Animal Kingdom's future?

[Casino]

Hats off to Shackleford he earned it.As far as AK will he be a better horse on turf or do you keep him on dirt?

[sonnyp]

Hats off to Shackleford he earned it.As far as AK will he be a better horse on turf or do you keep him on dirt?



without a shot at the triple crown, it'll be interesting to see if they go to the belmont.

[Robert Fischer]

100% chance YES if he's fine and eating up.

Belmont would be a nice chance to hammer home what a tremendously solid classic distance animal this is.

as a lover of The Game - have to hope AK goes along with MOH,SHAC,DI,BrlSpd. Great race by todays standards

HASKEL DANGEROUS

CLASSIC NEXT GOAL W/ 1PREP AFTER BELMONT STAKES

FINALLY- he has potential to develop into a grade3 or even above older Turf Horse over CLassic Distances in REAL TURF RACES. He could run in some big turf races this year and would be respectable(not the ARC or something goofy, but picking his spots). However, common sense would lead to believe that the greatest probability is retiring to stud after the Breeder's Cup Classic. The Belmont is a good race to run before his pre CLASSIC layoff where he will run one prep and then run a good solid race in the Classic.

[Tom]

I doubt Motion makes him run back so soon. To what end?
Ther are far beter race coming up later on - with no TC, the Belmont serves no purpose other than go against his method of training horses.

[sonnyp]

I doubt Motion makes him run back so soon. To what end?
Ther are far beter race coming up later on - with no TC, the Belmont serves no purpose other than go against his method of training horses.



that's what i was thinking. 3 races in 5 weeks, even though the 1 1/2 miles would seem to be to his liking, is a tough grind. no triple crown at stake.....we'll see.

[PaceAdvantage]

After Shackleford's performance today, I'm not sure AK's connections should be so confident, even going 12 furlongs.

Shack never was passed by AK, even in the gallop out...this after Shackleford pressed the crap out of a 22 3/5 opening quarter, all the while AK languished in second-to-last place.

[elysiantraveller]

After Shackleford's performance today, I'm not sure AK's connections should be so confident, even going 12 furlongs.

Shack never was passed by AK, even in the gallop out...this after Shackleford pressed the crap out of a 22 3/5 opening quarter, all the while AK languished in second-to-last place.

I don't see either one going into the Belmont.

And I certainly don't think AK is the better horse. Maybe at 12 panels... maybe.

[sonnyp]

After Shackleford's performance today, I'm not sure AK's connections should be so confident, even going 12 furlongs.

Shack never was passed by AK, even in the gallop out...this after Shackleford pressed the crap out of a 22 3/5 opening quarter, all the while AK languished in second-to-last place.


i absolutely agree. AK had SHACK in his sights at the 1/16 pole and should have been able to get bye him,especially after the early pressure and fractions SACK endured, but he didn't.

horses that run the style race AK ran today, traditionally, don't do well in the belmont.

[thaskalos]

i absolutely agree. AK had SHACK in his sights at the 1/16 pole and should have been able to get bye him,especially after the early pressure and fractions SACK endured, but he didn't.
Very logical...but then again, a similar argument could have been made AGAINST Sheckleford, coming out of the Derby. And we all saw what happened today...

I say that we should not look at only one race when making up our mind about things...

[Spalding No!]

Another trend promoting further decline in top class racing:

Top 3yos electing to skip Triple Crown races.

Arguably, Nehro, had he fired a similar effort as his last 3, could have won today's Preakness.

With the inconsistency of this crop, either Animal Kingdom or Shackleford could essentially lock in the 3yo championship with a win in the Belmont Stakes. Both ought to be there assuming good physical condition.

[Jasonm921]

Spading...absolutely correct. Out of respect for the sport and if the horses are sound...run them in the Belmont.

[toetoe]

I think AK has plenty of tactical speed. The post is why he was so far back early. It unfolded like a harness race --- the inside speedballs got position; the outside runners lost position early. I don't see a problem for AK in the Belmont. That said, kudos to lightly raced Shackleford. Van Nuys. :ThmbUp:

[menifee]

Spading...absolutely correct. Out of respect for the sport and if the horses are sound...run them in the Belmont.

Neither of them will run in the Belmont. I just can't see it. Right now, Nehro's race to lose.

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Arguably, Nehro, had he fired a similar effort as his last 3, could have won today's Preakness.

Arguably, it would have been an awefully slim chance he would have been able to put the same effort forward having been in this race. That would have made 4 races in 8 weeks for this horse. Hard to ask for his best effort. Still do not even understand why he was being considered for the race from the get go.

I personally would not be surprised to see AK skip the preakness. I am not saying he will or wont skip it. Just saying if he does skip, I will not be shocked. They have a ton of options with this horse moving forward. He is young and lightly raced. You see a lot of horses disappear every year after the TC races. I am sure their decision will be based solely on what is best for the horse and not the hype of the race or money. They can pretty much go anywhere they want with this horse.

[keithw84]

With the inconsistency of this crop, either Animal Kingdom or Shackleford could essentially lock in the 3yo championship with a win in the Belmont Stakes.

When was the last time a horse won 2 of the 3 and didn't win the 3yo championship?

[Spalding No!]

Arguably, it would have been an awefully slim chance he would have been able to put the same effort forward having been in this race. That would have made 4 races in 8 weeks for this horse.

Well, they said his most recent work was better than his Derby work, so that suggests he was still in form.

Hard to ask for his best effort. Still do not even understand why he was being considered for the race from the get go.

Because its one of the Classic races in America.

[Spalding No!]

When was the last time a horse won 2 of the 3 and didn't win the 3yo championship?

Maybe Tabasco Cat in '94.

[BIG49010]

I wouldn't be surprised if they go for Mid American triple on grass

[Capper Al]

After Shackleford's performance today, I'm not sure AK's connections should be so confident, even going 12 furlongs.

Shack never was passed by AK, even in the gallop out...this after Shackleford pressed the crap out of a 22 3/5 opening quarter, all the while AK languished in second-to-last place.

The extra distance should favor AK.

