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View Full Version : My Preakness Analysis (Even More Shameless Self Promotion)


PaceAdvantage
05-21-2011, 01:26 AM
Can be found here:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=83460

JustRalph
05-21-2011, 02:04 AM
looks like pretty good logic to me.

The only thing that bothers me is :4: Flashpoint.

I think this guy could make for an interesting pace scenario. This horse could get away if he wants, and I mean get away. If he does that........anything can happen. I am not a Cornholio Velazguez on speed fan.......... who the hell knows what he is going to let happen......... :4: Flashpoint has been working like a Demon possessed. If the track stays kind to speed ? He might uncork a big lead and stop like a dog in the stretch, then again he might go on ? This is going to be a jocks race if you ask me.

If the odds are high enough, I am going to have to throw a few bucks on :4: and :7: as live longshots. Gotta give :7: Midnight Interlude one more chance, I think he got overwhelmed by that huge field in the Derby and hopefully can come back and run a decent race.

Otherwise, I think you have posted some solid logic.

lamboguy
05-21-2011, 03:47 AM
i am going to bet ANIMAL KINGDOM to win. and then box him with DIALED IN. ANIMAL KINGDOM should be better than in the prior race, and i am trusting ZITO with DIALED IN. if DIALED IN does not make a good account of himself, ZITO should hand in his trainer's license within 5 minutes after the race.

PICSIX
05-21-2011, 03:57 AM
i am going to bet ANIMAL KINGDOM to win. and then box him with DIALED IN. ANIMAL KINGDOM should be better than in the prior race, and i am trusting ZITO with DIALED IN. if DIALED IN does not make a good account of himself, ZITO should hand in his trainer's license within 5 minutes after the race.

I believe Dialed In will have too much work to do trying to close on this heavily speed biased strip. I think the winner will be gate to wire!

Good luck today! :ThmbUp:

gm10
05-21-2011, 04:11 AM
After a slow Derby, and with so much quality pace in the race, I would be very surprised if the winner doesn't come from a little way back in the field.

I think Animal Kingdom is a sharp horse, probably even a superior horse, and the most likely thing that can get him beat are jockey tactics.

Dialed In has a chance, but the one button he has, needs to be pushed at the right time, and the jockey must hope he's not too far behind at that point.

Dance City ran an admirable Arkansas Derby and must be considered in the exotics as a First Dude kind of horse.

I'm also throwing in King Congie because he was bothered at the start but finished well in the Blue Grass; synthetic to dirt is not a bad angle during the Classic season.

1. Animal Kingdom
2. Dance City
3. King Congie
4. Dialed In

fmhealth
05-21-2011, 06:26 AM
I'm sticking with KING CONGIE. AK went TURF to SYNTH to DIRT to win the Derby. KC has traveled the identical path & is the only entry coming directly off a synth race. Last year First Dude was going synth to dirt & ran a big one.

At 20-1 I believe he's in with a shot!

Plain Steve
05-21-2011, 07:12 AM
Can be found here:

http://www.paceadvantage.com

Actually not shameless self-promotion but some very insightful analysis. I was about to bail on Shack, but after reading that I'll have to, at the very least, throw in a saver on him, and an exacta with Dance City. Thanks for the effort, and for sharing it.

NYPlayer
05-21-2011, 08:27 AM
I like some of the new players in this:

:1: Astrology - has good post position, is fresh, has competitive sheet numbers and is trained by one of the best.

:6: Sway Away - had a much improved effort in the Ark Derby. He's very competitive here.

:9: Mucho Macho Man - I think he's the best horse coming out of Louisville. A very consistent horse on the Rag Sheets.

:11: Animal Kingdom - His real chances in here are about 6/1. A big jump up performance in the Derby, but in my opinion has more to prove in order to be king of the jungle.

:8: Dance City - An improving horse from the Pletcher barn. Could improve to take this.

Good Luck to all connections and players. This promises be an interesting race.

Jingle
05-21-2011, 08:29 AM
I like 11-5-4 with the 3-9. I'll bet to win on whoever has value of the 11-5-4 and then a few exactas & tri's adding the 3-9.

Example--$1-exacta 11-5-4/3-9 and then 3-9/11-5-4.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL.

Mike--good analysis.

Bubbles
05-21-2011, 08:52 AM
My two cents:

Animal Kingdom's going to be tough. I think he wins, with the predictable Derby returnees (MMM, Dialed In) close behind him. However, there are two potential party-crashers who I wouldn't throw off deep exotics tickets.

Flashpoint's Hutcheson was very, VERY good. Likewise, his FLA Derby, where he bounced, was very, VERY mediocre. Wesley Ward connects with 29% of new arrivals, and I think he's well-meant at a 20-1 ML price (steep for one of just five graded-stakes winners in the field).

Concealed Identity looks a lot like Icabad Crane did a few years ago. On pure talent, he's a cut below the rest, but he loves this surface and has the right running style to do well. He's a right-place, right-time horse who gets a pilot that knows his way around Pimlico, and if he can overcome the post, 30-1 looks like a big overlay.

Bruddah
05-21-2011, 08:55 AM
I agree with your analysis, especially on Shackelford. I wasn't impressed at first, until I looked at his front running splits in the Derby.

start to 2f...23.24 official
2f to 4f ...25.39 official
4f to 6f ...24.77 official
6f to 8f ...24.09 official
8f to 10f ...25.30 unofficial (my timing) beaten by apprx. 3.75 lgths.

If you watch the replay, he didn't lose the lead until after he had run 1m 3/16. Meanwhile his largest lead was 1 1/2 lgths between 2f-4f . He had pressure on his flanks the entire trip. All this was on track favoring closers.

Question ? Today will be his 5th race after a layoff. Is he due to bounce? If so, I look for the next best (fresh) speed horse to steal the race. (JMHO)

pondman
05-21-2011, 09:43 AM
Can be found here:

http://www.paceadvantage.com

Shackelford is a definite contender. You'll get +10-1. I'll include Shackelford and Mucho in a tri box. But I don't think Animal has any value; I don't believe the derby was prep quality. I'll include Flashpoint to up the tri value play.

jognlope
05-21-2011, 09:46 AM
I'm going to play that, plus 29 other of my useless 10 centers. I have this feeling about Shackelford and Sway Away. Dance City looks like a little pistol with his long forelock.

amorta35
05-21-2011, 09:48 AM
seems like a lock that Mucho Macho Man will win this race after the real life Macho Man Randy Savage has passed away...Go MACHO....OH YEEEAAAAA!

PhantomOnTour
05-21-2011, 09:56 AM
I loved Shack in the Derby, but i think he duels and fades here to finish out of the top 3. Just can't see him taking care of Flashpoint and possibly a few other in close attendance, and then holding Animal Kingdom, Dialed In and the other late runners.
He had better be one sharp colt.

Grits
05-21-2011, 10:09 AM
Good look to everyone today. May you cash many and may they all come back safely.

In order of post position:

1 Astrology: never OTM, fresh, 28 days off, 3 L/O, very unusual to see one of Asmussen's go 6F in 1:12.2

4 Flashpoint: fresh, 48 days off

5 Shackleford

8 Dance City: never OTM, fresh, 35 days off, 3 L/O

9 MachoMuchoMan: Concerns, could toss, drifted in Derby

11 Animal Kingdom

All will be used in boxes including dime super, have been nailed too many times wheeling, nothing angers me more!!!
Want AK to win. Will put back up with W/P bets on 1-Astrology and 4-Flashpoint.

garyscpa
05-21-2011, 11:37 AM
Good look to everyone today. May you cash many and may they all come back safely.

In order of post position:

1 Astrology: never OTM, fresh, 28 days off, 3 L/O, very unusual to see one of Asmussen's go 6F in 1:12.2

4 Flashpoint: fresh, 48 days off

5 Shackleford

8 Dance City: never OTM, fresh, 35 days off, 3 L/O

9 MachoMuchoMan: Concerns, could toss, drifted in Derby

11 Animal Kingdom

All will be used in boxes including dime super, have been nailed too many times wheeling, nothing angers me more!!!
Want AK to win. Will put back up with W/P bets on 1-Astrology and 4-Flashpoint.

