year? Because I doubted my method of playing, and I knew that if it continued I would soon be broke, with no income at all. The stress of the cost of living, and that decrease in bankroll, was too much for me to handle pschologically and mentally. "Stress" is different to different people. Not everyone can handle as much stress as you can. Hell, people have heart attacks over stress. People do things they would never do, because of stress. People make very bad decisions because of stress, which becomes compounded as the bad decisions lead to more stress, and more bad decisions. It's a vicious circle that can only broken by getting lucky and making a very big score, or by stopping the source of the stress altogether.

So, "stress", in your mind, is not the same amount of "stress" in other people's minds. It's an individual level, applicable only to that particular individual.

You say "stress is everywhere", and that's perfectly true, but it's the level of stress, to individuals, that determines whether or not they can operate in an efficient, unemotional, patient, disciplined, consistent, focused, motivated, and confident manner. And, for many of those individuals, that level is quite low, regardless of the confidence in, and proven viability of, their methodology. For some, it takes very little to degrade that confidence and increase their stress level, leading to bad decisions, leading to even more increases in stress.

That's why I have always stated that, it's the rare individual that can handle full time play, with no other source of income and security. If what you have stated about your own racing career is true, and I personally think it is, you are one of those rare individuals. Unfortunately, most are not, and certainly not me. I am confident only because I know if I "handle my business" I will win, but I am not so confident that, under high stress levels, that I can continue to "handle my business". But, if I limit that stress, by having a steady source of income, and betting well within myself, I am supremely confident that I will continue to profit long term. I know that I don't have to win gobs of money in order to live my life, I could lose my entire bankroll, and I'd still be just fine. That's what allows me to remain relatively stress free.

[v j stauffer]

Game is enjoyment and keeping the mind sharp..Takeout automatically makes you a loser.:( :(

Those who make a living at this game(or claimed they do) have luxury income.

I know about a half dozen guys that win. Always have and are FAR in front for their lives.

All but one play through rebate houses which of course is a TREMENDOUS, critical edge.

I have one friend that's such a sicko savant he just trudges away with his TVG account and wins.

It can be done. But believe me it ain't easy Mcgee.

Since it's pari-mutuel there's a finite amount one can win.

My friend the savant showed me the accounts proving he grinds out about 200k a year.

I told him Great! Congrats! But you're making about $1.46 an hour! :bang: :)

[thaskalos]

You simplify this way too much. Why do you suppose most people cannot own their own business? Is it just money to get started? Nope, it's the doubts involved. And, many people are risk averse, preferring money in the bank/savings account than in investing, with the chance of losing some, if not all, of it. And, for most, betting on horses, with human riders, running around a track, does not qualify as a sound vehicle for investment purposes. Anyone seriously considering horse racing as an investment opportunity, surely knows that the vast majority of horse players are losing money long term. That $1000 initial investment, for the average horse racing player, is not something they can afford to just throw away if things go wrong for an extended period of time -- which is almost guaranteed to happen at some point in racing, so why not at the very beginning?

Sure, there are some that have enough money laying around to afford $1000 to put at risk, but the average player doesn't have that kind of money just laying around. Most players start with $2 bets, or $1 bets if they are available, because $10-$20 per day, 1 or 2 days per week is something they can afford. When I started betting I was making about $40,000 per year, and I felt that all I could risk initially was a $100 starting bankroll. I lost that and deposited another $100, then another, and finally another. So, I invested $400 before I became a profitable player. I turned that $400 into over $7700 in the next 1 1/2 months, playing $1 base bet superfectas only. But, after that $7700 bankroll happened, things went downhill for 4 straight months, and I was having to pay the bills out of it too, reducing it to $4400 during that time. So, I quit betting for a year and took a regular job.

Why did I quit for a year? Because I doubted my method of playing, and I knew that if it continued I would soon be broke, with no income at all. The stress of the cost of living, and that decrease in bankroll, was too much for me to handle pschologically and mentally. "Stress" is different to different people. Not everyone can handle as much stress as you can. Hell, people have heart attacks over stress. People do things they would never do, because of stress. People make very bad decisions because of stress, which becomes compounded as the bad decisions lead to more stress, and more bad decisions. It's a vicious circle that can only broken by getting lucky and making a very big score, or by stopping the source of the stress altogether.

So, "stress", in your mind, is not the same amount of "stress" in other people's minds. It's an individual level, applicable only to that particular individual.

You say "stress is everywhere", and that's perfectly true, but it's the level of stress, to individuals, that determines whether or not they can operate in an efficient, unemotional, patient, disciplined, consistent, focused, motivated, and confident manner. And, for many of those individuals, that level is quite low, regardless of the confidence in, and proven viability of, their methodology. For some, it takes very little to degrade that confidence and increase their stress level, leading to bad decisions, leading to even more increases stress.

That's why I have always stated that, it's the rare individual that can handle full time play, with no other source of income and security. If what you have stated about your own racing career is true, and I personally think it is, you are one of those rare individuals. Unfortunately, most are not, and certainly not me. I am confident only because I know if I "handle my business" I will win, but I am not so confident that, under high stress levels, that I can continue to "handle my business". But, if I limit that stress, by having a steady source of income, and betting well within myself, I am supremely confident that I will continue to profit long term. I know that I don't have to win gobs of money in order to live my life, I could lose my entire bankroll, and I'd still be just fine. That's what allows me to remain relatively stress free.

It's unfair to take a post that was aimed at someone else...and turn it into something that was supposedly targeted at you. If it was YOU that I was addressing...then I would have phrased my post differently.

I have never advocated the gambler's lifestyle. In fact...I have repeatedly stated that I hide what I do from my very own SON. Serious gambling isn't for EVERYONE...nor SHOULD it be.

You say that the average horseplayer doesn't have $1,000 laying around...but could only afford to take $10-$20 with him on his typical track visit. It is a totally ERRONEOUS assertion...IMO. This isn't the "average player"...that you are describing. It's the player at the very bottom of the ladder...who has no business within 50 MILES of a racetrack. I refer you to the books of the inimitable Tom Ainslie...who advised that the horseplayer who was seeking a profit at the track was FOOLING HIMSELF if he made $2 bets. Ainslie advocated that the accomplished player should start with at least $20 win bets...and hE wrote his books in the 1960s.

The "average horseplayer" is out there betting a lot more money than you think, Ray. Trust me on that

[raybo]

My friend the savant showed me the accounts proving he grinds out about 200k a year.

I told him Great! Congrats! But you're making about $1.46 an hour! :bang: :)

I assume you were kidding, but, unless he is 'capping and playing more than 8 hours per day, he's making far more than $1.46 per hour. It's more like $58 per hour. And, if he's not playing every day of the year, it's even higher. :lol:

[raybo]

It's unfair to take a post that was aimed at someone else...and turn it into something that was supposedly targeted at you. If it was YOU that I was addressing...then I would have phrased my post differently.

I have never advocated the gambler's lifestyle. In fact...I have repeatedly stated that I hide what I do from my very own SON. Serious gambling isn't for EVERYONE...nor SHOULD it be.

You say that the average horseplayer doesn't have $1,000 laying around...but could only afford to take $10-$20 with him on his typical track visit. It is a totally ERRONEOUS assertion...IMO. This isn't the "average player"...that you are describing. It's the player at the very bottom of the ladder...who has no business within 50 MILES of a racetrack. I refer you to the books of the inimitable Tom Ainslie...who advised that the horseplayer who was seeking a profit at the track was FOOLING HIMSELF if he made $2 bets. Ainslie advocated that the accomplished player should start with at least $20 win bets...and hi wrote his books in the 1960s.