[gm10]

The Belmont, then a summer break followed two races in August-September-October and finally the Classic. He's the best of the 3yo's without fitness issues. He got beaten by his own jockey yesterday imo.

[keithw84]

Maybe Tabasco Cat in '94.

Good call. Looked it up, and before him, it was Riva Ridge in '72.

[Si2see]

I think Motion will skip the belmont and come to colonial downs for the Virginia Derby

[Leparoux]

After Shackleford's performance today, I'm not sure AK's connections should be so confident, even going 12 furlongs.

Shack never was passed by AK, even in the gallop out...this after Shackleford pressed the crap out of a 22 3/5 opening quarter, all the while AK languished in second-to-last place.

Why would they not feel confident? Regardless of the gallop out, another 16th and he would have won in my opinion. As it has already been shown, Shack pressed the 22 pace but then they really slowed up after the quick opening quarter. Are they a 'lock' to win? Of course not, nobody is. But they have every right to feel confident.

[sonnyp]

NY DAILY NEWS (http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/more_sports/2011/05/22/2011-05-22_preakness_winner_shackelford_and_kentucky_derby _champ_animal_kingdom_to_race_in_.html) reporting "rubber match"!

[gm10]

NY DAILY NEWS (http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/more_sports/2011/05/22/2011-05-22_preakness_winner_shackelford_and_kentucky_derby _champ_animal_kingdom_to_race_in_.html) reporting "rubber match"!

That would be great. I'd certainly watch that race.

[Tom]

Pretty much a BS story missing facts. The News is looking for an article, facts be damned.

Neither trainer committed and both pretty much said what was expected at the time.

I doubt very much both will show up, if either one does. I make it a long shot both are there. And odds on we will see a third different horse win no matter what.

[cj]

The Belmont is ripe for an upset.

[FantasticDan]

Don't really see what's "BS" about the story.. Bloodhorse had a similar article. Both trainers seem very much inclined to head to Belmont, owners and horses condition permitting.

[sonnyp]

The Belmont is ripe for an upset.


there are always "gators in the weeds" in elmont, long island

[PaceAdvantage]

I say if they're both healthy, they should both go to the Belmont. There's plenty of time to rest up between the Belmont and the Haskell for Shackleford. I'd have to think the Haskell fits this horse like nobody's business....

[sonnyp]

the publicity has to try to keep the interest up for the race that suffers a blow when the triple crown is not at stake.

[PaceAdvantage]

If both AK and Shack show up for the Belmont, there will be plenty of interest. Not as much as a TC of course, but plenty nonetheless.

[Pell Mell]

Master Of Hounds was said to be pointing for the Belmont and maybe Alternation. I would give both a shot at winning.

[Hanover1]

Assuming AK comes out of this last one sound and eager, I would go to Belmont, but I'm not the owner/trainer. Nothing looks better on paper than missing a Triple Crown by a half a horse vs ducking it and moving on. There is also a good case to skip it and be well prepared for another big race further down the road. Depends on who calls the shots and has final word. Hopefully a mutual consensus does whats best for the horse, and it may be to skip Belmont and move forward. Its a great game when faced with these kinds of tough calls......

[sonnyp]

Assuming AK comes out of this last one sound and eager, I would go to Belmont, but I'm not the owner/trainer. Nothing looks better on paper than missing a Triple Crown by a half a horse vs ducking it and moving on. There is also a good case to skip it and be well prepared for another big race further down the road. Depends on who calls the shots and has final word. Hopefully a mutual consensus does whats best for the horse, and it may be to skip Belmont and move forward. Its a great game when faced with these kinds of tough calls......


i know zero about breeding. i understand he's by a brazillian stallion out of a german mare ? is his pedigree dirt or turf ? he obviously handles all surfaces but what type races would do most to enhance his value at stud. i know he's already got the big one, the derby, in the bag and a second in the preakness is icing on the cake.

i was at the auction at belmont the afternoon zito and company sold go for gin. it was the first time, i believe, a derby winner was sold at public auction although it was like a partnership split since one of the owners bought him for himself.

interesting that leading up to the auction, he hadn't won in some period of time. his first start after the auction, he jumps up and wins for the "new connections". i think it was a grade I in maryland.

[Spalding No!]

i was at the auction at belmont the afternoon zito and company sold go for gin. it was the first time, i believe, a derby winner was sold at public auction although it was like a partnership split since one of the owners bought him for himself.

interesting that leading up to the auction, he hadn't won in some period of time. his first start after the auction, he jumps up and wins for the "new connections". i think it was a grade I in maryland.

You're thinking of Strike The Gold.

[sonnyp]

You're thinking of Strike The Gold.

you're correct. it was strike the gold. sorry

[Tom]

Don't really see what's "BS" about the story.. Bloodhorse had a similar article. Both trainers seem very much inclined to head to Belmont, owners and horses condition permitting.

It's BS because the headline says they are to race - and that, at this time, in not confirmed.

[OFFandRUNNING10]

[QUOTE=Spalding No!]Well, they said his most recent work was better than his Derby work, so that suggests he was still in form.

Asking a horse to go an average 4furlongs and asking to run a career race at a 1 3/16 miles are far different. The point is, the horse is up and coming ... ran 3 big races in 6 weeks. to ask him to come back in another 2 and run an even better race than the prior 3 is kinda asinine.

[Producer]

As I posted in an earlier thread about AK's future, I still think he is a much better horse on grass/synthetics than dirt. He has very little early speed and makes a huge run at the end. Not Dialed In-type non existent early speed, but still very little early speed. That type of style doesn't bode well for top level races on dirt.

If they intend to keep him in training into next year, i think they should run him in some top level grass or synthetic races the rest of the way, maybe the BC Classic at the end of the year since he ran well on the CD dirt already, and then point to the Dubai World Cup next year.

[Spalding No!]

Asking a horse to go an average 4furlongs and asking to run a career race at a 1 3/16 miles are far different.

How far different? 5.5 furlongs?

The point is, the horse is up and coming ... ran 3 big races in 6 weeks. to ask him to come back in another 2 and run an even better race than the prior 3 is kinda asinine.