Replace Animal Kingdom with Mr. Commons and we have the same bet. :ThmbUp:

PaceAdvantage
05-21-2011, 12:08 PM
I don't think Flashpoint's connections are going to want to get into a tussle with Shackleford early. I just don't see it happening.

Is Flashpoint capable of running with Shack early? No doubt. They are both about the same when it comes to front running speed.

However, I think there are more distance question marks surrounding Flashpoint than there are with Shackleford.

And let's not forget, Shackleford ran Flashpoint off his feet and dusted him in the Florida Derby.

Unless Flashpoint goes out on a suicide mission, I don't think Shackleford has anything to fear from that one.

The speed I most fear is Dance City.

Bubbles
05-21-2011, 12:55 PM
PA, I see what you're saying, but couldn't you also argue that Flashpoint bounced in his third career start off a 102 Beyer at second asking? I'm not sure Flashpoint can win, but as one of five graded stakes-winners in this field with the second-highest Beyer in the race behind Animal Kingdom, I think leaving him off exotics tickets at 20-1 ML odds is risky.

You're right in that if the Flashpoint that ran fourth in the FLA Derby shows up, he won't be a factor, but my guess is you'll see a better one today. Here's hoping I'm right.

jk3521
05-21-2011, 01:22 PM
Play 10 and 11 in the win, show and fourth places in supers with 1,2,3,6,8,9 in the place/show positions and a saver on 10-11 Exacta box. Need either one to finish 3rd or 4th to make any money. Of course either one or both could run out ,too.

PICSIX
05-21-2011, 02:11 PM
I don't think Flashpoint's connections are going to want to get into a tussle with Shackleford early. I just don't see it happening.

Is Flashpoint capable of running with Shack early? No doubt. They are both about the same when it comes to front running speed.

However, I think there are more distance question marks surrounding Flashpoint than there are with Shackleford.

And let's not forget, Shackleford ran Flashpoint off his feet and dusted him in the Florida Derby.

Unless Flashpoint goes out on a suicide mission, I don't think Shackleford has anything to fear from that one.

The speed I most fear is Dance City.

It was reported, on HRTV, that the connections of Flashpoint are definitely sending and want the front. The connections, also, claimed that he is not head strong in his works and can actually be held with only the exercise rider's little fingers (implying he can get to the lead and settle).

If Dance City can rate off of Flash & Shack he will be tough to beat.

Full disclosure....I haven't even been close with my selections, so far, today. :blush:

Good Luck,

Mike

jognlope
05-21-2011, 02:13 PM
You have to make at least a $1 bet with 10 cent superfector, such as wheel or box it.

Blenheim
05-21-2011, 03:00 PM
Your analysis is a good one.

As I have read on this forum we are not in this to pick winners, we are in this to make money. Three to one is a good bet offering a fair return and last I read horses going off at 3/1 win 70% of the time.

From what I have read at Brisnet and from the data you have posted, playing a horse on or near the lead on this speed favoring track is a good bet. I pulled this post from a different forum and written by "Wrongly": Pace - past 25 - Wire to Wire 4, Stalkers 10, Closer 9, Deep closer 1 (Curlin after a terrible start was 15 lengths back).

I thought your analysis might have touched on how early pace stress may cause the front runners to fade in deep stretch and if so, who will likely pick up the pieces. Other than that I wish you best of racing luck and hopefully Shackelford will get a relatively easy lead - if he does, it'll make for a great race! It'll be interesting to see if he can wire em!

I'm taking a shot with Astrology at 15/1. Ran a lifetime best in his last, almost a month freshening, a strong racing speed 6fl breeze and another good 5fl work, both at CD - it appears he is likely to improve. He gets post position :1:, last I read that post position is winning at a :2::4: % clip, he'll be able to save ground while stalking the front speed - with a little bit of racing luck he should be able to get through to go get me some mony!

Once again, best of racing luck.

hugh
05-21-2011, 03:32 PM
I don't see any value with AK today...
Still like 3M and ..... Astrology (alot of folks are staying away due to all the hype surrounding the poll (curse) in the derby)... This is a TOTALLY different race.
Good luck today!!;)

Tom
05-21-2011, 04:23 PM
I see a filed of crappy horses who can't put together anything resembling a racing career.

I have of respect for a single one of them - they are third rate horses.

The rest of the card is awesome and very playable - why waste time on the crappiest race on the card. I'll be cooking hots on the grill when this nonsense runs. Need nourishment for Evd tonight.

GaryG
05-21-2011, 04:37 PM
Dance City on top for me with AK, Shack and Mucho underneath

lamboguy
05-21-2011, 04:40 PM
3-1 on the kentucky derby winner is value in spades

depalma113
05-21-2011, 04:41 PM
Animal Kingdom - He was much the best in Kentucky and should be much the best today.

That being said, the Triple Crown doesn't pay my bills. He will be in all spots on my tickets just like Louisville.

Exacta:
10,11,13 / 1,6,7,9,10,11,13

$.50 Trifecta:
10,11,13 / 10,11,13 / 1,6,7,9,10,11,13

$.50 Trifecta:
10,11,13 / 1, 6, 7, 9, 10 , 11, 13 / 10, 11, 13

$.10 Super
10,11,13 / 10, 11, 13 / 1, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13 / 1, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13

$.10 Super
10,11,13 / 1, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13 / 10, 11, 13 / 1, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13

$.10 Super
10,11,13 / 1, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13 / 1, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13 / 10, 11, 13

PaceAdvantage
05-21-2011, 04:52 PM
3-1 on the kentucky derby winner is value in spadesIt's value, but only slightly... ;) ...I have him at 5-2 on my value line.

lamboguy
05-21-2011, 05:00 PM
It's value, but only slightly... ;) ...I have him at 5-2 on my value line.the overlay certainly doesn't take care of the takeout!

very smart post though

lamboguy
05-21-2011, 05:09 PM
numeyer just interviewed ZITO, and he did nothing but give him a cupcake interview. he didn't ask him why the horse didn't work, ZITO said that he felt he had the best horse and nothing has changed.

i hope mucho runs good for ritvo, but i bet the animal for third looking for $3.00

Cratos
05-21-2011, 05:20 PM
I am going back with Baffert’s horse, Midnight Interlude especially after Baffert made a jockey change. My top choices for the Preakness are as follows:

Midnight Interlude – Jockey change should help and a lively pace would set him up nicely.

Animal Kingdom – There isn’t anything to knock about this horse except the Derby was run in a way that benefited this horse; I don’t think the Preakness will be run that way.

Mucho Macho Man – He came from far out of it in the Derby and he might be rolling on the end if the upfront speed sets the race up for him.

Nehro – This horse like Mucho Macho Man might be a factor late.

PhantomOnTour
05-21-2011, 05:25 PM
The Official PhantomOnTour Preakness Play:

TRI:
:8: :11:
:1: :6: :8: :11:
:1: :3: :6: :8: :10: :11:

EX:
:8: :11:
:1: :6: :8: :11:

WIN:
:8:

Dance City is my main horse.
Will surely punch out a few 10cent supers using King Congie liberally in 2nd 3rd and 4th
Good luck y'all :ThmbUp:

ArlJim78
05-21-2011, 05:27 PM
Nehro – This horse like Mucho Macho Man might be a factor late.

Don't wait too long for Nehro, he's not running today.

Tom
05-21-2011, 05:30 PM
Don't wait too long for Nehro, he's not running today.

He will be a VERY late factor....like three weeks late in the Belmont!

Alright, as long as I'm here, I did the race in Val4 for kicks and the favorites sucked in it.

So I'll take a 4 horse box :3::6::8::9: for a fin.