The "average horseplayer" is out there betting a lot more money than you think, Ray. Trust me on that

I didn't think your post was aimed at me. I thought it was aimed at every horse player.

Oh, and the "inimitable Tom Ainslie"opinion, and your personal opinion, of the average horse player, are no more accurate than mine. Why do you think that $2, or $1 at many race tracks/ADWs, is the minimum bet? Because that is comfortable for the average horse player.

[Capper Al]

IMO...it takes more than just "good handicapping", and "good wagers". Ask 100 horseplayers...and most will tell you that they are at least "good".

That's the problem. Opinion has nothing to do with it. Either one is a decent capper or not, let's say can pick 25% winners or more. If so, how are they putting their wagers together, profitable or not? And the bar at 25% isn't set all that high.

[cbp]

That's the problem. Opinion has nothing to do with it. Either one is a decent capper or not, let's say can pick 25% winners or more. If so, how are they putting their wagers together, profitable or not? And the bar at 25% isn't set all that high.

I disagree. It's about confidence. I'm tired of reading about all the intangibles. If you can pick winners, steadily pick winners and have the nuts to do so when you're up against it, you can win. If you're good and you know it, you bet the next one with full confidence - even if you're in a hard luck streak. The 300 hitter has ups and downs but he never doubts he can hit. He has the skill and knows it.

[thaskalos]

I didn't think your post was aimed at me. I thought it was aimed at every horse player.
My post was a reply to Robert Goren...who stated that there are "winning players" out there who insist on betting "small", because they can't handle the "stress" associated with making big bets. I presented a scenario where the "winning player" could gradually escalate to some serious betting...starting with a relatively small initial investment...which he could even secure FURTHER, into the future...without subjecting himself to any meaningful stress at all.

You couldn't argue with my REAL point...so, you started off by asserting that the average horseplayer brings $10-$20 with him to the track...and only makes $2 bets. If that's what the "average knowledgeable player" bets, Ray...then, what do you suppose the bustout degenerates bet?

This is an ongoing argument here between you and me...where you continuously assert that the game's best players needn't necessarily make larger wagers. To you...it is entirely possible for the best horseplayer in the world to be sitting in some OTB right now...betting nothing but $5 to win and place on his horses. To me...this sort of thinking is utterly RIDICULOUS! The best gamblers KNOW who they are...and they bet accordingly. You don't work for peanuts...when you could earn big money with the same effort.

[thaskalos]

Oh, and the "inimitable Tom Ainslie"opinion, and your personal opinion, of the average horse player, are no more accurate than mine. Why do you think that $2, or $1 at many race tracks/ADWs, is the minimum bet? Because that is comfortable for the average horse player.
The low minimum win bets aren't aimed at the "average player". They are aimed at the bustout degenerate...who is walking around with coins in his pockets. The racetrack is after everything...coins and all.

[Saratoga_Mike]

The low minimum win bets aren't aimed at the "average player". They are aimed at the bustout degenerate...who is walking around with coins in his pockets. The racetrack is after everything...coins and all.

Just looking at on-track handle and attendance numbers, my guess is the avg player bets roughly $15/race.

[thaskalos]

Just looking at on-track handle and attendance numbers, my guess is the avg player bets roughly $15/race.
We are not just talking "on track" when we are talking "average horseplayer". Today...the "average horseplayer" is nowhere NEAR a track. The "average player" is not a $2 bettor. The BOTTOM-LEVEL player is the $2 bettor. The "average player" bets a lot more than that.

When the industry leaders were calling the "$2 bettor", the "backbone of the industry"...they were LYING.

If the average horseplayer started his betting day with $10-$20 in his pocket, as Raybo asserts...then the game would have folded DECADES ago.

[Saratoga_Mike]

We are not just talking "on track" when we are talking "average horseplayer". Today...the "average horseplayer" is nowhere NEAR a track. The "average player" is not a $2 bettor. The BOTTOM-LEVEL player is the $2 bettor. The "average player" bets a lot more than that.

When the industry leaders were calling the "$2 bettor", the "backbone of the industry"...they were LYING.

If the average horseplayer started his betting day with $10-$20 in his pocket, as Raybo asserts...then the game would have folded DECADES ago.

I thought $15/race (again per race) was a good proxy for the avg player. If it is, I suspect the avg player walks in with $100 to $200 in their pocket. I have no idea how to ascertain the avg number at ADWs. The $10 to $20 number doesn't seem right to me - way too low.

[raybo]

My post was a reply to Robert Goren...who stated that there are "winning players" out there who insist on betting "small", because they can't handle the "stress" associated with making big bets. I presented a scenario where the "winning player" could gradually escalate to some serious betting...starting with a relatively small initial investment...which he could even secure FURTHER, into the future...without subjecting himself to any meaningful stress at all.

You couldn't argue with my REAL point...so, you started off by asserting that the average horseplayer brings $10-$20 with him to the track...and only makes $2 bets. If that's what the "average knowledgeable player" bets, Ray...then, what do you suppose the bustout degenerates bet?

This is an ongoing argument here between you and me...where you continuously assert that the game's best players needn't necessarily make larger wagers. To you...it is entirely possible for the best horseplayer in the world to be sitting in some OTB right now...betting nothing but $5 to win and place on his horses. To me...this sort of thinking is utterly RIDICULOUS! The best gamblers KNOW who they are...and they bet accordingly. You don't work for peanuts...when you could earn big money with the same effort.

I did argue your point to Robert, even though maybe you think it was not my right to do so. If you don't see the argument to your point in my post, I'm sorry.


"Degenerate" gamblers are not included in my argument, they often bet much more than they can afford. I am talking about the average horse player, not the degenerate gamblers out there. The average player has a normal, relatively low wage job, with a family, and rent/mortgage payments, utilities costs, credit accounts, car payments, insurance payments, gasoline costs, food costs, clothing costs, education costs, taxes on everything he buys and earns, etc., etc., etc.. Entertainment allowances under those conditions, are much lower than you think, evidently. Whether or not that $2 player should be gambling at all, is beside the point, because they do anyway. What you or I think about the efficacy of gambling money that you can't afford to lose, means nothing at all. Those people aren't "degenerate" gamblers, they are normal human beings, hoping to get lucky and feel really good a few times a month or year.

And, I never said anything about "the best horseplayers" out there. I said that it is entirely possible for someone to be profitable betting small amounts. The level of profitability is not important, unless it's in your opinion I assume (in your opinion, evidently, if a player isn't betting lots of money and making lots of profit, he is not a good player). Do I think I'm one of the best players out there? Absolutely not. But, I am a net profitable player, and the percentage of those players has been estimated at abut 2% of all players. To belong to that 2% group, there is no requirement for a minimum level of betting amounts, or level of profit. The amount you bet, and the amount of profit one expects, is entirely dependent on the player, and the amount of stress he/she can handle without degrading his/her play.

[thaskalos]

I thought $15/race (again per race) was a good proxy for the avg player. If it is, I suspect the avg player walks in with $100 to $200 in their pocket. I have no idea how to ascertain the avg number at ADWs. The $10 to $20 number doesn't seem right to me - way too low.
Of course it's too low. And if we confined ourselves to those bettors who consider themselves "knowledgeable"...then the betting amounts increase further still.