That's a bit harsh. I understand that Animal Kingdom and Mucho Macho Man running big races in the Derby off 6 weeks layoffs proves that all those Derby performers from past years who won or placed off 2-4 week layoffs were doing wrong, but give me a break.

[Leparoux]

As I posted in an earlier thread about AK's future, I still think he is a much better horse on grass/synthetics than dirt. He has very little early speed and makes a huge run at the end. Not Dialed In-type non existent early speed, but still very little early speed. That type of style doesn't bode well for top level races on dirt.

If they intend to keep him in training into next year, i think they should run him in some top level grass or synthetic races the rest of the way, maybe the BC Classic at the end of the year since he ran well on the CD dirt already, and then point to the Dubai World Cup next year.
:D He won the Derby and lost the Preakness by a half length. He is lacking in early speed but has GREAT tactical speed. I'm not sure how you can run 1st and 2nd in the first two legs of the TC and have a style that doesn't bode well for dirt.

[Robert Fischer]

hes the best of a very solid crop and has a great pedigree.

with the Derby win he's playing for maximum stud value.

should draw away in the belmont and remove some of the doubts from the breeders who are not handicappers.
unless he's retired early he probably runs in the Classic.
The haskell could be tough for Animal Kingdom to win.

If he would stay in training the sky is the limit.
He could run in the big 10furlong dirt races and pick his spots
as a 4yo pick his spots for a few big turf races, win the DWC, run last in the arc etc...

he'll make a very good broodmare sire

[Robert Fischer]

Master Of Hounds

think i read he went back to Ireland and wasn't pointed to Belmont

wish he would. Had a ton of horse in the derby and would add to an already good belmont stakes field.

[OFFandRUNNING10]

That's a bit harsh. I understand that Animal Kingdom and Mucho Macho Man running big races in the Derby off 6 weeks layoffs proves that all those Derby performers from past years who won or placed off 2-4 week layoffs were doing wrong, but give me a break.[/QUOTE]

My theory has nothing to do with AK or MMM ... I do not know why you are bringing them or their layoffs into this. I am simply stating asking a horse to run a career best race in 4 races in an 8 week span is asking an awful lot and is unlikely. Your thought is that since a horse posted a 4f work in 50.8 that he is in top form and ready to run a career best race?!? Agree to disagree i guess...

[OFFandRUNNING10]

It looks like both AK and Shack are definitely headed for a rematch in Belmont if both are ok according to Motion and Romans.

Ritvo said MMM lost another shoe in the Preakness...looks like they may need to address this issue with him. He also appears on for the belmont.

Astrology and Dialed In look out.

[Spalding No!]

My theory has nothing to do with AK or MMM ... I do not know why you are bringing them or their layoffs into this.

So far your theory involves nothing beyond how many weeks between races a horse has, so I figured those were fair game, especially since they strengthened your argument.

I am simply stating asking a horse to run a career best race in 4 races in an 8 week span is asking an awful lot and is unlikely.

No, you said it would be asinine to even try. It's far different...

Your thought is that since a horse posted a 4f work in 50.8 that he is in top form and ready to run a career best race?!? Agree to disagree i guess...

Didn't say that at all. I said the work "suggests" he is at least still in his previous form, which would have been good enough to be competitive in the Preakness.

Beyer numbers aside, visually do you think Animal Kingdom and Shackleford ran career best races in the Preakness?

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Beyer numbers aside, visually do you think Animal Kingdom and Shackleford ran career best races in the Preakness?

I think Shack definitely ran his best race to date. AK ran I think an equally as good of a race as the derby all things considered with the trip he had. I do not think the quality of his race he ran was any less.

[Producer]

:D He won the Derby and lost the Preakness by a half length. He is lacking in early speed but has GREAT tactical speed. I'm not sure how you can run 1st and 2nd in the first two legs of the TC and have a style that doesn't bode well for dirt.



What makes you think he has great tactical speed? He was back there with Dialed In early in the race in the Preakness. He was midpack in a race ran very slow early in the derby. He came from far back in his races before that. That great tactical speed? I disagree strongly.

Hats off to him. He ran two very good races these past 2. That still doesn't change the fact that coming from far behind doesn't bode well in top class dirt races.

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Point is...for the future of the horse it was absolutely the right move for the horse to keep him out of the preakness and point towards the belmont. Their plan is to run Nehro the rest of this year and end up in the BC classic and the proper way of getting him to that goal is to not over push this horse...simple as that.

[Spalding No!]

I think Shack definitely ran his best race to date.

Let's take this to be true. What made Shackleford, who was defeated by Nehro in the Kentucky Derby, a much better candidate than the latter to run a career best race off only two weeks rest?

[Spalding No!]

Point is...for the future of the horse it was absolutely the right move for the horse to keep him out of the preakness and point towards the belmont. Their plan is to run Nehro the rest of this year and end up in the BC classic and the proper way of getting him to that goal is to not over push this horse...simple as that.

Then why was he pushed to make the Kentucky Derby? Why is he pointing to a grueling and archaic 12f race when the goal is much shorter races?

[OFFandRUNNING10]

The distance isn't the issue at hand...plus he will have had a full 5 weeks off for the belmont. He will be coming back fresh for that. I am sorry but I am not understanding your logic here.

Shackleford was on an entirely different schedule than Nehro...why are you comparing the two in this discussion.

Even Zayat and Asmussen are on record for saying it was to much to ask Nehro to run back in 2 weeks in the preakness after all he has done over the past 6 weeks. If the owner and trainer are even agreeing with this ...why are you fighting it??

[gm10]

think i read he went back to Ireland and wasn't pointed to Belmont

wish he would. Had a ton of horse in the derby and would add to an already good belmont stakes field.

Master Of Hounds is very likely to be in the Belmont starting gate (skipped the Irish Guineas this weekend).

In fact, I think they are quite confident about his chances.

[highnote]

Then why was he pushed to make the Kentucky Derby? Why is he pointing to a grueling and archaic 12f race when the goal is much shorter races?


Given AK's German pedigree, 12f should be well within his genetic potential.

I would point him toward the Travers after the Belmont Stakes. I doubt he can compete with the top horses in the world at the Breeders' Cup, but it may be worth a shot.