:3::6::8::9::13: for a tri

depalma113
05-21-2011, 05:45 PM
Damn no $.50 Trifectas, had to make them $1 tris instead.

newtothegame
05-21-2011, 05:46 PM
I am gonna take a shot at the .10 super...
2,5,7,8,11

keying 3 in all four spots with the other five if that makes sense lol.

ticket will look like
a/bcdef/bcdef/bcdef
bcdef/a/bcdef/bcdef
bcdef/bcdef/a/bcdef
bcdef/bcdef/bcdef/a

I am so thinking I should not be reading THASKALOS super thread lol

PaceAdvantage
05-21-2011, 06:04 PM
Why do they keep harping on NBC how they think today's Preakness is going to be a much more wicked pace than the Derby?

There were more speed horses in the Derby than there are today in the Preakness. I thought the Derby was packed with speed, and we all saw what happened there...

I'm not sure how the connections of Flashpoint think they can win this on the lead...the big question mark to me is Dance City...will he or won't he be looking for the front?

PaceAdvantage
05-21-2011, 06:12 PM
I will be betting more than one horse to win in this race...

Shackleford, Sway Away and Dance City are all bets based on my line...

menifee
05-21-2011, 06:13 PM
$5 tri 11-9-ALL
$5 tril 11-ALL-9

Tee
05-21-2011, 06:21 PM
Shackleford getting a bit warm?

Dance City running his race behind the gate.


Good luck everyone!!

PaceAdvantage
05-21-2011, 06:24 PM
That's what I'm freakin' talking about!!!!

This horse rocks...washed out and all...

Tom
05-21-2011, 06:25 PM
Nice call, PA....$$$$

depalma113
05-21-2011, 06:26 PM
Congrats on the score.

That pace was wicked.

PhantomOnTour
05-21-2011, 06:26 PM
Good job Pace...he truly is one gritty sumbitch :ThmbUp:

newtothegame
05-21-2011, 06:26 PM
nice call Mike!!!

Mineshaft
05-21-2011, 06:27 PM
he set fast fractions and still held on

boogazie
05-21-2011, 06:27 PM
Nice call and thank you! Your analysis convinced me to put him in my tri tickets :)

lamboguy
05-21-2011, 06:29 PM
dear mike, you are the class of the industry.

raybo
05-21-2011, 06:34 PM
Nice analysis Mike, looks like AK needed that extra sixteenth today. Ran a lot like the derby except the pace was a faster one early.

PaceAdvantage
05-21-2011, 06:35 PM
I was watching the gallop out....AK never passed Shackleford...I don't think he would have caught him even at 10 furlongs...maybe the track was carrying him home, or maybe Shackleford improved yet again today...quite possible given it was only his fifth start of the year...

fiveouttasix
05-21-2011, 06:35 PM
Pace..Thank You...I included Shackleford in my super only after reading your analysis! Great Job!

bcgreg
05-21-2011, 06:36 PM
Nice call PA...very nice!

bcgreg

RaceBookJoe
05-21-2011, 06:36 PM
Nice call Mike...unfortunately i threw out Astrology, blew my super out of the water....next year i guess :) rbj

jimk849
05-21-2011, 06:38 PM
You da man. I wish I was a lot better at detecting a bias and then being able to use it to my favor next time out. Super job congrats.

thaskalos
05-21-2011, 06:42 PM
PA...

That's showing us who is "boss"...:ThmbUp:

gm10
05-21-2011, 06:43 PM
Shackleford is the one horse I left out of all my bets and it cost me many KK in lost profits as I had all the other top 5 horses.

I only saw the race once, but it looks like Velazquez was too focused on Dialed In, or maybe he was trying to pull a Zenyatta (race 20).

Nice call.

cj
05-21-2011, 06:46 PM
Nice job PA. Many thought the pace was slow for the Derby. I never believed that for a second. I'm glad to see you thought likewise.

raybo
05-21-2011, 06:46 PM
The Belmont should be very interesting! Nehro, if he runs, might be fresh enough to take that one.

This race took a lot out of both Shack and AK.

tribecaagent
05-21-2011, 06:48 PM
PA, I give credit where credit is due; your opinion has been stellar.
Ver nice work

PaceAdvantage
05-21-2011, 06:48 PM
Nice job PA. Many thought the pace was slow for the Derby. I never believed that for a second. I'm glad to see you thought likewise.Actually, I was brainwashed into thinking it was slow, but I put more weight on the bias that I was seeing at Churchill that day, plus the speed favoring nature of Pimlico yesterday.

Only when I was looking at the race again earlier today (after I wrote my analysis) did I see by your numbers that the pace really wasn't slow at all. That gave me even more confidence in Shack...

Aerocraft67
05-21-2011, 06:49 PM
Only redboarding to say thanks for the analysis. I took Shackleford and Dance City to win (no need to dutch them at nearly the same odds). Put me up for the day after getting my butt handed to me by the undercard. I liked the early running style, speed, and class for the price on :5:, and also liked the upside and outside post of :8:. It was certainly logical to use the closers running into the speed, but they were expensive. None of the public handicappers I looked at were on Shackleford—might not have had the fortitude to do it without your piece. Well done, and thanks again.

Steve 'StatMan'
05-21-2011, 06:56 PM
Congrats on that Exacta Mike/PA! I thought Animal Kingdom would do it, but thought the most likely one to beat him would be Shackelford. That saver exacta helped me better than if AK had won!

fmhealth
05-21-2011, 07:15 PM
Magnificent analysis PA. I believe you did the same last year in one of the TC races. I'm impressed!!

098poi
05-21-2011, 07:17 PM
Nice job PA. You put it front and center after putting it front and center in the Derby and well you know. (That's not a put down but a compliment)
I had to go to my nephews college graduation which was at Skidmore (Saratoga Springs) and made it about 3 miles from my home north of Boston in time to listen to the race on Sirius in my car. I thought either Midnight Interlude or Animal Kingdom would win but did not wager having had such a profitable Derby experience (not). I thought I didn't care about this race but was surprised how bad I felt when AK lost by half a length. Just goes to show there's more to this game than numbers!:ThmbUp:

Midnight Cruiser
05-21-2011, 07:17 PM
Nice job on nailin the Preakness PA. You were right on the money. I had 11 dollars to win on the Shack and hit the Pik3 for 29 bucks. I can go to Outback tonite!!

Mailman
05-21-2011, 07:20 PM
Thanks PA!! Nice job!

5k-claim
05-21-2011, 07:37 PM
That was an excellent analysis on the homepage by PaceAdvantage.... congratulations!!

Personally, I didn't know who to pick. But I rarely do.

:ThmbUp:
.

Bubbles
05-21-2011, 07:45 PM
Nice hit, PA! Well done; thought Shackelford had no chance given how washed out he was, but he ran huge. Thought AK may have had him in the lane when he changed leads and veered in, but he corrected himself and got home.

Good one, boss! :ThmbUp:

riskman
05-21-2011, 07:51 PM
Nice analysis on the Preakness. Shackleford ran a gutsy race putting away Flashpoint on the final turn with Animal Kingdom closing fast but could not get past Shackleford. Never thought that AK was the real deal but proved otherwise as I thought he was a fluke in the Derby. Again, you did a great job.

Robert Fischer
05-21-2011, 07:55 PM
you crushed them.

I cancelled a couple overlayed exactas with Dance City after pre-race inspection, but he still finished up there. Have to watch his trip again.

garyscpa
05-21-2011, 08:09 PM
I think Grits made a nice hit, too.

surfdog89
05-21-2011, 08:18 PM
GREAT JOB PACE.....WELL DONE~~~```

Blenheim
05-21-2011, 08:30 PM
Congrats, fine piece of handicapping.

Gotta think the nature of the racetrack surface made all of the difference.

Interesting the :5: went off at such juicy odds. I had the :1: horse and no doubt he was sittin' sweet throughout and he got the perfect trip. When came the top of the stretch and he got to the :5: horse, I though he was goin' to run on to go get my mony! He just didn't have it, maybe a dead rail, maybe it just wasn't in the stars. Astrology should be tough to beat next time out.

Lookin' forward to your Belmont Stakes analysis.

Once again, congrats.

Casino
05-21-2011, 08:45 PM
PA hats off to a very nice hit!Shackleford earned it and he was best today.Treat yourself to a nice steak dinner.