In poker...winning players are sometimes reluctant to play for higher stakes...because they know that the bigger games usually host better players. You could beat the $3-$6 game...but find yourself a loser in the $10-$20 game. But in horseracing...the winning $2 bettor can make 10 TIMES the money by betting $20, with no fear of "competition" to worry about...and the "stress level" in making a few $20 bets a couple of days a week is easily manageable.

Making $2 bets is the equivalent of poker's penny-ante, for heaven's sake...and no one plays that anymore. Come on...

[AndyC]

..... I don't need "respect"...and I don't value "recognition".
...

We are kindred spirits! I don't run my life based on how I will be perceived by others.

[Saratoga_Mike]

. But in horseracing...the winning $2 bettor can make 10 TIMES the money by betting $20, with no fear of "competition" to worry about...and the "stress level" in making a few $20 bets a couple of days a week is easily manageable.



Totally agree. Going from $20 to $200 could stress said player, though, imo.

[thaskalos]

I did argue your point to Robert, even though maybe you think it was not my right to do so. If you don't see the argument to your point in my post, I'm sorry.


"Degenerate" gamblers are not included in my argument, they often bet much more than they can afford. I am talking about the average horse player, not the degenerate gamblers out there. The average player has a normal, relatively low wage job, with a family, and rent/mortgage payments, utilities costs, credit accounts, car payments, insurance payments, gasoline costs, food costs, clothing costs, education costs, taxes on everything he buys and earns, etc., etc., etc.. Entertainment allowances under those conditions, are much lower than you think, evidently. Whether or not that $2 player should be gambling at all, is beside the point, because they do anyway. What you or I think about the efficacy of gambling money that you can't afford to lose, means nothing at all. Those people aren't "degenerate" gamblers, they are normal human beings, hoping to get lucky and feel really good a few times a month or year.

And, I never said anything about "the best horseplayers" out there. I said that it is entirely possible for someone to be profitable betting small amounts. The level of profitability is not important, unless it's in your opinion I assume (in your opinion, evidently, if a player isn't betting lots of money and making lots of profit, he is not a good player). Do I think I'm one of the best players out there? Absolutely not. But, I am a net profitable player, and the percentage of those players has been estimated at abut 2% of all players. To belong to that 2% group, there is no requirement for a minimum level of betting amounts, or level of profit. The amount you bet, and the amount of profit one expects, is entirely dependent on the player, and the amount of stress he/she can handle without degrading his/her play.

You have said that your long-term ROI sometimes exceeds 1.40. A 1.20 ROI is the MINIMUM that you are willing to accept...you have said here. And you've also stated that you can find at least 10 bets on average...while scanning several different racetracks...on the days that you decide to bet.

If you can do all that...then, not only are you "one of the best players out there"...but I hereby nominate you for the BEST PLAYER OF THE ENTIRE CIVILIZED WORLD award.

I guarantee that there is no one else out there who can do what you can do. NO ONE!

[Saratoga_Mike]

With a 1.40 ROI, I'd fire with both hands...impressive stat.

[whodoyoulike]

If you are sure that the year will turn out profitable...then, where is the "stress"? Retirees invest in the stock market...even though they have no IDEA what the next year will bring.

Here is what I think:

... Where is the stress?

You're confusing investing with gambling. When gambling after the event there is no value but, after you've made an investment there should still be value maybe just not the same as when you started.

And, the stress comes in gambling when going from $1,000 to $3,000 in your example when it really is a gamble and you need the $1,000.

[Saratoga_Mike]

You're confusing investing with gambling. When gambling after the event there is no value but, after you've made an investment there should still be value maybe just not the same as when you started.

And, the stress comes in gambling when going from $1,000 to $3,000 in your example when it really is a gamble and you need the $1,000.

It's gambling when I go to the track (I typically lose a small amount each year). If one has a long-term ROI in excess of 1.20 with a repeatable process in place, it's more akin to investing, imo.

[v j stauffer]

I assume you were kidding, but, unless he is 'capping and playing more than 8 hours per day, he's making far more than $1.46 per hour. It's more like $58 per hour. And, if he's not playing every day of the year, it's even higher. :lol:

Yes I was kidding but it sure seemed that way. Even at $58 an hour it's thankless work.

And don't forget. His days can be 20 hour workdays.

[thaskalos]

Totally agree. Going from $20 to $200 could stress said player, though, imo.

That's true, Mike...but you must understand that this betting escalation is so gradual...that it becomes almost imperceptible. This isn't done in one great leap. And, no one forces the player to keep his bankroll all intact while the "going is good".

Let's say that you are fully confident that you can beat this game. You have played this game on an infrequent basis, and you like your results...and you want to get a little more "serious". What do you do? Do you put $100 down as a bankroll, and start by betting $1 to win...so it could take you YEARS to get to the $20 bet level? Of course not. If you are indeed a "serious player"...then you act in a "serious" manner. You put your other "hobbies" on hold for a while, and even manage to work a few extra hours at your regular job...so you can save up your bankroll money THAT way...in a more expedient manner. Now...if you tell me that you find yourself in the type of financial bind where there is no way at all that you can manage to save any bankroll money...then, I must tell you that your financial circumstances dictate that you stop playing this game ALTOGETHER. IMO...we should play this game only when our financial life is on some sort of stable ground.

Now...let's say that you've saved up $2,000 as a bankroll...and you are ready to attack the races in a regular, but responsible manner. There is no law that says that you must continuously bet until the entire $2,000 is GONE. You can quit whenever you feel "uncomfortable"...and SAVE the rest of the money. Nor are you obligated to keep your bankroll intact during the "fat times". If you are as good a player as Raybo is...then you may find yourself with $15,000 at years end, after only a mild bet escalation. You have a great deal of flexibility now. You can take half of that money and put it in the BANK...while you play with the OTHER half. Do you see the great spot that you've placed yourself in now? You started with $2,000...and you have tucked $7,500 safely in the bank. How "stressed" do you supposed you will feel now...when your bankroll requests a further increase in bet size?

Am I "greatly exaggerating"...or "overly simplifying" things? NO! That's what you do...when you really have confidence in your horse playing abilities. We are not talking "let's-quit-our-jobs-and-play-horses-for-a-living" here. We are treating this game as just another "investment venue"...like the STOCK MARKET, for instance.

In the stock market...the wise "don't put all their eggs in one basket". Well...in our game...we put a few of our spare eggs in one basket...and we keep a close eye on the basket.

[thaskalos]

You're confusing investing with gambling. When gambling after the event there is no value but, after you've made an investment there should still be value maybe just not the same as when you started.

And, the stress comes in gambling when going from $1,000 to $3,000 in your example when it really is a gamble and you need the $1,000.

If you "really need the money"...then stay home. Serious play isn't for everybody. Gambling is the only place where so many of the "experts" are always in "need of money". :rolleyes:

[thaskalos]

We are kindred spirits! I don't run my life based on how I will be perceived by others.
I knew there was something that I liked about you. :)

[v j stauffer]

If you are sure that the year will turn out profitable...then, where is the "stress"? Retirees invest in the stock market...even though they have no IDEA what the next year will bring.

Here is what I think:

You cannot avoid stress in this life. Stress is everywhere. It's in gambling...it's in working at a regular job...in raising a family...starting a business...EVERYWHERE!

Look at the regular "businessman", for heaven's sake. He uses all the money he has, and then borrows to the limits of his credit, to open a restaurant...without really knowing how things will turn out in the future. He hires people who are depending on him for their weekly pay...and off he goes.