[cj]

While Animal Kingdom is a nice animal, I think the Preakness exposed him for all to see. He rode the bias to a win in the Derby, but on a fair track with a pretty hot pace, he couldn't catch a rival that was on the pace. He is a bet against for the foreseeable future.

[Sugar Ron]

Romans is actually considering the Belmont for Shack?????

Wow ... he must still be into the champagne.



If a Forestry colt ever wins that great classic distance contest, it will surely be the final nail in the coffin known as modern thoroughbred racing...

[Spalding No!]

Romans is actually considering the Belmont for Shack?????

Wow ... he must still be into the champagne.



If a Forestry colt ever wins that great classic distance contest, it will surely be the final nail in the coffin known as modern thoroughbred racing...

How about the broodmare?

Oatsee has also dropped the winner of the 10f Alabama for 3yo fillies (Lady Joanne). The sire was Orientate.

[gm10]

While Animal Kingdom is a nice animal, I think the Preakness exposed him for all to see. He rode the bias to a win in the Derby, but on a fair track with a pretty hot pace, he couldn't catch a rival that was on the pace. He is a bet against for the foreseeable future.

Did you say the same about Blame after the Jockey Gold Cup?

[FenceBored]

Did you say the same about Blame after the Jockey Gold Cup?

Why would he have said that? Is 48.74 for 4f, 1:13.24 for 6f and 1:37 for 8f in a 10f race at Belmont anything like a "hot pace?" I think not.

[cj]

Did you say the same about Blame after the Jockey Gold Cup?

Well, I didn't bet him in his only other start if that is what you mean. I don't think the pace of the JCGC was fast in any case, so the point is irrelevant...two completely different scenarios.

[Bruddah]

The question which opened the thread was "Animal Kingdom's future?" I answer, unless he wins the Belmont (which he won't) he will not have any value at stud. Hence no future.

[cj]

The question which opened the thread was "Animal Kingdom's future?" I answer, unless he wins the Belmont (which he won't) he will not have any value at stud. Hence no future.

I don't buy that. The Derby is valued a lot higher than the Belmont win. Look as the stud fees of some Belmont winners that didn't do much else. He also won the Spiral or whatever it is called these days.

[Grits]

Cj, this is a little strong, how can you comfortably determine this when he was beaten by only a half length and he drew post 6 to the inside as opposed to post 16 to the outside in the Derby? Did you read the comments of JV?

While Animal Kingdom is a nice animal, I think the Preakness exposed him for all to see. He rode the bias to a win in the Derby, but on a fair track with a pretty hot pace, he couldn't catch a rival that was on the pace. He is a bet against for the foreseeable future.
From the BloodHorse:
Jockey John Velazquez said he did have to take Animal Kingdom further back than he wanted.
"When I wanted him to go, he got dirt kicked in his face," he said. "So then I had to pull him farther back than I wanted him to be. By the time I had the chance to go, he was coming, but it was too late. He came out of the race great. Unfortunately this is part of the business."
Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/63156/shackleford-tames-animal-kingdom-in-preakness#ixzz1NByFUTYA

[Bruddah]

I don't buy that. The Derby is valued a lot higher than the Belmont win. Look as the stud fees of some Belmont winners that didn't do much else. He also won the Spiral or whatever it is called these days.

You are correct when it comes to importance of one Triple Crown race versus another. That alone will not overcome his Heinz 57 bloodlines. No right thinking owner, of quality mares, will spend the money to breed to him. Therefore, for a few years he will only get mares of much lesser quality. When the foals prove no worth, he won't even get that. This is why I say, he has no future if he doesn't win the Belmont. (which he won't)

[gm10]

Well, I didn't bet him in his only other start if that is what you mean. I don't think the pace of the JCGC was fast in any case, so the point is irrelevant...two completely different scenarios.

I don't think the Preakness was fast, and furthermore Shack was virtually unchallenged throughout. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it's up to the bettor/handicapper to legitimize a winner, and there's no doubt he's a good horse, but I think he ran to his full capacities, whereas AK didn't.
Game of opinions.

[Robert Fischer]

You are correct when it comes to importance of one Triple Crown race versus another. That alone will not overcome his Heinz 57 bloodlines. No right thinking owner, of quality mares, will spend the money to breed to him. Therefore, for a few years he will only get mares of much lesser quality. When the foals prove no worth, he won't even get that. This is why I say, he has no future if he doesn't win the Belmont. (which he won't)

you could be right.

My understanding of breeding(which could be wrong, and I am not a breeder), are that stallions with great stamina and very good bone make excellent brood mare sires. In other words his daughters could be bred to popular quality stallions like bernardini etc...

but then again I thought Hard Spun would become a half decent(less so than Animal Kingdom) broodmare sire, and I am not sure he has exactly set that arena on fire. Could be too early to tell and in several years it he may show some aptitude.

[Bruddah]

you could be right.

My understanding of breeding(which could be wrong, and I am not a breeder), are that stallions with great stamina and very good bone make excellent brood mare sires. In other words his daughters could be bred to popular quality stallions like bernardini etc...

but then again I thought Hard Spun would become a half decent(less so than Animal Kingdom) broodmare sire, and I am not sure he has exactly set that arena on fire. Could be too early to tell and in several years it he may show some aptitude.

There is no right or wrong in these breeding evaluations.(summations) We all try to "think thru" to the correct eventual outcome. Sometimes we're right and sometimes we're wrong. Then sometimes Mother Nature makes all look like the dolts we are. ;)

[OFFandRUNNING10]

I don't buy that. The Derby is valued a lot higher than the Belmont win. Look as the stud fees of some Belmont winners that didn't do much else. He also won the Spiral or whatever it is called these days.

Definitely agree there. I think his breeding value will also highly depend on where they point this horse in the future. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. If they keep him on dirt straight through the breeders cup or if they mix in some turf or synthetic. They have a world of options with this one. If they end up putting him back on grass it opens up a whole other avenue for breeding. Irwin has many connections overseas. I really believe this is a high quality colt. I really can't knock his preakness run. I think he had a mediocre trip that cost him to come up a hair short. I believe he will prove he is of value throughout the remainder of the year.

[Spalding No!]