PA did you ever think about a feature race analysis just on weekends on the home page.

PaceAdvantage
05-21-2011, 09:08 PM
PA did you ever think about a feature race analysis just on weekends on the home page.Would love to do a lot more, but as of now, there aren't enough hours in the day... :lol:

Blenheim
05-21-2011, 09:31 PM
Would love to do a lot more, but as of now, there aren't enough hours in the day... :lol:

Excellent idea.

If you keep it simple, it shouldn't take that much time. I would be a fun and interesting learning tool for us seeking that needed extra advantage. Give it some thought as a weekly feature race analysis may increase participation. If it takes too much time, maybe you could alternate the analysis with different members . . .

Beachbabe
05-21-2011, 09:39 PM
Nice handicapping, boss-man.

:ThmbUp:

thaskalos
05-21-2011, 09:41 PM
Would love to do a lot more, but as of now, there aren't enough hours in the day... :lol:
Would you change your mind if we promised to cut you in for a percentage of our profits? :)

Tom
05-21-2011, 10:00 PM
I think we need to change the name of this website to more accurately reflect the in-your face handicapping acumen of our leader......his take no prisoners skills sound more like.......:eek:

Exotic1
05-21-2011, 11:03 PM
And the beat goes on; another ice cold TC exacta by PA.

Great betting and analysis.

Grits
05-21-2011, 11:17 PM
I think Grits made a nice hit, too.

Garyspca, thank you, you're kind. AK and Shackleford were my obvious ones, didn't bother to comment on them. I did threw out MMM, as I noted I'd possibly do, didn't like him. No superfecta, I didn't use Dialed In. This race, along with others made for a good day. Didn't wager anything until race 6, still it was a long day, and a long drive home. Very tired. Thanks, again.:ThmbUp:

gm10
05-22-2011, 04:35 AM
Split times

22.69 24.18 25.14 25.21 19.25

Looks like a falsely run race. Quick start but then the horses near the lead got a serious breather which made it difficult to come from the back.

TheBid9
05-22-2011, 07:49 AM
Very sound handicapping logic, PA. Nice bias analysis and a "gutsy" call. Congrats on a job well done.

pandy
05-22-2011, 08:08 AM
Pace, that was a very good analysis.

I felt that Shackleford and Dance City would get stalking trips but went with Dance City. I was surprised that so many people had a knock on Shackleford's Derby, like it's easy to go wire to wire in a GR1 at 10 furlongs. And decisions can't be based on one race anyway. Shackleford's Florida Derby was giant. Here was my analysis as it appeared on my website.

DANCE CITY attended a lively pace in the key race Arkansas Derby and held gamely for the show; he picks up Dominguez in the Preakness, is on an improving pattern. Dance City also fits my Method B secret longshot pattern, and he has a longshot "paired up" pattern...DIALED IN earned a Kick Rating of 123 in the Derby, very strong. He broke slow, which he has done in the past, and was far behind a slow pace but he was flying late. With a better break and a faster pace, which seems likely, he is dangerous in the stretch...ANIMAL KINGDOM had never raced on dirt prior to the Derby but he certainly proved he can handle it, closing from 12th off a slow pace and he galloped out well which is a great sign; he has an excellent distance pedigree so if he wins this race I think he wins the triple crown...SHACKLEFORD set a slow pace in the Derby but the track appeared to favor closers that day and this horse is a fighter. With the presence of speedy Flashpoint in this race, Shackleford may get a stalking trip this time.

Capper Al
05-22-2011, 08:25 AM
Like everyone else said, nice call. Keep them coming!

GARY Z
05-22-2011, 09:21 AM
Great Pick, PA.

I had your next 4 picks boxed in exactas, tri's supers, and convinced my
office these were the live horses based upon "value" bets.


I tried to cancel Sway Away when he arrived at the gate washed out, and
was looking to substitute Dance City/Midnight interlude into the super.,but
was blocked.


Ps , the owners of "S" pick up a bonus of 500k. for the win.


Great day for Mr Romans, who also won with Paddy O' Prado.

Plain Steve
05-22-2011, 09:22 AM
Congrats on a job well done Pace, and thanks for sharing your wisdom.

pktruckdriver
05-22-2011, 10:06 AM
:jump::jump::jump::jump: Bossman is the Man :jump::jump::jump::jump::jump:

Robert Goren
05-22-2011, 11:07 AM
:jump::jump::jump::jump: Bossman is the Man :jump::jump::jump::jump::jump:Pace "The Man" Advantage. It does have nice ring to it. Move over Stan Musial .Congrats on some very fine analysis.

NWCTBob
05-22-2011, 11:22 AM
Great Pick, PA.

I had your next 4 picks boxed in exactas, tri's supers, and convinced my
office these were the live horses based upon "value" bets.


I tried to cancel Sway Away when he arrived at the gate washed out, and
was looking to substitute Dance City/Midnight interlude into the super.,but
was blocked.


Ps , the owners of "S" pick up a bonus of 500k. for the win.


Great day for Mr Romans, who also won with Paddy O' Prado.
Midnight Interlude, another disappointment race, now this for sure tells me the caliber of Calif. 3yo to the east.

FantasticDan
05-22-2011, 11:37 AM
Beyer: A worthy Triple Crown aspirant should have caught Shack:

http://www.drf.com/news/preakness-shackleford-proves-gutsier-more-talented-rivals

mostpost
05-22-2011, 12:43 PM
I liked Animal Kingdom with Dialed in or Mucho Macho Man, but your analysis got me looking at Shackleford. In the end I went with Animal Kingdom to win and a $5 exacta box AK with Shack.

Light
05-22-2011, 01:31 PM
PA

Congrats on having the winner but I have to point out something in your track bias analysis that I don't agree with.

You were right about the closers bias at CD,but your speed bias analysis at PIM is dubious. On the front page you said:

Let's look at where the winners were on dirt after a half-mile in each race at Pimlico yesterday:

First, First, First, Second, Second, Fourth, Fourth

The firsts and seconds were all sprints and the two fourths were routes and that is why I disagree with your analysis. There was no speed bias in routes at PIM.

My point is the analysis for Shackleford's win should be based more on his gameness against CD's closer biased surface than a pseudo speed bias at PIM. He only finished 1 length behind Nehro in the biased KD while shortening up at Pim. Even on Preakness day,the 3 dirt routes had the winners at 7th,5th and 4th at the 1/2 mile call (your method),so there really was no bias in routes that day as well. The reason Shackleford won is he is a very underrated, very game horse on the front end who does not need a bias and didn't have one.But good call.

PaceAdvantage
05-22-2011, 02:53 PM
Thanks Light...I think... :lol:

PaceAdvantage
05-22-2011, 02:54 PM
Thanks for all the kind words in this thread...they're much appreciated...

thaskalos
05-22-2011, 03:05 PM
Thanks for all the kind words in this thread...they're much appreciated...
Let's see what you come up with for the Belmont Stakes. After the Preakness...our expectations have risen considerably...:)

Tom
05-22-2011, 04:48 PM
Good point Thask....Belmont is his home track. I am looking for at least a $40 winner next time. ;)

Blenheim
05-22-2011, 08:21 PM
PA

Congrats on having the winner but I have to point out something in your track bias analysis that I don't agree with.

You were right about the closers bias at CD,but your speed bias analysis at PIM is dubious. On the front page you said:



The firsts and seconds were all sprints and the two fourths were routes and that is why I disagree with your analysis. There was no speed bias in routes at PIM.

My point is the analysis for Shackleford's win should be based more on his gameness against CD's closer biased surface than a pseudo speed bias at PIM. He only finished 1 length behind Nehro in the biased KD while shortening up at Pim. Even on Preakness day,the 3 dirt routes had the winners at 7th,5th and 4th at the 1/2 mile call (your method),so there really was no bias in routes that day as well. The reason Shackleford won is he is a very underrated, very game horse on the front end who does not need a bias and didn't have one.But good call.

Interesting and fine piece of research.