Compare this with our "profitable horseplayer"...who is confident that he will be profitable at year's end. He doesn't start out by borrowing money...but he uses money that he could easily afford to lose. He starts making the small bets that his initial bankroll will allow...and gradually increases his wagers as the bankroll increases. If the starting bankroll is $1,000...then the starting bet is $10 to win. If the bankroll becomes $1,500...then the bet becomes $15 to win. If he sees the bankroll at $2,000...then he bets $20 to win.

The betting escalation is so gradual, that it could hardly be called a shock to the system of even the most TIMID player. After all...the entire business enterprise is started with that first $1,000 that he could "easily afford to lose". And, when he gets up to a bankroll of, say, $3,000...he could put the original $1,000 back in the bank...thus reducing the overall risk to ZERO. Now he has $2,000 of the TRACK'S money...and he could play it up as high as it will go. If it becomes $4,000...then the bets become $40...etc.

As I said before...this betting escalation is so gradual, that he'll barely notice it. Not to mention how confident he will become...after watching the bankroll grow while his original stake is safely tucked away in the bank.

So...where is the "stress", detective? Can you point it out to me please?

Our "handicapping expert" is betting entirely with house money...and he is confident that he will win at year's end. He is gradually increasing his bankroll over time...without having this affect his lifestyle in any way...because all his OTHER money is safely tucked away. Where is the stress?

Even though I promised myself I wouldn't. This post brings up so many salient points I want to respond.

To me your words sound real and credible. The ebbs, flows and stress are the undoing of many excellent handicappers.

It's why even though you poo-pooed and belittled the concept of tournament play I think it can be a very good way for many people to go.

It allows player to handicap a myriad of different kinds of races and tracks. You cannot blow off a race just because it "seems" to easy (chalky) or too tough.

The financial rewards are REAL. Cap well get paid. Cap poorly you lose.

It gives the player MUCH more control over managing their bankroll.

We all have strengths and weaknesses. Over the years, when I've played the windows, I have a bad habit of going on tilt and chasing if stuck big early on a particular day.

Needless to say everyone here knows how well that works. :ThmbDown:

At first I was reluctant to say I was playing a lot of tournaments. Some will say by not putting live money into the pools I'm not contributing to the betterment of the sport.

When I thought more about it. I got a bit selfish. Do I want to see horseracing prosper. Of course. It's kept a roof over my head and fed my family for 40 years. On the other side should that guilt me into playing in a form that's not best for me? I decided no.

As a person that has NEVER once turned away from helping the sport that's done so much for me. Charity, appearances, accessibility, interacting with the public and so on. I don't feel as though I'm betraying anyone.

That and when I saw DerbyWars being advertised on TVG I came out of the tournament players closet.

By far the biggest thing to happen to the NFL and all major sports are fantasy sites. Horse racing tournaments are the exact same concept.

And Oh BTW anybody that says it's not gambling is........ All together now! A ****ING MORON. :jump:

Trying to beat this game is not for the meek. It's a big boy challenge to say the least.

But as the immortal Fast Eddie Felson said. " Money won is ten times sweeter than money earned" I'm gonna stay at it. Right now tournaments are my best bet.

Next up the DEL MAR FALL CLASSIC this weekend Where The Turf Meets The Surf. $3000 live bankroll. Live!! That means it goes though the windows. See we do that too. :)

LET'S GO!!

[Stillriledup]

If you "really need the money"...then stay home. Serious play isn't for everybody. Gambling is the only place where so many of the "experts" are always in "need of money". :rolleyes:

But can't you make the case that the gambler who desperately needs the money will be more hungry in work ethic and discipline? If you have 'wiggle room' it's easy to form lazy habits.

[whodoyoulike]

If you "really need the money"...then stay home. Serious play isn't for everybody. Gambling is the only place where so many of the "experts" are always in "need of money". :rolleyes:

I was just using references from your example.

Was there a problem with that?

[thaskalos]

Even though I promised myself I wouldn't. This post brings up so many salient points I want to respond.

To me your words sound real and credible. The ebbs, flows and stress are the undoing of many excellent handicappers.

It's why even though you poo-pooed and belittled the concept of tournament play I think it can be a very good way for many people to go.

It allows player to handicap a myriad of different kinds of races and tracks. You cannot blow off a race just because it "seems" to easy (chalky) or too tough.

The financial rewards are REAL. Cap well get paid. Cap poorly you lose.

It gives the player MUCH more control over managing their bankroll.

We all have strengths and weaknesses. Over the years, when I've played the windows, I have a bad habit of going on tilt and chasing if stuck big early on a particular day.

Needless to say everyone here knows how well that works. :ThmbDown:

At first I was reluctant to say I was playing a lot of tournaments. Some will say by not putting live money into the pools I'm not contributing to the betterment of the sport.

When I thought more about it. I got a bit selfish. Do I want to see horseracing prosper. Of course. It's kept a roof over my head and fed my family for 40 years. On the other side should that guilt me into playing in a form that's not best for me? I decided no.

As a person that has NEVER once turned away from helping the sport that's done so much for me. Charity, appearances, accessibility, interacting with the public and so on. I don't feel as though I'm betraying anyone.

That and when I saw DerbyWars being advertised on TVG I came out of the tournament players closet.

By far the biggest thing to happen to the NFL and all major sports are fantasy sites. Horse racing tournaments are the exact same concept.

And Oh BTW anybody that says it's not gambling is........ All together now! A ****ING MORON. :jump:

Trying to beat this game is not for the meek. It's a big boy challenge to say the least.

But as the immortal Fast Eddie Felson said. " Money won is ten times sweeter than money earned" I'm gonna stay at it. Right now tournaments are my best bet.

Next up the DEL MAR FALL CLASSIC this weekend Where The Turf Meets The Surf. $3000 live bankroll. Live!! That means it goes though the windows. See wee do that too. :)

LET'S GO!!

Vic...I want you to know that I spent a sleepless night thinking about the rude manner in which I have addressed you on this board. I was totally wrong...and it's expecting too much for me to ask you to accept my apology.

I was exactly the sort of "classless clown" that I have grown to so despise...and I am sorry.

[thaskalos]

But can't you make the case that the gambler who desperately needs the money will be more hungry in work ethic and discipline? If you have 'wiggle room' it's easy to form lazy habits.

IMO...if the gambler is "hungry"...then he should take his money to a RESTAURANT.

[Saratoga_Mike]

IMO...if the gambler is "hungry"...then he should take his money to a RESTAURANT.

Thask, you're on a roll today.

[surfdog89]

:cool:

[thaskalos]

Thask, you're on a roll today.

Believe me...I speak from experience.

If I wrote my life's story in a book...I would be roundly criticized for being the most notorious liar.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Believe me...I speak from experience.

If I wrote my life's story in a book...I would be roundly criticized for being the most notorious liar.

I'd love to see it, and I suspect others would, too. Start a thread: "The Making of a Gambler."

[thaskalos]

I'd love to see it, and I suspect others would, too. Start a thread: "The Making of a Gambler."

If there is interest...maybe.

[raybo]

You have said that your long-term ROI sometimes exceeds 1.40. A 1.20 ROI is the MINIMUM that you are willing to accept...you have said here. And you've also stated that you can find at least 10 bets on average...while scanning several different racetracks...on the days that you decide to bet.

If you can do all that...then, not only are you "one of the best players out there"...but I hereby nominate you for the BEST PLAYER OF THE ENTIRE CIVILIZED WORLD award.

I guarantee that there is no one else out there who can do what you can do. NO ONE!