Shack was virtually unchallenged throughout.

Can you elaborate on this?

[Pell Mell]

You are correct when it comes to importance of one Triple Crown race versus another. That alone will not overcome his Heinz 57 bloodlines. No right thinking owner, of quality mares, will spend the money to breed to him. Therefore, for a few years he will only get mares of much lesser quality. When the foals prove no worth, he won't even get that. This is why I say, he has no future if he doesn't win the Belmont. (which he won't)

With all due respect, you have proven you know nothing about breeding. Animal's sire is a son of Candy Stripes who is totally inbred to Neartic through Nasrullah and Northern Dancer. His dam has Northern Dancer blood on her dam sire line. So where do you get the Heinz 57 bloodlines? The best thing that can be done with inbred horses is to cross them with virtually unrelated horses. With the introduction of the new blood the next right move would be to mate Animal back to a Nearartic mare.

Go to my blog and see how many winners I have picked already this year by pedigree. Out of the first 9 in the Preakness I picked 8 of them.

[Grits]

Cj, this is a little strong, how can you comfortably determine this when he was beaten by only a half length and he drew post 6 to the inside as opposed to post 16 to the outside in the Derby? Did you read the comments of JV?


From the BloodHorse:

Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/63156/shackleford-tames-animal-kingdom-in-preakness#ixzz1NByFUTYA

Cj, scratch this. Damn, I'm still tired from so much handicapping and reading--I'm making costly errors. I'm sorry, AK was in post 11, not 6--as that was Sway Away's post. I noted he may, for the first time, have been taking dirt in his face. More than in the Derby, and this certainly could have accounted for some discomfort for him.

I'm one who liked his sire, Leroidesanimaux, what a turf horse, this one was. And the German influence, too, I feel can't be a faulty thing.

Pell Mell, Nearctic was a favorite, if you can get a copy of his biography, "Dark Horse", by Muriel Lennox, read it. He was quite mismanaged, but he had a heart that was boundless. A great story, one, if not, the best book I've ever read on a racehorse.

[Bruddah]

With all due respect, you have proven you know nothing about breeding. Animal's sire is a son of Candy Stripes who is totally inbred to Neartic through Nasrullah and Northern Dancer. His dam has Northern Dancer blood on her dam sire line. So where do you get the Heinz 57 bloodlines? The best thing that can be done with inbred horses is to cross them with virtually unrelated horses. With the introduction of the new blood the next right move would be to mate Animal back to a Nearartic mare.

Go to my blog and see how many winners I have picked already this year by pedigree. Out of the first 9 in the Preakness I picked 8 of them.


Thanks for your enlightened opinion but I like my chances to being exactly correct, in the long run.

I hope this advertisement for your blog increases readership. :ThmbUp:

[Sugar Ron]

How about the broodmare?

Oatsee has also dropped the winner of the 10f Alabama for 3yo fillies (Lady Joanne). The sire was Orientate.

We'll talk if she ever drops a Belmont winner ... which (hopefully and likely) will never happen if they keep sending her to sprinters like Forestry.

[Spalding No!]

We'll talk if she ever drops a Belmont winner ... which (hopefully and likely) will never happen if they keep sending her to sprinters like Forestry.

Well, I was simply pointing out that Oatsee seems to be a good source of stamina. Unfortunately, she only produces one foal a year.

Nevertheless, looking back to the top lines, Distorted Humor, Northern Afleet, Gone West, Kingmambo, Rich Cream, and Mr. Prospector have all sired Belmont winners in the past 30 years so why would a Belmont winner sired by Forestry, one of the better bred horses of recent times, be such a disagreeable happenstance?

[gm10]

Can you elaborate on this?

0-2F: Runs it in 22.77. Breaks well and speeds off with Flashpoint. The track announcer excitedly announces that the first 2F were run in 22 and 3/5.

2-4F: Sits comfortably in second, running an easy two furlongs in 24.18.

4-6F: Keeps running at a comfortable clip (section of 25.14) and comes next to Flashpoint who is coming under slight pressure.

6-8F: Flashpoint is breathing fire and drops away very quickly. Shack ran 6F in 72 seconds and change, doing no more than tracking an inferior rival who is completely spent and not putting up any fight. This section will go in 25.13 and he is in front of the race, many lengths in front of the best horse. You can't ask for a lot better.

About 2F from home, the jockey looks under his arm, and sees that Dance City is trying to make a move, so Castanon kicks for home. Incidentally, that is exactly at the same time that Astrology is being asked. By responding to Dance City, Castanon inadvertently avoids Astrology taking a slight lead at the rail. Additionally, Astrology just needed to sit and wait for a moment behind Flashpoint before he got a gap. These two things are just part of racing of course but it means that Shack is never truly engaged in a duel.

Strech: Shack is in a full drive. Astrology never gets on terms which he could have done with a bit of luck. Johnnie Velazquez is already thinking of excuses. He was so focused on Dialed In that he didn't pay attention to the clock in his head. Shack comes home in 19.25 which translates into 2F in 25.66. A perfect distribution of energy, reflecting the trip he had.

In summary, he rated beautifully behind some (relatively) cheap speed that was setting perfect fractions, got first run by responding to the wrong horse, and said catch me if you can. The only horse that could catch him under those circumstances had been compromised by his own jockey's tactics.

That is my own, very subjective, view of the race.

[Sugar Ron]

Well, I was simply pointing out that Oatsee seems to be a good source of stamina. Unfortunately, she only produces one foal a year.

Nevertheless, looking back to the top lines, Distorted Humor, Northern Afleet, Gone West, Kingmambo, Rich Cream, and Mr. Prospector have all sired Belmont winners in the past 30 years so why would a Belmont winner sired by Forestry, one of the better bred horses of recent times, be such a disagreeable happenstance?

Luckyford aside, Forestry's best sons to date were middle-distance types.

Not gunna hold my breath waiting for him to sire a Belmont winner...

[Pell Mell]

0-2F: Runs it in 22.77. Breaks well and speeds off with Flashpoint. The track announcer excitedly announces that the first 2F were run in 22 and 3/5.

2-4F: Sits comfortably in second, running an easy two furlongs in 24.18.