How can we know if the 7th, 5th and 4th races at the 1/2 call were faster than normal? Wouldn't that tell us if the track was playing fast for routes?

Blenheim
05-22-2011, 11:30 PM
I took another look at the data here and this is what I found at Brisnet Track Bias Stats:

Pimlico

Week Totals - 5/13 - 5/19

Dirt Routes

Races 11
% Wire 36%
Run style: E++ - % races won: 64%
Run style: E/P+ - % races won: 18%
Run style: S - % races won: 18

Winner Average Beaten lengths: 1st call 1.6 - 2nd call 1.4

JustRalph
05-23-2011, 12:12 AM
I took another look at the data here and this is what I found at Brisnet Track Bias Stats:

Pimlico

Week Totals - 5/13 - 5/19

Dirt Routes

Races 11
% Wire 36%
Run style: E++ - % races won: 64%
Run style: E/P+ - % races won: 18%
Run style: S - % races won: 18

Winner Average Beaten lengths: 1st call 1.6 - 2nd call 1.4

there's a ton of crap races in that group. I show a bias exists, but not as pronounced as that listed above. I noticed that in the cheaper races they were coming back more often......... just like it should be

Light
05-23-2011, 12:20 AM
Interesting and fine piece of research.

How can we know if the 7th, 5th and 4th races at the 1/2 call were faster than normal? Wouldn't that tell us if the track was playing fast for routes?

You misunderstood. I'll start over. On Preakness day there were 3 other routes run before the Preakness that were on dirt.The races were:

2nd race. The winner was 7th,nine lengths back at the 1/2 mile point.

4th race. The winner was 5th,seven lengths back at the 1/2 mile point

10th race. The winner was 4th, 2 1/2 lengths back at the 1/2 mile point.

If anything,there was a closers bias in routes on dirt that day. This suggests that should Shackleford really get a speed biased track,he'd win by double digits.

overthehill
05-23-2011, 12:27 AM
Good call. I didnt play the race but I did not think the derby field was that good. Clearly the others were even worse. With 20/20 hindsight the logical play was to box AK and Shackleford as being the two best horses coming out of the derby. If there were no new superstars coming out of the field they figured to run 1-2 and they did. That was a terrific exacta payout for a very logical outcome.

toetoe
05-23-2011, 12:35 AM
Superb pick, PA. PRN would rate it a solid 10. :ThmbUp:

I was slightly queered on the winner by Steve Crist's KD postmortem. (:Wiping egg from face.) Also, a pro here in Las Vegas swayed me with the explanation that the Florida Derby paceline was all about post position. I accurately predicted that on Preakness Day Flashpoint would outsprint Shackleford early, but the former soiled the bed.

RXB
05-23-2011, 12:43 AM
I accurately predicted that on Preakness Day Flashpoint would outsprint Shackleford early, but the former soiled the bed.

The former is bred through and through to be a pure sprinter, and the sooner his connections get real on this point and return him to races of 7f or shorter, the sooner he can start performing well again.

JustRalph
05-23-2011, 12:53 AM
Superb pick, PA. PRN would rate it a solid 10. :ThmbUp:

I was slightly queered on the winner by Steve Crist's KD postmortem. (:Wiping egg from face.) Also, a pro here in Las Vegas swayed me with the explanation that the Florida Derby paceline was all about post position. I accurately predicted that on Preakness Day Flashpoint would outsprint Shackleford early, but the former soiled the bed.

queered ? Really? I like it!! :ThmbUp:

Hey, just for a little balance............ PA YOU SUCK!

cj
05-23-2011, 08:37 AM
You misunderstood. I'll start over. On Preakness day there were 3 other routes run before the Preakness that were on dirt.The races were:

2nd race. The winner was 7th,nine lengths back at the 1/2 mile point.

4th race. The winner was 5th,seven lengths back at the 1/2 mile point

10th race. The winner was 4th, 2 1/2 lengths back at the 1/2 mile point.

If anything,there was a closers bias in routes on dirt that day. This suggests that should Shackleford really get a speed biased track,he'd win by double digits.

That is fine, but he posted the analysis before the card started.

Grits
05-23-2011, 09:59 AM
It's Monday a.m. 8 pages, and 100+ post later. PA, you did do well, "you da man" and all. My picks were ignored, obviously. Yet, its the only post on this board that included: Saturday's winner, the exacta, and the tri.
Believe me, I've checked every folder, every post here. I wouldn't be typing this had I not, and I've known this since very late Saturday night.

The race included new runners, fresh ones that I included for a purpose in my handicapping. I anticipated Flashpoint, a fresh horse, going straight for the lead and Shack being able to sit just off of him. (He did.) I also felt Animal Kingdom would run his race; hoped too, he'd win it. (He didn't.) I wasn't betting him to win it at a short price. (I liked him better when I won with him at his bigger price Derby Day.) Astrology, Asmussen's entry, also on my tickets, was another fresh horse, and too, 3rd off the layoff. And, by AP Indy, bred to run all day. As I noted, he'd worked in 1:12, one of which was two works back preparing for THIS race. The last Asmussen entry working this fast that I can recall? Rachel Alexandra. His horses generally don't go this fast in the a.m. Ever, and I know this.

I stated concern about MMM. Throw him out? Yep, sure did. Upon seeing FlashPoint, did I bet him to win? Nope, got cold about the distance; still, he remained on the ticket as did Dance City. I bet the LOGICAL front runner at generous odds instead. SHACK to win/place. Also bet Astrology to win/place as I said I would--have done this many times in large fields.

Using 5 horses, like PA, all were boxed, no wheeling, its cost me money, as I said. "One has to spend money to make money" particularly big days.

While you all have been high fiving PA since they crossed the wire, and as always discussing PACE, adding to it your own software, algorithms, empirical data and proven methods, one can give out the "whole deal", with only her Bris sheets and a short explanation prior to leaving for the nearest OTB, 1 1/2 hours away--and be dismissed completely.

I did well with Saturday's race card. And, I did well, here, before I left home.
There's an old saying, "if you can't run with the big dogs, stay on the porch." Gentlemen, I'm sorry, but I believe I lead all of you--off the porch.

Thanks for reading; nothing more to add.

posted at 10:09 a.m. Saturday, Preakness Day
Good look to everyone today. May you cash many and may they all come back safely.

In order of post position:

1 Astrology: never OTM, fresh, 28 days off, 3 L/O, very unusual to see one of Asmussen's go 6F in 1:12.2

4 Flashpoint: fresh, 48 days off

5 Shackleford

8 Dance City: never OTM, fresh, 35 days off, 3 L/O

9 MachoMuchoMan: Concerns, could toss, drifted in Derby

11 Animal Kingdom

All will be used in boxes including dime super, have been nailed too many times wheeling, nothing angers me more!!!
Want AK to win. Will put back up with W/P bets on 1-Astrology and 4-Flashpoint.

maddog42
05-23-2011, 10:53 AM
It's Monday a.m. 8 pages, and 100+ post later. PA, you did do well, "you da man" and all. My picks were ignored, obviously. Yet, its the only post on this board that included: Saturday's winner, the exacta, and the tri.
Believe me, I've checked every folder, every post here. I wouldn't be typing this had I not, and I've known this since very late Saturday night.

The race included new runners, fresh ones that I included for a purpose in my handicapping. I anticipated Flashpoint, a fresh horse, going straight for the lead and Shack being able to sit just off of him. (He did.) I also felt Animal Kingdom would run his race; hoped too, he'd win it. (He didn't.) I wasn't betting him to win it at a short price. (I liked him better when I won with him at his bigger price Derby Day.) Astrology, Asmussen's entry, also on my tickets, was another fresh horse, and too, 3rd off the layoff. And, by AP Indy, bred to run all day. As I noted, he'd worked in 1:12, one of which was two works back preparing for THIS race. The last Asmussen entry working this fast that I can recall? Rachel Alexandra. His horses generally don't go this fast in the a.m. Ever, and I know this.