LOL - well I know of at least one other player, right here on this forum that does at least that well in ROI. We both specialize, I specialize by track and pass race types that my records have shown are net losing bets, and play win and superfecta only, he specialized by tracks and in turf and young horse races and plays win/win-place and exactas, but recently has started playing some dirt races also. Neither of us considers ourselves as the "best player of the entire civilized world". We just think of ourselves as players that play to our strengths and refuse to bet into net losing propositions. Sorry, but if we can do it, then others can do it. We just don't know who they are.

[thaskalos]

LOL - well I know of at least one other player, right here on this forum that does at least that well in ROI. We both specialize, I specialize by track and pass race types that my records have shown are net losing bets, and play win and superfecta only, he specialized by tracks and in turf and young horse races and plays win/win-place and exactas, but recently has started playing some dirt races also. Neither of us considers ourselves as the "best player of the entire civilized world". We just think of ourselves as players that play to our strengths and refuse to bet into net losing propositions. Sorry, but if we can do it, then others can do it. We just don't know who they are.

Mozart probably said the same thing...and he was wrong too.

[raybo]

It's gambling when I go to the track (I typically lose a small amount each year). If one has a long-term ROI in excess of 1.20 with a repeatable process in place, it's more akin to investing, imo.

And, that's exactly how I view horse racing, as an investment vehicle. I hate the word, and the idea of "gambling"! But, call it what you like, for me it's a word that helps define a mindset.

[raybo]

Mozart probably said the same thing...and he was wrong too.

Music and horse racing are not comparable, and of course, others did what he did and still are.

[menifee]

I started playing tournaments some time ago via Derby Wars, etc. and I will tell you a few things:

1. It has made me profitable. The vig is reduced substantially and that adds up.

2. It makes you really focus on a race. Before I would handicap a race for say 10-20 minutes. Now I can focus on a race for 30 minutes. Watch replays. Compare notes, etc. I don't have to worry about bet structure (vertical, horizontal, etc.). These are not cash games. All I have to worry about is the horse that is offering the best value. It makes the game a lot easier.

3. You don't get punished for action. 99% of handicappers I know overbet a card. There are few handicappers who have the discipline not to bet too many races. I certainly fell in that 99%. Since you have to pick a winner in a DW tournament in each race, you have a vested interest without having to gamble separately on a race.

4. There are a lot of good handicappers out there. Tournament play makes you realize how tough your competition is.

5. Tournament play emphasizes value over win %. You could hit 8 even money shots in a row. Does not matter if your competitor finds a bomb in the 9th. You are done. With regular play, 99% of handicappers care about their win percentage. They may not admit it, but they do. It's psychologically very difficult to lose 19 in a row even if you hit the 20-1 in the 20th race. With tournament play, you realize quickly that you cannot win betting valueless horses and it re-enforces that point when you dip back in the regular pools.

[Stillriledup]

Even though I promised myself I wouldn't. This post brings up so many salient points I want to respond.

To me your words sound real and credible. The ebbs, flows and stress are the undoing of many excellent handicappers.

It's why even though you poo-pooed and belittled the concept of tournament play I think it can be a very good way for many people to go.

It allows player to handicap a myriad of different kinds of races and tracks. You cannot blow off a race just because it "seems" to easy (chalky) or too tough.

The financial rewards are REAL. Cap well get paid. Cap poorly you lose.

It gives the player MUCH more control over managing their bankroll.

We all have strengths and weaknesses. Over the years, when I've played the windows, I have a bad habit of going on tilt and chasing if stuck big early on a particular day.

Needless to say everyone here knows how well that works. :ThmbDown:

At first I was reluctant to say I was playing a lot of tournaments. Some will say by not putting live money into the pools I'm not contributing to the betterment of the sport.

When I thought more about it. I got a bit selfish. Do I want to see horseracing prosper. Of course. It's kept a roof over my head and fed my family for 40 years. On the other side should that guilt me into playing in a form that's not best for me? I decided no.

As a person that has NEVER once turned away from helping the sport that's done so much for me. Charity, appearances, accessibility, interacting with the public and so on. I don't feel as though I'm betraying anyone.

That and when I saw DerbyWars being advertised on TVG I came out of the tournament players closet.

By far the biggest thing to happen to the NFL and all major sports are fantasy sites. Horse racing tournaments are the exact same concept.

And Oh BTW anybody that says it's not gambling is........ All together now! A ****ING MORON. :jump:

Trying to beat this game is not for the meek. It's a big boy challenge to say the least.

But as the immortal Fast Eddie Felson said. " Money won is ten times sweeter than money earned" I'm gonna stay at it. Right now tournaments are my best bet.

Next up the DEL MAR FALL CLASSIC this weekend Where The Turf Meets The Surf. $3000 live bankroll. Live!! That means it goes though the windows. See we do that too. :)

LET'S GO!!

Is this a secret contest? Can't seem to find out anything about it at DMR website.

[v j stauffer]

I started playing tournaments some time ago via Derby Wars, etc. and I will tell you a few things:

1. It has made me profitable. The vig is reduced substantially and that adds up.

2. It makes you really focus on a race. Before I would handicap a race for say 10-20 minutes. Now I can focus on a race for 30 minutes. Watch replays. Compare notes, etc. I don't have to worry about bet structure (vertical, horizontal, etc.). These are not cash games. All I have to worry about is the horse that is offering the best value. It makes the game a lot easier.

3. You don't get punished for action. 99% of handicappers I know overbet a card. There are few handicappers who have the discipline not to bet too many races. I certainly fell in that 99%. Since you have to pick a winner in a DW tournament in each race, you have a vested interest without having to gamble separately on a race.

4. There are a lot of good handicappers out there. Tournament play makes you realize how tough your competition is.

5. Tournament play emphasizes value over win %. You could hit 8 even money shots in a row. Does not matter if your competitor finds a bomb in the 9th. You are done. With regular play, 99% of handicappers care about their win percentage. They may not admit it, but they do. It's psychologically very difficult to lose 19 in a row even if you hit the 20-1 in the 20th race. With tournament play, you realize quickly that you cannot win betting valueless horses and it re-enforces that point when you dip back in the regular pools.


FABULOUS POST

Wish I could have said it that well. :ThmbUp:

Thanks!

[v j stauffer]

Vic...I want you to know that I spent a sleepless night thinking about the rude manner in which I have addressed you on this board. I was totally wrong...and it's expecting too much for me to ask you to accept my apology.

I was exactly the sort of "classless clown" that I have grown to so despise...and I am sorry.

It's already forgotten. Turf History. I'm sorry too. Let's move forward :cool:

[v j stauffer]

Is this a secret contest? Can't seem to find out anything about it at DMR website.

https://www.dmtc.com/calendar/detail/novchallenge

[Stillriledup]

https://www.dmtc.com/calendar/detail/novchallenge
Gracias :ThmbUp:

[v j stauffer]

Gracias :ThmbUp:

Entries are still open. Why not get out of your lair, man up and come show us the real SRU?

We're like shootin ducks in a barrel.

Easy money for the taking.

Talk about bragging rights!

[Stillriledup]

Entries are still open. Why not get out of your lair, man up and come show us the real SRU?

We're like shootin ducks in a barrel.

Easy money for the taking.

Talk about bragging rights!

It does seem easy, I mean, If you can win how hard can it be? :D

J/k

Maybe someday.

[v j stauffer]

It does seem easy, I mean, If you can win how hard can it be? :D

J/k

Maybe someday.

I never said I can win. I'm just happy to have earned my way in. Hoping to make a respectable showing.