4-6F: Keeps running at a comfortable clip (section of 25.14) and comes next to Flashpoint who is coming under slight pressure.

6-8F: Flashpoint is breathing fire and drops away very quickly. Shack ran 6F in 72 seconds and change, doing no more than tracking an inferior rival who is completely spent and not putting up any fight. This section will go in 25.13 and he is in front of the race, many lengths in front of the best horse. You can't ask for a lot better.

About 2F from home, the jockey looks under his arm, and sees that Dance City is trying to make a move, so Castanon kicks for home. Incidentally, that is exactly at the same time that Astrology is being asked. By responding to Dance City, Castanon inadvertently avoids Astrology taking a slight lead at the rail. Additionally, Astrology just needed to sit and wait for a moment behind Flashpoint before he got a gap. These two things are just part of racing of course but it means that Shack is never truly engaged in a duel.

Strech: Shack is in a full drive. Astrology never gets on terms which he could have done with a bit of luck. Johnnie Velazquez is already thinking of excuses. He was so focused on Dialed In that he didn't pay attention to the clock in his head. Shack comes home in 19.25 which translates into 2F in 25.66. A perfect distribution of energy, reflecting the trip he had.

In summary, he rated beautifully behind some (relatively) cheap speed that was setting perfect fractions, got first run by responding to the wrong horse, and said catch me if you can. The only horse that could catch him under those circumstances had been compromised by his own jockey's tactics.

That is my own, very subjective, view of the race.
:ThmbUp:
I agree! And JR's story that AK didn't like dirt being thrown at him I think is a crock. If a horse doesn't like dirt in his face he's not going to run period. How come he was sure coming like hell AND getting dirt in his face when he was asked to run. Does anyone think for one moment that JR would admit he made a mistake in judgement? Not in a millon years. If they ride him back that have to be crazy.:ThmbDown:

[cj]

Cj, this is a little strong, how can you comfortably determine this when he was beaten by only a half length and he drew post 6 to the inside as opposed to post 16 to the outside in the Derby? Did you read the comments of JV?


From the BloodHorse:

Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/63156/shackleford-tames-animal-kingdom-in-preakness#ixzz1NByFUTYA

Honestly, I never listen to jockey speak. They have agendas when they give quotes, and that always comes before the truth.

I'm not saying he isn't a good horse, he is, but he isn't a great one. He won the Derby by 3 lengths or so. But, he did it while aided by what I think was a pretty strong bias and he didn't run particularly fast. Had he won we'd be hearing how he would be a worthy Triple Crown type and I'd have trouble with that.

[elysiantraveller]

Honestly, I never listen to jockey speak. They have agendas when they give quotes, and that always comes before the truth.

I'm not saying he isn't a good horse, he is, but he isn't a great one. He won the Derby by 3 lengths or so. But, he did it while aided by what I think was a pretty strong bias and he didn't run particularly fast. Had he won we'd be hearing how he would be a worthy Triple Crown type and I'd have trouble with that.

Do you think he is more of a turf/synth horse that when he runs on fair dirt with a real dirt pace the kickback is more than likely too much for him to overcome?

Thats my opinion.

Kind of like another horse last November? Very good but not really a dirt horse.

[Robert Fischer]

:ThmbUp:
I agree! And JR's story that AK didn't like dirt being thrown at him I think is a crock. If a horse doesn't like dirt in his face he's not going to run period. How come he was sure coming like hell AND getting dirt in his face when he was asked to run. Does anyone think for one moment that JR would admit he made a mistake in judgement? Not in a millon years. If they ride him back that have to be crazy.:ThmbDown:

the horse takes kickback professionally. He's eaten dirt and carpet fibers and hasn't flinched. JV may have made a move that is generally the right move.

I actually think the error wasn't in that portion. Missing the kickback is fine and maybe wise - but when the fractions slowed it was time to ease up to the group and allow his horse to use a little bit of that tactical speed. Not really much at all considering the pace slowed to a sensible rhythm. Similar to what happened in the Lanes End.

He had a choice to go very wide or run through traffic. I am not sure which was better. I am pretty sure Dialed In would have been 3rd had he gone the overland route.

[Robert Fischer]

Honestly, I never listen to jockey speak. They have agendas when they give quotes, and that always comes before the truth.

I'm not saying he isn't a good horse, he is, but he isn't a great one. He won the Derby by 3 lengths or so. But, he did it while aided by what I think was a pretty strong bias and he didn't run particularly fast. Had he won we'd be hearing how he would be a worthy Triple Crown type and I'd have trouble with that.

Agreed
he is a good horse with some very good stamina and has the versatility to run on all surfaces. He brings a pedigree that could suggest we try to breed to a few more mares with a stamina influence.

I think he is a good sort to compete in our classics.

He's a classic distance horse.

[Pell Mell]

Thanks for your enlightened opinion but I like my chances to being exactly correct, in the long run.

I hope this advertisement for your blog increases readership. :ThmbUp:

For your edification I'm not trying to increase readership. I will explain why I have a blog, not that you would give a shit, but I have a legit reason for it.
I am 78 and have had numerous back operations and go every 6 months, I went today, for steroid injections. I'm in constant pain and can only sit for short periods of time and then must walk around or go lie in bed. It takes me a lot of time to write anything that gets a little lengthy. With the blog I can write a little and save a draft and go back to it at a later date. Sometimes it takes me a week to write a little article. And that's why I have a blog and on the outside chance that anyone wants to read my thoughts on a subject in a little more depth, they can go to my blog. I hope that's OK with you.
I'm not advertising because I'm not selling anything on there. I've never even signed up to have ads placed on it. So your wise ass remark has no validity. :p

[Bruddah]

For your edification I'm not trying to increase readership. I will explain why I have a blog, not that you would give a shit, but I have a legit reason for it.
I am 78 and have had numerous back operations and go every 6 months, I went today, for steroid injections. I'm in constant pain and can only sit for short periods of time and then must walk around or go lie in bed. It takes me a lot of time to write anything that gets a little lengthy. With the blog I can write a little and save a draft and go back to it at a later date. Sometimes it takes me a week to write a little article. And that's why I have a blog and on the outside chance that anyone wants to read my thoughts on a subject in a little more depth, they can go to my blog. I hope that's OK with you.
I'm not advertising because I'm not selling anything on there. I've never even signed up to have ads placed on it. So your wise ass remark has no validity. :p

Truly sorry to hear about your condition and pain. I apologize for having added to your discomfort in any way. Again, thank you for your enlightened thoughts.