I stated concern about MMM. Throw him out? Yep, sure did. Upon seeing FlashPoint, did I bet him to win? Nope, got cold about the distance; still, he remained on the ticket as did Dance City. I bet the LOGICAL front runner at generous odds instead. SHACK to win/place. Also bet Astrology to win/place as I said I would--have done this many times in large fields.

Using 5 horses, like PA, all were boxed, no wheeling, its cost me money, as I said. "One has to spend money to make money" particularly big days.

While you all have been high fiving PA since they crossed the wire, and as always discussing PACE, adding to it your own software, algorithms, empirical data and proven methods, one can give out the "whole deal", with only her Bris sheets and a short explanation prior to leaving for the nearest OTB, 1 1/2 hours away--and be dismissed completely.

I did well with Saturday's race card. And, I did well, here, before I left home.
There's an old saying, "if you can't run with the big dogs, stay on the porch." Gentlemen, I'm sorry, but I believe I lead all of you--off the porch.

Thanks for reading; nothing more to add.

[/b]

Grits Congrats.
You certainly did better than 99% of posters here, me included. I didn't read all of your posts, so you may have picked Shackelford outright somewhere, but based on this Post I believe PA edge you by a nose. He came right out and picked Shackelford to win. You did nail the tri. so maybe that is tougher? I don't know. Either way you two did better than anybody. Anyhow
congrats.
PS I have always said women are smarter than men. There are not enough women handicappers.

Light
05-23-2011, 11:01 AM
That is fine, but he posted the analysis before the card started.

I was trying to clarify something to Blenheim. That wasn't my main argument. Read post #94 more carefully. PA's analysis was based on there being a speed bias. The day that PA used for his analysis also had a closers bias in dirt routes. There was a speed bias that day but only in dirt sprints and they were all 6f's only.

JustRalph
05-23-2011, 11:07 AM
Get em DJ!!
:lol:

maddog42
05-23-2011, 11:23 AM
looks like pretty good logic to me.

The only thing that bothers me is :4: Flashpoint.

I think this guy could make for an interesting pace scenario. This horse could get away if he wants, and I mean get away. If he does that........anything can happen. I am not a Cornholio Velazguez on speed fan.......... who the hell knows what he is going to let happen......... :4: Flashpoint has been working like a Demon possessed. If the track stays kind to speed ? He might uncork a big lead and stop like a dog in the stretch, then again he might go on ? This is going to be a jocks race if you ask me.

If the odds are high enough, I am going to have to throw a few bucks on :4: and :7: as live longshots. Gotta give :7: Midnight Interlude one more chance, I think he got overwhelmed by that huge field in the Derby and hopefully can come back and run a decent race.

Otherwise, I think you have posted some solid logic.

Ralph you are the funniest right winger I have ever known. Hilarious!!!!
Cornholio Velazguez . lol

cj
05-23-2011, 11:28 AM
I was trying to clarify something to Blenheim. That wasn't my main argument. Read post #94 more carefully. PA's analysis was based on there being a speed bias. The day that PA used for his analysis also had a closers bias in dirt routes. There was a speed bias that day but only in dirt sprints and they were all 6f's only.

That is fine, but bias in the eye of the beholder. Two routes the previous day may or may not be enough to draw a conclusion and it makes sense to try to use the sprints.

Personally, I don't think Friday was biased towards speed, so I agree with you, but I'm not going to say I know for sure I'm right. To just use finishing position as you did to indicate the lack of a route bias is dubious at best.

JustRalph
05-23-2011, 11:36 AM
Ralph you are the funniest right winger I have ever known. Hilarious!!!!
Cornholio Velazguez . lol

Thanks, I think? :lol:

maddog42
05-23-2011, 11:46 AM
Thanks, I think? :lol:

Yeah, I am ex-hippie lifestyle liberal fiscal conservative somewhere in center I think.

Grits
05-23-2011, 11:58 AM
and stop like a dog in the stretch

Ralph--the chart said almost your exact words, it just didn't go on to add, "like a dog." I guess the chartcaller didn't have your colorful way with words, enjoys a paycheck, and may not have wanted a pink slip and his butt handed to him.:lol:

Maddog, no PA did best me, he did. That was my only post, just the 1 on page 2. As far as women handicappers, when one works and doesn't post picks often, its tough being ignored--even a dog needs a pat on the head, now and then.

So, its water under the bridge now. On to the next race.

tubesockshakur
05-23-2011, 11:59 AM
I don't think Flashpoint's connections are going to want to get into a tussle with Shackleford early. I just don't see it happening.

Is Flashpoint capable of running with Shack early? No doubt. They are both about the same when it comes to front running speed.

However, I think there are more distance question marks surrounding Flashpoint than there are with Shackleford.

And let's not forget, Shackleford ran Flashpoint off his feet and dusted him in the Florida Derby.

Unless Flashpoint goes out on a suicide mission, I don't think Shackleford has anything to fear from that one.

The speed I most fear is Dance City.

spot on.... good job :ThmbUp:

maddog42
05-23-2011, 12:16 PM
Ralph--the chart said almost your exact words, it just didn't go on to add, "like a dog." I guess the chartcaller didn't have your colorful way with words, enjoys a paycheck, and may not have wanted a pink slip and his butt handed to him.:lol:

Maddog, no PA did best me, he did. That was my only post, just the 1 on page 2. As far as women handicappers, when one works and doesn't post picks often, its tough being ignored--even a dog needs a pat on the head, now and then.

So, its water under the bridge now. On to the next race.

Good Doggie. Nice Doggie. Sorry not very politically correct. Your post was well taken. I am in awe of anyone who can pick tri''s. I also enjoyed your superfecta post on Thaskalos thread. I had read that many years ago, and forgotten about it. Most of what Thaskalos said was in that thread, but I was enjoying Thaskalos and his contrarian use of it. I myself have a low hit rate
extremely high mutuel. Unfortunately most of my high odds horses place or show or worse. I have been casting an envious eye on people who can pick tri's suoers or exacta's for that matter. I don't seem to have the knack for it.
I would also like to apologise for some of my rudeness on the other thread.

Grits
05-23-2011, 12:57 PM
Maddog, the man that taught me this game is a WIN bettor, he's been playing it for 50 years, he's 69 now. When he began, there were no exotics like we know today. Over the years, he learned and played every gimmick there is including the pic 6. He could key, wheel, and call bets out faster than anyone I know. For a long time now, he has been back to his original game of playing only to WIN. The other bets, beyond win and the double, in his mind and his longtime experience, are moneyburners that will eat one alive, particularly the trifecta.

A lot of this, of course, he maintains has to do with the bettor and what their head can handle. Because of the way I've been taught, I can count on 6 fingers the number of times I've bet a trifecta recently. A .10 superfecta, that's different, I like to play them when I find it inviting. They make me smile, A LOT. Less going out, more coming back. :lol: I enjoyed Thask's thread, too.

Blenheim
05-23-2011, 01:23 PM
I was trying to clarify something to Blenheim. That wasn't my main argument. Read post #94 more carefully. PA's analysis was based on there being a speed bias. The day that PA used for his analysis also had a closers bias in dirt routes. There was a speed bias that day but only in dirt sprints and they were all 6f's only.

Thanks for clearing that up.

The track stats are for the week - so the average for the routes over the course of the week indicates a bias. It would be interesting to know which is more reliable, the data for the day, or the data for the week.
~
With respect to the bias for the day. In the races listed, I do understand the horses were nine, seven and two lengths back at the 1/2 call. How do we know the nine, seven, and two lengths back represents a bias? Were those nine, seven, and two lengths back faster than par, at par or below par? Isn't it the case that only if we know par at that call we can know if a bias existed?

raybo
05-23-2011, 01:49 PM
Thanks for clearing that up.

The track stats are for the week - so the average for the routes over the course of the week indicates a bias. It would be interesting to know which is more reliable, the data for the day, or the data for the week.
~
With respect to the bias for the day. In the races listed, I do understand the horses were nine, seven and two lengths back at the 1/2 call. How do we know the nine, seven, and two lengths back represents a bias? Were those nine, seven, and two lengths back faster than par, at par or below par? Isn't it the case that only if we know par at that call we can know if a bias existed?