[Stillriledup]

I never said I can win. I'm just happy to have earned my way in. Hoping to make a respectable showing.

Forgive me, I was just lumping all these tourneys together, the one you won and this one.

Is there a list of mandatory races yet?

[burnsy]

I started playing tournaments some time ago via Derby Wars, etc. and I will tell you a few things:

1. It has made me profitable. The vig is reduced substantially and that adds up.

2. It makes you really focus on a race. Before I would handicap a race for say 10-20 minutes. Now I can focus on a race for 30 minutes. Watch replays. Compare notes, etc. I don't have to worry about bet structure (vertical, horizontal, etc.). These are not cash games. All I have to worry about is the horse that is offering the best value. It makes the game a lot easier.

3. You don't get punished for action. 99% of handicappers I know overbet a card. There are few handicappers who have the discipline not to bet too many races. I certainly fell in that 99%. Since you have to pick a winner in a DW tournament in each race, you have a vested interest without having to gamble separately on a race.

4. There are a lot of good handicappers out there. Tournament play makes you realize how tough your competition is.

5. Tournament play emphasizes value over win %. You could hit 8 even money shots in a row. Does not matter if your competitor finds a bomb in the 9th. You are done. With regular play, 99% of handicappers care about their win percentage. They may not admit it, but they do. It's psychologically very difficult to lose 19 in a row even if you hit the 20-1 in the 20th race. With tournament play, you realize quickly that you cannot win betting valueless horses and it re-enforces that point when you dip back in the regular pools.

Great post! I might have to check out Derby Wars. Never played it. I've been in other ones though and have tried to qualify for the "final". I've been in the money and have won stuff but never high enough to go to the Las Vegas Final.

Everything you say is my style of gambling. I shoot for scores not a winning percentage. I wrote about this in my Saratoga selections this year. If I have 4 or 5 days like that, I make money. I only bet 5 races a day unless its a big Saturday. I don't see how people have all this horse action and say they win. All the guys I know that play like that, can't leave with a profit.

That being said that's my downfall in these tournaments. These people can see more races than I can. I am a control freak. If I don't like the race, its really hard for me to find something good. The best players out there are these people. You are right about that. They have a wider scope than I do because I am weak when I don't feel like I have an advantage in said race.

That's how I play. I love finding value and I love grass racing. But am not as rounded and grounded as the real tournament pros. IMO, in the NHC and some local Capital OTB deals and some of the folks that win these things are the best around. Just by reading this I can tell you have learned a lot because its 100% accurate. All the points you made have helped me win at some meets and years. I got to work on races that I don't like and handicap them better to win one.

[thaskalos]

It's hard to take a game seriously, when the races to be wagered on are not selected by the individual player.

[cbp]

It's hard to take a game seriously, when the races to be wagered on are not selected by the individual player.

Is a good hitter only one who gets to pick who pitches to him and what pitches they can throw? A good hitter should be able to hit anyone and any pitch

[appistappis]

It's hard to take a game seriously, when the races to be wagered on are not selected by the individual player.

exactly correct thask......these tournaments like in poker are for the players that cannot cut it at the windows.

[Stillriledup]

It's hard to take a game seriously, when the races to be wagered on are not selected by the individual player.

How does that hurt the superior player ? Is this somehow an advantage to the less skilled capper?

[v j stauffer]

Forgive me, I was just lumping all these tourneys together, the one you won and this one.

Is there a list of mandatory races yet?

DEL MAR races both days.

[thaskalos]

Is a good hitter only one who gets to pick who pitches to him and what pitches they can throw?

Proper race selection is one of the competent player's most important skills. If the owners of these sites had any idea of how to properly run their business...then they would let the PLAYERS select the races that they'd like to wager on.

Two players put their money up...they are handed a predetermined bankroll...they select any 10/20 races that they like...and they bet in whatever manner they choose. And the one with the most money at the end wins.

That's a "real" tournament. The rest is HORSESHIT...in my opinion.

[v j stauffer]

exactly correct thask......these tournaments like in poker are for the players that cannot cut it at the windows.

It's a "live" money tournament. With churn the leaders will probably put between 25 and 30k of "their" money, cash, thru the windows over the two days.

Seems to me that should cut it.

[ManU918]

exactly correct thask......these tournaments like in poker are for the players that cannot cut it at the windows.

Such a horrible comparison. Tournaments and cash are two totally different games. Trying to compare cash and tournaments is like comparing checkers to chess. Saying that one plays the other because they cant cut it is absolutely absurd.

[v j stauffer]

Such a horrible comparison. Tournaments and cash are two totally different games. Trying to compare cash and tournaments is like comparing checkers to chess. Saying that one plays the other because they cant cut it is absolutely absurd.

Some, like the one this weekend at Del Mar is a bit of a hybrid of the two. Yes we are playing only the Del Mar races.

But, the bets are most assuredly cash.

[thaskalos]

Some, like the one this weekend at Del Mar is a bit of a hybrid of the two. Yes we are playing only the Del Mar races.

But, the bets are most assuredly cash.
When you say "cash"...what do you mean? You use the tournament entry fee as a bankroll?

[ManU918]

Some, like the one this weekend at Del Mar is a bit of a hybrid of the two. Yes we are playing only the Del Mar races.

But, the bets are most assuredly cash.

I know players who are great in both cash and tournaments and I know players who are strictly focused on one or the other.... But for someone to claim that tournament players play tournaments because they cant cut it in cash is ridiculous. Most players who play tournaments fund their tournament buy-ins by the profits they make at the windows.

[v j stauffer]

When you say "cash"...what do you mean? You use the tournament entry fee as a bankroll?

https://www.dmtc.com/calendar/detail/novchallenge

The entry fee is $4000. $1000 goes towards the prize awards.

The other $3000 we play as a live bankroll.

Del Mar keeps nothing. Their benefit is 100 players putting large bets into their pools for two days.

The players with the largest bankroll's after the final race Sunday are the winners.

I played the one at DM in the summer. It was bigger. $6000 to enter.

Here are the results................I was lucky enough to finish 5th.

Very big fun!

https://www.dmtc.com/media/news/streiff-wins-more-than-100000-in-the-july-25-26-del-mar-handicapping-challenge-394

[thaskalos]

https://www.dmtc.com/calendar/detail/novchallenge

The entry fee is $4000. $1000 goes towards the prize awards.

The other $3000 we play as a live bankroll.

Del Mar keeps nothing. Their benefit is 100 players putting large bets into their pools for two days.

The players with the largest bankroll's after the final race Sunday are the winners.

I played the one at DM in the summer. It was bigger. $6000 to enter.

Here are the results................I was lucky enough to finish 5th.

Very big fun!

https://www.dmtc.com/media/news/streiff-wins-more-than-100000-in-the-july-25-26-del-mar-handicapping-challenge-394

Why is it so difficult to find any useful information on this freaking site? I became a member yesterday, and I am searching the site all day to find out some additional information...but I can't find anything.

How do you place your bets...all at once, or a race at a time?

Do you get to see the race selections BEFORE you enter the tournament, or only after...on those tournaments that have multi-track entries?

[v j stauffer]

Why is it so difficult to find any useful information on this freaking site? I became a member yesterday, and I am searching the site all day to find out some additional information...but I can't find anything.

How do you place your bets...all at once, or a race at a time?

Do you get to see the race selections BEFORE you enter the tournament, or only after...on those tournaments that have multi-track entries?

The link from Del Mar is the first of the two in my previous post.