Best Regards
Bruddah

[Pell Mell]

Truly sorry to hear about your condition and pain. I apologize for having added to your discomfort in any way. Again, thank you for your enlightened thoughts.

Best Regards
Bruddah

Apology accepted and glad to know your a reasonable person. :ThmbUp:

[Leparoux]

What makes you think he has great tactical speed? He was back there with Dialed In early in the race in the Preakness. He was midpack in a race ran very slow early in the derby. He came from far back in his races before that. That great tactical speed? I disagree strongly.

Hats off to him. He ran two very good races these past 2. That still doesn't change the fact that coming from far behind doesn't bode well in top class dirt races.
I think he has great tactical speed because that's what I see in his races. I disagree that he comes from far behind all the time. He may start near the back but gradually moves up throughout the race with his tactical speed :p

[elysiantraveller]

I think he has great tactical speed because that's what I see in his races. I disagree that he comes from far behind all the time. He may start near the back but gradually moves up throughout the race with his tactical speed :p

Thats a plodder.

[Pell Mell]

Thats a plodder.

The only time he plodded is when JR got on him. In his 1st win he was no more than 1/2 length back in 12 horse field. Next race 5 back at 1st call and 1 back at 2nd call in 11 horse field. In the Spiral 4 back at the 1st call in 11 horse field. In the derby only 6 back at the 1st call. In 2 of his wins he had the lead at the stretch call and was only 1 1/2 back at the stretch call in the derby.

And that's a plodder? Do you read PPs? Did you watch re-runs in slo-mo?

Maybe you need a good optometrist. :bang:

[elysiantraveller]

The only time he plodded is when JR got on him. In his 1st win he was no more than 1/2 length back in 12 horse field. Next race 5 back at 1st call and 1 back at 2nd call in 11 horse field. In the Spiral 4 back at the 1st call in 11 horse field. In the derby only 6 back at the 1st call. In 2 of his wins he had the lead at the stretch call and was only 1 1/2 back at the stretch call in the derby.

And that's a plodder? Do you read PPs? Did you watch re-runs in slo-mo?

Maybe you need a good optometrist. :bang:

Maybe you should learn to read.

www.hookedonphonics.com

Go there, it will help.

I didn't call Animal Kingdom a plodder I pointed out that Leparoux defined at plodder.

[JPinMaryland]

Sorry to hear about Pell Mell's pain but good to see some good sportsmanship on the board. nice to see that :ThmbUp:

Nothing but the best for you.

[Cardus]

For your edification I'm not trying to increase readership. I will explain why I have a blog, not that you would give a shit, but I have a legit reason for it.
I am 78 and have had numerous back operations and go every 6 months, I went today, for steroid injections. I'm in constant pain and can only sit for short periods of time and then must walk around or go lie in bed. It takes me a lot of time to write anything that gets a little lengthy. With the blog I can write a little and save a draft and go back to it at a later date. Sometimes it takes me a week to write a little article. And that's why I have a blog and on the outside chance that anyone wants to read my thoughts on a subject in a little more depth, they can go to my blog. I hope that's OK with you.
I'm not advertising because I'm not selling anything on there. I've never even signed up to have ads placed on it. So your wise ass remark has no validity. :p

This post, combined with his post to Elysian, garners him sympathy?

Funny place, this Internet Land.

It's pathetic when someone tries to back people off by citing a medical condition, and then lays into people anyway.

[Pell Mell]

This post, combined with his post to Elysian, garners him sympathy?

Funny place, this Internet Land.

It's pathetic when someone tries to back people off by citing a medical condition, and then lays into people anyway.

Sorry but I was not looking for sympathy, I was only explaining why I had a blog. As far as the plodder thing, if I confused another post with yours, please accept my apology.:blush:

[Tom]

Almost as pathetic as the trolls who stop by.

[Rackon]

Do you think he is more of a turf/synth horse that when he runs on fair dirt with a real dirt pace the kickback is more than likely too much for him to overcome?

Thats my opinion.

Kind of like another horse last November? Very good but not really a dirt horse.

No. The dirt was not too much for him to overcome.

I think the "kickback" excuse was mainly BS - it maybe surprised the colt for a few strides but it wasn't a major factor IMO. He got plenty Maryland dirt in his face when he came charging through horses on the final turn, he got plenty dirt in the KD, and he was inhaling a veritable cloud of stinging ice cold polytrack fibres at Turfway in the Spiral.

AK just didn't get the trip in the Preakness he got in the KD. A lot of it was pilot error. He also broke a bit slow, not as good as his start in KD. He was considerably farther back than at Churchill as JV erroneously thought the middle panels would be quick, like the hot first quarter - he was wrong, Shack's jock gave him a breather (and all credit to Jesus Castanon for a GREAT ride). JV shoulda let AK move up on the backstretch a bit, as this horse is willing to advance on either the inside or outside paths. JV wasn't as worried about Shackleford as he maybe should have been, as he probably expected Shack to give way at the end like he did in the KD.

In any case, he left AK with way too much to do (unless you're riding that other horse that got beat by inches last November, who was a fine dirt horse BTW). This is the farthest back AK has been in any of his races. Maybe JV, after the KD run was so effortless, thought he was on a winged superstar a la Z. Turned out JV was on a really nice, lightly raced colt, but not pegasus.

If you've looked at AK's lone turf race, where he also had an awkward start but laid fourth off the pace, just missing the win by a short head (going a mile in 1:34 and change); or at his maiden win where he laid second off the pace (and actually led going into the first turn in 23 and 2); or also watched the Spiral, where he advanced steadily on the inside down the backstetch, then you know he doesn't have to be way back. He's got more versatility to him than a horse like Dialed In. Unlike that horse, AK can be asked for some acceleration to improve position at different points in the race, and I would indeed call that tactical speed. He has been farther back in his 2 dirt starts than his ones on turf/poly but those were also large fields. WIth a win and a place in Grade 1s on dirt, I don't think that means AK's a poly specialist.