Take this as you wish, pro or con, but I'm just coming at you from my own experiences.

IMO, bias, and the determination of bias that is valid, would require a very complex process. One would have to take into account running styles of all horses that ran. Breaking them out by running style, distance, surface, etc., one could then make a more accurate estimation of any bias that may have been present, during that period of time.

Simply using the half mile or 2nd call as the basis for the determination would seem to me to be severely limiting for such an analysis. The 2nd call may or may not tell you anything about an existing bias, as many closers are many lengths back at that point of call and still go on to win or be "close" at the wire. Saying that the majority of winners at the 2nd call were a certain number of lengths back, seems to me to be too general to be of much use.

I would think the stretch call would yield more valid data, because it has been my experience that, when a track is running normally, about 80% of all the winners come from the top 4 horses at the stretch call.

When that stretch call position doesn't produce something close to that percentage of winners, then the track is not running normally, and either a high percentage of runners were deep closers, or a bias existed.

JustRalph
05-23-2011, 04:56 PM
even a dog needs a pat on the head, now and then.



ok,.........I was going to pat you someplace else though...........

PaceAdvantage
05-23-2011, 08:27 PM
Nice going grits. I didn't mean to steal your thunder my dear... :lol:

You can have your revenge this summer at the spa...

Grits
05-23-2011, 09:03 PM
Nice going grits. I didn't mean to steal your thunder my dear... :lol:

You can have your revenge this summer at the spa...

No, I don't do revenge--we team up, then we make MO' MONEY.:lol: :) :lol:

Ralph, you can pat me all you want; I know how much you LOVE your girl. ;)

Blenheim
05-23-2011, 09:17 PM
Take this as you wish, pro or con, but I'm just coming at you from my own experiences.

IMO, bias, and the determination of bias that is valid, would require a very complex process. One would have to take into account running styles of all horses that ran. Breaking them out by running style, distance, surface, etc., one could then make a more accurate estimation of any bias that may have been present, during that period of time.

Simply using the half mile or 2nd call as the basis for the determination would seem to me to be severely limiting for such an analysis. The 2nd call may or may not tell you anything about an existing bias, as many closers are many lengths back at that point of call and still go on to win or be "close" at the wire. Saying that the majority of winners at the 2nd call were a certain number of lengths back, seems to me to be too general to be of much use.

I would think the stretch call would yield more valid data, because it has been my experience that, when a track is running normally, about 80% of all the winners come from the top 4 horses at the stretch call.

When that stretch call position doesn't produce something close to that percentage of winners, then the track is not running normally, and either a high percentage of runners were deep closers, or a bias existed.

Interesting idea that it is the stretch call that indicates whether or not a bias exists.

No doubt and agreed it is likely true that "when a track is running normally, about 80% of all the winners come from the top 4 horses at the stretch call." Only thing is . . . how many track are running normally? When you use the term "normally" what precisely do you mean? The track either aids or inhibits the natural running ability of the horse, or the track can be considered neutral, neither aiding or hindering the natural running ability.

On some days at some tracks the first horse to reach the half-mile marker is a cinch to arrive at the finish no worse than second, on other days the horses w/early speed will fade and there will be days when the best horse wins, regardless of the surface or running style. In the case of the Preakness Stakes, Light contends the best horse won while some contend the surface aided the natural running ability of the horse. Tough to know fer' sure, but in my opinion, if Shackelford was the best horse he would have overcame the bias at Churchill Downs. I figure he caught a track favorable to his running style in the Preakness.

What is your opinion of the Brisnet Track Bias Stats? Do you consider them useful and applicable?

Pimlico
Week Totals - 5/13 - 5/19
Dirt Routes
Races 11
% Wire 36%
Run style: E++ - % races won: 64%
Run style: E/P+ - % races won: 18%
Run style: S - % races won: 18

Jay Trotter
05-23-2011, 09:23 PM
Congrats Grits & Mike!

Just catching up on the posts -- how come I didn't get a PA SPECIAL TWEET ALERT on this play? Gotta use the technology man.

These types of posts are the best and should be a prerequisite for anyone posting in the SELECTIONS FORUM. This is how we learn -- by example.

Top notch :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

raybo
05-23-2011, 10:46 PM
Interesting idea that it is the stretch call that indicates whether or not a bias exists.

No doubt and agreed it is likely true that "when a track is running normally, about 80% of all the winners come from the top 4 horses at the stretch call." Only thing is . . . how many track are running normally? When you use the term "normally" what precisely do you mean? The track either aids or inhibits the natural running ability of the horse, or the track can be considered neutral, neither aiding or hindering the natural running ability.

On some days at some tracks the first horse to reach the half-mile marker is a cinch to arrive at the finish no worse than second, on other days the horses w/early speed will fade and there will be days when the best horse wins, regardless of the surface or running style. In the case of the Preakness Stakes, Light contends the best horse won while some contend the surface aided the natural running ability of the horse. Tough to know fer' sure, but in my opinion, if Shackelford was the best horse he would have overcame the bias at Churchill Downs. I figure he caught a track favorable to his running style in the Preakness.

What is your opinion of the Brisnet Track Bias Stats? Do you consider them useful and applicable?

Pimlico
Week Totals - 5/13 - 5/19
Dirt Routes
Races 11
% Wire 36%
Run style: E++ - % races won: 64%
Run style: E/P+ - % races won: 18%
Run style: S - % races won: 18

"Normally" means the way a particular track runs most of the time. Whether or not a track has a surface that is considered fast or slow really has not much to do with the fact that, by the stretch call, most of the winners have put themselves in position to win. Remember, a fast or slow surface is felt by all horses running, and despite that, the 80% figure is still the norm.

This cannot be measured in lengths behind, IMO, position is more important than distance behind. The fact that the majority of the time 80%+- of the winners are in the top 4 positions at the stretch call should tell us that the number of lengths isn't as important as position. When days happen where chaos reigns, look at the stretch call positions and you'll see that much less than 80% of the winners were in the top 4. Some of that can be attributed to contentious fields, but most cards don't contain enough of these contentious fields to lower that 80% figure, much.

Bris' track bias data, I'm sure, has some degree of impact on how players wager, and maybe there is a degree of validity there, regarding track bias, but I personally would not bet a dime, hinged on that data.

We all know that early horses win more than pressers or closers, not because they are superior horses, but because they can run their own race more frequently, and they don't have the added difficulty of fighting traffic, squeezing through disappearing holes, dodging veering horses, or losing their momentum because a horse blocks it's chosen path, etc..

Giving me a figure of 64% winners with an "E" running style tells me nothing about the quality of the runners, or that the track had a fast bias, or where, on the track that supposed bias exists, etc.. All it tells me is that early horses have more of an advantage, in the majority of races, than late horses. Do you look at the fields in those races to see if there were less credible pressers and closers, the week before? Probably not, and neither does Bris. They just put the data out there and you're supposed to decide if it has any merit.

So many handicappers are looking for something quick and easy, well here's something quick and easy, if 80% +- of the winners are coming from the top 4 at the stretch call, then don't worry about any bias. If they aren't then you better find out why, or choose another track.

Cardus
05-23-2011, 11:40 PM
It's Monday a.m. 8 pages, and 100+ post later. PA, you did do well, "you da man" and all. My picks were ignored, obviously. Yet, its the only post on this board that included: Saturday's winner, the exacta, and the tri.
Believe me, I've checked every folder, every post here. I wouldn't be typing this had I not, and I've known this since very late Saturday night.

The race included new runners, fresh ones that I included for a purpose in my handicapping. I anticipated Flashpoint, a fresh horse, going straight for the lead and Shack being able to sit just off of him. (He did.) I also felt Animal Kingdom would run his race; hoped too, he'd win it. (He didn't.) I wasn't betting him to win it at a short price. (I liked him better when I won with him at his bigger price Derby Day.) Astrology, Asmussen's entry, also on my tickets, was another fresh horse, and too, 3rd off the layoff. And, by AP Indy, bred to run all day. As I noted, he'd worked in 1:12, one of which was two works back preparing for THIS race. The last Asmussen entry working this fast that I can recall? Rachel Alexandra. His horses generally don't go this fast in the a.m. Ever, and I know this.