It answers the questions you've just asked.

[thaskalos]

The link from Del Mar is the first of the two in my previous post.

It answers the questions you've just asked.

I saw the link Vic, but, regretfully...I can't make it down to Del Mar this weekend. Where can I find some information on the regular heads-up online tournaments?

[v j stauffer]

I saw the link Vic, but, regretfully...I can't make it down to Del Mar this weekend. Where can I find some information on the regular heads-up online tournaments?

DerbyWars.com

[thaskalos]

DerbyWars.com
Thank you. :ThmbUp:

[Mulerider]

I started playing tournaments some time ago via Derby Wars, etc. and I will tell you a few things:


5. Tournament play emphasizes value over win %. You could hit 8 even money shots in a row. Does not matter if your competitor finds a bomb in the 9th. You are done. With regular play, 99% of handicappers care about their win percentage. They may not admit it, but they do. It's psychologically very difficult to lose 19 in a row even if you hit the 20-1 in the 20th race. With tournament play, you realize quickly that you cannot win betting valueless horses and it re-enforces that point when you dip back in the regular pools.

I play Derby Wars quite a bit because I live in Texas and it's not always convenient for me to drive an hour to LAD to bet at the windows. I think the tournament play has helped my game quite a bit.

I play both lockdown and non-lockdown contests. The problem with lockdowns is that you are at the mercy of the ML oddsmaker's accuracy; I automatically assume that the favorite will go off at much less than his ML. Of course, your opponent is in the same boat.

I'm fairly new at this, but it seems to me that in theory it should be easier to show a long-term profit with tournaments because you don't have to beat the races; you only have to beat your opponent. And there have been a couple of times when I've won a tournament with a score that would have resulted in a loss had I been betting those races live.

Personally, I prefer betting at the windows, but I do enjoy the tournaments. Apparently the Texas legislature isn't aware of them yet, or it would already be illegal for Texans to participate.


(https://www.derbywars.com/tournaments/200791#6)

[Stillriledup]

I play Derby Wars quite a bit because I live in Texas and it's not always convenient for me to drive an hour to LAD to bet at the windows. I think the tournament play has helped my game quite a bit.

I play both lockdown and non-lockdown contests. The problem with lockdowns is that you are at the mercy of the ML oddsmaker's accuracy; I automatically assume that the favorite will go off at much less than his ML. Of course, your opponent is in the same boat.

I'm fairly new at this, but it seems to me that in theory it should be easier to show a long-term profit with tournaments because you don't have to beat the races; you only have to beat your opponent. And there have been a couple of times when I've won a tournament with a score that would have resulted in a loss had I been betting those races live.

Personally, I prefer betting at the windows, but I do enjoy the tournaments. Apparently the Texas legislature isn't aware of them yet, or it would already be illegal for Texans to participate.


(https://www.derbywars.com/tournaments/200791#6)

What does the ML have to do with anything?

[v j stauffer]

What does the ML have to do with anything?

Don't be such a punk ball buster.

You're such an asshole.

The guy spent his time to post about the pros and cons of tournament play.

Factored in some of his personal experiences.

Here's a guy with only a few posts trying to join the site and you're nit picking at a couple words.

He even backed it up by saying. Well I guess everyone has to deal with it.

I am so ****ing sick of you sitting there and taking potshots at every tiny little thing. Just cuz you've got nothing to do with your tiny little thing.

When you've got something salient to contribute please do so. The other 23:55 of the day when we all know you're watching and lurking. Just read and try to learn something.

I am so ****ING tired of your shit.

Very sorry Mulerider. Don't let this jerkoff discourage you. :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad:

[Stillriledup]

Don't be such a punk ball buster.

You're such an asshole.

The guy spent his time to post about the pros and cons of tournament play.

Factored in some of his personal experiences.

Here's a guy with only a few posts trying to join the site and you're nit picking at a couple words.

He even backed it up by saying. Well I guess everyone has to deal with it.

I am so ****ing sick of you sitting there and taking potshots at every tiny little thing. Just cuz you've got nothing to do with your tiny little thing.

When you've got something salient to contribute please do so. The other 23:55 of the day when we all know you're watching and lurking. Just read and try to learn something.

I am so ****ING tired of your shit.

Very sorry Mulerider. Don't let this jerkoff discourage you. :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad:

Wow what's this about? I just wanted to know what the ML had to do with derby wars, it was a legit question, I'm not familiar with the site or how it works.

Can I not ask a question or post without your approval?

[cj]

Don't be such a punk ball buster.

You're such an asshole.

The guy spent his time to post about the pros and cons of tournament play.

Factored in some of his personal experiences.

Here's a guy with only a few posts trying to join the site and you're nit picking at a couple words.

He even backed it up by saying. Well I guess everyone has to deal with it.

I am so ****ing sick of you sitting there and taking potshots at every tiny little thing. Just cuz you've got nothing to do with your tiny little thing.

When you've got something salient to contribute please do so. The other 23:55 of the day when we all know you're watching and lurking. Just read and try to learn something.

I am so ****ING tired of your shit.

Very sorry Mulerider. Don't let this jerkoff discourage you. :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad:

Was SRU not understanding what a lockdown contest is? I don't really know either. Of course most of us would do a little research on our own before asking, but then SRU would have to work harder to post in every thread.

[v j stauffer]

Was SRU not understanding what a lockdown contest is? I don't really know either. Of course most of us would do a little research on our own before asking, but then SRU would have to work harder to post in every thread.

The difference between Lockdown and Bullet is that Lockdown requires selections from every contestant on all tournament to be in BEFORE the first contest race begins.

Live, or Bullet you go race by race and can put your picks all the way up to post time.

[Mulerider]

What does the ML have to do with anything?

Let's say you enter a six-race lockdown contest. Your picks for all six races must be submitted before race 1 post time. I suppose there are players that can accurately estimate what a horse's final odds at post time will be just by handicapping a race. I'm not one of those players!

Lockdown or not, in my experience picking value horses usually wins the tournaments unless the day is very chalky.

[PICSIX]

exactly correct thask......these tournaments like in poker are for the players that cannot cut it at the windows.

Wrong answer. The following are the results of the BC Challenge. Beginning bankroll of $7,500 (real money...wagered "at the windows")

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1899985&postcount=7

[burnsy]

With the amount of people playing these things. Chalk players have not a chance. You gotta have a hell of a day to take down some of these things. Basically, most public handicappers don't have a chance because they look at their percentage. ROI is the only way you can win most of the days. I don't understand how people think these people can't cut it at the windows, if you can win millions in a contest, you can pick pretty good horses. It also helps you play better when you do bet. Anyone that comes on the internet and says they are winning betting all these races at all these different tracks.....is most likely lying. I posted like 2/3 of my races I bet at Saratoga this year, just so people would not say I was red boarding. I pretty much proved I can win for a meet doing what I do. Did the same for a football season. Some people talk about how good they are but you never see their plays....that's what cracks me up on the internet. People that think the tournament players can't win at horse racing are not accurate. Its not a coincidence that some of the same faces are in there every year. Is their luck involved at times? There always is in any kind of gambling.

[PICSIX]

Thank you. :ThmbUp:

Menu at horsetourneys:

https://m.horsetourneys.com

[menifee]

My issue with lockdown games is that you really cannot determine value because you don't know what the odds of the horse will be at post and you have to select all entries prior to post. ML and its accuracy becomes really important. In a lot of places, ML are poorly derived (e.g., Remington). To play these games effectively, you need to make your own ML (handicap from the public's perspective) and then determine where you might find value.