At Pimlico, AK was slightly compromised by his slow start, not a big deal in itself until it was compounded by JV's miscalculations, plus having to check slightly when encountering a wall of horses (watch the overhead), weaving through those horses to launch his late kick, coming around the turn 4 wide. Any one of those factors going better for him could have made up a length or so. Maybe he didn't like the Pimlico surface as much as CD, but I don't think that was fatal.

Still, the colt tried hard and just missed by half a length; second dirt start, 6th lifetime start, first start with only 2 weeks between races. I thought all considered he ran a heckuva race. AK's record is now 6-4-2-0, with a win and a place in Gr1s - on dirt.

I do suspect AK might be as good or better on turf and would like to see him back on it some time...but there's no glory for future stud potential there, despite his sire's family being pretty versatile. He'll have to do well on dirt to have stud value in the US. Plus, Motion's still got stablemate Pluck for turf. Be interesting to see where AK goes later in the season. I suspect he's still maturing and improving - he may be better later, even at 4. It's unlikely he sticks around that long (gotta make a profit for the partners) but one can always hope. I liked this horse all winter and spring, and I still like him a lot.

I take nothing away from Shackleford, a horse I've liked all through the preps. He hung very tough on a dead rail in the KD and ran his eyeballs out again in Baltimore.

These two colts, although they're completely different, do have in common their tenacity and gameness - they're just about the only two hosses on the TC Trail (another might be Nehro) who always show up. And that's a good thing for us race fans as long as they both stay sound.

[senortout]

Another trend promoting further decline in top class racing:

Top 3yos electing to skip Triple Crown races.

Arguably, Nehro, had he fired a similar effort as his last 3, could have won today's Preakness.

With the inconsistency of this crop, either Animal Kingdom or Shackleford could essentially lock in the 3yo championship with a win in the Belmont Stakes. Both ought to be there assuming good physical condition.

This is far from a trend, and far from setting any sort of precedent, skipping TC races.

The following announcement, made years ago, was shocking, yet understandable, I suppose.





[/url] ("][url="http://articles.latimes.com/print/1985-05-07/news/mn-11105_1_preakness-stakes)[/url]












Spend A Buck to Skip Preakness


[url="http://articles.latimes.com/1985/may/07"]May 07, 1985 (http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?v=20)|Associated Press
Kentucky Derby winner Spend A Buck will not run in the Preakness Stakes, the second race of the Triple Crown series, Pimlico Race Course general manager Chick Lang said today.

Trainer Cam Gambolati told Lang by telephone that the colt will run in the Jersey Derby at Garden State Park on May 27, nine days after the Preakness. Should Spend A Buck win the Jersey Derby, he will earn $600,000, plus a $2-million bonus for winning two other stakes at the track and the Kentucky Derby. A Triple Crown sweep could make Spend A Buck worth up to $40 million in syndication.

[elysiantraveller]

If you buy the fact that there was a negative inside bias affecting the pace in the derby, which a lot people here do, then Animal Kingdom ran essentially the exact same race in the Preakness as he did in the Derby.

A pace in the Derby in the 1:11 neighborhood puts him back 15 lengths and essentially the same setup as he had in the Preakness. This is just simple comparison's between what was widely accepted to be a fair track (Preakness) and an unfair track (Derby).

Hence my point that on a fair surface the kickback is going to always leave Animal Kingdom with a lot of work to do. He certainly can win the Belmont, but at anything between 8-10f on dirt I think he will be exposed as a one run closer.

[elysiantraveller]

I take nothing away from Shackleford, a horse I've liked all through the preps. He hung very tough on a dead rail in the KD and ran his eyeballs out again in Baltimore.

After re-reading your post I don't think we are disagreeing that much.

The point I am making is since the rail was dead in the Derby the pacesetters went abnormally slow through the running of the race attempting to "save" their horses. The difference between a 1:11 pace and a 1:13 pace is the ten lengths difference in Animal Kingdom's position at those calls in their respective races.

I think he ran the same race and that on most fair dirt tracks he is always going to be a victim of pace and horses with tactical speed. Those, disadvantages, however, may not mean much as this crop seems to be pretty bad and he does have some talent.

[Spalding No!]

If you've looked at AK's lone turf race, where he also had an awkward start but laid fourth off the pace, just missing the win by a short head (going a mile in 1:34 and change); or at his maiden win where he laid second off the pace (and actually led going into the first turn in 23 and 2); or also watched the Spiral, where he advanced steadily on the inside down the backstetch, then you know he doesn't have to be way back. He's got more versatility to him than a horse like Dialed In. Unlike that horse, AK can be asked for some acceleration to improve position at different points in the race, and I would indeed call that tactical speed.

Why are his turf and polytrack races relevant to his dirt form?

He has been farther back in his 2 dirt starts than his ones on turf/poly but those were also large fields.

Is this a factor of field size or, more logically, a factor of surface (and the style of pace that goes along with each)?

[Spalding No!]

This is far from a trend, and far from setting any sort of precedent, skipping TC races.

The following announcement, made years ago, was shocking, yet understandable, I suppose.

I appreciate the example, but its a totally different scenario. Spend A Buck was going for a huge bonus. The trend I'm referring to has to do mainly with the spacing of the Triple Crown races.

The Preakness takes the worst of it, and yet ironically, its potentially the most definitive of the 3 races with the Belmont distance an anomaly nowadays and the Derby being run typically at a ferocious pace.

[keithw84]

The Preakness takes the worst of it, and yet ironically, its potentially the most definitive of the 3 races with the Belmont distance an anomaly nowadays and the Derby being run typically at a ferocious pace.

Not to mention the field size of the Derby.

I think of the three races, "the best horse" wins in the Preakness most often. Note that the winner of the Preakness has won divisional honors for the last 10 years straight, and 3 of those have won HOTY.

[Cardus]

Almost as pathetic as the trolls who stop by.

How'd you handle those 30+ hours, Tom?

Really, tell us.