I stated concern about MMM. Throw him out? Yep, sure did. Upon seeing FlashPoint, did I bet him to win? Nope, got cold about the distance; still, he remained on the ticket as did Dance City. I bet the LOGICAL front runner at generous odds instead. SHACK to win/place. Also bet Astrology to win/place as I said I would--have done this many times in large fields.

Using 5 horses, like PA, all were boxed, no wheeling, its cost me money, as I said. "One has to spend money to make money" particularly big days.

While you all have been high fiving PA since they crossed the wire, and as always discussing PACE, adding to it your own software, algorithms, empirical data and proven methods, one can give out the "whole deal", with only her Bris sheets and a short explanation prior to leaving for the nearest OTB, 1 1/2 hours away--and be dismissed completely.

I did well with Saturday's race card. And, I did well, here, before I left home.
There's an old saying, "if you can't run with the big dogs, stay on the porch." Gentlemen, I'm sorry, but I believe I lead all of you--off the porch.

Thanks for reading; nothing more to add.

Quote:

Originally Posted by grits

posted at 10:09 a.m. Saturday, Preakness Day
Good look to everyone today. May you cash many and may they all come back safely.

In order of post position:

1 Astrology: never OTM, fresh, 28 days off, 3 L/O, very unusual to see one of Asmussen's go 6F in 1:12.2

4 Flashpoint: fresh, 48 days off

5 Shackleford

8 Dance City: never OTM, fresh, 35 days off, 3 L/O

9 MachoMuchoMan: Concerns, could toss, drifted in Derby

11 Animal Kingdom

All will be used in boxes including dime super, have been nailed too many times wheeling, nothing angers me more!!!
Want AK to win. Will put back up with W/P bets on 1-Astrology and 4-Flashpoint.

Some stuff here doesn't add up, and certainly no reason to spotlight yourself, based upon the above, which comes from your post.

You list six horses to box in the exacta, triple and dime superfecta, not five. There are no comments next to Shackleford, the race winner.

You place Shackleford in your quoted post, but there is no mention of betting him to win or place in the Saturday morning post.

You might have a win bet on Animal Kingdom, but certainly dutched win and place bets with Astrology and Flashpoint, according to your Saturday morning post. Neither ticket cashed.

Sure, your Saturday morning post includes the winner, exacta, and triple. You listed six horses. In my mind, I did the same.

Going by what you posted here, why did you need to spotlight yourself as if you did something wonderful? You listed nearly half the field in your Saturday morning post, and quoted that post to illustrate your success in the race, though you mentioned a different scenario in your celebration lap.

Grits
05-24-2011, 05:52 AM
Cardus, check your messages.

BeatTheChalk
05-24-2011, 02:37 PM
[QUOTE=PaceAdvantage]Can be found here:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=83460[/QUOTE

PA : AAA ++++ More later - Just a super fantastic call.

Blenheim
05-27-2011, 08:54 PM
"Normally" means the way a particular track runs most of the time. Whether or not a track has a surface that is considered fast or slow really has not much to do with the fact that, by the stretch call, most of the winners have put themselves in position to win. Remember, a fast or slow surface is felt by all horses running, and despite that, the 80% figure is still the norm.

This cannot be measured in lengths behind, IMO, position is more important than distance behind. The fact that the majority of the time 80%+- of the winners are in the top 4 positions at the stretch call should tell us that the number of lengths isn't as important as position. When days happen where chaos reigns, look at the stretch call positions and you'll see that much less than 80% of the winners were in the top 4. Some of that can be attributed to contentious fields, but most cards don't contain enough of these contentious fields to lower that 80% figure, much.

Bris' track bias data, I'm sure, has some degree of impact on how players wager, and maybe there is a degree of validity there, regarding track bias, but I personally would not bet a dime, hinged on that data.

We all know that early horses win more than pressers or closers, not because they are superior horses, but because they can run their own race more frequently, and they don't have the added difficulty of fighting traffic, squeezing through disappearing holes, dodging veering horses, or losing their momentum because a horse blocks it's chosen path, etc..

Giving me a figure of 64% winners with an "E" running style tells me nothing about the quality of the runners, or that the track had a fast bias, or where, on the track that supposed bias exists, etc.. All it tells me is that early horses have more of an advantage, in the majority of races, than late horses. Do you look at the fields in those races to see if there were less credible pressers and closers, the week before? Probably not, and neither does Bris. They just put the data out there and you're supposed to decide if it has any merit.

So many handicappers are looking for something quick and easy, well here's something quick and easy, if 80% +- of the winners are coming from the top 4 at the stretch call, then don't worry about any bias. If they aren't then you better find out why, or choose another track.

One would think "normally" or "normal" would mean the track neither aids speed or closers, a neutral track - in this case for this discussion "normal" will mean the way a track runs most of the time (I'll get back to this later). And it is likely true that 80% winners are in the top four positions come the top of the stretch. I say the nature of the racetrack surface has an effect on how they get in the first four positions

In your second paragraph you seem the use the terms "position" and "lengths behind" interchangeably. When I think of position, I'm thinkin' three wide, in tight, outside and clear or well back. You write, "position is more important than distance behind" you then go on to write, " ... 80%+- of the winners are in the top 4 positions at the stretch call should tell us that the number of lengths isn't as important as position." How does "position" differ from "distance behind?"

With respect to the Brisnet Track Bias Stats, the data indicated E and E/P types were winning 90% of the time - hard to overlook the 90%. Early running style had an IV of 1.67, E/P had an IV of 1.27 while the Sustained running style had an IV of 0.93%. Early speed had an advantage and when early speed got out front it won indicating a racetrack surface aiding front running ability. From what I've read Pimlico is a track "normally" favoring speed - why would anyone favor a Sustained runner - not only would such a runner have to beat the other 13 horses he would also have to overcome the bias while doing so. As it turned out those E and E/P types ran first and third. Of course, the numbers only have the meaning one gives them.

Back to what is considered normal. If a normal surface at Pimlico aids speed it was no surprise Schackelford performed well. If a normal surface at Belmont Park aids sustained, speed suffers. I haven't seen the past performances nor have I seen the Belmont Track Bias Stats, but if the racetrack surface has a direct effect on the outcome of a race, and I believe it does, the Preakness winner runs up the track in the Belmont.

raybo
05-27-2011, 10:06 PM
"Position" in this case means running order, the top 4 horses at the stretch call, regardless of lengths ahead or behind.

I think most will agree that a fast surface is less tiring than a slow surface. Speed horses, on a fast surface, theoretically, should be able to expend less energy early, thus leaving more energy for the final run. The opposite, theoretically, would seem to be true, that a slow surface requires more energy early thus negating some of his/her remaining energy reserves, which might mean he/she gets caught inside the 1/16th pole.

I'm sure someone will post objections to this thesis, but I could care less. What I know, from experience, is that when I look at the previous day's results and the 1st couple of races today, if the winner isn't coming from the top 4 positions at the stretch, primarily, then, either, there were better sustained horses running, or there is a late bias, for any of several reasons.

I tend to pass more races in that case than normal.

pandy
05-27-2011, 10:07 PM
I doubt Shackleford will run in the Belmont, it just doesn't make sense to run him in that race. Belmont is a sustained track but Shackleford is good enough to win over a sustained track, if the distance is right for him.

raybo
05-27-2011, 10:13 PM
I doubt Shackleford will run in the Belmont, it just doesn't make sense to run him in that race. Belmont is a sustained track but Shackleford is good enough to win over a sustained track, if the distance is right for him.

I really think that what the trainer/owner decide will hinge on how the horse takes to the track, his physical condition, and, what competition he will be facing. Much will probably depend on how he likes the surface. Belmont is quite different from CD or Pim.

If he feels good, takes to the track, and they think he can win, I believe they will run him. One more notch on his "futures" value belt.

My personal opinion, if he does run? He fades in the stretch.