Cash games are fun, but intense. It incorporates bankroll management and betting structure which most players are not good at. As I mentioned above, that gives you less time to handicap a race and I find that frustrating. My issue with cash tournaments is that to win those tournaments rules regarding bankroll management go out the windows in the last few races if you want to win the tournament. The winner of the BCBC rode a $4000 exacta box of the two euros in the turf this year. It was a huge percentage of his bankroll. No rational player would ever risk that much of his bankroll on one play. But he was all in to win the tournament.

[PICSIX]

My issue with lockdown games is that you really cannot determine value because you don't know what the odds of the horse will be at post and you have to select all entries prior to post. ML and its accuracy becomes really important. In a lot of places, ML are poorly derived (e.g., Remington). To play these games effectively, you need to make your own ML (handicap from the public's perspective) and then determine where you might find value.

Cash games are fun, but intense. It incorporates bankroll management and betting structure which most players are not good at. As I mentioned above, that gives you less time to handicap a race and I find that frustrating. My issue with cash tournaments is that to win those tournaments rules regarding bankroll management go out the windows in the last few races if you want to win the tournament. The winner of the BCBC rode a $4000 exacta box of the two euros in the turf this year. It was a huge percentage of his bankroll. No rational player would ever risk that much of his bankroll on one play. But he was all in to win the tournament.

Actually, in this instance, it's par for the course for this winner. According to his friends that is how he plays. He won a similar tournament earlier in the year. Blood Horse has a couple of write-ups about him.

[Oracle]

Menifee: good lockdown players will be pretty accurate in both their assessment of each horses chances in a race, as well as their assessment of how the race will be bet by the public. They merge these two assessments to make their selections based on their risk analysis for each race, and they also have a target score in mind that will typically win that format.

The ML is not good enough for top players to use in making these judgments.

[ReplayRandall]

The ML is not good enough for top players to use in making these judgments.

Two tools that are needed for success, your own line and the mute button....

[BetPTC]

Chris Larmey is a 1%'er and one of the best handicappers we know. For that reason, we give away his Spot Plays (8 races every Saturday) to our members at BetPTC.com.

Chris is a multiple NHC qualifier and a representative to the horseplayers on the NHC Tour board. Earlier this year he went to Washington D.C. to fight for legislation lifting the ridiculous $600 threshold.

[v j stauffer]

My issue with lockdown games is that you really cannot determine value because you don't know what the odds of the horse will be at post and you have to select all entries prior to post. ML and its accuracy becomes really important. In a lot of places, ML are poorly derived (e.g., Remington). To play these games effectively, you need to make your own ML (handicap from the public's perspective) and then determine where you might find value.

Cash games are fun, but intense. It incorporates bankroll management and betting structure which most players are not good at. As I mentioned above, that gives you less time to handicap a race and I find that frustrating. My issue with cash tournaments is that to win those tournaments rules regarding bankroll management go out the windows in the last few races if you want to win the tournament. The winner of the BCBC rode a $4000 exacta box of the two euros in the turf this year. It was a huge percentage of his bankroll. No rational player would ever risk that much of his bankroll on one play. But he was all in to win the tournament.

What I do, especially since I may be playing more than one live tourney at a time. Is put the entire card worth of picks in advance. Then as post time nears re-visit that race for any late changes I might want to make.

[Stillriledup]

Let's say you enter a six-race lockdown contest. Your picks for all six races must be submitted before race 1 post time. I suppose there are players that can accurately estimate what a horse's final odds at post time will be just by handicapping a race. I'm not one of those players!

Lockdown or not, in my experience picking value horses usually wins the tournaments unless the day is very chalky.

When you talked ML I was under the impression that a player could somehow benefit if they were able to assess the ML guy was wrong, but now I'm seeing you just are saying dont count on the ML to be accurate.

At the tracks I play, I feel I'm fairly strong at predicting off odds so I got excited that there might be a way to somehow cash in on the ML guys inaccuracy.

Thanks.

[RunForTheRoses]

What I do, especially since I may be playing more than one live tourney at a time. Is put the entire card worth of picks in advance. Then as post time nears re-visit that race for any late changes I might want to make.

That is the way I play too, not just to see how the track is playing, etc but your early picks might not get you there if others bombed away early so you might switch to longshots, conversely if you are doing well and you think your value pick is a little too iffy you might change to a lower priced but more likely winner.

[RunForTheRoses]

Do any of these sites have a way for a private group, for instance PA Members can have their own tournaments/contest? I remember Poker Stars had a way for groups to have their own room/table. I would like to play against y'all for practice, bragging rights, some possible profit, and just fun.

The contests here were fun but with real dough on the line would be funner.

[RunForTheRoses]

At Horse Tourneys Lockdown is called Pick and Pray.

[menifee]

Do any of these sites have a way for a private group, for instance PA Members can have their own tournaments/contest? I remember Poker Stars had a way for groups to have their own room/table. I would like to play against y'all for practice, bragging rights, some possible profit, and just fun.

The contests here were fun but with real dough on the line would be funner.


I wish these sites would create that feature - it would be fun to take on everyone here for real money. There are some good handicappers here and it would be a challenge and personally satisfying if you know you beat the best of the best.

[no breathalyzer]

I wish these sites would create that feature - it would be fun to take on everyone here for real money. There are some good handicappers here and it would be a challenge and personally satisfying if you know you beat the best of the best.

it would be cool even tho it pays the same

[chaz63]

Internationally especially, Candice Hare deserves a mention IMO.

[v j stauffer]

At Horse Tourneys Lockdown is called Pick and Pray.

Yeah. I think they copywrited that.

While I tend to migrate towards DerbyWars.

Horsetourneys is excellent as well.

[Stillriledup]

At Horse Tourneys Lockdown is called Pick and Pray.

I'm pretty sure I've said the term pick and pray decades ago, copywriting it is a different story though :D

[v j stauffer]

I wish these sites would create that feature - it would be fun to take on everyone here for real money. There are some good handicappers here and it would be a challenge and personally satisfying if you know you beat the best of the best.

That would be VERY BIG fun.

The tech support guy at DerbyWars is a guy named Brett.

Very sharp.

I'll ask him about it.

[no breathalyzer]

Binocular Rentals at big A.. did you guys know that?

[Capper Al]

The best handicappers won't have time for this thread. They would be spending their time making money.

[no breathalyzer]

The best handicappers won't have time for this thread. They would be spending their time making money.

why you here then :lol:

[Capper Al]

why you here then :lol:

Because I have time. Lol

[PaceAdvantage]

That would be VERY BIG fun.

The tech support guy at DerbyWars is a guy named Brett.

Very sharp.

I'll ask him about it.I've been in discussions with DerbyWars for a while now...I believe a contest or two is coming...more details when I have them...but rest assured, I've been on the case even before you started pimping them in here... :lol:

[v j stauffer]

I've been in discussions with DerbyWars for a while now...I believe a contest or two is coming...more details when I have them...but rest assured, I've been on the case even before you started pimping them in here... :lol:

Pimps get paid. AND get to wear really fabulous hats.

My motives are for the greater good.

[Robert Fischer]

years ago there was a horseplayer who frequented the boards who was known as 'horse racing's Charlie Sheen' or 'big ATM'.

Haven't seen that gentleman posting lately. :liar:

[PaceAdvantage]

Pretty sure he passed away many years ago...

[Robert Fischer]

Pretty sure he passed away many years ago...

yes, I hear he was getting up in age...